Upcoming Feature and Change Feedback Center

Not entirely true, since there's a pretty low limit on what people will pay to ship rather than simply producing nearer their sale location. If shipping costs went up too much people would even be able to produce in Jita cheaper then elsewhere then shipping. All that increasing the risk of shipping would do with current mechanics is consolidate people further into the hubs.

Most people here aren't claiming there is a problem, just that a minor increase in EHP is well within reason. Most of the difficulty (I use that very loosely) of ganking comes from catching and bumping the freighter, not from the EHP grind, so the effect of increased EHP on number of ganks should be minimal. Gankers would just rather pretend the sky is falling and claim this DC change is a crippling assault on gankers.

I don't know, your ship fitting choices are yours to make. All I'm saying is that I definitely will be removing the DC from at least a couple of ships, thus disproving your 100% theory.

Opsec

Seriously though, I'm not at home and if I were I have no interest in talking fits back and forth with you. But some ships which previously have just about qualified for a DC in my mind won't following the change. Whether EFT warriors can come up with better fits is pretty much irrelevant, the aim of the change is to give normal players a more varied choice, and reducing the effectiveness of the DC accomplishes that.

Red Frog's own annual reports are not good enough?

You sir are being deliberately obtuse and dogmatic.

This is a load of errant nonsense that any statistician would laugh at.

Yes, RFF really only went through Uedama 245 in 2014 and every single time they were ganked. [/sarcasm]

The point is, even if we limited ourselves to those instances when RFF went through Uedama and Niajara we would doing the following,

Gank rate = 245/a big number = a small....very small number. Maybe not 0.1% but probably less than 1%.

The only people getting creative are the ones who think just two systems should count for the entirety of highsec.

First off zkill does not show us a trend. Nor does it show us what the rate of ganking is. Nor do I think it can show us that because it does not log freighters traveling around and not dying.

For somebody who is complaining about the misuse of statistics these posts make you look completely incompetent and incoherent when it comes to statistics.

That is precisely what makes your posts so ironic and continue to highlight why you are a bumbling and incompetent when it comes to statistics. If you want to show that there is an upward trend in freighter ganking, then you have to look at the rate. Freighters ganked/number of freighters. We could look look at it on a per system basis as well, but again it is the rate we need. If the total number of freighters is increasing and the number of freighters ganked is also increasing one possibility is that there is no significant increase in the rate at which freighters get ganked. There is no trend.

Further, the fact that most freighter ganks (note you need to take out freighters killed for other reasons such a war dec or just doing something damn dumb) take place in 2 systems is not a trend. You are confusing trend with tendency or likelihood. Yet another reason you sound not just incompetent but incoherent.

What we want to know is,

P(G|X).

That is the probability of being ganked given the characteristics X (think of it as a tuple where each element contains things like do you have a scout, does your scout have webs, do you use perches, etc.). We don't and cannot observe this. But we can observe:

P(X|G).

That is what is the probability you had a certain characteristic type given you were ganked. Then we can, if we had the data, use Bayes Theorem to come up with P(G|X), that is,

P(G|X) = P(X|G)*[P(G)/P(X)].

We don't really have all this data.

What we do have is data from RFF. So people have been pointing to it and making the following claim:

RFF is prudent in its use of freighters. RFF does not die very much. They conclude that prudence reduces the risk of flying a freighter in regards to ganking. It is not at all an unreasonable conclusion to make.

Pointing to an incomplete data set and asking why nobody is using that is just stupid beyond belief.

You wound me sir...you are cutting deep into my Bayesian heart.

Of course it's an unreasonable conclusion to make. Again, that's because RFF are only able to have high survival rates by being less appealing than other targets, so the stats first off have absolutely no relation to the EHP of freighters and also are not representative of freighting in general, in fact they are quite the opposite.

Here. Imagine you have a bowl of apples and a bowl of pears for feeding the hungry, and you know full well that people like both an equal amount. Every person that arrives takes two pieces of fruit, one from each bowl. As people arrive, the two bowls deplete at the same rate. One day you start putting mould and dirt around the edge of the bowl containing pears. Now some people aren't put off and take their two different fruits as normal, however most of the people now take two apples instead of one of each. At this point, the fruits overall are still depleting at exactly the same rate, but if you were to look only at the pears and form an opinion over how much people like fruit from that single statistic, you'd get the impression they don't like fruit. If however the apples ran out, people would still take the pears as they are hungry and need to eat.

This is exactly the problem with the RFF stats. They are not only skewed because of the additional safety precautions that their pilots take, but because pilots who aren't in RFF which we don't have stats for are likely killed at a much higher rate, because when given the choice between the two, non-RFF pilots are generally more appealing. In order for RFF to achieve their level of safety, other haulers have to be destroyed in their place.

Again though, when discussing this change it's entirely irrelevant, since EHP is not what kept those pilots from being shot down. Reduced cargo and webbing alts were much bigger factors, and so the increase in EHP is not relevant. It's just another way for people who want to refuse to adapt to twist the subject to push their agenda. They'll just have to learn to be better EVE players and get over it. I'm sure they'll manage.