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Open question to Economics savvy: inflation vs EVE subscription price

Author
Indahmawar Fazmarai
#1 - 2016-02-06 11:09:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Indahmawar Fazmarai
OK, this time I had an idea that flies over my head: has inflation diminished CCP's effective income from EVE subscriptions?

All in all, 15 euros in 2003, could buy more stuff than now in 2016 -that's inflation for you. In my country, inflation has nearly doubled the price of things since 2003. So, what about CCP, Iceland and EVE subscription price?

The question is more complex than it seems. First, because CCP as an Icelandic company operates with ISK (Icelandic Krona), but most of their income comes from foreign currencies like Euro, US Dollar and Sterling Pound. Second, because Iceland's economy and the ISK suffered heavily during the global crisis, but the impact was very different for companies with income in foreign currencies. Third because this all flies over my head... I don't have the knowledge to gather and use the information.

Since CCP can't increase the subscription price, knowing whether they "should be OK" or "are losing money compared to 2003" with their 2003 prices for subscription could prove interesting.

Disclaimer for sake of honesty: My ulterior motive is to figure whether CCP is compensating lost subscriptions or lost purchasing power when they come up with "greed is good" ideas like skill trading.

Can anyone help?
Cristl
#2 - 2016-02-06 11:40:36 UTC
I'd say you have most of it covered.

Bear in mind that for the period from 2003 to about 2011 increased subscription numbers would have outpaced inflation, but some of the profit was burned on bad projects (vampires :forfuckssakeemoticon:) Since then their finances would have definitely suffered.

They could perhaps increase sub fees, especially if coupled with a discount system for multiple accounts. They really need advice on sensible microtransactions: I spent over 500 USD on planetside 2 and I couldn't for the life of me tell you how Straight

Very few people will bother with these injector things, for example, because it's too much money in one go for anything tangible (I'd suspect).
Lasse R Farnsworth
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#3 - 2016-02-06 12:27:19 UTC
Cristl wrote:
I'd say you have most of it covered.

Bear in mind that for the period from 2003 to about 2011 increased subscription numbers would have outpaced inflation, but some of the profit was burned on bad projects (vampires :forfuckssakeemoticon:) Since then their finances would have definitely suffered.

They could perhaps increase sub fees, especially if coupled with a discount system for multiple accounts. They really need advice on sensible microtransactions: I spent over 500 USD on planetside 2 and I couldn't for the life of me tell you how Straight

Very few people will bother with these injector things, for example, because it's too much money in one go for anything tangible (I'd suspect).



Well I actually find the Planetside 2 prices are a horrible pricing structure. They build such a grindfest. But yeah .. MICRO transitions ... I have so many games I bought on steam because "Hey 1€ .. cool WANT HAVE"
Avvy
Doomheim
#4 - 2016-02-06 13:53:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Avvy
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Infinity Ziona wrote:
... In the meantime EvE (cake) got stale. ..
So last year, they blew up some of the cake and put cardboard in another part for flavour.
Next week they sell the secret ingredient and offer to smear it over their bodies for you to lick off.


If I had the means, I would like to learn how has inflation impacted CCP's financials. 15 €/ $ buy you now less stuff than they could 12 years ago. My guess is that inflation's impact on CCP's income would be related to Iceland's inflation but then we must factor the evolution of ISK versus EUR, GBP and USD... and that really flies over my head. Ugh

Houm... guess I'll start a thread with this. Nothing could be lost.




Well factor in there are more players playing MMOs these days and more MMOs to choose from. There's also a lot of failed MMOs that survived by going F2P. So games to remain competitive have to have a lower subscription rate than they used to. Which is why you see more in-game shops and other services on offer.

Wouldn't mind betting that CCP make a tidy sum from the sale of PLEX and Aurum, although mainly PLEX.


So in relation to the game, what you are considering is kind of pointless.



Edit:

Quote taken from post #1606 from the Walking in Stations thread. Post #1607 moved here.
Cristl
#5 - 2016-02-06 14:02:39 UTC
Well, SOE had a crazy model where the base prices were insane, but you could get triple your money if you purchased at the right time, and half price or better on items on sale. This meant that base prices for a good weapon might be $7, but with patience really cost $1. One USD gets you a single can of pissy lager from a seven-eleven. A beer in a club could have bought you an arsenal provided you weren't impulsive.
Pandora Carrollon
Provi Rapid Response
#6 - 2016-02-08 20:05:11 UTC
Without some inside information, this is all going to be highly speculative, but I might give you an alternate way of looking at things:

Eve costs X amount to maintain, expand, operate, etc. That includes all costs for people, equipment, etc. CCP KNOWS what that cost is, we don't. Now, as a company they have a few choices:


  1. Do we bake all costs into, include a profit margin, and then divvy it up amongst the current player base as subscriptions?
  2. Do we take a loss to be more competitive against other games out there and make profit off of the wanna be / harder core player base with gimmick strategies (PLEX, Skill Injectors, Muliple Accounts due to training limits, Citadels, etc. etc. etc.)?
  3. Do we take this game and wring it for every ounce of profit we think it can make?


The odd thing is, the above list is not exhaustive nor is it exclusive. Aspects of ALL of those options can be in play or shift over time. It's what every company that is out there making money has to struggle with. There is no perfect formula.

However, with all that firmly in mind, what will kill Eve is lack of flexibility and stagnation. If they just keep pumping out more variants on the same theme, eventually, even a universe as diverse as Eve will fall into the dustbin of gaming history. You have to shake it up or try to, on a fairly regular basis.

Most MMO's start to look like each other, and this is a BAD thing. Eve is really different looking and that's good, but it's an MMO for thinking players. You have to have some ties into the infrastructure of the Universe even if you seek nothing but action. That infrastructure is complex and very dynamic but NOT dynamic enough to be attractive enough for the average MMO player. The playerbase is full of players that love the complexity of the dynamic. I've only been playing for about a month now, and I can see all that being true.

However, Eve will need a large expansion of universe shaking proportions soon. It will need to be something to drop into even the most experienced Eve players lap and make them go... "Whoa, I feel like I don't even know this game anymore, this is awesome!" That is what makes the excitement possible to catch on and spread... again, if that is CCP's goal.

Whatever their goal is, is what drives the economic decisions for price point and game development. They are intrinsically linked.
Neuntausend
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#7 - 2016-02-08 20:32:01 UTC
I was wondering about that as well. Something that cost 15 bucks in 2003 should not still cost 15 bucks in 2016, that's just not how our money system works.

Then again, they had like a 20k subscriptions back then, and now they have 25 times that. We can't really know how inflation influences CCPs profitability without knowing the numbers (turnover, expenses and so on)
Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#8 - 2016-02-08 20:34:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Mr Epeen
In general, subscription based MMOs are not viable. They are break even at best. That's why there are so few left.

If CCP hadn't pirated the RMT trade from the pirates that were previously selling ISK, I'm guessing we'd have been looking for a new space game years ago as EVE would have been another casualty of the "We started as a sub based game and we're going to stick with it, God dammit!" school of thought.

It's all about the PLEX, people,. That's the only thing keeping this game afloat.

Mr Epeen Cool
Neuntausend
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#9 - 2016-02-08 20:39:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Neuntausend
But why is that? Other services are subscription based. What's the difference between an MMOG and say a web storage provider? Or a streaming service? They don't have microtransactions and one-time fees.
Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#10 - 2016-02-08 20:43:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Mr Epeen
Neuntausend wrote:
But why is that? Other services are subscription based. What's the difference between an MMOG and say a web storage provider? Or a streaming service? They don't have microtransactions and one-time fees.


In a nutshell...advertising.

You can't stick pop-ups, pop-unders, clickbait and redirects in an MMO like you can with your examples. The sub is the total income, not the hook .

Mr Epeen Cool
Cixi
#11 - 2016-02-08 21:08:03 UTC
It's wrong to believe CCP can't increase subscription fees, they already have in the past https://i.imgur.com/p9KEpig.png
Neuntausend
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#12 - 2016-02-08 21:20:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Neuntausend
Cixi wrote:
It's wrong to believe CCP can't increase subscription fees, they already have in the past https://i.imgur.com/p9KEpig.png


When's that screenshot from? It doesn't appear to make a lot of sense to me, with 3 month sub being more expensive than 1 month. This looks like some kind of PR move to me.

Edit: Yeah, with "Cybernetic Avatar Items" and "Sansha Attire", this can't be from way back when.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#13 - 2016-02-08 22:06:03 UTC
Mr Epeen wrote:
In general, subscription based MMOs are not viable. They are break even at best. That's why there are so few left.

If CCP hadn't pirated the RMT trade from the pirates that were previously selling ISK, I'm guessing we'd have been looking for a new space game years ago as EVE would have been another casualty of the "We started as a sub based game and we're going to stick with it, God dammit!" school of thought.

It's all about the PLEX, people,. That's the only thing keeping this game afloat.

Mr Epeen Cool


Ccp allowed GTC sales right from the start. PLEX merely formalized the arrangement.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#14 - 2016-02-08 23:24:50 UTC
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
OK, this time I had an idea that flies over my head: has inflation diminished CCP's effective income from EVE subscriptions?

All in all, 15 euros in 2003, could buy more stuff than now in 2016 -that's inflation for you. In my country, inflation has nearly doubled the price of things since 2003. So, what about CCP, Iceland and EVE subscription price?

The question is more complex than it seems. First, because CCP as an Icelandic company operates with ISK (Icelandic Krona), but most of their income comes from foreign currencies like Euro, US Dollar and Sterling Pound. Second, because Iceland's economy and the ISK suffered heavily during the global crisis, but the impact was very different for companies with income in foreign currencies. Third because this all flies over my head... I don't have the knowledge to gather and use the information.

Since CCP can't increase the subscription price, knowing whether they "should be OK" or "are losing money compared to 2003" with their 2003 prices for subscription could prove interesting.

Disclaimer for sake of honesty: My ulterior motive is to figure whether CCP is compensating lost subscriptions or lost purchasing power when they come up with "greed is good" ideas like skill trading.

Can anyone help?


I don't get this strange fascination with CCP's financials, but anyways....

Revenues from 10 years ago would be.

Revenue(t-10) = Subscriptions(t-10)*Price

Adjusting for inflation would give us:

Subscriptions(t-10)*Price*(1 + i)^10

The current revenues are given by:

Subscriptions(t)*Price

Since price is the same in both instances we can drop it giving us, Subscriptions(t-10)*(1 + i)^10 and Subscriptions(t) respectively. So long as the following condition holds revenues will be growing faster than inflation:

Subscriptions(t)/Subscriptions(t-10) > (1 + i)^10.

Or for a year-over-year comparison,

[Subscriptions(t)/Subscriptions(t-1)] - 1 > i.

Where i is the rate of inflation.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#15 - 2016-02-08 23:56:08 UTC
Neuntausend wrote:
I was wondering about that as well. Something that cost 15 bucks in 2003 should not still cost 15 bucks in 2016, that's just not how our money system works.

Then again, they had like a 20k subscriptions back then, and now they have 25 times that. We can't really know how inflation influences CCPs profitability without knowing the numbers (turnover, expenses and so on)


Actually, if you look at computers you'll find that their price has not really gone up all that much over time and after factoring in quality improvements computers have actually gotten quite a bit cheaper.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Memphis Baas
#16 - 2016-02-09 00:44:09 UTC
IMO, the problem with increasing the subscription fee is the same as with increasing ANY price: if you increase 20%, you get 20% fewer subscribers, instantly. They have to add value in order to add costs; most games do it in the form of "collector edition" boxes, expansions, DLC's, or microtransactions, where you're clearly getting extra stuff for the extra money paid.

The easiest for EVE would be microtransactions, but CCP is royally screwing it up with pretty much the entire NEX store, where the choices are few and too expensive. They only put sporadic effort into the "get rich quick" items, instead of putting some continuous effort into having a large variety of cheap items (and some expensive), and into upkeeping the NEX store so it looks like it's updated frequently.

Compare the NEX store with the SWTOR Cartel Market: they periodically release new packs / new outfits, the store front is a constant advertiser for each week's "deals", and the selection is huge, and mostly fluff. There is some borderline pay-to-win, such as increased inventory space or reduced (wait) timers on travel options, but nothing major. And hey are making a ton of money from sales volume, rather than pricing super-expensive stuff.

They're focusing on improving what's under the hood (Aria), and that's ok, but once they have the engine they should release 1000 cars, each with 1000 paint schemes, 80% dirt cheap, 20% lamborghinis or w/e.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#17 - 2016-02-09 01:35:58 UTC
Memphis Baas wrote:
IMO, the problem with increasing the subscription fee is the same as with increasing ANY price: if you increase 20%, you get 20% fewer subscribers, instantly. They have to add value in order to add costs; most games do it in the form of "collector edition" boxes, expansions, DLC's, or microtransactions, where you're clearly getting extra stuff for the extra money paid.

The easiest for EVE would be microtransactions, but CCP is royally screwing it up with pretty much the entire NEX store, where the choices are few and too expensive. They only put sporadic effort into the "get rich quick" items, instead of putting some continuous effort into having a large variety of cheap items (and some expensive), and into upkeeping the NEX store so it looks like it's updated frequently.

Compare the NEX store with the SWTOR Cartel Market: they periodically release new packs / new outfits, the store front is a constant advertiser for each week's "deals", and the selection is huge, and mostly fluff. There is some borderline pay-to-win, such as increased inventory space or reduced (wait) timers on travel options, but nothing major. And hey are making a ton of money from sales volume, rather than pricing super-expensive stuff.

They're focusing on improving what's under the hood (Aria), and that's ok, but once they have the engine they should release 1000 cars, each with 1000 paint schemes, 80% dirt cheap, 20% lamborghinis or w/e.


Errr…no, at least not generally. Smile

Given a percentage increase in a price, the decrease in quantity (in this case subscribers) depends on the elasticity of demand. The price elasticity of demand is defined as,

The Percentage Change in Quantity/The percentage Change in Price.

The elasticity range from 0 to negative infinity (with the exception of Veblen and Giffen goods). If the elasticity is 0 then the demand curve is vertical—i.e. not change in the price will change quantity. Conversely if the elasticity is infinite, then the demand curve is horizontal. Typically, the elasticity ranges between these two extremes. For there to be a 20% decrease in the number of subscribers given a 20% increase in price would suggest the price unit elastic—i.e. equal to -1. And to make matters even more confusing, economists typically drop the negative when referring to elasticity.

Since Eve is probably a normal good, it is most likely the case that the elasticity is 1 or maybe even higher…meaning a price increase of a given percentage will lead to an even larger percentage reduction in subscribers.


"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Indahmawar Fazmarai
#18 - 2016-02-09 07:54:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Indahmawar Fazmarai
Teckos Pech wrote:
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
OK, this time I had an idea that flies over my head: has inflation diminished CCP's effective income from EVE subscriptions?

All in all, 15 euros in 2003, could buy more stuff than now in 2016 -that's inflation for you. In my country, inflation has nearly doubled the price of things since 2003. So, what about CCP, Iceland and EVE subscription price?

The question is more complex than it seems. First, because CCP as an Icelandic company operates with ISK (Icelandic Krona), but most of their income comes from foreign currencies like Euro, US Dollar and Sterling Pound. Second, because Iceland's economy and the ISK suffered heavily during the global crisis, but the impact was very different for companies with income in foreign currencies. Third because this all flies over my head... I don't have the knowledge to gather and use the information.

Since CCP can't increase the subscription price, knowing whether they "should be OK" or "are losing money compared to 2003" with their 2003 prices for subscription could prove interesting.

Disclaimer for sake of honesty: My ulterior motive is to figure whether CCP is compensating lost subscriptions or lost purchasing power when they come up with "greed is good" ideas like skill trading.

Can anyone help?


I don't get this strange fascination with CCP's financials, but anyways....

Revenues from 10 years ago would be.

Revenue(t-10) = Subscriptions(t-10)*Price

Adjusting for inflation would give us:

Subscriptions(t-10)*Price*(1 + i)^10

The current revenues are given by:

Subscriptions(t)*Price

Since price is the same in both instances we can drop it giving us, Subscriptions(t-10)*(1 + i)^10 and Subscriptions(t) respectively. So long as the following condition holds revenues will be growing faster than inflation:

Subscriptions(t)/Subscriptions(t-10) > (1 + i)^10.

Or for a year-over-year comparison,

[Subscriptions(t)/Subscriptions(t-1)] - 1 > i.

Where i is the rate of inflation.


The complexity and reason why I am asking it's because CCP operates mostly in ISK but their income is in foreign currencies. So when ISK goes down (and it plummeted) but income is in foreign currencies, a company may be earning more ISK with the same income in foreing currency. The exact variation will depend on the mix of currencies since CCP also spends currencies in their operation (running a server in the UK, having offices abroad).

As I said in my OP, the question is whether CCP is compensating loss of acquisition power, or compensating loss of income.

That is relevant to better estimate the chances that they implement F2P since that possibility is being enabled by CCP's latest actions, like supersize TQ3 as PCU goes down (more capacity for less players...?) or deliver a mean to obtain skills without paying a subscription.
Captain IQ
Innocent Traders Ltd
#19 - 2016-02-09 10:52:37 UTC
It would seem that since the good doctor left CCP seems to be hell bent on letting the market become hyper inflated, the main reason for this is the massive stockpiles of Plex that older players are holding, these need to be exhausted so that more players are forced to inject real cash back into the game.

Let everything cost more so that more players have to sell their Plex stockpiles to sub and buy stuff combined with finding more alternative uses for Plex, resculpturing, dual training etc.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#20 - 2016-02-09 17:27:23 UTC
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
OK, this time I had an idea that flies over my head: has inflation diminished CCP's effective income from EVE subscriptions?

All in all, 15 euros in 2003, could buy more stuff than now in 2016 -that's inflation for you. In my country, inflation has nearly doubled the price of things since 2003. So, what about CCP, Iceland and EVE subscription price?

The question is more complex than it seems. First, because CCP as an Icelandic company operates with ISK (Icelandic Krona), but most of their income comes from foreign currencies like Euro, US Dollar and Sterling Pound. Second, because Iceland's economy and the ISK suffered heavily during the global crisis, but the impact was very different for companies with income in foreign currencies. Third because this all flies over my head... I don't have the knowledge to gather and use the information.

Since CCP can't increase the subscription price, knowing whether they "should be OK" or "are losing money compared to 2003" with their 2003 prices for subscription could prove interesting.

Disclaimer for sake of honesty: My ulterior motive is to figure whether CCP is compensating lost subscriptions or lost purchasing power when they come up with "greed is good" ideas like skill trading.

Can anyone help?


I don't get this strange fascination with CCP's financials, but anyways....

Revenues from 10 years ago would be.

Revenue(t-10) = Subscriptions(t-10)*Price

Adjusting for inflation would give us:

Subscriptions(t-10)*Price*(1 + i)^10

The current revenues are given by:

Subscriptions(t)*Price

Since price is the same in both instances we can drop it giving us, Subscriptions(t-10)*(1 + i)^10 and Subscriptions(t) respectively. So long as the following condition holds revenues will be growing faster than inflation:

Subscriptions(t)/Subscriptions(t-10) > (1 + i)^10.

Or for a year-over-year comparison,

[Subscriptions(t)/Subscriptions(t-1)] - 1 > i.

Where i is the rate of inflation.


The complexity and reason why I am asking it's because CCP operates mostly in ISK but their income is in foreign currencies. So when ISK goes down (and it plummeted) but income is in foreign currencies, a company may be earning more ISK with the same income in foreing currency. The exact variation will depend on the mix of currencies since CCP also spends currencies in their operation (running a server in the UK, having offices abroad).

As I said in my OP, the question is whether CCP is compensating loss of acquisition power, or compensating loss of income.

That is relevant to better estimate the chances that they implement F2P since that possibility is being enabled by CCP's latest actions, like supersize TQ3 as PCU goes down (more capacity for less players...?) or deliver a mean to obtain skills without paying a subscription.



Don't be confused by nominals. Smile

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

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