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Technetium - what went wrong
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TraderAlt 4153172618
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2012-01-13 18:41:04 UTC  |  Edited by: TraderAlt 4153172618
Basically I'm wondering why tech never achieved and maintained the levels expected in this post.

Specifically, there were two trains of thought that seem to have been wrong, one that Technetium, as the bottleneck in t2 production would result in constant increasing prices. As we can see now, Technetium has bee flat at about 100K since the Northern Coalition disintegrated.

The second related assumption was that the Northern Coalition was not manipulating the price of Technetium as a cartel. This is a bit more confusing. Despite denials from within the alliance and reasonable arguments on why this wouldn't be practical, after the dissolution of the Northern Coalition we see the price of tech drop and level out at a time we would expect supplies to at least temporarily decrease, seeming to indicate that a manipulation was occurring.

Lastly with the recent CFC invasions we saw a very short lived manipulation attempt on Technetium before it once again dropped to it's previous 100K level seeming to indicate that wars have no real effect on the flow of Technetium to the markets.

So if all of this is true, was the initial spike in Technetium after dominion really only a speculation bubble? Was the Northern Coalition maintain a high tech level for profits, and if now, where were prices so high? Can we predictably expect tech to stay at 100K going forward?
Levija Saplina
Ken Interplanetary Communication
#2 - 2012-01-13 18:58:53 UTC
Would like pledge tin foil hats.
Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#3 - 2012-01-13 18:58:55 UTC
There was a drop after the NC died because the Russians are terrible at selling moongoo. Now that they realized how not to scare the **** out of every tech trader when they dump their tech on the market, they're reveling in their new supercarriers.
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#4 - 2012-01-13 19:18:57 UTC
It might have something to do with the game almost dying, thereby severely lessening the effect of the bottleneck, but terrible conspiracy theories are much more fun than thinking for two seconds before making awful threads.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#5 - 2012-01-13 19:22:27 UTC
Tech peaked at 120k and then went where it should have been.

Of course there was a lot of "betting" and rumor mongering at the time. Because for one fundamental analyst who knows what he's talking about there are 50 who live on rumors and try influence each other.


Anyway I'll leave this little reminder for posterity Twisted.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
TraderAlt 4153172618
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#6 - 2012-01-13 19:38:27 UTC
Darth Tickles wrote:
It might have something to do with the game almost dying, thereby severely lessening the effect of the bottleneck, but terrible conspiracy theories are much more fun than thinking for two seconds before making awful threads.


"Game almost dying" And you are calling my ideas terrible?

I'll put his in single syllable words so you can understand.

Not much Moon goo, price still low, how come?
TraderAlt 4153172618
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#7 - 2012-01-13 19:39:51 UTC
Loraine Gess wrote:
There was a drop after the NC died because the Russians are terrible at selling moongoo. Now that they realized how not to scare the **** out of every tech trader when they dump their tech on the market, they're reveling in their new supercarriers.


Except the prices have dropped and remained flat since the Russians took over. You explain the drop, but how come no rise?

It's supposed to be a bottleneck right? But it doesn't seem to act as one. I just can't figure out why.
TraderAlt 4153172618
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#8 - 2012-01-13 19:42:35 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Tech peaked at 120k and then went where it should have been.

Of course there was a lot of "betting" and rumor mongering at the time. Because for one fundamental analyst who knows what he's talking about there are 50 who live on rumors and try influence each other.

Anyway I'll leave this little reminder for posterity Twisted.


So your guess is that the post Dominion high were mostly a result of speculation and barring that Tech would have been at 100K? I can see that, lord knows speculation can do some fun things to prices, I am just trying to put together a reasonable explanation for the drop in price of this supposed bottleneck material.
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#9 - 2012-01-13 19:53:10 UTC
There's this supply and demand thing too. Obviously, supply of tech is fixed. But demand is not (one need only point to the market behavior of tech to show that demand is not as inelastic as some people supposed). It can go down as prices increase. And it's worth noting here that a lot of demand can go into things that aren't dependent on tech such as faction ships and modules.

It's also worth noting that tech is only a portion of the cost of a thing. If other parts of a T2 thing go up, then that can push down on tech prices. For example, some of the other moon goo minerals have been going up in price a bit (for example, the thulium pump and dump) and roid minerals have gone up substantially (they make up a large part of the cost of many T2 modules).
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#10 - 2012-01-13 20:20:03 UTC
TraderAlt 4153172618 wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Tech peaked at 120k and then went where it should have been.

Of course there was a lot of "betting" and rumor mongering at the time. Because for one fundamental analyst who knows what he's talking about there are 50 who live on rumors and try influence each other.

Anyway I'll leave this little reminder for posterity Twisted.


So your guess is that the post Dominion high were mostly a result of speculation and barring that Tech would have been at 100K? I can see that, lord knows speculation can do some fun things to prices, I am just trying to put together a reasonable explanation for the drop in price of this supposed bottleneck material.


Markets stay stationary for about 70-80 percent of the time, usually ranging around a local minimum and maximum. The whole process is explained at length here.

Once demand and supply balance changes, markets "readjust" to a new equilibrium. Price starts trending up or down till the new level, where another ranging phase will happen. Price often overshoots its target and takes time both to change and to stop.

Now, a bottleneck causes prices to go higher but sooner or later they will reach a new equilibrium, overshoot it (the 120k peak) and then stay in a range again.

Look at this link, click on the "Trends" tab, set it at max 360 days ago, view = month. It shows the process quite good.

It also shows how on December there has been an huge battle between buyers and seller (the long "wicks") and how in January buyers are pushing up but the long upper wick (called "shadow") represents many sellers still ready for battle.
Combat markets where forces are almost equal are usually a bad money maker in those months.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
TraderAlt 4153172618
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2012-01-13 20:27:58 UTC
Tasko Pal wrote:
There's this supply and demand thing too. Obviously, supply of tech is fixed. But demand is not (one need only point to the market behavior of tech to show that demand is not as inelastic as some people supposed). It can go down as prices increase. And it's worth noting here that a lot of demand can go into things that aren't dependent on tech such as faction ships and modules.


Wow, this makes a whole lot of sense. I think this explanation fits the bill perfectly, less flexible and other options.
Claire Voyant
#12 - 2012-01-13 21:25:37 UTC
Atima, did some great work on Sisi putting the data together to predict the tech bottleneck, but neglected to consider the effect of stockpiles built up over years of excess production. He simply assumed tech prices would hit the highs of the original tech2 bottlenecks.
Mantra Achura
Stammtisch
#13 - 2012-01-14 01:25:49 UTC
TraderAlt 4153172618 wrote:


So your guess is that the post Dominion high were mostly a result of speculation and barring that Tech would have been at 100K? I can see that, lord knows speculation can do some fun things to prices, I am just trying to put together a reasonable explanation for the drop in price of this supposed bottleneck material.


Its is also worth noting that several entities speculated for price increase in case of an invasion in the north but completely missed the fact that most tech is reacted in peace times and is dumped on the market in times of heavy sov warefare. Reaction lines are dropped in 0.0 systems preventing collateral damage. In addition direct selling brings an one-time influx into the war chest due to the fact that tech is sold along with the reaction products of the last processing cycle.

So my guess is that the buying process pumped up prices, but crashed by dumping as described above.

In general I would say, prices will stabilize and will potentially increase in peace times again as long as no official announcement regarding tech nerf will be met.
The upcoming fanfest will determine the path on how prices will trend in the near future...
Kagan Storm
Doomheim
#14 - 2012-01-14 12:58:27 UTC
There was a tread where somebodey calculated the exact amount of tech in the world/univers. On old forum... cant find it now...
Whink it was something like around 450 tech moons (not sure)

So that translates to lets say maximum..... 450 reactions per hour.... eaqualing out to 900 PT reactions.... and lets say you do the rest of the math yourself as i did you will come to a stunning conclusion... just take a look where PT is used and how much aof those things are used...........

On naother note. There is no single thing in eve EXCEPT: Scamming, Stealing and Officer hunting that is designed to bring you more then 1 bill.

1 bill is a magic number. iv seen it repeat in numerous places numerous time....... couple of examples of where that 1 bill appeares in eve:

10/10 complex
1 character 1 month invention+ manufacturing
Nyodium Moon
Disposium Moon
Alliance creation
Rating in 0.0 1 h a day 5 days a week

Also a lot of times when i started doing something the end calculation is always around 1 bill.
So i figure even with the bottlenech theory, manipulation, tinfoils, gaydars, and Communism beeing engineered by aliens.... tech should be bringing around 1 bill a month... meaning tech is overpriced at the moment by 600%.


You need extream stability so be able to enforce monopilism and cartelism. The more unstable the situation the more tech gets to an open market...

My ego is the the size of my carriers jump range.