Market Discussions

Unfortunately I have been working over the time that FF has been streaming so haven't been able to get up to date with the market gossip. For those of us that haven't been able to watch or participate could you say what "leads" are? Thanks.

You should send me something about these leads as well.

Why didn't you just DM me.

Edit. I'd suggest buy Rattlesnakes obviously, and maybe Vindicators and Machs because of incursions.

There is a difference between the mineral balance and the current discussion over pirate ship BPCs. The mineral rebalance was demand side - they adjusted bills of material, and non-discretionary - you can't build anything without minerals!

The pirate battleships are discretionary - nobody has to buy them. The nullsec fleet doctrines exist in part because they are cheap, excellent capability/ISK. If CCP imposes a supply side constraint, the price will go up but demand will go down. When doctrines change to a different hull, the people who own them because they are doctrine, will be selling.

Eventually things will settle down and prices will stabilize somewhat higher than they are today but it could take a long time. Factor in the time value of capital and there are probably better investments.

Of course, differences of opinion are what make markets work - every transaction needs both buyer and seller!

me trying to be clever, the chemical symbol for lead is Pb, also a pun on sales/market leads........

I call the orginal theory bullshit, somebody ... just manipulated Bhaalgorns and Nightmares. Everything else has just a slight pinch upwards because it was very cheap the last weeks. Market history is your friend.
Looking at BPCs prices you can still produce for last weeks sell prices except for Bhaalgorns and Nightmares.

Sabriz Adoudel made the point.

It is a valid investment idea, but it can be a really long run. CCP have their hand full: they need to rebalance T3Cs first, as they announced, and they need to implement blood raider sites. So both team "spaceships stats" and team "NPC content" will be busy throughout the summer. During that summer prices for "leads" could dive much lower, and you'll be missing some other market opportunities either way, as you'll be short of cash.

Speaking of PBs - what do you think happened at the end of the February? Mach, Bhaal and Nightmare bounced significantly and simultaneously.

I don't doubt that there is a kind of demand but if you check the market history you can clearly see heavy spikes in volume and of course in price after that. Combine that with very low prices some weeks ago i would call that manipulation. Anyway, the supply is deep and without intervention aka buy out the market prices will go down and are already seeing pressure.
Bhaalgorn, Rattlesnake and Machariel prices are close to collapse again to the old low some weeks ago. Only Nightmares seems to be steady.

Hokey dokey I thought this would take me ages, but I found it fairly quickly.
This is at the end of the ships and balance start to day 2.
The answer to an audience question leads into more about pirate battleships availability.

The first minute is just context, the meat and potatoes starts after the first minute.

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/133986045?t=01h02m00s

CCP Larrikin
"I think we are going to be looking at the balance and basically ease of accessibility of pirate battleships. They are probably a little too accessible right now."
my emphasis

Your argument and reasoning here is good. It's very true that we don't know when CCP will make the changes, and more importantly after those changes are made how long it will take for the effect to be reflected in the market. It's a shame you didn't start out like this.

I believe that the changes will be soon simply because of the potential amount of work involved. To adjust drop rates or change LP cost is trivial in work terms. It would probably take longer to discuss internally within CCP how much to change availability by than to actually implement the change. Also it's now been announced, maybe not formally shouted, but CCP could sneak it into any upcoming patch in the patchnotes as "the changes to pirate battleship we discussed at Fanfest have been implemented" Also at Fanfest in one of the two videos I've linked above they talk about it being quite a high priority.
The only thing that might slow it down a bit in my opinion is they did talk about possibly making balance changes to machariels and if they roll that in at the same time that could take a little more work = delay.

Different people play the market different ways. This may be better suited as a long term investment/gamble but already some people have siezed the opportunity. I don't think it's a simple market manipulation, I think it's a general trend that is already showing and will continue to show as traders do take a position in pirate battleships. Not everyone has the time or patience to 0.01 ISK. Some of us take a much longer slower turnover approach. I myself take a very longer term approach to he market and whilst you are right I am very illiquid but that suits my playtime and my margins are huge :)