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Science & Industry

 
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Looking into Industrial but it isn't adding up

Author
Whitelightrr
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#1 - 2016-06-11 23:23:02 UTC
So Ive began looking at what I can use some of my currently unused alts for other than PI mules. One area I've never really gotten into is Industrial/production.

I sat down and did the first thing I could think of - spreadsheeting. Factoring in my trained skills, BPO/BPC ME and such (not counting standings on sells and buys though). Came up with a pretty decent sheet that takes my cost to build and compares it vs the current sell min in the 5 trade hubs.

My problem is I wanted to compare what I have to Isk per hour, and there is what I am not understanding. I can show a profit on an item but IPH shows a loss. Has anyone seen that before? Is there something I missed on my end (likely) or a setting I could have wrong in IPH (also likely)?

I've always enjoyed this aspect in other MMOs, and while I dont have hopes of billions per week I do want to turn a profit lol. Any help or advice would be greatly appreciated!

*One thing I am having trouble accounting for is the industry index, is it worth trying to move around often to take advantage of that or will a few % really impact a small production that much?
Jasmine Cheryu
Bearers of Impurism
#2 - 2016-06-12 03:11:20 UTC
It is very common to make a loss, even when building from perfect blueprints.
If you want to make a profit, you need to add all the material costs together and the cost of the job to run (this also includes the cost of the blueprint copy, assuming you bought them from contracts). Lets make this number = x

Next you want to look at the sell orders of the item you wish to build and ultimately sell. lets make this number = y

if x > y
then this job is not worth running, due to the fact the materials cost more than the item/ship you are attempting to build, and therefore it will be a loss.

This does NOT necessarily mean that this item/ship will ALWAYS be unprofitable to build, it's just at this present moment it is.


If you have all level 5 skills and the necessary industrial implants, you can save costs on materials by building more than one of the item/ship you are trying to build. This is due to rounding. see more here: http://wiki.eveuniversity.org/Manufacturing#Beware_of_rounding_.22errors.22.21


Try building Small Overclocking rigs... they are generally very profitable (although perhaps this has changed since the citadel release recently)
Alternatively, if you get your hands on some nicely researched BPO's of mining barges, they are always in high demand and cheap to build

This page may help you also:
http://wiki.eveuniversity.org/Manufacturing_for_Profit
Do Little
Bluenose Trading
#3 - 2016-06-12 06:06:27 UTC
Markets are cyclical. There will be times when competition pushes prices below cost but this will attract more buyers, clearing the under valued stock and the price will bounce back up. The key to profitability is discipline - set a floor price you are comfortable with, make sure that floor price is in the normal range for the product and don't chase the market below that price - wait for the market to come to you.

Build things that use the PI you harvest. T2 products and structures all incorporate PI in the bill of material, Vertical integration can significantly improve margins with the current trading fees.

If you have idle research slots, research high value blueprints and sell copies, or fully researched BPOs, on contract. This has a long lead time - some prints will take years to research but I am quite happy with the investment I made in capital component prints and am currently working on structure components.
Whitelightrr
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#4 - 2016-06-12 15:56:39 UTC
Thanks Do Little and Jasmine!

I'm still researching into what I want to focus on first. I think I figured out the issue with my comparison problem. For some reason IPH was using a different sell value than I was, now I just to need to understand why.

I do feel somewhat better knowing I'm not making some common mistakes and losing money right off buy building anything vs what trying to find some profits. Good thing is since this isn't my sole focus in the game I can afford to take it slower.
Jasmine Cheryu
Bearers of Impurism
#5 - 2016-06-12 16:17:10 UTC
Also note that building out of a POS atm is cheaper and more economical than building from a station.

You will make more money here because there are reductions in build time + material costs for jobs when building in a POS (Iook at the modules' you put on the POS, descriptions and it will tell you stuff like 2% reduction in material costs etc...)


Mining barges are always good to build.. as they are in constant supply.
as are T2 mining crystals and strip miners (T1 AND T2)
Zoltan Lazar
#6 - 2016-06-12 20:34:35 UTC
Many items are a loss to produce due to "free minerals" idiots. These are players who think that anything they mine themselves they got for free, and fail to realize that a trit costs the same whether you mined it yourself or bought it off market.
Jasmine Cheryu
Bearers of Impurism
#7 - 2016-06-13 01:17:34 UTC
Zoltan Lazar wrote:
Many items are a loss to produce due to "free minerals" idiots. These are players who think that anything they mine themselves they got for free, and fail to realize that a trit costs the same whether you mined it yourself or bought it off market.


Good theory
More probably due to station traders manipulating the market Smile
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2016-06-13 01:32:36 UTC
or recent changes in ressource prices.


Zad Murrard
Frozen Dawn Inc
Frozen Dawn Alliance
#9 - 2016-06-13 06:22:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Zad Murrard
In general if you put 5 different people to calculate profit / item, you are likely to have 5 different results.

Eg. one might state that the production price for an item is based on Jita sell price. Sounds simple, right?

In reality there can be several complications:

1) if you operate near Dodixie, it would not be practical to have Jita prices there.

2) you will rarely/never have perfectly up to date price information, how do you take this into account?

3) your item requires 1000 pieces of material A. If you look at min price in Jita, but there is only 1 item sold with that price, it gives very wrong results to you. Should you use average price? Should you calculate average prices of items with lowest sell prices until they add to 1000 items? Should you leave some error of margin just because you have no idea how old your data is.

4) you should most likely use system cost index of your manufacturing location. What if you have 2 locations next to each other and you use both? How old is your cost index data, is it reliable at the point that you want to manufacture something? How should you take this into account?

5) what if you operate between 2 trade hubs. It is possible that 1 of the hubs which is not Jita has items which are regularly sold cheaper than in Jita. If this is the case, is this just extra 'lucky' profit which you should subtract from your win calculations?

6) What do you use as sell price? Long term average? Min sell price? Last week's average? Forecasted price of tomorrow? Again if you are selling 1000 items it might not make sense to use min sell price if there is only 5 items sold with that price.

7) Are you looking to sell it aggressively with low price? Are you willing to wait for a few days to sell it with slightly higher price? The choice is yours but it may heavily influence the answer to the equation.

=> All in all, if some methods show profit, some loss, there is not large enough room for variation
=> Try manufacturing some other product which shows you to make profit no matter which calculation system you use.
Syrias Bizniz
some random local shitlords
#10 - 2016-06-14 17:32:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Syrias Bizniz
Whitelightrr wrote:
Thanks Do Little and Jasmine!

I'm still researching into what I want to focus on first. I think I figured out the issue with my comparison problem. For some reason IPH was using a different sell value than I was, now I just to need to understand why.

I do feel somewhat better knowing I'm not making some common mistakes and losing money right off buy building anything vs what trying to find some profits. Good thing is since this isn't my sole focus in the game I can afford to take it slower.



T1 Ammo usually has a good profit margin of 10-20%, however it's market volume in ISK/day is relatively low. If you want to start out slow, check out those, look up the ammo types with the highest trade volumes, and make a share.
Ships themselves, at least subcaps, are usually so oversaturated that the margin is somewhere between -10% and 1-2%, unless you are willing to move them across the cluster and live with very slow sales.
Tipa Riot
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2016-06-14 21:11:50 UTC
My rule of thumb is, if the buy price rises above manufacturing costs and the sell price promises a good profit >50% it is a good time to start building ...

I'm my own NPC alt.

DeODokktor
Dark Templars
The Fonz Presidium
#12 - 2016-06-17 17:15:49 UTC
Zad Murrard wrote:
In general if you put 5 different people to calculate profit / item, you are likely to have 5 different results.

Eg. one might state that the production price for an item is based on Jita sell price. Sounds simple, right?

In reality there can be several complications:

1) if you operate near Dodixie, it would not be practical to have Jita prices there.


This idea is wrong. You should work on what the lowest sell price is, ideally something near a bulk value. One single unit doesn't matter, but 10% of the daily volume does.
If "Jita" price is below your build cost, then moving to Dodixie will not earn you more money, it will just hide the fact that you spent time and effort building and moving a product when it would have been much easier to just buy it in Jita and move it to Dodixie.
If your based in Dodixie then sure it would have relevance as you don't need to move things around, but most builders move things.

Zad Murrard wrote:

2) you will rarely/never have perfectly up to date price information, how do you take this into account?

3) your item requires 1000 pieces of material A. If you look at min price in Jita, but there is only 1 item sold with that price, it gives very wrong results to you. Should you use average price? Should you calculate average prices of items with lowest sell prices until they add to 1000 items? Should you leave some error of margin just because you have no idea how old your data is.

4) you should most likely use system cost index of your manufacturing location. What if you have 2 locations next to each other and you use both? How old is your cost index data, is it reliable at the point that you want to manufacture something? How should you take this into account?

5) what if you operate between 2 trade hubs. It is possible that 1 of the hubs which is not Jita has items which are regularly sold cheaper than in Jita. If this is the case, is this just extra 'lucky' profit which you should subtract from your win calculations?

6) What do you use as sell price? Long term average? Min sell price? Last week's average? Forecasted price of tomorrow? Again if you are selling 1000 items it might not make sense to use min sell price if there is only 5 items sold with that price.

7) Are you looking to sell it aggressively with low price? Are you willing to wait for a few days to sell it with slightly higher price? The choice is yours but it may heavily influence the answer to the equation.

=> All in all, if some methods show profit, some loss, there is not large enough room for variation
=> Try manufacturing some other product which shows you to make profit no matter which calculation system you use.


For most of the other things above, you should ideally use something like the 5 day, or 20 day rolling average of the item. As the average is in the middle of buy and sell then anything positive should be okay to build, anything that is negative could be a loss maker (but not guaranteed). I have about 1.5 billion units of trit, some purchased back when the price was around 2.5 a unit. When I build something I will use the current price of trit in calculating if what I am doing is worth it. There are a lot of players who would use the 2.5 - thus selling final product below build cost. if trit was valued around 1.5 a unit then I would use that price. Sure my wallet would take a hit, but I am not looking for the profit value of my trit, I am looking for the profit value of my product. Me having tons of product saved up is something I take a risk in doing.

If your really eager then track your purchases and work on a FILO system and keep your exact running average. For most people that would be too much work.
Sara Starbuck
Adamantine Creations
#13 - 2016-06-18 01:40:23 UTC
When i was building stuff couple years ago i used EVEIPH to look for good items, and EVEMentat to track the ISK.
Basically i was just looking my sales of items vs my purchased materials and was happy when the green bars were higher than red ones. I purchased everything, didnt gather anything myself.

Sadly Mentat has been abandoned and i havent found as nice program to replace it, did try couple ones like Everus but didnt like any of them as much. I knew i was making profit since i knew how much the stuff cost to make but looking profit graphs and bars is just so satisfying.
Knitram Relik
State War Academy
Caldari State
#14 - 2016-06-20 11:44:18 UTC
I use eve-cost.eu to track my manufacturing concerns. T1 armor rigs has always been a good market to profit in. If you're ISK strapped, buy BPC's off of contracts. You can find ships for under 250,000 ISK per run there. Other stuff cheaper.

"The problem with quotes on the internet is that it's really hard to verify their authenticity." - Abraham Lincoln

KaarBaak
Squirrel Team
#15 - 2016-06-20 22:51:05 UTC
Syrias Bizniz wrote:
Whitelightrr wrote:
Thanks Do Little and Jasmine!

I'm still researching into what I want to focus on first. I think I figured out the issue with my comparison problem. For some reason IPH was using a different sell value than I was, now I just to need to understand why.

I do feel somewhat better knowing I'm not making some common mistakes and losing money right off buy building anything vs what trying to find some profits. Good thing is since this isn't my sole focus in the game I can afford to take it slower.



T1 Ammo usually has a good profit margin of 10-20%, however it's market volume in ISK/day is relatively low. If you want to start out slow, check out those, look up the ammo types with the highest trade volumes, and make a share.
Ships themselves, at least subcaps, are usually so oversaturated that the margin is somewhere between -10% and 1-2%, unless you are willing to move them across the cluster and live with very slow sales.

The good thing about ammo is that you can 'flex' with the prices/costs. If one type of ammo starts to lose value, shut that down and switch to another, more profitable type.

Keep an eye on SVR...another variable I recently learned about that I'm learning to use to my advantage.

I labeled batches with their cost and sell them accordingly. Gets a little cumbersome, but that was just part of the game. T2 ammo in the right location at the right time can be pretty profitable. Did that for a while and threw in a couple of specific T2 rigs as well that I found a niche location for.

KB

Dum Spiro Spero

Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#16 - 2016-06-25 03:56:10 UTC
A spreadsheet should aid decision making, not predict profit.