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Market Discussions

 
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Observation of resources prices over past year
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Adriaan Agrenzel
Doomheim
#1 - 2017-05-21 11:12:53 UTC
It seems to me the market is experiencing deflation. As far as I know, everything is player driven and I couldn't put my finger on it, but is there really an oversupply of resources for the market to go down like this.

Then I noticed there are buyers paying exorbitant prices at certain outpost, as if they being starved from those resources, like Veldspar.

I'm new to the game, any tips would be appreciated.
Bjorn Tyrson
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#2 - 2017-05-21 21:03:54 UTC
Yes there is a massive oversupply due to the rorqual changes earlier this year. (the nerf was too little too late and it will take quite some time for stockpiles to start drying up and reverse the trend)

as for the exorbitant prices. 99.99% chance its a scam of some sort.
Skorpynekomimi
#3 - 2017-05-21 23:25:07 UTC
The problem I'm seeing is that stuff's being sold below the cost of manufacture. Someone is unloading serious stocks of consumables.

Economic PVP
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#4 - 2017-05-22 08:31:58 UTC
Skorpynekomimi wrote:
The problem I'm seeing is that stuff's being sold below the cost of manufacture. Someone is unloading serious stocks of consumables.



Always happens on some items.

I bought a bunch of Megathrons recently for profitable resale. Sold most of them, but got stuck with three that wouldn't sell. Needed liquidity to take up better opportunities so I sold the last ones at a loss.

At no point in that trading exercise did I check the exact amount that a Megathron cost to build.

There's lots of market actors like me, many of them dealing with far larger sums than the twenty battleships I'm using as an example.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Do Little
Bluenose Trading
#5 - 2017-05-22 10:22:03 UTC
If you look at the consumer price index (CPI) you'll see that except for a bump in 2012, the Eve economy has been experiencing deflation since 2005.

http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/72084/1/9d_economy.indices.png

We produce way more than we destroy

http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/72084/1/0_produced.vs.destroyed.png

so - too many goods chasing too few customers. I'm actually amazed the economy is as resilient as it is!
Gregorius Goldstein
Queens of the Drone Age
#6 - 2017-05-22 12:22:36 UTC
Do Little wrote:



We produce way more than we destroy




Yes, but you have to factor in all the stuff that is lost because players don't log in anymore or stuff that is stuck in Null-stations.
Scialt
Corporate Navy Police Force
Sleep Reapers
#7 - 2017-05-22 13:26:57 UTC
Another impact is the fact that NPC's drop stuff as well as giving bounties.

That stuff isn't player manufactured... so the baseline price for the player selling that item is the value of the materials they'd get from refining the item as opposed to the cost of manufacture. It makes their calculation of profit different than the person manufacturing the item.

As a side note, I've heard that CCP intends to make T1 meta modules manufacturable by players and then eventually remove item drops from rats (perhaps replacing them with some sort of raw material for manufacturing). That will be a huge impact on markets if/when it happens. Many station trading strategies take into account the people collecting loot who want to just sell their crap off rather than deal with the market. If those drops stop happening, the dynamics of station trading will be very different.
Tipa Riot
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2017-05-22 13:54:17 UTC
They already did for capital modules. I'm very much in favor of a change like that. This will also help making T1 subcapital modules useful (as a resource for meta).

I'm my own NPC alt.
Exaido
Fire Over Light
Astral Alliance
#9 - 2017-05-22 18:56:17 UTC
Scialt wrote:
Many station trading strategies take into account the people collecting loot who want to just sell their crap off rather than deal with the market. If those drops stop happening, the dynamics of station trading will be very different.


^^ This. It's easy to buy under market on people dumping loot sales and accepting very low prices on things for a portion of market trading strategies.
Scialt
Corporate Navy Police Force
Sleep Reapers
#10 - 2017-05-22 19:07:42 UTC
Exaido wrote:
Scialt wrote:
Many station trading strategies take into account the people collecting loot who want to just sell their crap off rather than deal with the market. If those drops stop happening, the dynamics of station trading will be very different.


^^ This. It's easy to buy under market on people dumping loot sales and accepting very low prices on things for a portion of market trading strategies.


yes... and it's even easier when you're doing it with meta items that can't be manufactured. Those gaps in buy/sell order prices last a lot longer because a manufacturer can't make 10,000 units and take advantage of a price discrepancy.

I have a feeling that I'll probably quite station trading shortly after NPC's stop dropping modules. I'm sure it can still be very profitable... but it feels like it will become a much more active endeavor than my current "update prices every other day" method. The flip side is that it may open up T1 manufacturing of a lot of items that aren't profitable now... which is a good thing. I'm not necessarily against quicker responding markets and prices that more closely track manufacturing costs... but it might make that middle-man station trading spot less profitable and move my game play away from it.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#11 - 2017-05-23 08:17:47 UTC
Exaido wrote:
Scialt wrote:
Many station trading strategies take into account the people collecting loot who want to just sell their crap off rather than deal with the market. If those drops stop happening, the dynamics of station trading will be very different.


^^ This. It's easy to buy under market on people dumping loot sales and accepting very low prices on things for a portion of market trading strategies.



There's lots of player-made items that get sold off like that too.

Example: Modulated Strip Miner II.

These are acquired in large quantities by gankers (and the odd non-ganker that loots a mining ship wreck).

Generally these people are looking to sell them fast, and aren't concerned with getting max value. They usually don't know the build cost on the module, let alone care about it.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Scialt
Corporate Navy Police Force
Sleep Reapers
#12 - 2017-05-24 16:02:35 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Exaido wrote:
Scialt wrote:
Many station trading strategies take into account the people collecting loot who want to just sell their crap off rather than deal with the market. If those drops stop happening, the dynamics of station trading will be very different.


^^ This. It's easy to buy under market on people dumping loot sales and accepting very low prices on things for a portion of market trading strategies.



There's lots of player-made items that get sold off like that too.

Example: Modulated Strip Miner II.

These are acquired in large quantities by gankers (and the odd non-ganker that loots a mining ship wreck).

Generally these people are looking to sell them fast, and aren't concerned with getting max value. They usually don't know the build cost on the module, let alone care about it.


PvP does cause players to sell for speed rather than value... but my guess is that the number of modules generated from PvP looting compared to NPC looting is on the order of 100:1. Perhaps I'm wrong... but I don't think I am.
Mephiztopheleze
Laphroaig Inc.
#13 - 2017-05-24 23:56:53 UTC
Scialt wrote:

PvP does cause players to sell for speed rather than value... but my guess is that the number of modules generated from PvP looting compared to NPC looting is on the order of 100:1. Perhaps I'm wrong... but I don't think I am.


PvP loot tends to include a lot of T2 modules and a generous dollop of faction and deadspace gear, depending on the quality/stupidity of your opponents.

Occasional Resident Newbie Correspondent for TMC: http://themittani.com/search/site/mephiztopheleze

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