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That logic only works if:
1. You actually have to spend 1.25b more (you don't)
2. You've already depleted every target that would be viable (which would be further proof that ganking need balancing)
and
3. That the increase in EHP won't make more players take bigger risks in freighters (dumb people are gonna be dumb).

The point is, if you have to have more ships or better ships, which you admit, then you need to have higher value cargoes as well. Now maybe people will go, "Oh yay an EHP buff," and stuff even more valuable stuff in their freighters and everything will be "fine".

Or maybe they don't and ganking goes down.

So, here you are arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin and ignoring the underlying dynamic.

If the cost of ganking goes up by X ISK then ganking (for profit) will need to hit freighters with 2X additional in cargo. To be quite explicit:

Let Y be the minimum cargo value to justify a gank.
Let X be the increase in costs of ganking.

The new "minimal" cargo value is Y + 2X.

Since X > 0 it follows that Y + 2X > Y.

Now if we define A as the set of freighters that have cargo of value Y or greater, the set B of freighters with cargo value of Y + 2X is smaller and inside set A (A contains B).

Define m as a measure of sets A and B. m(B) < m(A).

That is, there are less freighters to gank. Thus, less ganking.

The only way to avoid this conclusion is that A and B grow by comparable amounts which is very restrictive hypothesis. It could happen, but it is quite unlikely.

There is no maybe about this. To turn a profit you have to target more expensive cargo of which there are fewer targets.

That is possible, but neither of us have the data to support our positions.

The conclusion that there will be less "gankable" freighters is inescapable though.

Agreed.

And including the buff to ships that never fit a DC is just dumb and designed to nerf freighter ganking.

I'm 50/50 on the passive change. On the one hand its handy on the other a mod as powerful as the DCU should really come with some kind of cap warfare weakness and should not benefit afk play.

'Basic' Damage Control is redundant - just remove it.

Any idea when these might be on Singularity?

There definitely is a change. Check the OP, they put up numbers and everything. What you mean to say is "there's not enough of a change to satisfy me", so again, why don't you make a suggestion rather than just saying "you're wrong CCP".

I guarantee you are wrong, since I know for a fact I won;t have it on some ships. I know you would then pull out EFT and say "you can get more defense with X" but since defense isn't the only relevant stat, that's meaningless. Some fits you can remove the DC, take less of a defense hit than you used to and add to other attributes.

In the case of marauders we have the problem of a lot of bonuses. 33% to structure, 30% bonus with bastion and the 40% - 47.50% from the DCU after this change. Same goes with the hecate (all t3d get this effect but because the hecate is gallente it gets a much bigger buff). Gal ships as a whole are getting a bigger buff out of this than the other factions. When looking at the more expensive huls which people will bling with faction mods all this change is going to do is make the DCU even more needed than today because it will be providing even more tank.

There are a few glass cannon setups out there that are getting a good buff that just don't need it. I mean, when was the last time anyone said the insta nado needed a buff? The fragile nature of the ship is what balances it. This whole change just causes so many issues and doesn't even fix the thing it is supposed to fix.