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The New Meta of High Sec

Author
Tigh Edatosmi
Dromedaworks inc
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#1 - 2016-03-16 14:23:09 UTC
The watch list changes are here, and those of us who dwell in high sec have seen the repercussions first hand.

The changes have, as an effect, significantly increased the prevalence of war decs in high sec. This means one of two things:

1. All of the high sec war dec corps have decided to "test the waters" and see how things are now, all at the same time, or
2. The dearth of information about war dec corps means indy corps are in for much more war deccing in the future permanently.

We won't collectively know how the meta game of this will play out for about 3 weeks, after which the information will bear out whether we are in a new normal or whether war decs will return to their pre-patch frequency.

However, if 2. proves to be the new normal, then CCP overlooked something highly fundamental to their game (or something even bigger is going on, but I need to be careful not to violate the boards rules). If we suppose that the changes to the watch lists/buddy lists have permanently altered the risk profile of high sec war dec corporations, that means the price of war decs should have raised.

Right about here, the TL;DR crowd will hop off the train and ctrl-c, ctrl-v some anti care bear rhetoric. Please, feel free to leave such feedback, its good to have statistics on how many of you are out there.

For the rest of you that are interested in commentary, not crying, allow me to explain (frankly, I don't care about these changes pro or con, I was making the move into J-space anyway. I am more interested in looking at the big picture).

Lets suppose a highly over simplified model. War dec corp "alpha" sets a war dec to indy corp "bravo". For the sake of argument, alpha has about 20 members, and indy corp has about 50, with a regular load of about 5 at any given time. The cost for alpha is 100 isk. Prior to the patch, bravo could set up watch lists fairly easily, only 20 guys to track. Activities could be scaled depending on the load of alpha, establishing a risk profile associated with the odds a large gank fleet could show up ( and yes, all of this interacts with alternate scouting techniques and is not this simple, but I am working with a model here). Let's say that if this situation happened 100 times, alpha nets 20 isk, so their investment pays off.

Now, you change the meta. It is more difficult for bravo to asses risk, ergo, one of two things happens:
1. Alpha makes more isk from "easier" or "more frequent" kills. (think 'I have to go to market, I will just risk it, is 1030 am on a weekday US' and you blow up your interon V as a result where you wouldn't if a lot of war targets were clearly online.)
2. Bravo will reduce activity, reducing their income.

Either way, the risk profile has changed, again, without any change in investment by the war deccing corp.

I submit this is not feedback to the watch lists, but rather, a new discussion about the new meta. While I would not petition for changes (and I do have some ideas), it is worthy to discuss this in terms of the most fundamental concepts of eve. Eve is built on "risk versus reward" and "Don't fly what you can't afford to lose". The risk profiles have changed, and that implicitly affects the golden rule of eve. Or, all of this may be moot because things will "cool off" soon and be back to normal. I suppose only an analysis of kill boards will bear out how things have changed, and if the changes are here to stay.

TL;DR: War Declarations should change price because, and only because, the risk profile of a war declaration has changed.
Imperator Kane
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#2 - 2016-03-16 14:38:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Imperator Kane
Tigh Edatosmi wrote:


TL;DR: War Declarations should change price because, and only because, the risk profile of a war declaration has changed.



That is actually not the answer. But good on you to suggest the same thing every carebear in the game already has.

I would say go back to basic. Decrease wardec cost but only allow a corp to have a max of 3 wars at a time like it use to in the past.

This will resolve the need of mega merc alliances and bring back the small gang fighters that larger or same size indy/mining corps could actually fight against and protect themselves. Not to mention you will suddenly have people more eager to provide protection against these gangs to help said corps if they are not able. I will jump on that in a second and so would many others.

On the side of watch list. It actually compliments focused wardeccers and the changes I mentioned that only go after 1 or 2 targets at a time like I use to. If there is one thing I know it is wars and this will be a major improvement.

Cannibal Kane was my Test Character.

Yun Kuai
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2016-03-16 14:45:43 UTC
Tigh Edatosmi wrote:
The watch list changes are here, and those of us who dwell in high sec have seen the repercussions first hand.

The changes have, as an effect, significantly increased the prevalence of war decs in high sec. This means one of two things:

1. All of the high sec war dec corps have decided to "test the waters" and see how things are now, all at the same time, or
2. The dearth of information about war dec corps means indy corps are in for much more war deccing in the future permanently.

We won't collectively know how the meta game of this will play out for about 3 weeks, after which the information will bear out whether we are in a new normal or whether war decs will return to their pre-patch frequency.

However, if 2. proves to be the new normal, then CCP overlooked something highly fundamental to their game (or something even bigger is going on, but I need to be careful not to violate the boards rules). If we suppose that the changes to the watch lists/buddy lists have permanently altered the risk profile of high sec war dec corporations, that means the price of war decs should have raised.

Right about here, the TL;DR crowd will hop off the train and ctrl-c, ctrl-v some anti care bear rhetoric. Please, feel free to leave such feedback, its good to have statistics on how many of you are out there.

For the rest of you that are interested in commentary, not crying, allow me to explain (frankly, I don't care about these changes pro or con, I was making the move into J-space anyway. I am more interested in looking at the big picture).

Lets suppose a highly over simplified model. War dec corp "alpha" sets a war dec to indy corp "bravo". For the sake of argument, alpha has about 20 members, and indy corp has about 50, with a regular load of about 5 at any given time. The cost for alpha is 100 isk. Prior to the patch, bravo could set up watch lists fairly easily, only 20 guys to track. Activities could be scaled depending on the load of alpha, establishing a risk profile associated with the odds a large gank fleet could show up ( and yes, all of this interacts with alternate scouting techniques and is not this simple, but I am working with a model here). Let's say that if this situation happened 100 times, alpha nets 20 isk, so their investment pays off.

Now, you change the meta. It is more difficult for bravo to asses risk, ergo, one of two things happens:
1. Alpha makes more isk from "easier" or "more frequent" kills. (think 'I have to go to market, I will just risk it, is 1030 am on a weekday US' and you blow up your interon V as a result where you wouldn't if a lot of war targets were clearly online.)
2. Bravo will reduce activity, reducing their income.

Either way, the risk profile has changed, again, without any change in investment by the war deccing corp.

I submit this is not feedback to the watch lists, but rather, a new discussion about the new meta. While I would not petition for changes (and I do have some ideas), it is worthy to discuss this in terms of the most fundamental concepts of eve. Eve is built on "risk versus reward" and "Don't fly what you can't afford to lose". The risk profiles have changed, and that implicitly affects the golden rule of eve. Or, all of this may be moot because things will "cool off" soon and be back to normal. I suppose only an analysis of kill boards will bear out how things have changed, and if the changes are here to stay.

TL;DR: War Declarations should change price because, and only because, the risk profile of a war declaration has changed.



I don't fully understand your argument. Are you saying the cost should increase because the perceived amount of risk has changed? That sword is a double edged as the risk you say from not knowing when your aggressor(s) are online also means they don't know when you're online; i.e. the aggressor has to work that much harder to find you and get lucky enough to catch you with your pants down. I would argue based on that the cost should decrease as the risk has gone down significantly. They can't track your every movement without physically being on and watching you when you're on.

If anything, this new meta should have always been the norm. In the past, highsec wardecs just meant you logged on to find out you've been wardeced. Then someone in your corp checked on EvE-who and sent a mail with all wardecing corps members and told everyone to add them to watch list. Then you logged on the next day to find out that there were 10 guys or so from the wardeccing corp already logged on. This led you to make the judgment call there was too much risk to undock today since the boogey man could get you so you just logged off and/or stayed docked in station all day watching netflix.

Now, both parties have lost that part of intel through the loss of watch listing. This means that players should have less perceived risk and that wardecs should start to actually function as they were originally intended to do so; get people engaging in PvP while in highsec. This should hopefully have the benefit (big assumption here to make, but I'll make it) of getting the so-called merc corps out of the trade hubs; read station camping, and the pipes; read gate camping, and more actively out and about hunting their targets. Again, that assumes the wardeced corps are smart enough to use a neutral alt while shopping and hauling; i.e. they avoid the easily gankable areas and make the aggressors do work to get their kills. This should ultimately lead to people to get into impromptu fights where you don't have 15 neutral log and a nestor ready to undock (big assumptions I know, but hey a man can dream).

TL:DR The watch list changes should have a net positive effect on highest wardecs assuming the players grow a pair of peanuts

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Magmain
Perkone
Caldari State
#4 - 2016-03-16 14:53:05 UTC
Yes and also, meh?

This topic is going to be (and already has been) beaten to death. I agree with what you're saying, that the ability of non-pvp type corps to assess risk has been reduced. These corps are going to need to adapt and learn to assess risk in a different way, but they won't because, lazy. So trying to convince people that things are even more unfair and titled in favor of pvpers is pointless. Bears will whine because they are not as safe as they thought, pvpers will be happy/annoyed because now, just logging in wont necessarily mean all their targets dock up, but they also won't know for sure which of those lazy bears are on. Hub campers wont care, because people will still be idiots.


But that being said, I don't think CCP really ever intended for the watch lists to function as amazing and free intel when them implemented them originally. I won't pretend to have some amazing idea on how to improve gathering intel or war decs. They are what they are. We just need to play with the toys we have and find a way to have fun with them.

Shameless Plug: Oils By Eryn

Sentient Blade
Crisis Atmosphere
Coalition of the Unfortunate
#5 - 2016-03-16 15:00:03 UTC
Meh, pretty much everything about the wardec system is broken, not just the prevalence of them... there needs to be some system of requiring a set objective.... as not having them sign on for a week is not a positive gameplay experience.
Lady Ayeipsia
BlueWaffe
#6 - 2016-03-16 15:11:23 UTC
The problem with the old model of costs was it encouraged the creation of useless shell alliances. If I wanted a war Dec shield for my 1 man Indy corp, I create an alliance for it and the alliance cost is all that is needed to make incoming war decs cost 1 him (or 500mil, I forget). It wasn't a good system. Plus if you make wars cheap but limited to 3, you hinder mercs too much. Plus it becomes cheap to harass a group like Eve Uni.

Perhaps, there is already a mechanic that could be implemented based on an existing one. Perhaps war Dec cost should scale not only with opponsing numbers but also based on number of existing decs m

That said, man glad none of you lived through the whole war Dec space virus days. Those were a riot with almost every group decced.
Kieron VonDeux
#7 - 2016-03-16 16:00:19 UTC
Pushing the envelope sometimes results in the envelope being cut.

Tigh Edatosmi
Dromedaworks inc
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#8 - 2016-03-16 16:12:04 UTC
Yun Kuai wrote:


I don't fully understand your argument. Are you saying the cost should increase because the perceived amount of risk has changed? That sword is a double edged as the risk you say from not knowing when your aggressor(s) are online also means they don't know when you're online; i.e. the aggressor has to work that much harder to find you and get lucky enough to catch you with your pants down. I would argue based on that the cost should decrease as the risk has gone down significantly. They can't track your every movement without physically being on and watching you when you're on.



I concede this : Maybe your assessment is correct. At the meta level it is an easy thing to measure, pick 20 representative war dec corps and 20 representative indy corps and see how the numbers changed, isk destroyed versus isk created over war deq frequency. Arguing or discussing endlessly is fruitless, we need numbers, but I have a hunch that the entire meta has shifted in favor of war deccing corps.

I am not just rehashing the same care bear anti war deccing rants. I am trying to make the point that the costs have to shift to address the shift in risk. It has to have changed somehow, no system this complex can be immune to changes to the systems underlying rules. That there was no cost change, even downward, suggests that the effect is either being studied or being ignored, and that things are working as intended. I just hope that the Devs address it, or that kill board numbers crunchers verify it, that there is a risk shift and it should be source/sinked accordingly. Heck, if the war deccers are losing more money now then they were before, lower the costs. But seeing as how they are not the ones making an issue of it, and are supporting the changes by and large, my hunch is that the increased risk and reduced reward is being borne by the indys.
Pandora Carrollon
Provi Rapid Response
#9 - 2016-03-16 16:16:16 UTC
I think fixing War Decs is like trying to patch a hole in a sponge. No matter what you do, it will not work out like you want and will just have more holes to patch.

Honestly, War Decs probably need to be re-engineered into a couple of different game mechanics. I'm not sure how they will look or play out but I do know what they need to address:

Material Corporate Warfare - Corporations must be allowed to engage in actual combat in order to control areas of space without intervention from Policing forces...

Ship to Ship, PvP in any area of space - There should always be some risk to flying, either from NPC or PvP activity. It is a staple of the game. Elimination of the Poacher/Merc play style shouldn't be an option, too many people get their kicks and ISK from this.

Whatever the solution, it needs to address both the above and my take is that it's going to take something other than what we have on the table now.

By the way, this is just another War Dec thread so don't be surprised if it gets closed... Lol
Tigh Edatosmi
Dromedaworks inc
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#10 - 2016-03-16 16:17:46 UTC
Magmain wrote:


But that being said, I don't think CCP really ever intended for the watch lists to function as amazing and free intel when them implemented them originally. I won't pretend to have some amazing idea on how to improve gathering intel or war decs. They are what they are. We just need to play with the toys we have and find a way to have fun with them.


Thing is, I have never liked the idea of someone seeing I was online whom I did not provide permission to do so. The watch lists should have been like this from the get go.

But if you change the underlying system, then there will be consequences, and we have seen those consequences. Which means that another nerf bat or buff patch will come around. I will be interested to see what that is.

I really wish I could speculate on why this is *really* happening, but I am 90% certain that those posts just get locked and/or deleted, and I won't run afoul of the forum rules. But we all should be taking about 10 steps back and looking at the big big picture.
Tigh Edatosmi
Dromedaworks inc
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#11 - 2016-03-16 16:20:55 UTC
Pandora Carrollon wrote:


By the way, this is just another War Dec thread so don't be surprised if it gets closed... Lol


I am really trying to have a productive and useful conversation. This is NOT a "nerf war decs" conversation. Heck, when other indy corps get scared out of Jita, that reduces supply, increasing pricing, right?

I am just trying to illustrate how the threads are actually connected, in a useful way, to elicit useful conversation from the war deccers who will admit "yes it is easier" or "no, its harder", or "meh". There is about a 30% chance by mid april, this is a non issue.
Pandora Carrollon
Provi Rapid Response
#12 - 2016-03-16 16:27:07 UTC
Tigh Edatosmi wrote:
Pandora Carrollon wrote:


By the way, this is just another War Dec thread so don't be surprised if it gets closed... Lol


I am really trying to have a productive and useful conversation. This is NOT a "nerf war decs" conversation. Heck, when other indy corps get scared out of Jita, that reduces supply, increasing pricing, right?

I am just trying to illustrate how the threads are actually connected, in a useful way, to elicit useful conversation from the war deccers who will admit "yes it is easier" or "no, its harder", or "meh". There is about a 30% chance by mid april, this is a non issue.


Not debating that. Just letting you know that moderators can be odd birds and might not see it that way. They will look at the threads in their own way and kill off similar topics to keep the main boards clean, just giving you a bit of warning about that. They might just let it live if it stays varied enough off the other War Dec threads.
Vic Jefferson
Stimulus
Rote Kapelle
#13 - 2016-03-16 16:49:53 UTC
An arbitrary limit on the number of decs is just bad and lazy game design. An enterprising wardec entity should be able to dec the cluster if they are so bold.

The problem lies with having any actual consequences to that, as wardeccers have no skin in the game. Eve is supposedly balanced around higher risk ~ higher reward. High Sec allows near perfect intel and essentially zero risk for their gate and station hugging ways. Any or some of the following would make biting off so much require more careful calculation:

A)All members of aggressor entities in wars are always suspect flagged.

B)All members of aggressor entities cannot receive remote assistance from players who do not share a dec.

C)All members of aggressor entities cannot dock or use gates while pointed by a member of the defending entity.

D)A structure based solution such that the aggressor actually had to defend something during a time of the defender's choosing, where losing the structure means the war ends and cannot be reinstated for 1 month. What's that, you can't be bothered to defend a structure during another corp's prime? Maybe you shouldn't be wardeccing them!

E)Allow covert cynos in highsec.

F)Allow counter-bribes to CONCORD.

On one hand yes, it allows much needed danger in Hi Sec. On the other hand this danger, due to the lack of tools and the ease of hiding behind mechanics, isn't really shared equally by all sides, allowing the aggressor to avoid risk almost entirely. That is very un-eve like.



Vote Vic Jefferson for CSM X.....XI.....XII?

FloppieTheBanjoClown
Arcana Imperii Ltd.
#14 - 2016-03-16 16:58:04 UTC
As I said in the other thread just like this one, raising the price of wardecs won't have much impact on the alliances. It *will* have a chilling effect on small operators like me. If I can't afford my own wars, I'll jump into an alliance and let them fund my wars. And then I'll be able to muster a fleet when the situation calls for it. It's actually much worse for my chosen targets.

Founding member of the Belligerent Undesirables movement.

Gliese Casserres
Confused Bunnies Inc
#15 - 2016-03-16 17:02:28 UTC
As long as player base is completely polarized to hunters and prey, HS wardecs will be only enjoyable as the hunter. I believe that no change to game mechanics will fix this feature of human nature.
FloppieTheBanjoClown
Arcana Imperii Ltd.
#16 - 2016-03-16 17:04:14 UTC
Vic Jefferson wrote:
. Any or some of the following would make biting off so much require more careful calculation:

A)All members of aggressor entities in wars are always suspect flagged.

B)All members of aggressor entities cannot receive remote assistance from players who do not share a dec.

C)All members of aggressor entities cannot dock or use gates while pointed by a member of the defending entity.

D)A structure based solution such that the aggressor actually had to defend something during a time of the defender's choosing, where losing the structure means the war ends and cannot be reinstated for 1 month. What's that, you can't be bothered to defend a structure during another corp's prime? Maybe you shouldn't be wardeccing them!

E)Allow covert cynos in highsec.

F)Allow counter-bribes to CONCORD.


A) That's absurd. Let's suspect flag an industrial corp that's trying to take down a POCO owned by an inactive corp.

B) That's almost as abusrd as A. Remote assistance already yields a suspect flag, which means you can bring neutral friends along to take down their neutral logis. I've done that very thing before.

C) So it's a one-way thing? Yeah. That's totally fair and can't be abused at all. Especially with the current ally system.

D) What's that? A target corp has a larger prime time than I do? We're back to making this an alliance-only scenario.

E) I don't have a problem with this and would use it as often as possible.

F) You can counter-bride CONCORD now. It's called allies.

Founding member of the Belligerent Undesirables movement.

Magmain
Perkone
Caldari State
#17 - 2016-03-16 17:10:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Magmain
Vic Jefferson wrote:
An arbitrary limit on the number of decs is just bad and lazy game design. An enterprising wardec entity should be able to dec the cluster if they are so bold.

The problem lies with having any actual consequences to that, as wardeccers have no skin in the game. Eve is supposedly balanced around higher risk ~ higher reward. High Sec allows near perfect intel and essentially zero risk for their gate and station hugging ways. Any or some of the following would make biting off so much require more careful calculation:

A)All members of aggressor entities in wars are always suspect flagged.

B)All members of aggressor entities cannot receive remote assistance from players who do not share a dec.

C)All members of aggressor entities cannot dock or use gates while pointed by a member of the defending entity.

D)A structure based solution such that the aggressor actually had to defend something during a time of the defender's choosing, where losing the structure means the war ends and cannot be reinstated for 1 month. What's that, you can't be bothered to defend a structure during another corp's prime? Maybe you shouldn't be wardeccing them!

E)Allow covert cynos in highsec.

F)Allow counter-bribes to CONCORD.

On one hand yes, it allows much needed danger in Hi Sec. On the other hand this danger, due to the lack of tools and the ease of hiding behind mechanics, isn't really shared equally by all sides, allowing the aggressor to avoid risk almost entirely. That is very un-eve like.






A) This can't work, why would they be suspect? If they aren't at war with somebody, they shouldn't be able to be shot at without consequence.

B) Could work, but would have to be inclusive of both aggressor and defender. Otherwise its way to lopsided.

C) Nope. Station games suck, but that again flips the tables way to far for defenders.

D) This ideas been floated a lot lately, interesting, but as it stands its not fleshed out enough to do anything other than cause more problems while solving very few.

E) Sure why not.

F) Eh? Wars aren't really bribes....

*edit for poor typing skills.

Shameless Plug: Oils By Eryn

Do Little
Bluenose Trading
#18 - 2016-03-16 17:11:05 UTC
Any industrialist who has been playing this game for a while will have a hauler character in an NPC corp to move stuff in the event of a war or will contract people like Red Frog to haul stuff for them. If you want to mine or run missions, simply drop corp and spend the week in an NPC corp - most player corporations are OK with this, they want you to enjoy the game without giving away cheap kills.
Iain Cariaba
#19 - 2016-03-16 17:12:50 UTC
Tigh Edatosmi wrote:
the price of war decs should have raised

Once you peel back the rhetoric and meaningless examples, we can easily see the true purpose of your post stated above.

And you should also be aware that the price for a wardec corp to operate has, indeed, risen. It costs 5x more to keep 50 wars going than it does 10.
Lulu Lunette
Savage Moon Society
#20 - 2016-03-16 17:23:23 UTC
Highsec Roll

99% of the game uses out of corp alts.

If you're stubborn like me you buy stuff remotely (less than a day's training) and get a courier to work for peanuts.

@lunettelulu7

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