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[ARC] Serpentis capital technology transfer

Author
Neph
Crimson Serpent Syndicate
#41 - 2016-08-28 03:55:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Neph
An argument of this sort, on the IGS? I'm kinda impressed.

You know, maybe ARC would find cost-saving potential in outsourcing their business strategy meetings to the general public--this thoroughly circular argument has certainly worn the same stale points over and over again as well as the best hired professional "big-picture plan" bullshitters could ever hope to.

~ Gariushi YC110 // Midular YC115 // Yanala YC115 ~

"Orte Jaitovalte sitasuyti ne obuetsa useuut ishu. Ketsiak ishiulyn." -Yakiya Tovil-Toba-taisoka

Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#42 - 2016-08-28 04:10:59 UTC
I will admit, our worst critics do seem to be the ones who neither contribute nor initiate a competing project.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Neph
Crimson Serpent Syndicate
#43 - 2016-08-28 04:40:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Neph
Lenkkisai dei kisku, uoti maatsotto dei saika.

"The surest captain is the one who watches from the shore."

~ Gariushi YC110 // Midular YC115 // Yanala YC115 ~

"Orte Jaitovalte sitasuyti ne obuetsa useuut ishu. Ketsiak ishiulyn." -Yakiya Tovil-Toba-taisoka

Ayallah
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#44 - 2016-08-28 04:58:47 UTC
Ollie Rundle wrote:
I'm not sure you're as current with the pricing trends of the items in question as you believe yourself to be.

While the moving average over 20 days is at best a crude tool it works well enough to negate the argument that ARC's exclusive transfer of this tech to State interests is somehow raising the cost of the SMCMs for the benefit of any other party.

Looking at the Forge regional market prices alone one will note that the sell price of the microprocessors has fallen to less than 50% of what it was at its peak in early July. Further to this, the 20-day average price has been stable at approximately 500 thousand ISK for nearly all of August. Speaking from first hand experience and with the benefit of having reviewed the SCC's daily data releases I can state definitively that while ARC's operations were ongoing the average daily price of the microprocessors was 700-800 thousand ISK per unit. Comparatively the current prices - which your argument relies upon - actually represent a significant decrease on what ARC traders paid per unit.

The Forge regional market exhibited the widest daily variation in volumes and pricing points during the ARC operation. Jita's standard 0.01 isk day-trading tactics were consistently overwhelmed by mercantile groups and individuals throwing out far larger margins in order to aggressively outbid competing interests.

The next largest regional markets - those of Domain and Sinq Laison - along with smaller local trade-hubs were far more stable both during the operation and following its conclusion. It would be less than honest to claim that the same market cooling and stabilization of pricing that has occurred in the Forge has also been observed in those markets. However, it would be equally inaccurate to say that prices in these other markets have increased or escalated in any sense. Instead they have remained at the same average price as they were during the month of July while the trade volume has dropped away sharply.

It's this decrease in trade volume of SMCMs that is in fact the common trend seen across all regional markets in the SCC data. I'm hypothesizing that it is lessened demand - in the setting of relative peace following the large scale conflicts of earlier this year - that is principally responsible for the stabilization of the market prices cluster-wide.

Should our current period of peace and prosperity change then those of us who watch the markets might reasonably expect prices to climb as demand shifts to a seller's market but this is irrelevant to the current situation. The slippery slope chaos of capsuleer politics is neither ARC's concern nor within the ability of our cadre of amateur soothsayers to predict.
Allow me to catch my breath before laughing. We have yet to see the dump of Serpentis LP into blueprints as they are not yet released by the Serpentis. The action of the market, now during the production of a total of fifteen Serpentis SuperCapitals at high ME/PE is merely a forethought.

If you pay more attention than a shallow interpretation of the opening moves of a supply war in Jita:
The supply represented in this contract is sixteen timesthe total market supply in Jita and ten times the total amount ever moved in trade volume through the hub. When demand starts to rise as the most loyal Serpentis agents begin dumping LP into blueprints and the first start to be produced either price is going to rise sharply or those with large stockpiles are going to have to dump their stock.

Goddess of the IGS

As strength goes.

Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#45 - 2016-08-28 05:12:43 UTC
Fifteen, Ayallah? Five titans, five supercarriers, potentially hundreds or thousands of dreadnoughts. Even I'm personally in possession of two dreadnought blueprints, and I have no intention of producing capital ships.

The barrier to production isn't the SMCM, but instead the remarkably high component requirements, which are presumably because of exceedingly tight QA controls during the production process.

That said, ultimately, while I completely understand that ARC could enrich itself greatly off this stockpile of equipment, that's not the point. The point is to hopefully jump-start an imperial capital ship development programme. It might be wishful thinking, but I'm hoping this rather large stockpile of equipment helps in that matter.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?

Ayallah
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#46 - 2016-08-28 05:21:35 UTC
Korsavius wrote:
Jade Constantine would be proud of you, Ayallah.

Anyway, that is a big wall of words coming from someone who claims their entire purpose for the continuous arguing of erroneous points is all just to try and convince ARC to sell the microprocessors on the open market. The bottom line is, even if this intention was genuine, why does it matter to you? You are not in ARC, nor are you an ARC coordinator. You have no say in how ARC conducts its business, and, I'm sure, your opinions on how they should conduct their business have about the same amount of relevance as a fedo on some backwater mining outpost.
If I knew who that was maybe it would be a topical insult.

I have already twice now acknowledged my position Korsavius. I assume however that ARC is an organization that can survive being told what it does not want to hear about the consequences of its actions. Accepting it seems to be another matter.
Arrendis wrote:
Don't be silly. The intention would be to improve the performance of standard fire-control systems in Caldari capitals and supercapitals, or to see how the optimization can best be approximated for subcapital use. The fact that you can't understand how software and logic optimization is not, in fact, a unique and beautiful snowflake that can't be translated to other applications really does speak volumes about why you should leave engineering issues to the Sebiestor.
Yes Arrendis, fire control optimized circuits for capital hybrids mated with stasis webification optimizations is going to improve the performance of Caldari Capitals. But continue to pretend that this is a proprietary technology in any way different from that used all over New Eden. An optimized circuit. Maybe bringing race into this will help you win the argument.
Arrendis wrote:
This assumes that there are no innovations in these microprocessors that are not present in the microprocessors that have been available for years. The very concept that the state of the art has stood still, especially in an environment like the Guardian Angel labs, for that long is patently ridiculous.
I am absolutely positive that the Guardian Angels have not found a shorter path between two points than a straight line.
Arrendis wrote:
Sure, if you're just using a completely unexceptional wrench as your example. Apple and Cucumbers, Ayallah. But I'm really not surprised that you're stuck in predictable, well-worn trains of thought. Not everyone can be crazy enough to see the possibilities.
The possibilities of the State refitting their capital fleet to hybrids and high-powered stasis webifiers?
Arrendis [i wrote:
While you're arguing against the idea that other corporations might seek to remove the bottleneck by producing knockoffs![/i] Do you not even realize you're arguing both sides of this and claiming to be completely consistent?
The very moment the State begins to produce


If I did not hand ARC processors then my criticisms are invalid. I suppose I cannot criticize Heth unless I helped raise him to power? Or maybe I cannot criticize CONCORD's decision making unless I am on the inner council. We have actually come to that.

Goddess of the IGS

As strength goes.

Ayallah
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#47 - 2016-08-28 05:22:21 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
Fifteen, Ayallah? Five titans, five supercarriers
My mistake I thought they gave out ten Vendettas.

Goddess of the IGS

As strength goes.

Ollie Rundle
#48 - 2016-08-28 06:02:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Ollie Rundle
Ayallah wrote:
When demand starts to rise as the most loyal Serpentis agents begin dumping LP into blueprints and the first start to be produced either price is going to rise sharply or those with large stockpiles are going to have to dump their stock.

You'll note that I alluded to this exact point in the last paragraph of my post and summarily dismissed it as irrelevant to the current intentions of ARC's acquisition project.

We cannot and do not seek to predict what events might occur in the future that may exert influence on demand for the microprocessors. Should a hypothetical pilot in a similarly hypothetical null-sec alliance need to pay more than she, he or they are happy to for their new Serpentis capital ships that is their lot to live with and none of our concern.

In Ms. Priano's own words this is simply the jumping off point in trying to start a development project. It may or may not bear fruit and only time will see to that. I can reassure you that your critique of ARC's actions in this respect has been noted and given all the respect and consideration it is due.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#49 - 2016-08-28 06:13:59 UTC
Ayallah wrote:
Yes Arrendis, fire control optimized circuits for capital hybrids mated with stasis webification optimizations is going to improve the performance of Caldari Capitals. But continue to pretend that this is a proprietary technology in any way different from that used all over New Eden. An optimized circuit.


Oh, for the love of... You're being idiotic, and continuing to assert that there are no innovations in these microprocessors that have not appeared elsewhere, and there's simply no evidence of that. None. Please, go through all of the hardware and software architecture in these - every single subroutine and every single circuit layout, and demonstrate how every single element has already been done elsewhere, and how absolutely none of it could possibly ever be repurposed. It's a ridiculous proposition on its face. If we accept your premise, then no innovation is ever possible, because the technology we have is all very well understood, so nobody could ever come up with a way to translate those principles into a new application. You can't know - categorically cannot know - what ideas will occur to the engineers studying this technology.


Quote:
I am absolutely positive that the Guardian Angels have not found a shorter path between two points than a straight line.


What an incredible and innovative strawman you've set up there using only oversimplification!

Quote:
Arrendis [i wrote:
While you're arguing against the idea that other corporations might seek to remove the bottleneck by producing knockoffs![/i] Do you not even realize you're arguing both sides of this and claiming to be completely consistent?
The very moment the State begins to produce


If I did not hand ARC processors then my criticisms are invalid. I suppose I cannot criticize Heth unless I helped raise him to power? Or maybe I cannot criticize CONCORD's decision making unless I am on the inner council. We have actually come to that.


I'm gonna go out on a limb here and suggest that you lost a chunk in your froth-flecked rage at the idea that someone isn't letting Pandemic Legion buy up all the shinies they can at the lowest cost possible, because you pretty blatantly cut off there in mid-sentence, and then appear to be responding to someone else completely.
Ayallah
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#50 - 2016-08-28 06:42:10 UTC
Ollie Rundle wrote:
You'll note that I alluded to this exact point in the last paragraph of my post and summarily dismissed it as irrelevant to the current intentions of ARC's acquisition project.

We cannot and do not seek to predict what events might take place in the future that may or may not influence demand for the microprocessors. Should a hypothetical pilot in a similarly hypothetical null-sec alliance need to pay more than she, he or they are happy to for their new Serpentis capital ships that is their lot to live with and none of our concern.

In Ms. Priano's own words this is simply the jumping off point in trying to start a development project. It may or may not bear fruit and only time will see to that. I can reassure you that your critique of ARC's actions in this respect has been noted and given all the respect and consideration it is due.
Paying more pilot to pilot is as I said already less than a percent of the production cost and irrelevant. The only one that benefits from a less than percent increase in global price is the suppliers. Namely, the Angel Cartel and the Serpentis. And no, it will not bear fruit. The direction the market will go is immediately and perfectly apparent, in the future the only way to obtain these will be not to raid warehouses of hundreds of them but to get them piecemeal from the wreckage of Serpentis Capitals. If you do not believe in the future demand for these ships I am afraid I do not have the time to educate you on capital warfare and why they are valued.
Arrendis wrote:
Oh, for the love of... You're being idiotic, and continuing to assert that there are no innovations in these microprocessors that have not appeared elsewhere, and there's simply no evidence of that. None. Please, go through all of the hardware and software architecture in these - every single subroutine and every single circuit layout, and demonstrate how every single element has already been done elsewhere, and how absolutely none of it could possibly ever be repurposed. It's a ridiculous proposition on its face. If we accept your premise, then no innovation is ever possible, because the technology we have is all very well understood, so nobody could ever come up with a way to translate those principles into a new application. You can't know - categorically cannot know - what ideas will occur to the engineers studying this technology.
Any analysis of these microprocessors will yield what is already known about them as they are built on the same principles used all over New Eden for decades. You, like everyone else who refuses to face the economic and political consequences of this delivery can continue to pretend it is some vanguard of new development all you like.

Arrendis wrote:
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and suggest that you lost a chunk in your froth-flecked rage at the idea that someone isn't letting Pandemic Legion buy up all the shinies they can at the lowest cost possible, because you pretty blatantly cut off there in mid-sentence, and then appear to be responding to someone else completely.
The forum ate the last section of my post apparently as it went "over quote limit." It was in fact a reply to Makoto. What I was saying to you was that the moment the State starts producing microprocessors for the Serpentis I will retrace my statements and objections.

Goddess of the IGS

As strength goes.

Elmund Egivand
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#51 - 2016-08-28 08:13:10 UTC
Matar and Pator! Ayallah, you seem to have never heard of the term 'reverse engineering'!

Look, the most important part about trying to figure out these microcontrollers ISN'T about figuring out WHAT they do, but HOW they do. To do that, we have to crack the thing open, look through the architecture of these chips and crack their algorithms and see what they all do and how they work together! In engineering, it's not enough to look at just the overall picture, you have to dig into the nitty gritty of it all!

The point of using these microcontrollers is to crack them open, see how they are designed and how they are programmed and I mean studying every line of code and every layer of molecular dye, and then figure out how they all work together to allow these microcontrollers do. Then we can start figuring out how to tweak the parameters or/and how to apply these systems on *everything else*.

I am not going to argue about the economics. That isn't an area I have any level of expertise in.

A Minmatar warship is like a rusting Beetle with 500 horsepower Cardillac engines in the rear, armour plating bolted to chassis and a M2 Browning stuck on top.

Yarosara Ruil
#52 - 2016-08-28 09:38:49 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:
Matar and Pator! Ayallah, you seem to have never heard of the term 'reverse engineering'!

Look, the most important part about trying to figure out these microcontrollers ISN'T about figuring out WHAT they do, but HOW they do. To do that, we have to crack the thing open, look through the architecture of these chips and crack their algorithms and see what they all do and how they work together! In engineering, it's not enough to look at just the overall picture, you have to dig into the nitty gritty of it all!


That's what I said! Bleh...
Jaret Victorian
Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#53 - 2016-08-28 09:45:09 UTC
Yarosara Ruil wrote:
Elmund Egivand wrote:
Matar and Pator! Ayallah, you seem to have never heard of the term 'reverse engineering'!

Look, the most important part about trying to figure out these microcontrollers ISN'T about figuring out WHAT they do, but HOW they do. To do that, we have to crack the thing open, look through the architecture of these chips and crack their algorithms and see what they all do and how they work together! In engineering, it's not enough to look at just the overall picture, you have to dig into the nitty gritty of it all!


That's what I said! Bleh...

Me three.
Evelyn Valate
Church of The Crimson Saviour
#54 - 2016-08-28 09:45:53 UTC
how does ARC handing over a bunch of Serpentis doodads to the State make lots of money for Serpentis ? I don't understand ?

because like, if the Serpentis doodads are needed to build Serpentis-type ships, then like, the source of doodads will be shooting down Serpentis ships, so capsuleers wanting Serpentis-type ships would shoot all the Serpentis ships they can find ? So handing the stuff to the State, makes shooting Serpentis ships more profitable, so more people would do it ? And that'd be bad for Serpentis ?

I don't understand what's going on.
Ollie Rundle
#55 - 2016-08-28 11:07:00 UTC
Evelyn Valate wrote:
how does ARC handing over a bunch of Serpentis doodads to the State make lots of money for Serpentis ? I don't understand ?

because like, if the Serpentis doodads are needed to build Serpentis-type ships, then like, the source of doodads will be shooting down Serpentis ships, so capsuleers wanting Serpentis-type ships would shoot all the Serpentis ships they can find ? So handing the stuff to the State, makes shooting Serpentis ships more profitable, so more people would do it ? And that'd be bad for Serpentis ?

Correct and already noted by several others within the thread.

To clarify what's going on here we need to compare two of Ayallah's quotes. Here's the first indication we had as to why Ayallah felt aggrieved by ARC's transfer of SCMCs to the State:

Ayallah wrote:
Building Serpentis Supercapitals is extraordinarily expensive and is only going to get more so. Especially if you withhold half a million of them from the open market.

You are actually making my life worse right now.

Here's the more recent one:

Ayallah wrote:
Paying more pilot to pilot is as I said already less than a percent of the production cost and irrelevant. The only one that benefits from a less than percent increase in global price is the suppliers. Namely, the Angel Cartel and the Serpentis.

The latter is the palatable option, the one that attempts to cast her position in a far more selfless light than the former. Unfortunately the former is ultimately the more honest one. Both - to some degree - contradict each other which might well explain the confusion generated for some watching the discussion.

In summary:

ARC made her life worse by transferring the SCMCs rather than keeping them on the SCC market at a price she found agreeable. That's not ARC's concern of course but she's spent three pages trying to convince everyone that it should be.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#56 - 2016-08-28 13:59:37 UTC
Elmund Egivand wrote:
A lot of really sensible stuff.


Don't waste your breath. She's firmly into 'I'm right and the entire history of human engineering is wrong' territory now.
Ayallah
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#57 - 2016-08-28 15:35:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Ayallah
I never portrayed myself as selfless Ollie. What I said was not in opposition, as the supply of researched BPC's dwindles the price of the Vendetta is going to rise by nine to twelve billion ISK. The cost of the Microcontrollers is less than two billion ISK out of over a hundred billion on an unresearched BPC. You claim I was attempting to obfuscate, yet the very first thing I did was elaborate on my own personal bias on the matter.

And Arrendis, claiming now to represent the entire history of engineering is far more arrogant than anything I ever claimed. I claim to know how a microprocessor functions and you argue that I am somehow making a more bold claim than I am stopping the development of human engineering by arguing a specialized part is just a specialized part.

Five more pages will solve nothing. I urge ARC again, engrave the shipment of microprocessors with serial numbers if you cannot be convinced to sell them. Far better, take the two hundred and sixty billion isk and use it to fund your operations and trust that any researcher who wants one can purchase one when the supply available is multiplied by sixteen.

I am sure there are more laboratories looking to purchase them than are represented by the corporations you chose to contact.

Goddess of the IGS

As strength goes.

Arrendis
TK Corp
#58 - 2016-08-28 15:39:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Arrendis
Ayallah wrote:
And Arrendis, claiming now to represent the entire history of engineering is far more arrogant than anything I ever claimed. I claim to know how a microprocessor functions and you argue that I am somehow making a more bold claim than I am stopping the development of human engineering by arguing a specialized part is just a specialized part.


You're arguing that there is no possible way that someone who is taking a look at one of these 'specialized parts' for the first time could hit on something nobody else has seen, or be inspired to think of something nobody else has thought of, by the convergence of being exposed to this architecture and optimization, and their prior life experiences. So, yeah, sorry, you're not just claiming to know how a microprocessor functions, you're claiming to be able to rule out any innovation on the part of people looking into these microprocessors.

Which means even as you claim you're not, you're making that bold of a claim. And every time you try to move the goalposts and say 'that's not what I was saying', it's still what you're saying.
Ayallah
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#59 - 2016-08-28 18:57:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Ayallah
Because they are not new technology Arrendis. Yes, someone could innovate a new LED by looking at a 5mm LED but they could do it just easily by looking at a 2mm one. We have been building Serpentis ships for years and they have been around for decades.

Honestly I am tired of listening to you insist this is some vanguard new innovation that needs to be studied. I never moved that "goalpost" and in fact, it makes no sense for you to label it as a "goal." Perhaps you are just reciting forum language knee jerk now. The discussion is clearly over.

Goddess of the IGS

As strength goes.

Neph
Crimson Serpent Syndicate
#60 - 2016-08-29 00:19:28 UTC
Maybe I'm slow, but I still fail to see how the business of ARC's property is the business of anybody not in ARC leadership.

That said, I'm going to echo Ayallah here.

The discussion is clearly over.

~ Gariushi YC110 // Midular YC115 // Yanala YC115 ~

"Orte Jaitovalte sitasuyti ne obuetsa useuut ishu. Ketsiak ishiulyn." -Yakiya Tovil-Toba-taisoka