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Jita: Live Market Update - Skill Injector Prices Crashing

Author
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#121 - 2016-02-10 09:45:34 UTC
iBLACK MAMBA wrote:
Ria Nieyli wrote:


And in the same vein, yesterday was the first time people could buy SP piecemeal like this, so there was a huge demand boom. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.

You say that reduction in supply will hike the price, but in reality, there'll be a reduction in demand. Injector price can be directly tied to PLEX, however, so it will keep trailing behind it.


I see your point, however the demand is elastic while the supply is inelastic. This is what could lead to a price bubble. In other words, it's possible (and feasible) for demand to remain high, but it's impossible for supply to remain as high (certainly not in the short-term at least).

Is a price bubble possible because of this? Absolutely, it is. Will it happen? Not sure. I think prices will rise but won't get too out of hand. I'm predicting 800-900m for a few months before dropping back to 750m after 3 months or so.

Not likely. If prices remain above approx. 0.54 PLEX, then SP farming will increase rapidly to meet demand and push the price back down.

Keep in mind that SP farming is really simple, totally passive and risk-free. Every player in the game can do it, and setup as many farming accounts as necessary to meet demand.
Chasida
Instant Annihilation
#122 - 2016-02-10 09:59:27 UTC
Did some fast calculations here, and now I am not even sure its worth getting Injectors for lowbie alts, if you arent rolling in billions of ISK.

A good average skill point gain pr month is about 1,4 mill skill points. So 1 Injector will only result in you gaining about 10 days of training, and you have to pay about 650 mill ISK for it. Or if you calculate it in Plex; 1 Plex will only get you about 20 days of instant training.

As I said, I cannot see the worth if you arent rolling in billions of ISK... Or are these calculations wrong?..
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#123 - 2016-02-10 10:07:24 UTC
Sizeof Void wrote:

Not likely. If prices remain above approx. 0.54 PLEX, then SP farming will increase rapidly to meet demand and push the price back down.


Bear in mind we're talking about a temporary price bubble. Attention

Alts need 5.5m SP before you can farm them. Cool

So even if prices went completely crazy, this extra SP won't be available for 3 months.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#124 - 2016-02-10 10:08:09 UTC
Chasida wrote:
Did some fast calculations here, and now I am not even sure its worth getting Injectors for lowbie alts, if you arent rolling in billions of ISK.

A good average skill point gain pr month is about 1,4 mill skill points. So 1 Injector will only result in you gaining about 10 days of training, and you have to pay about 650 mill ISK for it. Or if you calculate it in Plex; 1 Plex will only get you about 20 days of instant training.

As I said, I cannot see the worth if you arent rolling in billions of ISK... Or are these calculations wrong?..


Your calculations are correct Attention

People pay the premium for instant results. If you're happy with the slow burn approach, good on you Big smile
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#125 - 2016-02-10 10:10:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Kalgeroth wrote:
Sizeof Void wrote:

Not likely. If prices remain above approx. 0.54 PLEX, then SP farming will increase rapidly to meet demand and push the price back down.


Bear in mind we're talking about a temporary price bubble. Attention

Alts need 5.5m SP before you can farm them. Cool

So even if prices went completely crazy, this extra SP won't be available for 3 months.


That's incorrect because people have been setting up farm alts before the patch hit. Easiest way to do it would be to buy up cheapish characters when it got announced, wait till the patch hits, strip them off completely and then start training immediately, meaning that the first farmed SP will be available in a tad more than a week after the patch.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#126 - 2016-02-10 10:14:37 UTC
Ria Nieyli wrote:


That's incorrect because people have been setting up farm alts before the patch hit. Easiest way to do it would be to buy up cheapish characters when it got announced, wait till the patch hits, strip them off completely and then start training immediately, meaning that the first farmed SP will be available in a tad more than a week after the patch.


That SP hit the market already. Where is the rest coming from? Cool

Or is there a masterplan orchestrated by character resellers to only sell a small fraction of SP a day until new SP farming alts get up and running?

The EVE illuminati ~controlling our SP markets~ for maximum price efficiency Cry
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#127 - 2016-02-10 10:17:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Kalgeroth wrote:
Ria Nieyli wrote:


That's incorrect because people have been setting up farm alts before the patch hit. Easiest way to do it would be to buy up cheapish characters when it got announced, wait till the patch hits, strip them off completely and then start training immediately, meaning that the first farmed SP will be available in a tad more than a week after the patch.


That SP hit the market already. Where is the rest coming from? Cool

Or is there a masterplan orchestrated by character resellers to only sell a small fraction of SP a day until new SP farming alts get up and running?

The EVE illuminati ~controlling our SP markets~ for maximum price efficiency Cry


Reading comprehension has failed you. The characters that got stripped of SP get to keep 5m of it, which means they are already training towards the first 5.5m SP extraction point. With +5 implants, it will take less than eight days for the first farmed SP to hit the market, not the three months you claim. And that's worst case scenario. Any character that was left with more than 5m but less than 5.5m will get to that point even faster.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#128 - 2016-02-10 10:34:05 UTC
Ria Nieyli wrote:


Reading comprehension has failed you. The characters that got stripped of SP get to keep 5m of it, which means they are already training towards the first 5.5m SP extraction point. With +5 implants, it will take less than eight days for the first farmed SP to hit the market, not the three months you claim. And that's worst case scenario. Any character that was left with more than 5m but less than 5.5m will get to that point even faster.


Attention The trickle of SP from a few alts is going to be a tiny fraction of the flood of SP from 13 years of unwanted skills
Attention It's going to be months before a new generation of alt farms produce more SP
Attention These are the pre-conditions of a price bubble
Attention The above are facts, anything else is speculation
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#129 - 2016-02-10 10:39:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Kalgeroth wrote:
Ria Nieyli wrote:


Reading comprehension has failed you. The characters that got stripped of SP get to keep 5m of it, which means they are already training towards the first 5.5m SP extraction point. With +5 implants, it will take less than eight days for the first farmed SP to hit the market, not the three months you claim. And that's worst case scenario. Any character that was left with more than 5m but less than 5.5m will get to that point even faster.


Attention The trickle of SP from a few alts is going to be a tiny fraction of the flood of SP from 13 years of unwanted skills
Attention It's going to be months before a new generation of alt farms produce more SP
Attention These are the pre-conditions of a price bubble
Attention The above are facts, anything else is speculation


A "few" alts. How do you know what the number of those "few" alts would be? Or do you really believe that people who have seriously looked into establishing character sp farms are only now starting to train them? It's going to be less than eight days for the first generation, not months. That's not a speculation, unlike you claiming that there'll be only a "few" alts.

You preconditions for a price bubble just assume that the demand will stay consistant with patch day. It will not be so, as we experienced a huge consumer boom because it's a brand new service. That will drop off. What are you going to do then?
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#130 - 2016-02-10 10:47:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Kalgeroth
Here are my price predictions:

Per Injector
Arrow Day 1-7: 650-700m
Arrow Day 8-14: 750-800m
Arrow Day 15-30: 850-950m
Arrow Day 30-60: 1bn-1.2bn

Then, a slow decline as SP alt farms start extracting in more volume. Final price: 800m.
Memphis Baas
#131 - 2016-02-10 11:24:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Memphis Baas
So it would make sense to use the current 600m costs to create an "instant" farm alt at 5.5 m SP, take advantage of the 1200 bubble, then trickle the SP at 800?

In any case, the people arguing against you are just saying that we've known this feature was coming since 3-4 months ago, which should be plenty of time to set up farm alts. Sure, not everyone will have had the foresight, but you can't assume that nobody is smarter and hasn't thought of it 3 months ago.

There's a big supply of SP's now, but there's a big demand now too; people who wanted to move points or create alts are doing it now. In a month, the overriding consideration will be just how expensive it is. You may see demand only when CCP introduces some new skills, like with the faux/carriers.
Tear Anasarsy
Reverse Engineering LTD
#132 - 2016-02-10 11:59:07 UTC
Quick maths just for fun and not checked the current prices but I can see Buying from the Bazaar and extracting skills and selling to be rather profitable..

I have no isk so cant play the market anyway just a sudden thought as I loaded forums up.

Tipa Riot
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#133 - 2016-02-10 12:54:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Tipa Riot
Memphis Baas wrote:
So it would make sense to use the current 600m costs to create an "instant" farm alt at 5.5 m SP, take advantage of the 1200 bubble, then trickle the SP at 800?

In any case, the people arguing against you are just saying that we've known this feature was coming since 3-4 months ago, which should be plenty of time to set up farm alts. Sure, not everyone will have had the foresight, but you can't assume that nobody is smarter and hasn't thought of it 3 months ago.

There's a big supply of SP's now, but there's a big demand now too; people who wanted to move points or create alts are doing it now. In a month, the overriding consideration will be just how expensive it is. You may see demand only when CCP introduces some new skills, like with the faux/carriers.

Agree, once everyone in the game today is satisfied with shuffling around SP and all have optimized chars, the demand will only come from new players and new alts. Whereas supply can be basically unlimited through farming alts, extracted bazaar chars, and "completed" mains.

I'm my own NPC alt.

Kaivar Lancer
Doomheim
#134 - 2016-02-10 13:53:49 UTC
SP will continue to generate over time, so the long-term supply of SP is infinite. On the otherhand, there is a finite demand for SP injectors. Once your SP is 50m+, or you've got the skills you've wanted, the utility of SP injectors falls dramatically.

The future value of SP can only plummet.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#135 - 2016-02-10 13:57:43 UTC
Tipa Riot wrote:

Agree, once everyone in the game today is satisfied with shuffling around SP and all have optimized chars, the demand will only come from new players and new alts. Whereas supply can be basically unlimited through farming alts, extracted bazaar chars, and "completed" mains.


If farming alts are profitable, this is almost certainly the case.Attention

Contrary to popular wisdom, at the moment they are not very profitable and it's highly doubtbful people will bother for such a small return. But when prices rise, they will be. Cool

In the meantime, it will still take 3 months for SP farming alts to come fully online in large numbers.




Aurelius Oshidashi
TEMPLAR.
The Initiative.
#136 - 2016-02-10 15:21:39 UTC
Someone wrote skill injections are probably not interesting for new players. I consider myself somewhat a new player, with my 8M skill points. I would love to have these injections, but I would have to sell plex to get the ISK I need for it and for a good distribution of points I would also have to buy new skill books. Selecting the right skills is still kind of hard, cause I discover new things about the game almost daily and don't feel confident that I would be able to distribute the points in a wise manner.

Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#137 - 2016-02-10 15:30:51 UTC
Kalgeroth wrote:
Tipa Riot wrote:

Agree, once everyone in the game today is satisfied with shuffling around SP and all have optimized chars, the demand will only come from new players and new alts. Whereas supply can be basically unlimited through farming alts, extracted bazaar chars, and "completed" mains.


If farming alts are profitable, this is almost certainly the case.Attention

Contrary to popular wisdom, at the moment they are not very profitable and it's highly doubtbful people will bother for such a small return. But when prices rise, they will be. Cool

In the meantime, it will still take 3 months for SP farming alts to come fully online in large numbers.


Wrong on both accounts.
Pandora Bokks
Pangalactic Frontline Supply Agency
#138 - 2016-02-10 15:53:04 UTC
Kalgeroth wrote:
Tipa Riot wrote:

Agree, once everyone in the game today is satisfied with shuffling around SP and all have optimized chars, the demand will only come from new players and new alts. Whereas supply can be basically unlimited through farming alts, extracted bazaar chars, and "completed" mains.


If farming alts are profitable, this is almost certainly the case.Attention

Contrary to popular wisdom, at the moment they are not very profitable and it's highly doubtbful people will bother for such a small return. But when prices rise, they will be. Cool

In the meantime, it will still take 3 months for SP farming alts to come fully online in large numbers.






I still do not understand your argument. If I mine a Bazaar character or alt, I can only go down to 5 mln residual SP. So next injector will be available in 185 hrs. Bazaar prices have not adjusted fully - you can still buy and mine them with a profit. The farms are producing in the meanwhile - I doubt they did hit the market already at large scale. I am sure supply is a non issue for a very very long time - demand is much more difficult to predict. I wish I could.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#139 - 2016-02-10 15:55:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Pandora Bokks wrote:
I still do not understand your argument. If I mine a Bazaar character or alt, I can only go down to 5 mln residual SP. So next injector will be available in 185 hrs. Bazaar prices have not adjusted fully - you can still buy and mine them with a profit. The farms are producing in the meanwhile - I doubt they did hit the market already at large scale. I am sure supply is a non issue for a very very long time - demand is much more difficult to predict. I wish I could.


Keep in mind that the injectors were announced on 15-10-2015, so anyone that would've wanted to set up a farm has had the chance to do so before patchday.

He sounds like someone who's holding injectors, hoping to cash out in 1-2 months.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#140 - 2016-02-10 16:04:24 UTC
Kalgeroth wrote:
Here are my price predictions:

Per Injector
Arrow Day 1-7: 650-700m
Arrow Day 8-14: 750-800m
Arrow Day 15-30: 850-950m
Arrow Day 30-60: 1bn-1.2bn

Then, a slow decline as SP alt farms start extracting in more volume. Final price: 800m.



Hmmm....

Tthe days 30-60 seem a bit high. Remember the price works to dampen demand some what as well, so not sure the price will get that high. I like your final price though.

Note, this would not, necessarily, be a bubble though.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

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