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Drifter Speculation

Author
Leon Zhost
EVE University
Ivy League
#1 - 2016-11-20 04:54:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Leon Zhost
I know this is a subject matter that has been discussed extensively by much brighter minds than mine, but I've been watching the reports of increased Drifter activity over the last few weeks, I've been watching the response of the Empires, and I would like to raise a few questions that I don't believe are being effectively addressed.

Firstly, I'm going to say something that might sound heretical: I don't believe that the Drifters are the civilization-ending threat we have made them out to be. The truth is, we don't know what they want, and we don't know what they are fighting for. It seems to me that their actions defy the expectations of a traditional conflict, and until we attempt to understand that we are going to continue to fail in our endeavors to anticipate and stop them.

Lets be honest- the rhyme or reason of the Drifters attacks makes little sense. If they are waging a war against us, why are they not attacking planets or population centers? Why are they not crippling shipyards? Why don't they disable our stargates? What are their demands?

They kill the Empress, then make no attempt to launch an effective invasion of the Empire. They assault research facilities, but make no attempt to stop the logistics, resource gathering, and communication networks of the Empires. I believe that they have the technological superiority to destroy us if they chose to, but as far as I can tell they have no interest in it. The majority of their assaults seem geared towards slowing our research into cloning technologies, as well as sporadic attacks on massed fleet forces. It is almost as if the Drifter are trying to deter us, rather than destroy us.

So here is the questions that I don't believe we are effectively asking- if we were the Drifters, what is it we would be attempting to achieve? Unless they choose to someday communicate with us, I don't think we will ever truly have an answer to that. I have theory though, one which may be uncomfortable to admit: I think we brought this on ourselves.

We traveled into wormhole space. The Capsuleer community spent years pillaging the ruins of Sleeper sites and laying claim to a new galaxy we barely understood. Every action inevitably creations a reaction. The Drifters seem to be that galaxy's response to our incursions, and until we begin to ask ourselves how this conflict began we won't be able to end it.

Anyways, those are my thoughts. Let me know if you think I'm a raving fool, or if I got something new to say here. In my experience, the two are not mutually exclusive.

-Zhost
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#2 - 2016-11-20 06:01:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Makoto Priano
Hello, Mr. Zhost!

So, this is by no means intended to be a categorical rebuttal, but I feel I must address a few points.

In the first, we don't know if the Drifters are or are not an existential threat. Clearly, the Sisters are spooked. Clearly, the Drifters can challenge the largest navy of the cluster. Clearly, the Drifters can move and strike with impunity. However, you are quite right; we do not know their objectives, and what we see does not seem to indicate that they are striving to destroy humanity. Simply said, we don't know if they're an existential threat or not. However, they have the potential to be.

In the second, while they have not attacked population centers or planets, they have attacked Amarr targets including military bases, and they have also engaged in monitoring of Imperial stargates for traffic in entosis links. Likewise, the Throne Worlds campaign might be considered an invasion of the Amarr Empire.

As for their targets, well-- let me say that while they clearly have some technical superiority, I do not believe they have the weight of numbers to engage Capsuleers and the Empires in a direct campaign. During the Throne Worlds campaigns, Capsuleers were able to throw back influxes at a fairly reasonable rate, and with negligible losses; it required planning, capability, and focus, but it was within our reach.

As for 'bringing this on ourselves,' well. Perhaps that's so. But what would you advise? That we abandon the only source we know for the materials required to produce our most advanced technologies? That we cower from the threat of the Drifters, never to meet and match them in battle? That we circumscribe our potential because to be audacious is difficult?

That sounds rather defeatest, Mr. Zhost.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Leon Zhost
EVE University
Ivy League
#3 - 2016-11-20 06:15:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Leon Zhost
Thank you, Miss Priano. Those are all valid points, and I don't disagree with anything you have said. I'm not advocating surrender or isolationism either. I know the Drifters have to be combated, and I agree with you that they have the potential to become an existential threat in the future- although I have yet to see evidence that this is their true intent.

What I am trying to suggest is that our opponent is motivated by means and motives that we still don't comprehend, and if we don't find a way to understand them we will never be able to stop them.

Every conflict has historical context, but we are groping in the dark here.
Diana Kim
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#4 - 2016-11-20 11:29:52 UTC
Leon Zhost wrote:

Firstly, I'm going to say something that might sound heretical: I don't believe that the Drifters are the civilization-ending threat we have made them out to be. The truth is, we don't know what they want, and we don't know what they are fighting for. It seems to me that their actions defy the expectations of a traditional conflict, and until we attempt to understand that we are going to continue to fail in our endeavors to anticipate and stop them.

If you can study statistics instead of relying on rumors and claims of pseudo-scientists, I believe you can quickly estimate that the amount of lives lost in the wars started by Minmatar Republic and Gallente Federation daily greatly exceed casualties brought by Drifters.

If we are facing a civilization-ending threat, it has a name of Gallente Federation.

Fearmongering is a weakness. If we don't know what they want, it doesn't make them scary. I am myself way more afraid about what could happen with cluster if, for example, we all become living under Gallentean or Minmatar rule. That would be dark, grim and really scary. That's where real horrors are. What would drifters bring, we don't know yet.

But what we know, is that they bring not as many deaths and destruction as these two listed entities.

Honored are the dead, for their legacy guides us.

In memory of Tibus Heth, Caldari State Executor YC110-115, Hero and Patriot.

Caroline Grace
Retrostellar Boulevard
#5 - 2016-11-20 11:41:25 UTC
Mr. Zhost, I applaud at your position to look at things differently, but make no mistake -- Drifters are cluster-wide threat and need to be destroyed at once. They assassinated the Empress of Amarr Empire, which something absolutely unacceptable, even as I write this from a position of a Gallente Federation citizen. The line has been crossed, the shots have been fired -- we can argue why they did it, we can argue why they are cherry-picking the assaults; in the end, they threaten the cluster-wide peace in so many ways it is impossible to find a good reasoning with them. In order to preserve the freedom for all citizens of New Eden, these folks are going down. And they are going down hard, Mr. Zhost, Federation Navy is not going to joke around.

I'm Caroline Grace, and this is my favorite musical on the Citadel.

Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#6 - 2016-11-20 15:55:54 UTC
Ms. Kim, you are aware that the recent research facility strikes by the Drifters included attacks on Caldari Navy assets, right? Including Caldari Navy capital and supercapital assets?

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Deceiver's Echo
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#7 - 2016-11-20 16:21:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Deceiver's Echo
Quote:
...if we were the Drifters, what is it we would be attempting to achieve?

You are ignoring a simple approach to the problem that will shed more light on their behavior. Many ignore first principles when analyzing Drifter behavior. What evidence is shown, and what does it say when not fit into a preconceived notion of their behavior?

It is not about figuring out what they are trying to achieve. Once we understand them we will know this. We do not yet understand them in the required detail required to answer this question decisively.

What do we know?
1. They are of Jovian ancestry.
2. They have access to Sleeper technology.
3. Their technology is superior to what we know of the Sleepers.
4. They make use of spatial rifts and wormholes.

Points one, two and three suggest a connection to Sleepers. We know that the Sleepers have some connection to the Jovians. There is direct genetic evidence that the Drifters are related to the Jovians. Since we know that Sleepers use technology that was available to Jovians in the past, we can reasonably assume that the Drifters are most likely a divergent clade of Jovians with origins dating back to at least the same time as the Sleepers.

Point four suggests a connection to the Talocan*. This is not a direct connection though. We can assume they are familiar with the technology but are not directly linked to the Talocan*, which further cements their origin within Sleeper wormholes.

This answers a few questions. Who are they? What are their technological capabilities? There are still questions left. What do they want? What are their goals? At this point there is not enough information to answer these questions.

An overlooked aspect of their threat is point four. They are capable of using spatial rifts and wormholes. Sansha's Nation uses wormhole technology to disrupt ship functionality and invade star systems. The suggestion here is that Drifters could use similar effects, and more targeted versions of these effects, against targets cluster-wide. They have not yet, but it is likely a matter of time and conditional upon a future need.

This is why they are an existential threat. They have the potential to disrupt the entire cluster if they so chose and had the proper resources. It is possible they are currently working toward such a disruptive event. It is also possible this event has roots farther back than their first appearance within New Eden.

In short, it is not their current activity that should be alarming, but rather the hints of past and future activity.
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#8 - 2016-11-20 16:48:09 UTC
Deceiver's Echo wrote:

Point four suggests a connection to the Takmahl. This is not a direct connection though. We can assume they are familiar with the technology but are not directly linked to the Takmahl, which further cements their origin within Sleeper wormholes.

This answers a few questions. Who are they? What are their technological capabilities? There are still questions left. What do they want? What are their goals? At this point there is not enough information to answer these questions.

An overlooked aspect of their threat is point four. They are capable of using spatial rifts and wormholes. Sansha's Nation uses wormhole technology to disrupt ship functionality and invade star systems. The suggestion here is that Drifters could use similar effects, and more targeted versions of these effects, against targets cluster-wide. They have not yet, but it is likely a matter of time and conditional upon a future need.


A few points of interest.

A small, pedantic point to begin with; you're referencing the Talocan, not the Takmahl.

Secondly, the Drifters already use wormhole technology as part of their known space operations, and likely also their operations in class 5 and 6 wormhole space.

The Drifters' Unidentified Wormhole systems use a heretofore unfamiliar Sleeper system to stabilize and presumably target wormhole formation to Jove Observatory systems; similarly, Drifter Influxes during the Throne Worlds campaign were noted for the presence of violent wormholes, presumably traversible by the Drifters, and in more pronounced cases stabilized by secondary spatial rifts to allow greater mass transit. Lastly, the Drifter Hives encountered and engaged by Empire navies appear to have been transported by massive Nexus-style anomalies, which appear to be spatial rifts on a massive scale.

So-- they do carry out strikes using that technology.

Currently, I assume the focused targeting by the Drifters is due to their lack of concern with the cluster as a whole.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Deceiver's Echo
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#9 - 2016-11-20 18:01:42 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
A small, pedantic point to begin with; you're referencing the Talocan, not the Takmahl.

Understood. I wrote this as I was waking up. My apologies for the mistake. Thank you for pointing it out.

Quote:
Secondly, the Drifters already use wormhole technology as part of their known space operations, and likely also their operations in class 5 and 6 wormhole space.

The Drifters' Unidentified Wormhole systems use a heretofore unfamiliar Sleeper system to stabilize and presumably target wormhole formation to Jove Observatory systems; similarly, Drifter Influxes during the Throne Worlds campaign were noted for the presence of violent wormholes, presumably traversible by the Drifters, and in more pronounced cases stabilized by secondary spatial rifts to allow greater mass transit. Lastly, the Drifter Hives encountered and engaged by Empire navies appear to have been transported by massive Nexus-style anomalies, which appear to be spatial rifts on a massive scale.

So-- they do carry out strikes using that technology.

There are... other applications of the technology that could be used offensively. I do understand what you are saying, but my point was a little more... subtle. If they are not aware of the potential military applications I do not wish to alert them to it. I have a suspicion they are monitoring these communications.

Quote:
Currently, I assume the focused targeting by the Drifters is due to their lack of concern with the cluster as a whole.

This is an excellent point, and should also be a cause for concern.
Teinyhr
Ourumur
#10 - 2016-11-20 19:35:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Teinyhr
Makoto Priano wrote:
As for 'bringing this on ourselves,' well. Perhaps that's so. But what would you advise? That we abandon the only source we know for the materials required to produce our most advanced technologies? That we cower from the threat of the Drifters, never to meet and match them in battle? That we circumscribe our potential because to be audacious is difficult?


Our most advanced technologies we mostly use to just kill each other.
Clearly not quite as noble endeavour you make it out to be; I think we managed just fine with the technology already available to us.

Also considering the theory that they are related to Jove or Talocan implies they are from here originally, that they had greatly advanced techonology to migrate to Anoikis in the first place and likely improved it with materials they found there. We could've risen to that level of power naturally, and currently, as I've understood it, we are just stealing whatever they had made and barely understand how anything they use works. It is like children hammering a thermonuclear bomb they found in their backyard.
Diana Kim
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#11 - 2016-11-20 20:48:16 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
Ms. Kim, you are aware that the recent research facility strikes by the Drifters included attacks on Caldari Navy assets, right? Including Caldari Navy capital and supercapital assets?

I didn't say they aren't threat or they aren't enemies. I said that Federation is the greater threat.

Drifters are the enemies and must be fought. But the Federation is way more dangerous and is the problem that shall be solved first.

Now, be gone, liar.

Honored are the dead, for their legacy guides us.

In memory of Tibus Heth, Caldari State Executor YC110-115, Hero and Patriot.

Leon Zhost
EVE University
Ivy League
#12 - 2016-11-21 20:48:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Leon Zhost
Miss Kim, as always your diverse and well-formed opinions are appreciated. Your courageous defense of facts and reason have opened my eyes to perspectives I never before thought imaginable.

On the planet I come from they give people like you special hats, and then encourage you to wear that special hat in public at all times so that all the people may know you to be a person of both unique and coherent decision making.

Truly, Miss Kim, you deserve such a hat.