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NPCs mining ore = material sink
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Cista2
EVE Museum
#1 - 2016-10-30 07:51:17 UTC
So, two weeks from now, it seems NPCs will make themselves busy with mining ore in asteroid belts. The ore is mined in competition with players, it is jettisoned into cans, picked up by haulers, and then..... it leaves the New Eden universe.
It will not be available to buy. It is a new material sink.

Depending of course on the *amount* that is mined, this sounds like a market price increase on minerals, non?

Mineral prices continue to plummet though, I guess everyone is expecting that alpha clone players will mine the belts clean and dump cheap ore on the market. I don't know enough about ore replenishing times and such to say which factor will be more important, will be interesting to see.

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Do Little
Bluenose Trading
#2 - 2016-10-30 10:03:48 UTC
I don't think we harvest more than a tiny fraction of the available ore in New Eden. I certainly have no problem finding a well stocked belt - even in the mornings shortly before downtime when the belts regenerate.

I don't see Alpha clones as a major factor in the ore market. I recently ran the career missions for a character with no mining skill to increase standing with that faction and I know how long it takes a low skill character to fill a Venture - this is not a viable career! I have no doubt Alphas will mine for the first week or two, same as trial players do now. If they choose to mine for a living, it will be gas.

The expansion has the potential to increase the demand for minerals. There will be new stuff to build like Engineering Complexes and the Porpoise. There may be increased demand for Orca and T1 battlecruisers as people adapt to on grid boosting. The influx of Alphas will increase demand for the hulls they can fly.

I'm less confident about the supply side. The loss of system wide boosts may reduce the harvest, at least for a while. It isn't just a need to bring your Orca (or other booster) on grid but the gameplay is now active - that pilot can no longer be an AFK ALT. This represents a paradigm shift and it will take a while to stabilize.
Toobo
Project Fruit House
#3 - 2016-10-30 10:14:41 UTC
As Do Little said, there are plenty of ores left unmined in space. I don't think NPC mining will create significant enough 'material sink' to effect the market. What it could effect though is compete with player miners in some popular mining systems, which could lead to relocation for such miners. If you wanted to look at this from market impact angle, I would consider dispersion of miners as the potential game change factor rather than ores mined by NPCs.

Cheers Love! The cavalry's here!
Cista2
EVE Museum
#4 - 2016-10-30 10:38:53 UTC
Do Little wrote:
I don't think we harvest more than a tiny fraction of the available ore

I'll take your word for it, as you can see I was never really a miner :)

My channel: "Signatures" -
Kaivarian Coste
It Came From Thera
#5 - 2016-10-30 10:44:33 UTC
You can always generate endless asteroids via missions if the ore shortage becomes extreme, so I don't think NPC mining will be an issue.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#6 - 2016-10-30 11:51:14 UTC
The more interesting part will be what is in the strongboxes and how often the fleets get exploded.

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Cista2
EVE Museum
#7 - 2016-10-30 12:04:27 UTC
Rhivre wrote:
The more interesting part will be what is in the strongboxes and how often the fleets get exploded.

Harvester mining drones!

My channel: "Signatures" -
TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#8 - 2016-10-30 15:18:59 UTC
What if NPC's put it to market? that would be fun.

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Ze Chelien
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2016-10-31 13:04:38 UTC
This would only make it harder for miner to AFK because miners can always switch asteroids but what a lot of miners do is set up there lasers than watch Netflix or something else on another screen. They don't have to watch there EVE screen that much because the asteroid has a lot of ore in it (ore is added to the astroid every server reset). So, if the NPCs mine some ore miners, won't be able to mine a single asteroid for as long so they have to be more active.

I don't think this will decrease that much because of this but it might discourage miners who want to go AFK for decent periods of time.
TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#10 - 2016-11-02 06:08:15 UTC
Ze Chelien wrote:
This would only make it harder for miner to AFK because miners can always switch asteroids but what a lot of miners do is set up there lasers than watch Netflix or something else on another screen. They don't have to watch there EVE screen that much because the asteroid has a lot of ore in it (ore is added to the astroid every server reset). So, if the NPCs mine some ore miners, won't be able to mine a single asteroid for as long so they have to be more active.

I don't think this will decrease that much because of this but it might discourage miners who want to go AFK for decent periods of time.


Those miners need more screens it seems ;)

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Keksi Shardani
The Spacing Guild Industries
#11 - 2016-11-02 06:54:04 UTC
TheSmokingHertog wrote:
Ze Chelien wrote:
This would only make it harder for miner to AFK because miners can always switch asteroids but what a lot of miners do is set up there lasers than watch Netflix or something else on another screen. They don't have to watch there EVE screen that much because the asteroid has a lot of ore in it (ore is added to the astroid every server reset). So, if the NPCs mine some ore miners, won't be able to mine a single asteroid for as long so they have to be more active.

I don't think this will decrease that much because of this but it might discourage miners who want to go AFK for decent periods of time.


Those miners need more screens it seems ;)


So, rather than investing in minerals, we should probably invest in Dell, BenQ, Samsung...
erg cz
Federal Jegerouns
#12 - 2016-11-02 10:04:17 UTC
NPC mining ops will be so rare, that they will not inflict market in any visible way.

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Careby
#13 - 2016-11-02 12:01:39 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
...NPCs ... mining ore in asteroid belts....
...alpha clone players will mine the belts...


But wait... there's more:

(3) Orcas gain the ability to mine and boost at the same time.

(4) Rorquals with excavators and new defenses redefine low- and null-sec mining.

Now how much would you pay? Don't answer, because you'll also receive:

(5) Engineering Complexes, which could potentially shift much of the manufacturing currently done in highsec to "protected" nullsec systems.

There are so many things happening at once that it is difficult to guess what the end result will be.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#14 - 2016-11-02 13:11:58 UTC
Careby wrote:
Cista2 wrote:
...NPCs ... mining ore in asteroid belts....
...alpha clone players will mine the belts...


But wait... there's more:

(3) Orcas gain the ability to mine and boost at the same time.

(4) Rorquals with excavators and new defenses redefine low- and null-sec mining.

Now how much would you pay? Don't answer, because you'll also receive:

(5) Engineering Complexes, which could potentially shift much of the manufacturing currently done in highsec to "protected" nullsec systems.

There are so many things happening at once that it is difficult to guess what the end result will be.



The engineering complex is a direct equivalent of the fully upgraded Amarr outpost slash SCSAA. It's also not exactly that much cheaper unless you put down a medium, but well. It's just the older structures being patched out for new ones so we can finally get rid of legacy code. Exact same functionality.
Toobo
Project Fruit House
#15 - 2016-11-02 14:35:09 UTC
We are moving onto a slightly different topic, but engineering complexes, which will be like fully upgraded Amarr outpost, will be available in highsec. That is a huge buff (in terms of production speed and efficiency) for high sec manufacturing. People can pump out stuff faster in highsec than they used to, yet we are always informed that the production quantity is vastly greater than destruction quantity - eve has been this way for long time. Whichever way you look at it, supply of produced goods will increase - engineering complex isk/material sink is a different matter. For healthy EVE economy, there has to be increase in demand/destruction, and introduction of alpha toons is not gonna skyrocket the demand, at least not as much as increased production rate as I see it.

Don't get me wrong, I welcome both alpha concept and engineering complexes, but I'm in the doom and gloom camp and I think We will be in for an economic shock and over supply and crashing prices. I'm even on the minority opinion that PLEX will crash hard over the winter period. It will be very difficult times for traders and producers to make good ISK as markets get screwed over in general. This will not be like he citadel expansion where people could make big ISK with speculations. Majority of businesses will lose ISK as well as their current assets dropping in value. It's going to be hard times for most EVE businesses

Cheers Love! The cavalry's here!
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#16 - 2016-11-02 14:51:24 UTC
The engi complexes will have lower bonuses in highsec than they do in null. Dollar for dollar, they'd be about equivalent to the pos mods we have access to now.
Careby
#17 - 2016-11-02 16:04:16 UTC
Toobo wrote:
We are moving onto a slightly different topic, but engineering complexes, which will be like fully upgraded Amarr outpost, will be available in highsec. That is a huge buff (in terms of production speed and efficiency) for high sec manufacturing...


EC's are relevant to a discussion about ore because of the potential effect of rorqual mining combined with the differences between EC's in and outside of highsec.

You say EC's are a huge buff for highsec manufacturing. I'm curious as to how you reach your conclusion, since mine is somewhat different. First of all I don't think we're likely to see any XL ECs in high sec, party because of the difficulty of defense and partly because of the cost index mechanic. And rigging an EC smaller than an XL results in a somewhat specialized structure.

There's no doubt that an XL EC in a nullsec system with upgraded Amarr Outpost will be a huge buff to manufacturing there, particularly for titans and supers. I can't begin to guess what effect these ECs might have on highsec markets.
Toobo
Project Fruit House
#18 - 2016-11-02 17:01:19 UTC
I wasn't aware EC give different bonuses according yo sec status for the system? I thought it was dependent on size and theoretically you could make the large one in high sec. My bad if I'm wrong on that. I better check the latest updates, but what can be used in HS (stuff thats not carriers/dreads/etc) could be built in HS will full bonuses, was my understanding. But even with less than maximum bonuses, it will open up higher lvl of production capabilities to those who do not currently build from POS in HS. The way I see it is that POS manufacturing was always in-corp thing, whereas public EC in HS will open it up to anybody. So I still assume that more producers will gain access to more efficient production means than it is now. Judging by how fortizar markets with back-up force could persist in less contested areas, I can imagine force/ISK backed large EC in HS operating stably.

Funny variable now though is that now we cannnot have casino backed operations in game, so the ISK and profits will have to earn themselves in game, whether it be used for protection or destruction of a large EC in HS. I know of a Fortizar market project that was backed with wallet, and from what I saw you needed at least tripple the amount of the structure+module cost, to have defence fleet ready to go on op any time. If someone can put down 70-100b for a HS EC hub project, it can be done I believe. Whether there will be someone willing to do that is what we will find out. My bet (although I cant gamble anymore lol) is that it will happen.

Cheers Love! The cavalry's here!
Careby
#19 - 2016-11-02 17:46:06 UTC
Toobo wrote:
...If someone can put down 70-100b for a HS EC hub project, it can be done I believe. Whether there will be someone willing to do that is what we will find out. My bet (although I cant gamble anymore lol) is that it will happen.


Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens. The problem with an industry hub EC is that the more it is used, the more it costs to use it - because of system cost index. Unlike the market citadels, which get more attractive the busier they are.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#20 - 2016-11-02 17:59:45 UTC
Simple math: there are probably more roid belts in EvE than active players. Each belt can keep a mining ship busy for some time.
Then you have anomalies and L4 missions, I used to mine some of them and they kept 2 Hulks busy for a good 2 hours. Each L4 stage may (or may not) have more roids.

The end result, is: either the mining NPCs will be totally pervasive and hungry, or the effects won't be that dramatic.

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