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Decline in numbers... starting to turn into RAPID!!!

First post
Author
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#3821 - 2016-01-16 00:21:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
King Aires wrote:
2006, start of the year. Average accounts per player on that graph is between 1.25 and 1.5
2015, September. Average accounts per player on that graph is at or slightly above 1.5
…and that's only half of the story. Your claim is that “the game had its greatest numbers when accounts per person was lower than it is today”. What were these numbers in 2006? What are they today?

Quote:
And you keep asking for something I have given you 3 times now, all the while arguing over the meaning of upper and lower bounds which has nothing to do with a graph of raw averages.
I'm asking you for something you've misunderstood every time you've tried and is only half of the puzzle, even after I gave you something more precise to go on, and I've argued that it was very obvious that you were misunderstanding things based on your confusion regarding the upper and lower bounds.
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3822 - 2016-01-16 00:24:24 UTC
Tippia wrote:
King Aires wrote:
2006, start of the year. Average accounts per player on that graph is between 1.25 and 1.5
2015, September. Average accounts per player on that graph is at or slightly above 1.5
…and that's only half of the story. Your claim is that “the game had its greatest numbers when accounts per person was lower than it is today”. What were these numbers in 2006? What are they today?



Fair enough. I don't want to hash through detailed numbers

But, it is plainly clear to see that the number of accounts per player have not dropped and definitely didn't "plunge" correct?

Are you willing to admit that on its face, the graph shows that alts are not being eliminated in mass?
Are you willing to admit that upper and lower bounds for the 2015 calculation of average accounts has absolutely nothing to do with the calculation of previous years?

What are you even trying to argue at this point?
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#3823 - 2016-01-16 00:29:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
King Aires wrote:
Are you willing to admit that on its face, the graph shows that alts are not being eliminated in mass?
No, because it doesn't count alts and it also shows a clear dip in the number of estimated accounts per player.

Quote:
Are you willing to admit that upper and lower bounds for the 2015 calculation of average accounts has absolutely nothing to do with the calculation of previous years?
Are you? You're the one who's confused about this, not me.

Quote:
What are you even trying to argue at this point?
I'm arguing that you don't understand the graph you're basing your claim on. Actually, no, I'm not arguing that (and definitely not “trying to argue”) — you've proven this to be the case beyond any doubt by now. What I am doing is asking you a simple question: when you say that “the game had its greatest numbers when accounts per person was lower than it is today,” what numbers at what dates are you basing this on?
Nana Skalski
Taisaanat Kotei
EDENCOM DEFENSIVE INITIATIVE
#3824 - 2016-01-16 00:32:05 UTC
You are forgetting one thing Aires, these numbers are not about the PCU count. At what rate the alts influence it is so speculative that you and anyone here will have no right to claim it as believable. I only posted my opinion, there were some misconceptions about dates, even more nonsensical speculations could emerge. Its better to stop it because it leads nowhere really.
gnshadowninja
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#3825 - 2016-01-16 00:38:01 UTC  |  Edited by: gnshadowninja
All i know without reading 192 pages is that afew years ago there used to be 60k+ online, now were down to 20 - 30k.

That seems rapid enough to me.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#3826 - 2016-01-16 00:40:33 UTC
gnshadowninja wrote:
All i know without reading 192 pages is that afew years ago there used to be 70k+ online, now were down to 20 - 30k.

That seems rapid enough to me.

They've never been above — or even close to — 70k, so no.
gnshadowninja
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#3827 - 2016-01-16 00:42:40 UTC
Tippia wrote:
gnshadowninja wrote:
All i know without reading 192 pages is that afew years ago there used to be 70k+ online, now were down to 20 - 30k.

That seems rapid enough to me.

They've never been above — or even close to — 70k, so no.


Sorry meant 60k, hit the wrong number :)
Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#3828 - 2016-01-16 00:48:28 UTC
King Aires wrote:
Tippia wrote:
King Aires wrote:
2006, start of the year. Average accounts per player on that graph is between 1.25 and 1.5
2015, September. Average accounts per player on that graph is at or slightly above 1.5
…and that's only half of the story. Your claim is that “the game had its greatest numbers when accounts per person was lower than it is today”. What were these numbers in 2006? What are they today?



Fair enough. I don't want to hash through detailed numbers

But, it is plainly clear to see that the number of accounts per player have not dropped and definitely didn't "plunge" correct?

Are you willing to admit that on its face, the graph shows that alts are not being eliminated in mass?
Are you willing to admit that upper and lower bounds for the 2015 calculation of average accounts has absolutely nothing to do with the calculation of previous years?

What are you even trying to argue at this point?
Pay Tippi no mind. He finds things to argue about when he feels his number one spot as most prolific poster is in doubt. He'll bang out a few hundred nonsensical posts and then disappear again.

Best to simply not respond to him as arguing with him is like banging your head with a brick. It only feels good when you stop.

Mr Epeen Cool
Scipio Artelius
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#3829 - 2016-01-16 00:55:35 UTC
gnshadowninja wrote:
All i know without reading 192 pages is that afew years ago there used to be 70k+ online, now were down to 20 - 30k.

That seems rapid enough to me.

That first bit is just nostalgia.

Eve has never had 70+ K online:

http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

The maximum ever occurred on 5 May 2013: 65,303

Not saying anything about current numbers, just that your memory of the old days is a bit off, which may make it seem things have declined more than they have.

The numbers compared to 2013 are impacted by issues other than decline as well (eg. need to logon regularly because of the limited skill queue, input multiplexing, bots, rise in PLEX prices, etc.) which also contribute to lower login numbers.

We know there has been a drop in player subscriptions. By how much, we don't know.
Nana Skalski
Taisaanat Kotei
EDENCOM DEFENSIVE INITIATIVE
#3830 - 2016-01-16 00:57:06 UTC
Meh, the spikes may have been huge, but I remember, average was something else. In 2011 there were times when there were 20, 30 k, when I played, Those were usual numbers, I didnt considered them low. There was guy who mined in 20+ mining vessels and he was ganked by goons for laughs. You were not able to log in into Jita, so many scammers there were.
gnshadowninja
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#3831 - 2016-01-16 00:58:23 UTC
Scipio Artelius wrote:
gnshadowninja wrote:
All i know without reading 192 pages is that afew years ago there used to be 70k+ online, now were down to 20 - 30k.

That seems rapid enough to me.

That first bit is just nostalgia.

Eve has never had 70+ K online:

http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

The maximum ever occurred on 5 May 2013: 65,303

Not saying anything about current numbers, just that your memory of the old days is a bit off, which may make it seem things have declined more than they have.

The numbers compared to 2013 are impacted by issues other than decline as well (eg. need to logon regularly because of the limited skill queue, input multiplexing, bots, rise in PLEX prices, etc.) which also contribute to lower login numbers.

We know there has been a drop in player subscriptions. By how much, we don't know.


I guess you was writing this while I edited and posted that I hit the wrong number? Big smile

You other thing not considered in this is the amount of free games coming out, console games are far more advanced and addictive (Alot of old friends are playing xbox now instead of Eve) and the decline in the amount of consumers who will pay monthly fee's for games.
Scipio Artelius
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#3832 - 2016-01-16 01:29:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Scipio Artelius
gnshadowninja wrote:
You other thing not considered in this is the amount of free games coming out, console games are far more advanced and addictive (Alot of old friends are playing xbox now instead of Eve) and the decline in the amount of consumers who will pay monthly fee's for games.

I think it's been mentioned a few times in this thread, both as a reason to explain why players are leaving (decline will continue unless CCP make Eve F2P) and to refute that same argument, by suggesting that just affects logons not subscriptions.

It will be interesting to compare PCU numbers against last year and these current months, after the Tribute system is introduced. That's almost the first permanent feature being added to the game designed specifically to reward people that login more than people that skill queue.
Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
#3833 - 2016-01-16 02:03:58 UTC
gnshadowninja wrote:


Sorry meant 60k, hit the wrong number :)

How about using the average of 48k. Rather than the high point.
Since the high point in 2015 was 45k thankyou.

Yes, PCU has dropped, it sure hasn't been rapid, you want rapid, look at the WoW Player graph for 2015.
Compared to other MMO's it's age, EVE is in epic health.
It's rate of growth/fall compares favourably to the average for all MMO's since currently the MMO market is shrinking in the large majority of MMO games. Showing EVE is actually achieving significant success in it's field.
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3834 - 2016-01-16 02:38:54 UTC
Nevyn Auscent wrote:
gnshadowninja wrote:


Sorry meant 60k, hit the wrong number :)

How about using the average of 48k. Rather than the high point.
Since the high point in 2015 was 45k thankyou.

Yes, PCU has dropped, it sure hasn't been rapid, you want rapid, look at the WoW Player graph for 2015.
Compared to other MMO's it's age, EVE is in epic health.
It's rate of growth/fall compares favourably to the average for all MMO's since currently the MMO market is shrinking in the large majority of MMO games. Showing EVE is actually achieving significant success in it's field.


WoW and Eve are the same age.

WoW went from 7.1 Million average subscribers to 5.2million average subscribers in 12 months

Eve went from 28k average users online to 21k average users online in 12 months

We don't know the exact subscriber numbers of Eve, but just judging off their respective drops its 26% for WoW and 25% for Eve

So, WoW does suck, but if you want to make the point that Eve is dying faster than WoW, you can't really say that.
Poddington Bare
Black Mount Industrial
Breakpoint.
#3835 - 2016-01-16 03:14:18 UTC
Mining Titans in Hisec will save the beast.

I'm totally, totally serious.
Nana Skalski
Taisaanat Kotei
EDENCOM DEFENSIVE INITIATIVE
#3836 - 2016-01-16 08:14:07 UTC
gnshadowninja wrote:

You other thing not considered in this is the amount of free games coming out, console games are far more advanced and addictive (Alot of old friends are playing xbox now instead of Eve) and the decline in the amount of consumers who will pay monthly fee's for games.

Addiction is something developers and producers want from game these days and they try to make it as addictive as they can, especiallly with those free to play games, and if the FTP game looks simpler, it is usually more addictive. There is even discusion how far you can go with game being addictive, and really, its something that is not really about EVE.
It always waits there, not imposing anything on me, and i love it because of that.

Other games feel like overly attached girlfrend from this meme.
Remiel Pollard
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#3837 - 2016-01-16 08:23:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Remiel Pollard
King Aires wrote:
Nevyn Auscent wrote:
gnshadowninja wrote:


Sorry meant 60k, hit the wrong number :)

How about using the average of 48k. Rather than the high point.
Since the high point in 2015 was 45k thankyou.

Yes, PCU has dropped, it sure hasn't been rapid, you want rapid, look at the WoW Player graph for 2015.
Compared to other MMO's it's age, EVE is in epic health.
It's rate of growth/fall compares favourably to the average for all MMO's since currently the MMO market is shrinking in the large majority of MMO games. Showing EVE is actually achieving significant success in it's field.


WoW and Eve are the same age.

WoW went from 7.1 Million average subscribers to 5.2million average subscribers in 12 months

Eve went from 28k average users online to 21k average users online in 12 months

We don't know the exact subscriber numbers of Eve, but just judging off their respective drops its 26% for WoW and 25% for Eve

So, WoW does suck, but if you want to make the point that WOW is dying faster than EVE, you can't really say that.


Yes you can.

Firstly, EVE is older than WoW by a year. Secondly, even if we consider your ****** and 100% inconclusive comparison of average people online in a day to active subscriptions, 26% is faster than 25%.

If you want to make an accurate comparison, though, then you need to compare the same periods of time and the same statistic. You haven't done that.

“Some capsuleers claim that ECM is 'dishonorable' and 'unfair'. Jam those ones first, and kill them last.” - Jirai 'Fatal' Laitanen, Pithum Nullifier Training Manual c. YC104

sero Hita
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#3838 - 2016-01-16 09:32:24 UTC  |  Edited by: sero Hita
King Aires wrote:
Remiel Pollard wrote:
What a few people I won't name still refuse to consider, concerning that drop, is how much of it was alts, amongst other variables they seem to be trying very hard to ignore.

New players are coming in every day. I know because I meet them every day. Always someone new. Whether or not they stick around is up to them, but I've never heard of someone quitting a game over a melodramitic forum post. EVE's far from its 'twilight', but even if it wasn't, it'd still be a pretty damn healthy twilight.


Too bad CCP has already stated the number of accounts per unique email/ip/credit card or other identifier has increased.

So alts havent dropped, according to CCP.


The amount of alts per person has not dropped. The thing is this says nothing about if they are online. The PCU registers the amount of people online and the ACU is the average of the PCUs. The change CCP did to input broadcasting could lead to less accounts being online at one time, and perhaps on for shorter times. we simply do not know. This would show up as lower PCU number, and also affect the ACU. So the shown decline could also just be that people log on less accounts even if they pay for them. This was probably what remiel was talking about.

This is the main problem when interpreting on the stats from eveoffline. There could be so many different reason behind a drop in these stats.

As the PCU is measured continuosly it also mean the time you are online affects this stat. So for example If everyone suddenly starts playing 2 hours instead of the 4 they usually would, the PCU would drop (-1 PCU for each player doing this in the two hours extra they would have played normally), and so would the ACU. So when people interpret this as other people quitting it could just as well, be that people play for less hours per day, with less accounts active at a given time point, but they are still paying for all theirs accounts. Hence PCU and ACU are not measures of the overall amount subscribed accounts.


So be aware of putting too much interpretation into PCU and ACU.

"I'm all for pvp, don't get me wrong. I've ganked in Empire, blobed in low sec. Got T-shirts from every which-where.. But to be forced into a pvp confrontation that I didn't want is wrong ccp." RealFlisker

sero Hita
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#3839 - 2016-01-16 09:47:11 UTC
King Aires wrote:

WoW and Eve are the same age.

WoW went from 7.1 Million average subscribers to 5.2million average subscribers in 12 months

Eve went from 28k average users online to 21k average users online in 12 months

We don't know the exact subscriber numbers of Eve, but just judging off their respective drops its 26% for WoW and 25% for Eve

So, WoW does suck, but if you want to make the point that WOW is dying faster than EVE, you can't really say that.


As you said yourself, you don't know the number of subscribers in EVE. So why did you make the comparisson anyway? You know it is wrong, but it fits your point so to heck with it, or what? This is quite manipulative. If you don't have the data, don't make the comparisson. Discuss something else.

Remiel Pollard wrote:

Yes you can.

Firstly, EVE is older than WoW by a year. Secondly, even if we consider your ****** and 100% inconclusive comparison of average people online in a day to active subscriptions, 26% is faster than 25%.

If you want to make an accurate comparison, though, then you need to compare the same periods of time and the same statistic. You haven't done that.


Well, if we ignore that the EVE numbers are not comparable to the WOW numbers, you cannot claim that 26% is faster than 25% without knowing the uncertainties(the sample variation often depicted as standard deviation or a confidence interval) on the measurements. Usually people also uses some kind of statistical analysis to compare, with the given variance if two measurements are the same or not.

"I'm all for pvp, don't get me wrong. I've ganked in Empire, blobed in low sec. Got T-shirts from every which-where.. But to be forced into a pvp confrontation that I didn't want is wrong ccp." RealFlisker

Indahmawar Fazmarai
#3840 - 2016-01-16 09:51:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Indahmawar Fazmarai
Meanwhile, in other news, in a certain game which obviously is not EVE Online and doesn't competes with it and yadda yadda yadda, explorers have discovered alien structures.

Alien. Structures. Have been discovered by explorers actually exploring star systems and planets.

There's many things EVE does well, and others it does bad. But watch out the competitors. They're doing what EVE never did and never will.