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Monthly Economic Report - February 2017

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CCP Phantom
C C P
C C P Alliance
#1 - 2017-03-06 16:11:14 UTC  |  Edited by: CCP Phantom
The Monthly Economic Report for February 2017 is ready for you. The MERs contain a wealth of information about the economy in EVE. There is something for everyone: industrialist, traders, speculators, and just interested pilots can enjoy these reports.

If you want to have a closer look at the numbers, you are welcome to dig into the raw data (27 MB, zipped) for yourself!

Also, you can review the previous reports here.


To understand the terms we use these reports, a quick reminder.

Mineral Price Index (MPI)
The Mineral Price Index (MPI) shows the price changes in all eight minerals used to produce ships and other items in EVE. The weight of each mineral in the index changes each month is based on the relative trade values of the previous month.

Primary Producer Price Index (PPPI)
The Primary Producer Price Index consists of manufacturing items used for the production of other manufacturing items at the secondary stage. Manufacturing items used for the production of final consumer goods are excluded. The index includes such item groups as ore, moon materials, planetary commodities, sleeper relics, and items used in invention.

Secondary Producer Price Index (SPPI)
The Secondary Producer Price Index contains production materials and other production items that are used in the manufacturing of consumer goods, i.e. goods included in the Consumer Price Index.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The Consumer Price Index measures the overall price changes of consumer products. This is not limited to consumables such as fuel, ammunition or PLEX, but also includes assets such as ships, modules, implants and starbase structures. In summary, anything that is not primarily used to produce other goods is included in the index, which contains over 4000 individual items.

CCP Phantom - Senior Community Developer
Querns
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#2 - 2017-03-06 16:20:27 UTC
Hrm. I thought the regional granularity was going away. Was this forgotten?

This post was crafted by the wormhole expert of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
Kanya Jade
#3 - 2017-03-06 16:26:26 UTC
Good to see CCP changed their minds.
Chainsaw Plankton
FaDoyToy
#4 - 2017-03-06 16:34:57 UTC
look at them bounty prizes Shocked

@ChainsawPlankto on twitter
Tipa Riot
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2017-03-06 16:39:11 UTC
Chainsaw Plankton wrote:
look at them bounty prizes Shocked

Yeah, this is a frightening development ...

I'm my own NPC alt.
Socratum
#6 - 2017-03-06 16:57:38 UTC
Nice. Thx!

Разработка проекта по качественно новому подходу к ведению Корпоративного бизнеса
mkint
#7 - 2017-03-06 17:06:02 UTC  |  Edited by: mkint
evaluations: as has been pointed out, bounties. I can only assume this is in response to the drop in mineral prices, but I don't know what kind of math would reveal how many people transitioning would have that much effect. Production and destruction are both up, so demand is still being exceeded. Isk supply is stable so the bounties aren't exactly causing inflation, except that's not exactly good news since about half of that value left the game with the active isk delta.

Conclusion: the economy being held afloat by people quitting the game is not a good business model. The delta represents about 3.5% loss, but as the biggest isk holders seem least likely to leave this probably represents a much higher player count, and a higher percentage of circulating isk.

Request: a graph showing isk (and maybe total net worth) distribution among characters.

Edit:
reviewing past months... the faucet line graph, doesn't seem to be that useful. The faucet chart makes bounties look much more stable, from 50T to 60T over 4 months, where the line graph makes it look like it nearly doubled. What's concerning me more is the isk delta and how it has bounced anywhere from 1T to 100T from month to month. How can it be so inconsistent?

Maxim 6. If violence wasn’t your last resort, you failed to resort to enough of it.
Hendrink Collie
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#8 - 2017-03-06 17:13:22 UTC
Nice. Thanks for keeping the region breakdown available btw. Pretty cool to see the various trends going on by region. Smile
Vincent Athena
Photosynth
#9 - 2017-03-06 18:15:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Vincent Athena
mkint wrote:
......What's concerning me more is the isk delta and how it has bounced anywhere from 1T to 100T from month to month. How can it be so inconsistent?

My guess: Its people who come back when a new feature is introduced vs people leaving as they get bored with the game as-is.
Thus, it will always bounce around. To get trends, we need to average over several months.

Edit: To many others: I think when CCP announced the cessation of the monthly data, they said that this will be the last month with that data.

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Frozen fanfiction
Skia Aumer
Planetary Harvesting and Processing LLC
#10 - 2017-03-06 19:39:42 UTC
Thanks for more graph porn and for regional stats in particular!
Circumstantial Evidence
#11 - 2017-03-06 20:34:32 UTC
Vincent Athena wrote:
Edit: To many others: I think when CCP announced the cessation of the monthly data, they said that this will be the last month with that data.
CCP Quant, Jan 2017 wrote:
Please note that this MER is the last one containing regional stats, the next MERs will be more streamlined and not showing those graphs. This was a request by the CSM
Nope! Either forgotten to not include regional breakout, or intentional choice. If the latter, +1 in support of maintaining the regional breakout. Large groups are adept at protecting their turf, and in the long term, exposing it may help drive envious conflict. Looking at the bottom three regions for mining... perhaps a good quiet place to move Rorqual ops? Or.... perhaps there's a reason mining doesn't happen ;)
Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
#12 - 2017-03-06 22:47:33 UTC
mkint wrote:
evaluations: as has been pointed out, bounties. I can only assume this is in response to the drop in mineral prices, but I don't know what kind of math would reveal how many people transitioning would have that much effect. Production and destruction are both up, so demand is still being exceeded. Isk supply is stable so the bounties aren't exactly causing inflation, except that's not exactly good news since about half of that value left the game with the active isk delta.

Conclusion: the economy being held afloat by people quitting the game is not a good business model. The delta represents about 3.5% loss, but as the biggest isk holders seem least likely to leave this probably represents a much higher player count, and a higher percentage of circulating isk.

Request: a graph showing isk (and maybe total net worth) distribution among characters.

Edit:
reviewing past months... the faucet line graph, doesn't seem to be that useful. The faucet chart makes bounties look much more stable, from 50T to 60T over 4 months, where the line graph makes it look like it nearly doubled. What's concerning me more is the isk delta and how it has bounced anywhere from 1T to 100T from month to month. How can it be so inconsistent?

https://i.redd.it/eyqbtnq1qmvx.png
Recent enough to be useful?
mkint
#13 - 2017-03-07 02:59:13 UTC
Nevyn Auscent wrote:
mkint wrote:
evaluations: as has been pointed out, bounties. I can only assume this is in response to the drop in mineral prices, but I don't know what kind of math would reveal how many people transitioning would have that much effect. Production and destruction are both up, so demand is still being exceeded. Isk supply is stable so the bounties aren't exactly causing inflation, except that's not exactly good news since about half of that value left the game with the active isk delta.

Conclusion: the economy being held afloat by people quitting the game is not a good business model. The delta represents about 3.5% loss, but as the biggest isk holders seem least likely to leave this probably represents a much higher player count, and a higher percentage of circulating isk.

Request: a graph showing isk (and maybe total net worth) distribution among characters.

Edit:
reviewing past months... the faucet line graph, doesn't seem to be that useful. The faucet chart makes bounties look much more stable, from 50T to 60T over 4 months, where the line graph makes it look like it nearly doubled. What's concerning me more is the isk delta and how it has bounced anywhere from 1T to 100T from month to month. How can it be so inconsistent?

https://i.redd.it/eyqbtnq1qmvx.png
Recent enough to be useful?

Hmm.... to extrapolate: "10.6% of all isk is held by 80% of the players." Assuming that's the group where the isk delta is coming from, a -3.5% delta would represent about 30% of the 80%? Did EVE lose approx 24% of the playerbase in 1 month or do I just really really suck at math?

Maxim 6. If violence wasn’t your last resort, you failed to resort to enough of it.
Andrei Rianovski
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#14 - 2017-03-07 06:17:12 UTC
Thanks for leaving the regional data with us Big smile

/me enjoys the data and comparing my favourite regions with other regions
Darren Demai
Vovkulaki
UA. Space
#15 - 2017-03-07 13:05:59 UTC
Where can I read the explanations of what those sums mean? like Net Export or Net Import
Indahmawar Fazmarai
#16 - 2017-03-07 14:32:47 UTC
mkint wrote:
evaluations: as has been pointed out, bounties. I can only assume this is in response to the drop in mineral prices, but I don't know what kind of math would reveal how many people transitioning would have that much effect. Production and destruction are both up, so demand is still being exceeded. Isk supply is stable so the bounties aren't exactly causing inflation, except that's not exactly good news since about half of that value left the game with the active isk delta.

Conclusion: the economy being held afloat by people quitting the game is not a good business model. The delta represents about 3.5% loss, but as the biggest isk holders seem least likely to leave this probably represents a much higher player count, and a higher percentage of circulating isk.

Request: a graph showing isk (and maybe total net worth) distribution among characters.

Edit:
reviewing past months... the faucet line graph, doesn't seem to be that useful. The faucet chart makes bounties look much more stable, from 50T to 60T over 4 months, where the line graph makes it look like it nearly doubled. What's concerning me more is the isk delta and how it has bounced anywhere from 1T to 100T from month to month. How can it be so inconsistent?


Well, maybe the rising bounties reflect alpaca players... it's not as if they've got much else to do, other than run misisons and earn ISK.

As for ISK delta, that's a common warning I've been making. What keeps the economy healthy it's players hoarding more sutff than they will fly and then quitting. That's a slap to the face of the "creation vs destruction" meme.

Every month, 1 isk is destroyed, 1.5 are created and anything between 10 and 60 go inactive. Care to guess what would happen if just 1% of all former players tried to sell their assets in a month?
Gisele Serebriakova
Norman's Meat Market
#17 - 2017-03-07 22:45:36 UTC
mkint wrote:
Nevyn Auscent wrote:

Hmm.... to extrapolate: "10.6% of all isk is held by 80% of the players." Assuming that's the group where the isk delta is coming from, a -3.5% delta would represent about 30% of the 80%? Did EVE lose approx 24% of the playerbase in 1 month or do I just really really suck at math?


Did you count the casino guys who got banned?

The graph creation date and the ban/EULA change announcement are within a month of each other so IDK.
Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
#18 - 2017-03-07 23:17:07 UTC
That particular graph is broad enough it's not going to have been significantly impacted by that, because there will be enough other apex wealth holders.
However the isk delta atm probably is showing alpha's sitting on vast sums of isk (old 10 year vets) who stuck their head back in to look at things, then went inactive again, so it's probably not a very accurate picture over the last few months. See the large jump around when they brought alpha clones in which indicates that.

As for the increase in bounties, no it is not likely to be alpha clones. Even at their best an alpha clone isn't likely to be turning more than 5-10 million an hour in bounties, and that will be outside of highsec, the mission runner alpha's will be turning even less. Those bounty increases are from carrier ratting. You can see the first huge jump when carriers were changed, and it's climbed since.
mkint
#19 - 2017-03-08 13:14:06 UTC
Nevyn Auscent wrote:
That particular graph is broad enough it's not going to have been significantly impacted by that, because there will be enough other apex wealth holders.
However the isk delta atm probably is showing alpha's sitting on vast sums of isk (old 10 year vets) who stuck their head back in to look at things, then went inactive again, so it's probably not a very accurate picture over the last few months. See the large jump around when they brought alpha clones in which indicates that.

As for the increase in bounties, no it is not likely to be alpha clones. Even at their best an alpha clone isn't likely to be turning more than 5-10 million an hour in bounties, and that will be outside of highsec, the mission runner alpha's will be turning even less. Those bounty increases are from carrier ratting. You can see the first huge jump when carriers were changed, and it's climbed since.

I assumed the recent changes were in response to the rorqual. Increased supply in minerals drives price down for most miners, driving them into PVE.

As far as this month's isk delta, based on character creation rates and TCU's, I would assume the alpha surge is over and done with, though with the new way of measuring isk delta, there would be some lag time, so maybe it's that. And I thought the gambling thing was before that, wasn't it?

Maxim 6. If violence wasn’t your last resort, you failed to resort to enough of it.
Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
#20 - 2017-03-08 22:38:43 UTC
mkint wrote:

I assumed the recent changes were in response to the rorqual. Increased supply in minerals drives price down for most miners, driving them into PVE.

As far as this month's isk delta, based on character creation rates and TCU's, I would assume the alpha surge is over and done with, though with the new way of measuring isk delta, there would be some lag time, so maybe it's that. And I thought the gambling thing was before that, wasn't it?

If this months 5 Trillion (total) increase was because of the Rorqual then we have a serious issue, because the Rorqual changes were only published on the 23rd.
So either the real bounty increase was 4 times that, or people were getting word ahead of time which means the CSM is leaking to null alliances. Other possibilities are that it's people still training into carriers getting increased income.
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