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Decline in numbers... starting to turn into RAPID!!!

First post
Author
sero Hita
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#3621 - 2016-01-10 11:36:31 UTC
Solecist Project wrote:

I do wonder when people will realize that PCU is pretty worthless as a metric ...
... because it only ever reflects the USTZ anyway.

At least so far. I guess that's going to change!


PCU is the measurement, the period average ACU is the mathematical descriptor of the average PCU in a given time. Meaning that following ACU over time is a good way to describe the development in PCU over time accounting for there are differences in people online during the day. So when people write about trends in PCU they often mean rather ACU, which accounts for all the time zones. And tbh. I thought i read somewhere in a dev blog that the european time zone is the most active??? can't find the link though. But if you look at eveoffline, the highest peaks during the day in PCU are at 19-21 eve time which is where the european corps in our alliance are active.

"I'm all for pvp, don't get me wrong. I've ganked in Empire, blobed in low sec. Got T-shirts from every which-where.. But to be forced into a pvp confrontation that I didn't want is wrong ccp." RealFlisker

Solecist Project
#3622 - 2016-01-10 11:39:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Solecist Project
sero Hita wrote:
Solecist Project wrote:

I do wonder when people will realize that PCU is pretty worthless as a metric ...
... because it only ever reflects the USTZ anyway.

At least so far. I guess that's going to change!


PCU is the measurement, the period average ACU is the mathematical descriptor of the average PCU in a given time. Meaning that following ACU over time is a good way to describe the development in PCU over time accounting for there are differences in people online during the day. So when people write about trends in PCU they often mean rather ACU, which accounts for all the time zones. And tbh. I thought i read somewhere in a dev blog that the european time zone is the most active??? can't find the link though. But if you look at eveoffline, the highest peaks during the day in PCU are at 19-21 eve time which is where the european corps in our alliance are active.

Really?

It always seemed to me that the most people were around when the USAmericans got online.
In any case do I not agree on using PCU and ACU as a metric for activity around the whole day.

It's not accurate enough at all. I'd rather have people look at the highest numbers online for every hour each day,
and base their opinions on that. It's far more accurate and descriptive of what's going on.



And now ends my free time.

Back to reality.

That ringing in your ears you're experiencing right now is the last gasping breathe of a dying inner ear as it got thoroughly PULVERISED by the point roaring over your head at supersonic speeds. - Tippia

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3623 - 2016-01-10 14:04:14 UTC
sero Hita wrote:


No one disputes that the ACU numbers are dropping. But again the trend for the least half year is stable. It is not in rapid decline. I like how you couple the small increase to the PVE special events, and not the aggresive resub campaign CCP has been runnning.

Everyone can read into the numbers what they want, an example
The anticipation of the command destroyers made people made people join up again, and now that people have tried them, they want them. this is clearly shown by the small increase in ACU in the last months. So for EVE to grow we need more different command destroyers! If not EVE will die. this has as much validity as your statement and is just as wrong.

I also don't think you can measure the health of the game, based on how many people are in the spanish language channel(which is what I assume you mean with community?). I have not been in my native language channel for two years, but I did not leave the game. Out of interest are you also as negative there as you are here? In that case you might have increased the rate at which people leave the channel. One person complaining alot can really destroy the mood of a channel, and would you go there then if it is not fun? If this is not the case, and your are a beaming light of hope in the spanish community, then disregards my question.


I btw. am still dissapointed you did not comment on the questions I had about the validity of your interpretation of CCP quants data


That is nice. But if we look at year to year comparisons we see that the decline has not stopped. Just because we are seeing a boost in numbers right now doesn't mean the historical trend is as strong as it was last year and the year before.

In fact we are only up less than 10% right now of average players but every January-February we normally see much higher growth.

So are the numbers dropping? No
Are the numbers expected to rise this time of year? Yes
Are the numbers rising as fast as they should to match historical comparison? Not even close.

So, what do we do to prevent another March-July decline like we just had in 2015, but this time from a base of 23k average instead of 30k average like last year?

Consider this a possible dead-cat bounce.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#3624 - 2016-01-10 14:16:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Admiral Bill Adama wrote:
I remember logging in years ago and seeing 90k plus players on at any given time... The massive decline in numbers started when C.O.D.E came into play,
Your memory is faulty, you're out by around 20,000 and the peak was in April 2013; at least 6 months after James 315 and his band of merry mayhem mongering marauders started their commerce raiding operations.

Quote:
you want more people playing and new blood coming in kick the new order aka code out of high sec end their clear violation of the tos.
IIRC most agents of the New Order make sure to stay within the terms of TOS, the whole permit thing is a direct result of that. They may tread very close to the line on occasion but very rarely cross it.

In my experience Eve is less brutal now than at any time since 2009, in their endeavour to attract players from more mainstream games CCP have either watered down, or removed completely, so many mechanics that allowed us to affect other players that their tagline is becoming a lie.

Some of the decline in player numbers is by design, an example would be the banning of input broadcasting; but for the most part, as Jenn so nicely puts it, when Eve was harder and more unforgiving it had more active players than it does today.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Solecist Project
#3625 - 2016-01-10 14:27:44 UTC
Bring back hardcore.

I bet I couldn't be a worse CSM than the others.

That ringing in your ears you're experiencing right now is the last gasping breathe of a dying inner ear as it got thoroughly PULVERISED by the point roaring over your head at supersonic speeds. - Tippia

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#3626 - 2016-01-10 14:33:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Solecist Project wrote:
Bring back hardcore.

I bet I couldn't be a worse CSM than the others.
I dunno, there was that one with the really long character name that used to throw spoons at people. And I fail at reading...Oops

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Solecist Project
#3627 - 2016-01-10 14:49:00 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Solecist Project wrote:
Bring back hardcore.

I bet I couldn't be a worse CSM than the others.
I dunno, there was that one with the really long character name that used to throw spoons at people.

Not sure how my post fits to that...

That ringing in your ears you're experiencing right now is the last gasping breathe of a dying inner ear as it got thoroughly PULVERISED by the point roaring over your head at supersonic speeds. - Tippia

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#3628 - 2016-01-10 14:54:52 UTC
Solecist Project wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Solecist Project wrote:
Bring back hardcore.

I bet I couldn't be a worse CSM than the others.
I dunno, there was that one with the really long character name that used to throw spoons at people.

Not sure how my post fits to that...
yeah I misread your post as you could be worse :doh:

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3629 - 2016-01-10 15:12:28 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Admiral Bill Adama wrote:
I remember logging in years ago and seeing 90k plus players on at any given time... The massive decline in numbers started when C.O.D.E came into play,
Your memory is faulty, you're out by around 20,000 and the peak was in April 2013; at least 6 months after James 315 and his band of merry mayhem mongering marauders started their commerce raiding operations.

Quote:
you want more people playing and new blood coming in kick the new order aka code out of high sec end their clear violation of the tos.
IIRC most agents of the New Order make sure to stay within the terms of TOS, the whole permit thing is a direct result of that. They may tread very close to the line on occasion but very rarely cross it.

In my experience Eve is less brutal now than at any time since 2009, in their endeavour to attract players from more mainstream games CCP have either watered down, or removed completely, so many mechanics that allowed us to affect other players that their tagline is becoming a lie.

Some of the decline in player numbers is by design, an example would be the banning of input broadcasting; but for the most part, as Jenn so nicely puts it, when Eve was harder and more unforgiving it had more active players than it does today.



First, the TOS violations he is talking about it the biomass/recycling of -10 characters to get new blank slate and now with the extra starting SP, ready to go gank alts.

Jenn thinks we had more players when Eve was more "hardcore" but that depends on your definition of "hardcore" and when said "hardcore" ceased to exist. Some would argue Eve has never been more "hardcore". Jenn just moves the goal posts and strawmans through every discussion anyways so I wouldn't be using him as a source of reference.
Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
#3630 - 2016-01-10 15:18:02 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Solecist Project wrote:
Bring back hardcore.

I bet I couldn't be a worse CSM than the others.
I dunno, there was that one with the really long character name that used to throw spoons at people. And I fail at reading...Oops



Ankesamenpatakah, or however the furries spell it

Perfection is a dish best served like wasabi .

Bumble's Space Log

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#3631 - 2016-01-10 15:24:43 UTC
sero Hita wrote:

Everyone can read into the numbers what they want, an example


No need to reply to your previous replies, when you agree with me about how meaningless are the "stats".
Yeah, you get "numbers" but then everybody pulls those numbers their way and "color" the numbers with the agenda they want the others to believe.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#3632 - 2016-01-10 15:27:19 UTC
Solecist Project wrote:
sero Hita wrote:
Solecist Project wrote:

I do wonder when people will realize that PCU is pretty worthless as a metric ...
... because it only ever reflects the USTZ anyway.

At least so far. I guess that's going to change!


PCU is the measurement, the period average ACU is the mathematical descriptor of the average PCU in a given time. Meaning that following ACU over time is a good way to describe the development in PCU over time accounting for there are differences in people online during the day. So when people write about trends in PCU they often mean rather ACU, which accounts for all the time zones. And tbh. I thought i read somewhere in a dev blog that the european time zone is the most active??? can't find the link though. But if you look at eveoffline, the highest peaks during the day in PCU are at 19-21 eve time which is where the european corps in our alliance are active.

Really?

It always seemed to me that the most people were around when the USAmericans got online.
In any case do I not agree on using PCU and ACU as a metric for activity around the whole day.

It's not accurate enough at all. I'd rather have people look at the highest numbers online for every hour each day,
and base their opinions on that. It's far more accurate and descriptive of what's going on.



And now ends my free time.

Back to reality.



I don't believe in the importance of stats (as you might have read several times).

I believe in physical feedback. When EvE does good, I log in and my character gets forcibly moved out of Jita during log on, because the node reached the maximum amount of players. Jita is a good indicator of how "lively" is the game.

Now, it's months I don't get moved. Used to get moved 3 times out of 4 in the past.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#3633 - 2016-01-10 15:35:11 UTC
King Aires wrote:
First, the TOS violations he is talking about it the biomass/recycling of -10 characters to get new blank slate and now with the extra starting SP, ready to go gank alts.
Except that doesn't happen, CODE. don't give 2 shites about sec status so there's no need for them to do it and risk a ban; retiring a character with a negative sec status isn't a TOS violation, recycling it via biomassing is, and people get banned for doing so.


In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#3634 - 2016-01-10 16:04:47 UTC
Gregor Parud wrote:

In EVE PVE is a means to an end: fund yourself (for the next bit of PVP) and because of that (and the limitations that come with the whole large scale combat framework) PVE is limited, without story or meaning. In other games (and E:D) PVE is there for the sake of PVE itself because that is what the game really has to offer and because of that, and the small sale of the game, it can (and has to) offer "meaningful" PVE.


First of all I'd like to thank you, because you put thought and care in writing your reply.

I still beg to disagree on a portion of it.

EvE is sold as a free form sandbox. I have played "PvP centric" sandboxes and they don't truly compare. The first "sign" of a PvP sandbox is it giving missions where you kill NN enemy players and get paid money. Not rats.
The second is, even in case of PvE, those games really have it as bare as possible: go kill NN NPCs and get back and little else. EvE got multi-phase missions, exploration with NPCs inside, incursions... Resources have been spent into placing this PvE content in a lore perspective as well.


And it's good to be so, because if you want a PvP game, you either create a symmetrical environment (everybody involved is armed, willing, and ready => many games do this) or you create a "chain food", more natural environment, with its gazelles and its lions. Gazelle players however need to be actually enticed to be there and interesting PvE (and mining!) would do that.


Gregor Parud wrote:

Granted, E:D exploration sounds really awesome. My Asp Explorer with 4 SRV is somewhere completely silly, I didn't go for the obvious targets I just pointed in a general direction and went "I'll go that way" but can you see yourself doing this for 2 years? 5? How about 12 years? It's the same with SC "oh I'll have Squadron 42, PVE!", sounds awesome but then (per usual) people will rush through it, repeat it 2-3 times and go "well that was limited, we need more content!". People are looking at things from the hype pov, it's all fresh, new and their imagination hasn't yet been crushed by the obvious reality that PVE is very repetitive and (just like a single player game) pretty much meaningless in and of itself.


You know, you may get into a Viper, go in "player mode" and then fly to one of the known hot PvP areas. VoilĂ , in the worst case you have to wait as much as you'd have to wait in EvE to get your PvP fill.

Also, piracy is much more fun, actually tackling and play "catch and flee" games brings some additional variables to what in EvE is exclusively about:

1) Go to known 0.4 system.
2) Have 2+ accounts.
3) Get insta-lock setup. It invariably locks people and pins them down, very tiny variation and thus fun yields to repetition.
4) Places is always the same: either at the gate or (rarely) at a station. That's it, rinse and repeat.

YAWN!

Gazelle in the process gets discouraged because the above little "procedure" works 100% (if done well), he just gets NO ESCAPE unless he forgets his favourite ships and only use proven, copycat gate running ships and fittings.

Imo in this "gank process" ED is so more fun and varied than EvE it just puts it to shame.

Is this "extra stuff" so wrong? To ask for EvE to be less catered to F1 spammers who get F1 => repeatable result?

Even something as stupid as mining: in EvE you copy and paste THE min maxed fitting with best tank vs yield. Fly to roids. Press F1. Wait for NN minutes. Yawn. Get back to station. Or dump into Orca (with an hellishly clunky cargo implementation).

In ED you have a much more active role. Sure, pressing F1 won't be enough. And if you get attacked, you can have fit your ship to defend itself despite being a mining setup.


Would make mining in EvE less of a vein-slitting process go against its PvP nature? Don't think so. It's just 10 years people ask for that and all they got is stupidly overpowered tank.

Also, not regarding ED: in any smart game you have big reward where's big risk.


What do you get in EvE for having purchased the best scan bonus ship, best probes and spending minutes with them? Some pathetic and utterly useless mining field. They are the most difficult thing to scan, reward is just not there.

What do you get for living in a WH? Or for living in low sec? Or even for living in NPC nullsec?
In one you are not spoonfed by mommy local chat, in the others "THERE BE LIONS".

However the best reward is given to F1 mummies in sov 0.0. The most features, the most extended ability to build structures, the "sites" and so on.

As a minimum, remove local from sov null sec and even that would not be enough to counter balance how dangerous is to live in low sec or NPC null sec, much less WHs.

But no, CCP caters to the "elders", to those who spam 2k ships on grid, exactly like in my other MMOs that slowly died because "elders" became the dictators of how the game MUST work: with them strictly stuck in their comfort zone, with advantages no new player can dream of for years (how many give up, when they learn they'll take 5+ years just to get vaguely competitive...).


Gregor Parud wrote:

On your statement that solo or small gang pvp takes time and effort, if you can waste time in E:D fuel scooping at some distant sun you can also plan PVP in EVE :)


My ASP explorer got a 6A fuel scoop. It takes too little time to refill to call it "waste time" Blink
King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3635 - 2016-01-10 16:07:17 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
King Aires wrote:
First, the TOS violations he is talking about it the biomass/recycling of -10 characters to get new blank slate and now with the extra starting SP, ready to go gank alts.
Except that doesn't happen, CODE. don't give 2 shites about sec status so there's no need for them to do it and risk a ban; retiring a character with a negative sec status isn't a TOS violation, recycling it via biomassing is, and people get banned for doing so.




Yes they do it. There are guides to doing it on popular pro-gank sites. You are free to look them up. And it isn't always about sec status, they do it so you can't watch list the gankers and know when they are coming.

Also, -10 can be somewhat limiting in High Sec, probably not as limiting as Lore, Logic and people would like, but its easy to bio/restart than it is to sec back up.

Not that any of it matters, you seem very emotional about this. I find that odd considering I took no stance pro or con to the action, just pointing out what I felt he meant by his comment.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#3636 - 2016-01-10 16:29:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
King Aires wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
King Aires wrote:
First, the TOS violations he is talking about it the biomass/recycling of -10 characters to get new blank slate and now with the extra starting SP, ready to go gank alts.
Except that doesn't happen, CODE. don't give 2 shites about sec status so there's no need for them to do it and risk a ban; retiring a character with a negative sec status isn't a TOS violation, recycling it via biomassing is, and people get banned for doing so.




Yes they do it. There are guides to doing it on popular pro-gank sites. You are free to look them up. And it isn't always about sec status, they do it so you can't watch list the gankers and know when they are coming.

Also, -10 can be somewhat limiting in High Sec, probably not as limiting as Lore, Logic and people would like, but its easy to bio/restart than it is to sec back up.
There's a huge difference between retiring a -10 character to start anew on another character slot/account and biomassing one to start anew in the same character slot; one is a bannable offence, the other is not.

Quote:
Not that any of it matters, you seem very emotional about this. I find that odd considering I took no stance pro or con to the action, just pointing out what I felt he meant by his comment.
I'm merely pointing out that CCP do enforce the rules regarding the recycling of neg status alts for the purpose of creating a new character and avoiding the "consequences" of said sec status. Gankers are much more likely to retire a gank alt, which is not a rule violation, than to biomass it, which is a rule violation, because of that enforcement and the punishment attached.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

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Feyd's Survival Pack

King Aires
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3637 - 2016-01-10 17:17:37 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
King Aires wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
King Aires wrote:
First, the TOS violations he is talking about it the biomass/recycling of -10 characters to get new blank slate and now with the extra starting SP, ready to go gank alts.
Except that doesn't happen, CODE. don't give 2 shites about sec status so there's no need for them to do it and risk a ban; retiring a character with a negative sec status isn't a TOS violation, recycling it via biomassing is, and people get banned for doing so.




Yes they do it. There are guides to doing it on popular pro-gank sites. You are free to look them up. And it isn't always about sec status, they do it so you can't watch list the gankers and know when they are coming.

Also, -10 can be somewhat limiting in High Sec, probably not as limiting as Lore, Logic and people would like, but its easy to bio/restart than it is to sec back up.
There's a huge difference between retiring a -10 character to start anew on another character slot/account and biomassing one to start anew in the same character slot; one is a bannable offence, the other is not.

Quote:
Not that any of it matters, you seem very emotional about this. I find that odd considering I took no stance pro or con to the action, just pointing out what I felt he meant by his comment.
I'm merely pointing out that CCP do enforce the rules regarding the recycling of neg status alts for the purpose of creating a new character and avoiding the "consequences" of said sec status. Gankers are much more likely to retire a gank alt, which is not a rule violation, than to biomass it, which is a rule violation, because of that enforcement and the punishment attached.



Now I am confused. Originally you said they didn't do it at all, now you are saying they do it in a way to not get banned.

Like I said, there are guides to do it in a way that CCP looks the other way.

And none of this belongs here because recycling or biomassing of -10 alts have little to nothing to do with player average activity and total subscribers.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#3638 - 2016-01-10 17:39:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
King Aires wrote:
Now I am confused. Originally you said they didn't do it at all, now you are saying they do it in a way to not get banned.
Yes you are, and no I'm not. You specified recycling/biomassing, I said that gankers don't do that because it breaks the rules, if they wish to roll a new alt and start anew they are far more likely to retire a gank alt and roll a new character on a spare character slot to stay within the rules.

Quote:
Like I said, there are guides to do it in a way that CCP looks the other way.
Yes there are, and they are ways that don't involve breaking the rules regarding recycling or biomassing, ergo they aren't ToS violations which makes the whole premise in your original reply to myself moot.

Quote:
And none of this belongs here because recycling or biomassing of -10 alts have little to nothing to do with player average activity and total subscribers.
According to many of the doomsayers player average activity and total sub numbers are directly affected by things like this, so yeah it does belong here in a roundabout way.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

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Feyd's Survival Pack

Solecist Project
#3639 - 2016-01-10 19:11:48 UTC
38k+ and we haven't reached peak yet.


Can this finally be closed?

That ringing in your ears you're experiencing right now is the last gasping breathe of a dying inner ear as it got thoroughly PULVERISED by the point roaring over your head at supersonic speeds. - Tippia

Gregor Parud
Imperial Academy
#3640 - 2016-01-10 19:53:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Gregor Parud
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Stuff



PVP centric does not mean PVP only, it means that a majority of things are PVP in various ways which it is and much moreso than any other current active MMO that doesn't completely suck. Also, when they were making EVE it was actually the case that NPC and PVEing were an afterthought resulting in the earliest belt rats being uhm... interesting, that is why PVE has sucked since forever because it wasn't on their to do list at all.

Your vision of what a PVP game is is quite limited tbh.

...

it's exactly the same in ED, people sit in a known system at the point of entry (sun) or destination (station), preferably with friends and gank everything they can find. Also, there is no "instalocking" in EVE, it doesn't exist. The point is that because of how the server works in E:D it's not actually a persistent world and because people can do solo play there isn't much interaction other than "lol gank". The chance of 2 random people bumping into each other in E:D and going "you know what, we should make a clan and get some teamwork going" is pretty much nil because it lacks that sort of interaction, it's meaningless as an MMO.

And again, your vision of what PVP in EVE is is very limited. I go out on PVP trips all the time, solo or sometimes with 1-2 friends. We don't camp, we don't use lol ships, gang links or anything and we certainly don't sit still. We roam and it's great fun and works just fine. Sure, you might/will die at some point but so what?

---

I'm not at all against changes to mining, I'd welcome it if only to see non-effort semi-afk miners rage like hell and extra stuff is nice and good but the issue is that you're comparing a 1st person sim game to an RTS (which is what EVE effectively is). How are you going to make mining "fun" in an RTS with all the limitations and constraints that come with such a game type?

I'm not a fan of large fleets either and I love how CCP is slowly working to battle them a bit but at the end of the day that is what EVE is, a large scale PVP centrix MMO where anything goes. And how much should EVE change in order for you (or me) to a point where we'd fully agree to what can be done, it wouldn't be EVE any more (which is the main point I'm trying to make), it'd be an NGE and would have the exact same result as it had in SWG.

I didn't mean the action of scooping itself but rather putting in the effort to get lost amongst the stars :) Also, I want to have 4 SRV because I don't want to end up in some arse end of space behind a 40+ LY jump and then lose my single SRV and being unable to make it back because of that. 3A scoop will have to do.