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Player Features and Ideas Discussion

 
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Fixing Eve's economy

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Author
Danika Princip
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#41 - 2017-01-17 22:18:23 UTC
Clearly the solution is space-bitcoins. Roll
SurrenderMonkey
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#42 - 2017-01-17 22:18:48 UTC
Danika Princip wrote:
Clearly the solution is space-bitcoins. Roll


I hear you can mine those in nullsec.

"Help, I'm bored with missions!"

http://swiftandbitter.com/eve/wtd/

Beast of Revelations
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#43 - 2017-01-17 22:25:02 UTC
Sonya Corvinus wrote:

So without a treasury department, how does that bank make that dollar?

The Fed? It's been years since I studied it, and I don't feel like taking out a ladder and going into the attic to get one of my old couple-thousand page tomes on this.

I seem to remember several different methods. 1) Merely adding zeros to some Fed account entry somewhere, 2) buying Treasury bonds by simply writing a check (here's the kicker - the check isn't backed by anything. they just write a check!), 3) lending to banks through the Fed's 'discount window,' 4) setting reserve requirements for banks, 5) Etc.

None of that matters. Even if I have some detail wrong, it doesn't matter. What matters is that whatever it does, it is the equivalent of getting a printing press and simply printing money and spending it. If you do it, it's called counterfeiting. If the Fed does it, it's just a normal day at work.
Sonya Corvinus
Grant Village
#44 - 2017-01-17 23:03:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Sonya Corvinus
Beast of Revelations wrote:
The Fed? It's been years since I studied it, and I don't feel like taking out a ladder and going into the attic to get one of my old couple-thousand page tomes on this.

I seem to remember several different methods. 1) Merely adding zeros to some Fed account entry somewhere, 2) buying Treasury bonds by simply writing a check (here's the kicker - the check isn't backed by anything. they just write a check!), 3) lending to banks through the Fed's 'discount window,' 4) setting reserve requirements for banks, 5) Etc.

None of that matters. Even if I have some detail wrong, it doesn't matter. What matters is that whatever it does, it is the equivalent of getting a printing press and simply printing money and spending it. If you do it, it's called counterfeiting. If the Fed does it, it's just a normal day at work.


I work in investment management with a guy who worked for the fed for years and teaches graduate level economics at night. The entire point I was making is our fed relies on government involvement. Which EVE doesn't have. The check IS backed by something. The full faith and force of the government. Who do you think issues and buys back those bonds? The US government. There is no government in EVE. That's what I was trying to guide you towards. There are no t-bills, bonds or notes without the US government, so we can't use something like the FED in a discussion of EVE's markets.

It absolutely matters if you have some details wrong.

Now you're going to say, "what good is the 'full faith and force of the government'"? The answer is, it's pretty good. The only bonds that have defaulted globally in the western world were Italy's during their recent collapse. The full faith of a government is a powerful thing to use to control currencies. So, if we want to regulate EVE's economy, it's useless to think about before there's a strong government (which will never happen)
Beast of Revelations
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#45 - 2017-01-17 23:32:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Beast of Revelations
Sonya Corvinus wrote:

I work in investment management with a guy who worked for the fed for years and teaches graduate level economics at night.

I work with a close friend who I've known for over 20 years who is former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury of the USA. Worked with the president in the White House (him, not me), Ph.D. in Economics, author of numerous books, etc. In fact, I'm having lunch with him tomorrow.

Quote:
The check IS backed by something. The full faith and force of the government.

Ahhhh, your definition of being 'backed by something is 'full faith.' We'll just have to agree to disagree on this.

Quote:
There is no government in EVE. That's what I was trying to guide you towards. There are no t-bills, bonds or notes without the US government, so we can't use something like the FED in a discussion of EVE's markets.

Look, this has gotten ridiculous. You and others are blowing this way up into something it wasn't intended to be. Someone skins their knee, I offer a suggestion on how to bandage the knee differently than they way it is bandaged, and all of a sudden we are discussing Ph.D. level medical crap and delving into ridiculous details that shouldn't be delved into.

Let me try to simplify this for you, if that is possible. I notice an economy operating on faucets and sinks. I simply make a suggestion that it might work better, with less oversight of it required, and less manual adjustments necessary, if we move to a model where whenever ISK is created out of thin air (bounty payments, insurance payouts, etc), an appropriate amount of 'goodies' (rat drops, etc) are also created to 'back that ISK up' so to speak. Now, did I have every 'i' dotted and every t crossed? No. Did I sit down and write a Ph.D. dissertation on the subject before making the suggestion? No. IT WAS JUST AN IDEA, A SUGGESTION, NOTHING MORE.

There's a reason why we have a section on the forums called 'Player Features and Ideas Discussion.' And that's all this is - a player feature/idea. Sheesh.
Zhilia Mann
Tide Way Out Productions
#46 - 2017-01-17 23:38:43 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:
I notice an economy operating on faucets and sinks.


Neither of which you understand.

Beast of Revelations wrote:
I simply make a suggestion that it might work better, with less oversight of it required, and less manual adjustments necessary, if we move to a model where whenever ISK is created out of thin air (bounty payments, insurance payouts, etc), an appropriate amount of 'goodies' (rat drops, etc) are also created to 'back that ISK up' so to speak.


Which is a bad idea and leads to hyperinflation, just as your precious gold standard would.

Beast of Revelations wrote:
Now, did I have every 'i' dotted and every t crossed? No. Did I sit down and write a Ph.D. dissertation on the subject before making the suggestion? No. IT WAS JUST AN IDEA, A SUGGESTION, NOTHING MORE.

There's a reason why we have a section on the forums called 'Player Features and Ideas Discussion.' And that's all this is - a player feature/idea. Sheesh.


We just like to see things that are actually thought out. That doesn't seem unreasonable.
SurrenderMonkey
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#47 - 2017-01-17 23:40:37 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:

Look, this has gotten ridiculous. You and others are blowing this way up into something it wasn't intended to be. Someone skins their knee, I offer a suggestion on how to bandage the knee differently than they way it is bandaged, and all of a sudden we are discussing Ph.D. level medical crap and delving into ridiculous details that shouldn't be delved into.



More like someone bends down to tie their shoe, you mistakenly think they've fallen and scraped their knee, rush over, and suggest amputation before gangrene sets in, ignoring their protests that there's nothing wrong with their knee, as they didn't even fall down.

"Help, I'm bored with missions!"

http://swiftandbitter.com/eve/wtd/

Beast of Revelations
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#48 - 2017-01-17 23:44:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Beast of Revelations
Zhilia Mann wrote:

Which is a bad idea and leads to hyperinflation, just as your precious gold standard would.

Gold standards lead to hyperinflations? Where on earth do people learn economics these days? The same places they learn math and science and everything else, I guess.

I'd heard that education had taken a nose-dive in the last few decades. I guess it's worse than I thought.
Zhilia Mann
Tide Way Out Productions
#49 - 2017-01-17 23:47:47 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:
Zhilia Mann wrote:

Which is a bad idea and leads to hyperinflation, just as your precious gold standard would.

Gold standards lead to hyperinflations? Where on earth do people learn economics these days? The same places they learn math and science and everything else, I guess.

I'd heard that education had taken a nose-dive in the last few decades. I guess it's worse than I thought.


I misspoke. The value of money becomes hyperinflated as the amount of currency fails to keep up with economic growth.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#50 - 2017-01-18 05:12:22 UTC
Gregorius Goldstein wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


He was the lead economist. He has a new job now.


Was.. lead economist, OK. But EVE's economy is something a lot of thoughts were put into and not something that is out of hand or needs much fixing. I don't know any other MMO that has such detailed reports and takes the ingame economy that serous.


I agree on that, as an economist.

And I would not be surprised if EVE's economy was not one of the largest economic simulations in the world. Almost the entire economy is player driven.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#51 - 2017-01-18 05:19:37 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:
I have seen, and read about, huge price swings, inflations, deflations, etc. in Eve's history. Those kinds of things are fine if driven by market forces, and even if driven by player market manipulation. The problem is the portion that isn't - the portion driven by the mechanics of creation of ISK and items out of thin air (bounty payments, drops, asteroid fields, etc).


Well, see the problem of de novo ISK creation is only a problem if it outstrips the pace at which real goods and services in New Eden are created. If the money supply and the supply of real goods and services are roughly equal then there is no inflation nor deflation. If the growth of the money supply outstrips the production on the real side then we get inflation, if production outstrips the creation if ISK we get deflation. Mild inflation or deflation are fine. Extremes at both ends are not.

What you have not done is shown that we have had any periods of extremes.

As such I see no need for your suggested "fix" as I see no problem that needs "fixing".

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Beast of Revelations
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#52 - 2017-01-18 05:57:14 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:

What you have not done is shown that we have had any periods of extremes.

As such I see no need for your suggested "fix" as I see no problem that needs "fixing".


I talk to people all the time who say "Good God! A Machariel or Nightmare at 300-ish mil? I remember when they were over a billion!"

Look, I have no huge beef with the current system. I have no huge beef with the skill queue either, but I've offered suggestions on how it could be better. I have no huge beef with my father's big block with the 4-barrel carburetor, but I think it would be even better with electronic fuel injection.

Nothing is perfect, I'm merely suggesting what I think would be a better way. With the current system, it requires monitoring to see whether production is outstripping ISK creation yadda yadda. With the system I propose, everything would sort of be 'automated' and would not need the degree of monitoring or tweaks the current system in all likelihood needs.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#53 - 2017-01-18 07:03:48 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:

What you have not done is shown that we have had any periods of extremes.

As such I see no need for your suggested "fix" as I see no problem that needs "fixing".


I talk to people all the time who say "Good God! A Machariel or Nightmare at 300-ish mil? I remember when they were over a billion!"


How is that deflation vs. players supplying the market with more macherials, or CCP playing with drop rates or rates for escalations, or even just sanctums/havens which in turn lead to more escalations? Do you have an evidence that the money supply in the game is falling faster than the quantity of real goods and services.

And go look at the price of the Megathron. I remember, literally, when its price was around 70 millionish ISK. Now it is almost 100 million more. Or the maelstrom which is 70+ million more expensive than it was back in 2009.

To determine to what extent there is inflation you will need to construct a basket of goods and from that basket calculate a price index. I recommend a superlative price index.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Beast of Revelations
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#54 - 2017-01-18 07:16:57 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:

How is that deflation vs. players supplying the market with more macherials

Fair enough.

Quote:
Do you have an evidence that the money supply in the game is falling faster than the quantity of real goods and services.

I've seen the (monthly? quarterly?) 'sinks and faucets' summaries. The amount of stuff sunk, and the amount of stuff fauceted, is generally out of whack, whatever that means.

There's really no way that a sink and faucet model can work ('work' meaning no inflation/deflation), except either by luck, or by monitoring of the economy and making adjustments. I am simply proposing a way to not have to rely on luck, or continuous monitoring and making adjustments.

If you think the superior way is to have CCP or whoever continually monitor the economy and make fixes or tweaks where needed, fine, have at it I guess. No skin off my nose.

Quote:
To determine to what extent there is inflation you will need to construct a basket of goods and from that basket calculate a price index. I recommend a superlative price index.

Fair enough.
Scipio Artelius
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#55 - 2017-01-18 07:44:54 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:
Quote:
At any point in time, rich older players could leave the game for some time, effectively removing all of their ISK and assets from the economy. New players join and have to pick up the scraps.

It's not a model that seems to work very well because people want to have fun and any player can just leave the game at anytime; and come back later on.


So? Happens in real life too. People can stick millions or billions in a bank and never touch it, or die, or whatever. People can bury money and goods, stick money under their mattresses, etc. Also happens in the current economic model of the game. I fail to see how or why this debunks my idea.

Yes; and real life doesn't operate the way you are proposing here either.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#56 - 2017-01-18 08:07:57 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:

How is that deflation vs. players supplying the market with more macherials

Fair enough.

Quote:
Do you have an evidence that the money supply in the game is falling faster than the quantity of real goods and services.

I've seen the (monthly? quarterly?) 'sinks and faucets' summaries. The amount of stuff sunk, and the amount of stuff fauceted, is generally out of whack, whatever that means.

There's really no way that a sink and faucet model can work ('work' meaning no inflation/deflation), except either by luck, or by monitoring of the economy and making adjustments. I am simply proposing a way to not have to rely on luck, or continuous monitoring and making adjustments.

If you think the superior way is to have CCP or whoever continually monitor the economy and make fixes or tweaks where needed, fine, have at it I guess. No skin off my nose.

Quote:
To determine to what extent there is inflation you will need to construct a basket of goods and from that basket calculate a price index. I recommend a superlative price index.

Fair enough.


Sinks and sources summaries won't answer the question. What you need to do is look at the net change in the money supply relative to the change on in quantities.

You seem to have a rudimentary grasp of the basic elements of the quantity theory of money. But the actual identity is,

M*V = P*Q

M: the money supply,
V: the velocity of money, how quickly money moves from holder to holder.
P: the nominal price level
Q: the real output or transactions.

If V is held constant and Q does not change, then an increase in M leads to an increase in P.

Of course, this is an economic/accounting identity and one should be very careful reasoning from identities. While they are true by definition they are also devoid of any theoretical content. That is, any theory should have implications that adhere to various identities, but given that there are multiple theories that can satisfy these identities satisfying identities tells you nothing about the validity of any theory.

Now in the long run, it is widely held that money is neutral, that is an increase in the money supply will eventually, all other things being constant, lead to an increase in the money supply. The reason for this is that at the end of the day, people only care about the real aspects of the economy.

However, all other things are not constant, so we need to look at the money supply in relation to real goods and services.

This is what price indices do. They take a basket of goods and measure the prices at different points in time. Ideally you want a price index that treats price increases and decreases the same.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#57 - 2017-01-18 08:15:18 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:
Quote:
At any point in time, rich older players could leave the game for some time, effectively removing all of their ISK and assets from the economy. New players join and have to pick up the scraps.

It's not a model that seems to work very well because people want to have fun and any player can just leave the game at anytime; and come back later on.


So? Happens in real life too. People can stick millions or billions in a bank and never touch it, or die, or whatever. People can bury money and goods, stick money under their mattresses, etc. Also happens in the current economic model of the game. I fail to see how or why this debunks my idea.


Aside from burying money, putting money in the bank does not take it out of circulation. In fact, that puts it in circulation. The bank will take those funds and loan almost all of it out (depending on capital requirements).

Scipio's point is that this does not happen much in EVE. If I sell some loot for say 2 billion...If I spend 500 million and keep the other 1.5 billion in my wallet it is not in circulation, it is like burying it in the proverbial mayonnaise jar which does not happen much IRL. There is no reason to bury your money IRL. At the very least put it in the bank where it is totally and completely safe. Even if it is $1 million or $1 billion it will be fully protected by FDIC insurance (well, if you are in the U.S.).

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

SurrenderMonkey
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#58 - 2017-01-18 16:26:21 UTC
Beast of Revelations wrote:

I've seen the (monthly? quarterly?) 'sinks and faucets' summaries. The amount of stuff sunk, and the amount of stuff fauceted, is generally out of whack, whatever that means.


Oh wow, that is some Akita T-level economic analysis there.

It's out of whack, folks.

Whatever that means.

"Help, I'm bored with missions!"

http://swiftandbitter.com/eve/wtd/

Sonya Corvinus
Grant Village
#59 - 2017-01-18 16:44:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Sonya Corvinus
Beast of Revelations wrote:
Let me try to simplify this for you, if that is possible. I notice an economy operating on faucets and sinks. I simply make a suggestion that it might work better, with less oversight of it required, and less manual adjustments necessary, if we move to a model where whenever ISK is created out of thin air (bounty payments, insurance payouts, etc), an appropriate amount of 'goodies' (rat drops, etc) are also created to 'back that ISK up' so to speak. Now, did I have every 'i' dotted and every t crossed? No. Did I sit down and write a Ph.D. dissertation on the subject before making the suggestion? No. IT WAS JUST AN IDEA, A SUGGESTION, NOTHING MORE.

There's a reason why we have a section on the forums called 'Player Features and Ideas Discussion.' And that's all this is - a player feature/idea. Sheesh.


Yes, this is for discussion. You suggested something, I disagree. Discussion. Nothing needs to change. What you're proposing would be change for the sake of change, not to add anything to the game. You kept comparing EVE's economy to real world economies, which isn't something you can do. That was my point. Is it closer to a real world economy than most games? Yes, but it's still not comparable. I don't like your idea. I don't think it would be good for the game.

That's my contribution to this discussion.
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