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Every year, there are less users playing, why??

First post
Author
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#861 - 2016-08-03 07:12:46 UTC
Geronimo McVain wrote:
Lex Gabinia wrote:

Yep - that's now EVE works.

There is in game help chat channel, there is New Character QA on these forums, there are subforums for industrial, wormholes, missions, etc. There are numerous player run websites/guides and a vibrant EVE reddit.

All the information, and there is a ridiculous amount of it, is available but not without any effort. The complexity is what makes the game playable long term. This is not a game with a defined starting and end point. That is why people can play it for 13 years.

Yes it is Eves way now. The problem is not the complexity but the missing help to deal with it. Why dos even a simple shooter has a tutorial that tells you the basics of game mechanic but Eve doesn't even tell you how to properly fit a ship? Just a copy of the Uni Wiki sides about shield and armor tanking would be sufficient. Why does it tell you how to manufacture and research things when this career only becomes a real choice after 3-6 month if you have the money to invest? You are using a computer which is only really usable when you hide all the programming stuff from the user. You can either be a user or a programmer but most people don't have the time to be both. Windows is ultra complex but hides it from 99% of the users.
What does it do if there are some storys that pulls the noob in and tells him what to do instead of kicking him out and just let him find his way? It doesn't touch the complexity it just helps him to learn a complex game. What you are proposing, and what Eve is doing is as if someone wants to learn an instrument and just toss him some notes and tell him the relevant stuff may be found in the Internet.


None of this necessitates at change of mechanics and requires only letting new players know about things like the Eve Uni Wiki and other sources of information.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#862 - 2016-08-03 07:14:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Teckos Pech wrote:
Caleb Seremshur wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Lucy Lollipops wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:

Order of retention, longest to shortest was,

Killed illegally, killed legally, not killed at all.

Other results were that 85.5% do not die in the first 15 days. 13.5% were killed legally, and the remaining 1% were ganked.

Take away:

1. 1% of new players are ganked in their first 15 days.
2. Players who are ganked will tend to stick with the game longer.
3. All the other whining to the contrary in this thread has **** all for data or analysis, so you can have a nice cup of STFU.
4. New players are not being slaughtered wholesale. That narrative is just a bullshit lie.
5. Yes, this is counter intuitive, but that is why we have mathematics and statistics, so please, enjoy that cup of STFU.



So they keep saying ganked players stick longer to the game, basing this on a 1% statistic?

I have no words...


Yeah, maybe you need a course in statistics. That is based on 8,000 players.


80,000*0.01 = 800.




Still it is good enough.

Edit:
To be clear if 2,500 is a good enough sample for 5.2 million customers then 800 is fine if we have 500,000 customers.

Everyone wants to rubbish the CCP analysis...but then again those people also have an agenda to push.

And it is more data and analysis that the "ganking is bad" side has.

So lets go with the side with no data, no analysis and has an agenda they want to push. Roll


Roll

Don't give up your day job mate...

NB

I repeat so even you lot can get it, I am focused on real hisec based players, people who spend nearly all their time in hisec, that is the sample I am interested in.

There are many reasons why Red Frog are not representative of that sample, only people who have no idea about using statistics would think that directly correlates. However the reduction in freight jobs between 2015 and 2014 is very interesting and of course the increase in failed contracts in the same period.

That study of 15 day old playres was used by gankers to say ganking has no impact on player retention which you cannot say from that data sample, doing so proves that you have no idea.

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#863 - 2016-08-03 07:32:15 UTC
Dracvlad wrote:


Roll

Don't give up your day job mate...


And what have you got? Oh yeah, nothing besides some anecdotes. Roll

You are about to take Dinsdale's crown.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#864 - 2016-08-03 07:45:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Teckos Pech wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:


Roll

Don't give up your day job mate...


And what have you got? Oh yeah, nothing besides some anecdotes. Roll

You are about to take Dinsdale's crown.


You think 800 15 day old characters is meaningful, facepalm... It represents purely what it says it does, that within the trial period being ganked had no impact on those new players and was even beneficial.

CCP Rise was only interested in new players those trying the game for the first time.

Dinsdale was actually spot on in terms of what he said would happen to Eve.

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#865 - 2016-08-03 07:58:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Dracvlad wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:


Roll

Don't give up your day job mate...


And what have you got? Oh yeah, nothing besides some anecdotes. Roll

You are about to take Dinsdale's crown.


You think 800 15 day old characters is meaningful, facepalm... It represents purely what it says it does, that within the trial period being ganked had no impact on those new players and was even beneficial.

CCP Rise was only interested in new players those trying the game for the first time.

Dinsdale was actually spot on in terms of what he said would happen to Eve.


Thank you for displaying your ignorance of statistics.

And again, you have literally, nothing. No data, no analysis, no summary statistics, nothing...you have literally **** all.

Keep telling us that nothing trumps something.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Jasmine Deer
Perkone
Caldari State
#866 - 2016-08-03 08:04:41 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:



So lets go with the side with no data, no analysis and has an agenda they want to push.


The data belongs to CCP. There is disagreement on the analysis. You don't have an agenda ?
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#867 - 2016-08-03 08:18:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Jasmine Deer wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:



So lets go with the side with no data, no analysis and has an agenda they want to push.


The data belongs to CCP. There is disagreement on the analysis. You don't have an agenda ?


If the data and analysis showed that ganking was causing new players to leave the game I'd be open to ideas on how to mitigate that problem. But it doesn't. And I doubt CCP is wiling to cling to a view that would mean a loss of revenues and profits. Sure maybe they would, but you'd better have a good narrative for that.

Right now the other side has nothing, and I mean nothing. No data. No analysis. They can't even be arsed to go to something like zkill and pull data.

I have no sympathy for them. They are a classic example of what is known as rent seeking in economics. Arguing for special snowflake consideration. My view is literally: screw them and the horse they rode in on. The game has been buffed, and buffed, and buffed in their favor. Changes to drone poo, changes to loot reprocessing, changes to mineral requirements, the venture, and yet here they are whining like a bunch of petulant 3 year olds.

Edit:
In terms of ganking, we have the following:

An increase in CONCORD response times.
Removal of insurance for when CONCORD in on a KM.
Freighters have been given low slots to offer fitting choices.

And yet...here they are whining about players who are, literally, stupid. Putting cargo expanders on a freighter and then filling it with cargo worth billions and billions of ISK. Not even using a scout to see if there are Bad Guys™ on the other side of a gate.

We have a pile of data showing how infrequent ganks can be if you are simply prudent.

But here we have people, literally, arguing for imprudence. Go ahead, be stupid and CCP will make it okay.

Here is my agenda: Don't be stupid.

That's it. Will it assure you you'll never lose a ship? No. But it will significantly reduce the likelihood.

Stop being stuck on stupid.

Now, tell me why wanting people not to be stuck on stupid is bad.....

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#868 - 2016-08-03 08:42:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
BTW, the disagreement on the analysis is just bullshit. Tell me, in terms of statistics, why the analysis is wrong. There is this thing called sampling theory that will tell you why your sample is "bad".

Instead we get these snide comments completely devoid of any actual rigor.

I have explained why when we have 5.2 million customers we go with a sample of 50,000. So that if somebody comes back and says, "So what about people in this region?" We will be pretty sure we will actually have customers in that region as opposed to saying, "Oh...well our sample has nobody in that region." We could use a stratified sampling process as well, but sometimes it is just easier to go with a really big sample and just be done with it.

Seriously, I have yet to see a serious objection based on anything other than a snide comment by somebody whose knowledge of statistics I don't find very impressive.

In fact, I'll go even further. People often dismiss empirical evidence contrary to their prior beliefs. What? That does not support my view...well the data must be wrong. The analysis is faulty. I simply cannot change my views on this no matter what.

As for myself, if you really want to know, I am a Bayesian. I have my prior beliefs, but I also am willing to let the data change my beliefs. In this case, what data and analysis we have does not indicate a change in my beliefs.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#869 - 2016-08-03 09:15:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Caleb Seremshur
Regarding the idea of gaining new long-term players CCP has a bit of a problem. On the one hand their promo works and invite incentives are pretty good at drumming up interest, on the other hand because centrally all events in the game are conspired by players as groups or individuals and CCP can't mess with that without breaking something new players are at the mercy of the existing playerbase - from the perspective that they either find an engaging group to join or find an engaging enough activity that provides rewards acute enough to make the activity worth doing, or their trial expires often with people having quit before the expiry.

Some of us here have been around for a very long time, has CCP exhausted its options? Dev led training schools didn't last. Jesus features didn't work. "I was there" and "This is EVE" didn't really work either. It boils down to some very small parts regarding wish fulfillment and capacity for growth. I'm not going to offer any ideas here. I think first we need to look at the problem and why it's a problem and then think of solutions.

Core issue: players don't convert from trials to 2+ year subs often enough.
Evidence: some 8 million trial accounts renamed/delisted during the mass purge event.
Causes of these failures to convert: ??
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#870 - 2016-08-03 09:17:32 UTC
Dracvlad wrote:

I repeat so even you lot can get it, I am focused on real hisec based players, people who spend nearly all their time in hisec, that is the sample I am interested in.


So red freight and the new players CCP looked into.

voetius
Grundrisse
#871 - 2016-08-03 09:22:03 UTC

@Teckos. There is one fatal flaw with the example statistic that people use about ganked players and player retention and that is that it can also be explained by "survivorship bias".

From Wikipedia:

Survivorship bias, or survival bias, is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways.

This is not to say that CCP are incorrect, it would need more data to determine the answer either way. So your point may be valid or it may not, but the argument based on ganking and retention needs a it more work to be conclusive.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#872 - 2016-08-03 09:30:03 UTC  |  Edited by: baltec1
Caleb Seremshur wrote:

Causes of these failures to convert: ??


I would say a reduction in player interaction in highsec has had an impact. If we look back what what was different back when the game was growing compared to now one standout thing is the level of safety has gone up but at the cost of reducing the amount of pvp. This game is built upon player interaction so it can't be a coincidence that the numbers staying has gone down as pvp options have been reduced.

For example mining. Today the risk to miners is next to zero, only CODE attack them and not in any meaningful way, its just random terrorist attacks. In the past you had a reason to attack them and the attacks were targeted which meant there was some skill involved with fitting and flying a barge. We had things like hulkageddon and the ice interdictions, Dracvlad will scream about their targeting of miners but these events created a lot of content in highsec for everyone including the miners.

The constant nerfs to highsec PvP has resulted in a lot of content being removed from highsec. Its not the only thing but it has to be significant. Basically, the bears screamed nerf, CCP listened and the bears then found the game boring because nothing exciting or challanging happens anymore.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#873 - 2016-08-03 09:33:28 UTC
voetius wrote:

@Teckos. There is one fatal flaw with the example statistic that people use about ganked players and player retention and that is that it can also be explained by "survivorship bias".

From Wikipedia:

Survivorship bias, or survival bias, is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways.

This is not to say that CCP are incorrect, it would need more data to determine the answer either way. So your point may be valid or it may not, but the argument based on ganking and retention needs a it more work to be conclusive.


How much more?

We looked at the largest freight organisation in eve, CCP looked at a huge number of new accounts and zkill all say the exact same thing. Ganking is very very rare. Where exactly is the evidence to say ganking is a problem?
Geronimo McVain
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#874 - 2016-08-03 09:43:05 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:

None of this necessitates at change of mechanics and requires only letting new players know about things like the Eve Uni Wiki and other sources of information.

So you are proposing to just keep going because the player base is growing at an incredible rate? Roll
Because it worked yesterday doesn't mean that it will work tomorrow. When the player base is going down you have to change something. What do you propose to change?
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#875 - 2016-08-03 09:50:56 UTC
Geronimo McVain wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:

None of this necessitates at change of mechanics and requires only letting new players know about things like the Eve Uni Wiki and other sources of information.

So you are proposing to just keep going because the player base is growing at an incredible rate? Roll
Because it worked yesterday doesn't mean that it will work tomorrow. When the player base is going down you have to change something. What do you propose to change?


Undo the changes that have removed content from highsec?
Geronimo McVain
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#876 - 2016-08-03 10:11:36 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Undo the changes that have removed content from highsec?

Maybe the vets start to search for PvP content in low or Null?
Lucy Lollipops
State War Academy
Caldari State
#877 - 2016-08-03 10:30:16 UTC
Geronimo McVain wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Undo the changes that have removed content from highsec?

Maybe the vets start to search for PvP content in low or Null?


Nah, they want free easier ganking just to gain more money, to play for free forever is not enough...
Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#878 - 2016-08-03 10:52:56 UTC
Teckos you have no idea at all. Linking to things and pretending to know what you are talking about means nothing to me.

It is highly likely CCP do not have the data, for example they certainly do not have the data for why people leave the game. My bet is that CCP do not keep the data to enable this analysis and if they do they have only started doing it because from any measurement of competency the period when all mining ships had the tank of a wet paper bag, and the destroyers had a massive DPS buff, they only acted years later. To me that is simply a company that had no idea on their clients and were simplistically looking at logins and over all subs and not drilling down to understand their loss of customers.

To analyse your clients properly takes a lot of planning and clear focused foresight. It will not come from people who just say HTFU...


When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Lucy Lollipops
State War Academy
Caldari State
#879 - 2016-08-03 11:03:00 UTC
For me personally I have most of my chars under wardec....

I'm lucky I live in other places than hisec, but I see a drastical reduction of online corpmates everytime there is a wardec and they are absolutely too frequent even if I belong to little corps...


wardecs + ganking = CCP loses players in my opinion, buth they seem to care zero so....
Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#880 - 2016-08-03 11:28:16 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Caleb Seremshur wrote:

Causes of these failures to convert: ??


I would say a reduction in player interaction in highsec has had an impact. If we look back what what was different back when the game was growing compared to now one standout thing is the level of safety has gone up but at the cost of reducing the amount of pvp. This game is built upon player interaction so it can't be a coincidence that the numbers staying has gone down as pvp options have been reduced.

For example mining. Today the risk to miners is next to zero, only CODE attack them and not in any meaningful way, its just random terrorist attacks. In the past you had a reason to attack them and the attacks were targeted which meant there was some skill involved with fitting and flying a barge. We had things like hulkageddon and the ice interdictions, Dracvlad will scream about their targeting of miners but these events created a lot of content in highsec for everyone including the miners.

The constant nerfs to highsec PvP has resulted in a lot of content being removed from highsec. Its not the only thing but it has to be significant. Basically, the bears screamed nerf, CCP listened and the bears then found the game boring because nothing exciting or challanging happens anymore.


I really don't identify with these nerfs - I actually no longer remember what changes were introduced. The removal of insurance from gank ships?