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Dodixie market decline
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Toobo
Project Fruit House
#61 - 2016-10-13 22:28:47 UTC
This thread has been on going for a while, and still at front page so not really a necro, but just updates from my observation and thoughts.

1. I logged into Rens yesterday in what was pretty reasonable EU peak time zone, and the local count was 43. Trade volume's so low that stuff just don't sell much. I am now officially pulling out of Rens. It's just not worth the time and effort to log in there to update orders anymore with such low traffic.

2. Friend of mine do some seeding on far away places from hubs. He went to Dodixie, the nearest so called 'major' hub, and he could not get all the varieties of ammo he wanted/usually bought from there to seed. When a trade 'hub' is lacking ammo for people to buy, there is a serious issue. Especially considering that Dodixie is still unique in that it has lvl 4 Agent right in the trading station.

3. I have done some trading in Amarr over the years too. Amarr now is like what Dodixie used to be when people started to notice Dodixie is declining. I stress that point - Amarr now is not even comparable to Dodixie in its peak. Amarr now is comparable to Dodixie few months ago when it was on its downhill turn.

4. Even Jita trade volumes are not what they used to be. Sure some things still sell like hot cakes, but parts of the specific market segments are dropping already, and I don't see this as only because of pvp meta change or lack of less players logged on, etc.

There was some talk before about how much ISK was removed from the game when Citadels came out, and how ISK was the king now.

I have same sentiments now. Surely people more experienced and clever than me will find good investment opportunities. But for now, just across the board in general terms, I estimate that raw ISK will be very valuable. I do not agree that PLEX will rise and go through the roof with alpha toons coming in and November changes.

Industrial complexes will see more ISK removed from the game, costs for finished products will get cheaper, while influx of alpha toons not helping to revitalise New Eden in a way CCP has hoped.

I see freefall coming. People will sell currently valuable assets for peanuts. People will sell at loss to hold on to ISK than keep things as assets. PLEX will go below 1b again, and will not bounce back for a while except for occasional spikes from manipulations that cannot be sustained for long term.

I'm not saying "EVE is dying", but difficult times are coming for traders. The new complexes and alpha toons will not revitalise or boost the economy as people have hoped for.

I think in for a mid-long term depression.

Doom and gloom (TM)

Cheers Love! The cavalry's here!
The Fukuzawa
New Eden Trade Group
#62 - 2016-10-13 23:25:44 UTC  |  Edited by: The Fukuzawa
I'm starting to think it may have a lot to do with CODE and mercs mass deccing industry corps.

Also, margins are tighter in jita and surrounding citadels why sell your **** anywhere else.

! ! ! New Eden Trade Group is paying monthly interest to investors, contact me if interested ! ! !

If you already assume we are scammers without looking at what we offer objectively, go ahead and F*** off.

Thank you, that is all.
Tipa Riot
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#63 - 2016-10-14 08:05:19 UTC
Can we somehow figure out what artificial volume was generated just by the low margin / high volume station traders?

I'm my own NPC alt.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#64 - 2016-10-14 12:41:14 UTC
Tipa Riot wrote:
Can we somehow figure out what artificial volume was generated just by the low margin / high volume station traders?


We mostly don't sell to each other.

Judging by the amounts purchased, I would estimate that 70% of my stock comes from manufacturers, 20% from looters (including both ratting loot and PVP loot), and 10% from other traders (usually when I've posted a buy order too high, but sometimes they are just desperate for liquidity).

And on the selling front, 80% goes to people buying to use, 10% to people buying for resale, and 10% to speculative hoarders.

This comes from analyzing the amounts bought (e.g. someone selling me 100 of a module probably built them; someone selling me 2 probably just looted them) and sold (someone buying 1-8 Light Neutron Blaster II probably wants to use them, someone buying a multiple of 8 is probably buying bulk gank supplies, someone buying an entire stack is often buying for resale).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#65 - 2016-10-14 12:46:21 UTC
The Fukuzawa wrote:
I'm starting to think it may have a lot to do with CODE and mercs mass deccing industry corps.

Also, margins are tighter in jita and surrounding citadels why sell your **** anywhere else.



Wardecs encourage geographical spreading. If Marmite dec you, you can usually operate completely unhindered in backwater areas of contiguous highsec but you would want to stay clear of Jita, Dodi, Amarr and maybe the two microhubs.

We have more of an impact in CODE (and understanding CODE's impact is the main way I make ISK on the Jita to Dodi export business) but we can't take credit for these changes in the landscape. In particular we have had very little activity near Hek, and Hek has fallen from hub to microhub status without us there.

If Amarr and Dodi do follow the others down to microhub status, though, the next Burn Jita will be incredible.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Skia Aumer
Planetary Harvesting and Processing LLC
#66 - 2016-10-14 17:14:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Skia Aumer
Tipa Riot wrote:
Can we somehow figure out what artificial volume was generated just by the low margin / high volume station traders?

I can only give an estimate of production to trade ratio. The data is taken from September economic report.
Total production per month is 85T, and total trade is 596T.
I think station trader resell mostly PLEX and injectors. Those are in the league of their own, and this trade doesnt really affect the "usual" economy.

Update:
Looks like this report does not include PLEX trades. But includes skill extractors and injectors.

Update2:
Alright, I crunched some numbers more carefully. Time period: 01 April 2016 to 30 April 2016 (30 days):
Total trade = 850T, of which
PLEX trade = 240T
skill injector trade = 182T
skill extractor trade = 56T
T1 module trade (which I consider a bug, it cannot be that large) = 48T
all the rest items trade = 323T
Total production = 82T
The Fukuzawa
New Eden Trade Group
#67 - 2016-10-14 22:15:20 UTC  |  Edited by: The Fukuzawa
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
The Fukuzawa wrote:
I'm starting to think it may have a lot to do with CODE and mercs mass deccing industry corps.

Also, margins are tighter in jita and surrounding citadels why sell your **** anywhere else.



Wardecs encourage geographical spreading. If Marmite dec you, you can usually operate completely unhindered in backwater areas of contiguous highsec but you would want to stay clear of Jita, Dodi, Amarr and maybe the two microhubs.

We have more of an impact in CODE (and understanding CODE's impact is the main way I make ISK on the Jita to Dodi export business) but we can't take credit for these changes in the landscape. In particular we have had very little activity near Hek, and Hek has fallen from hub to microhub status without us there.

If Amarr and Dodi do follow the others down to microhub status, though, the next Burn Jita will be incredible.



CODE and mercs camp the pipes to all the hubs, it has to be having an impact, but im sure without code/mercs hubs would contine to decline

! ! ! New Eden Trade Group is paying monthly interest to investors, contact me if interested ! ! !

If you already assume we are scammers without looking at what we offer objectively, go ahead and F*** off.

Thank you, that is all.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#68 - 2016-10-15 00:17:00 UTC
Toobo wrote:
This thread has been on going for a while, and still at front page so not really a necro, but just updates from my observation and thoughts.

1. I logged into Rens yesterday in what was pretty reasonable EU peak time zone, and the local count was 43. Trade volume's so low that stuff just don't sell much. I am now officially pulling out of Rens. It's just not worth the time and effort to log in there to update orders anymore with such low traffic.

2. Friend of mine do some seeding on far away places from hubs. He went to Dodixie, the nearest so called 'major' hub, and he could not get all the varieties of ammo he wanted/usually bought from there to seed. When a trade 'hub' is lacking ammo for people to buy, there is a serious issue. Especially considering that Dodixie is still unique in that it has lvl 4 Agent right in the trading station.

3. I have done some trading in Amarr over the years too. Amarr now is like what Dodixie used to be when people started to notice Dodixie is declining. I stress that point - Amarr now is not even comparable to Dodixie in its peak. Amarr now is comparable to Dodixie few months ago when it was on its downhill turn.

4. Even Jita trade volumes are not what they used to be. Sure some things still sell like hot cakes, but parts of the specific market segments are dropping already, and I don't see this as only because of pvp meta change or lack of less players logged on, etc.

There was some talk before about how much ISK was removed from the game when Citadels came out, and how ISK was the king now.

I have same sentiments now. Surely people more experienced and clever than me will find good investment opportunities. But for now, just across the board in general terms, I estimate that raw ISK will be very valuable. I do not agree that PLEX will rise and go through the roof with alpha toons coming in and November changes.

Industrial complexes will see more ISK removed from the game, costs for finished products will get cheaper, while influx of alpha toons not helping to revitalise New Eden in a way CCP has hoped.

I see freefall coming. People will sell currently valuable assets for peanuts. People will sell at loss to hold on to ISK than keep things as assets. PLEX will go below 1b again, and will not bounce back for a while except for occasional spikes from manipulations that cannot be sustained for long term.

I'm not saying "EVE is dying", but difficult times are coming for traders. The new complexes and alpha toons will not revitalise or boost the economy as people have hoped for.

I think in for a mid-long term depression.

Doom and gloom (TM)



Market makers have pretty much pulled out of some of the previously moving items in Jita already. Buy orders aren't getting replenished, but there seems to be a bit of a backlog of supply. Interesting times, and quite a stark contrast to five months ago. Although, I suspect that might just be due to the summer slump in player numbers. The spread for those gewgaws is pretty good right, but if nobody is buying them, people disembark from the market.
Toobo
Project Fruit House
#69 - 2016-10-15 16:28:10 UTC
It is interesting times indeed. How to make ISK in a shrinking markets with demand falling and people dumping stocks. Some would consider this goos time to buy, but at the same time Alpha toons cannot increae the demand for T2/T3 and highend gears, unless they do go Omega. Player count probably go up with alpha toons but the skill cap is an interesting barrier that limits the impact of population growth in demand for certain product lines.

Cheers Love! The cavalry's here!
The Fukuzawa
New Eden Trade Group
#70 - 2016-10-15 23:03:38 UTC  |  Edited by: The Fukuzawa
Toobo wrote:
It is interesting times indeed. How to make ISK in a shrinking markets with demand falling and people dumping stocks. Some would consider this goos time to buy, but at the same time Alpha toons cannot increae the demand for T2/T3 and highend gears, unless they do go Omega. Player count probably go up with alpha toons but the skill cap is an interesting barrier that limits the impact of population growth in demand for certain product lines.


Id imagine that CCP is not only hoping that alphas are more likely to stick around now that the trial is unlimited, but also are hoping to pull veterans who have moved on back into the game full time. I'm sure many others may sub for a few months before they take a break again. I can see vets subbing up for a month or two at a time just to reinforce their friends if needed, or for an offensive.

This expansion allows vets who are busier in life to stay in contact with the community without paying a sub. That is what i like about it most.

! ! ! New Eden Trade Group is paying monthly interest to investors, contact me if interested ! ! !

If you already assume we are scammers without looking at what we offer objectively, go ahead and F*** off.

Thank you, that is all.
Toobo
Project Fruit House
#71 - 2016-10-16 06:22:16 UTC
Fukuzawa, yeah I have originally been sceptical about Alpha accounts, but I've grown more positive about it. I'm unsure how much this will translate into sustainable growth, but if nothing else, it will definitely bring some old friends back, which is great.

Cheers Love! The cavalry's here!
Skia Aumer
Planetary Harvesting and Processing LLC
#72 - 2016-10-16 15:06:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Skia Aumer
What if it's not a decline, but rather a transformation of markets?

Let's take a look at the recent economic report again, and compare it to the number of active players. A year ago we had roughly the same online numbers, but the production rate back then was much weaker than it is right now. You may argue that production per player ratio might fluctuate, but no. If we trace back as far as the available data goes, this ration seems to be pretty consistent. Anyway, today's economy output is the same as in January '15, when we had 45k peak online - but we dont see it in the market. So where did all the money go?

My guess is that people are producing (and buying) new toys.
The previous big expansion gave us some: the citadels and revamped capships. They are not as numerous, but they are quite expensive. As a consequence, we've seen a liquidity shock on the onset of the expansion - which caused unprecedented drop in PLEX price. But evidently, that was not sustainable, as PLEX regained its value. What followed was the next round of liquidity squeeze, but now instead of PLEX sale consumers refrain from buying FMCGs.

What's more interesting IMO, is that very soon we'll see a new set of toys: ECs and Rorqual. If CCP does it right, they can be very desirable for a new layer of consumers. That is, we still have Citadel toys for PVP folks and we'll have the new ones for indy guys on top of that. Well, that can cause a serious outflow of cash from the traditional markets. And it probably will. Also, remember that the new toys compete with FMCGs not only in terms of liquidity, but also in terms of attention span. Who wants to build ammo when you can build a cool space station instead?

So yeah. Doom and gloom. Sell your traditional stocks as fast as you can. As for me, I'll take a look at how I can take a better share of those new markets.
Ishido Attaka
Purity of the Iron Cold
#73 - 2016-10-16 16:24:13 UTC
CCP tryed to make null industry independent from the high sec market hubs and succeeded. Nothing more. Now producers in null regions has all their BPO safe and materials in boosted null ore. High sec markets, except Jita will decline, cause from null producers point of view it does not matter if they move stuff to Jita or Dodixie. Just few jumps more out of few dozens of jumps.
Toobo
Project Fruit House
#74 - 2016-10-16 17:29:43 UTC
Skia, good point. I haven't compared the data myself, but if as you say the production value is roughly similar, while we have more new high value things to build (and we see them enough in space already to assume that they are built en masse), then it follows that FMCG production is lower than before. However, I think there are enough stock of these goods in market and people's hangars already that I don't see the supply falling short of demand any time soon. What's also interesting is that new EC will give bonus to producing these small stuff in HS. But where will the demand will come from, and will it be enough to balance out the increased production speed and material savings. :p

Cheers Love! The cavalry's here!
The Fukuzawa
New Eden Trade Group
#75 - 2016-10-16 21:28:57 UTC
makes sense guys, good talk

! ! ! New Eden Trade Group is paying monthly interest to investors, contact me if interested ! ! !

If you already assume we are scammers without looking at what we offer objectively, go ahead and F*** off.

Thank you, that is all.
Agondray
Avenger Mercenaries
VOID Intergalactic Forces
#76 - 2016-10-20 08:52:07 UTC
I quit hauling to places when the gankers became highly emergent, I cant even go places in a t1 bb with out being shot at, my only hauler I use now is my runners

"Sarcasm is the Recourse of a weak mind." -Dr. Smith
erg cz
Federal Jegerouns
#77 - 2016-10-20 15:19:46 UTC
It seems to me, that not only market in gallente high sec space is evaporating, but also industry cost indexes go down...

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SJ Astralana
Syncore
#78 - 2016-10-20 22:53:11 UTC
I've just seen a current Market Research Report on Dodixie, and it's the best market I've ever seen. With a proper understanding of T1 production, it's at the moment an absolute isk printing opportunity. I made a third of a tril in Amarr; only out of courtesy do I not personally go here to slaughter it.

Again, the limiting factor is the number of items that can be produced in a day multiplied by their profit. The maximum factor is the daily average volume multiplied by profit, divided by active competitors. The lessor of the two will tell a producer what to build, and what BPOs to research. Every factor is available through CREST. Advanced concepts include managing capital, logistics, and price change strategies.



Hyperdrive your production business: Eve Production Manager

TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#79 - 2016-10-21 14:04:17 UTC
erg cz wrote:
It seems to me, that not only market in gallente high sec space is evaporating, but also industry cost indexes go down...


Is the general public aware of Cost indexes? I mean, is the bulk production of stuff dependent on it?

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Tipa Riot
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#80 - 2016-10-21 14:34:20 UTC
SJ Astralana wrote:
I've just seen a current Market Research Report on Dodixie

Mind sharing the report? Twisted

I'm my own NPC alt.