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Quafe Zero
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Chekov Nikahd
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#1 - 2016-01-04 05:13:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Chekov Nikahd
Got a feeling the price is gonna drop further.

There's about 6 years worth (and counting!) of quafe zero dumped on the market so far, and price only fell by half. About every 5-7 days another years supply goes on the market. Total daily trade volume is up about 100x from previous baseline. I'd be willing to bet pretty much everyone trading it right now is a speculator. I've heard of people with 5,000+ stockpiled up in WH space still, so even after frostline ends (next day or two? Already?) the supply increase is going to continue, probably for a month or three.

When's the panic sell coming?

Some numbers:
~24-25 million units on the market over the course of about a month

For the past 2-3 years before Frostline, total volume was around 11,000 per day.

24m / 11k = 2181 days of supply. Divide by 360 = ~6 years of supply.

AFAIK, this isn't the ACTUAL volume of product, since stuff that gets bought, relisted and sold is counted twice (or more) from all the trading, but still, it's a very big increase, and I frankly don't see the price staying where it is right now for much longer.

Where's the floor? My guess is somewhere between 2-5m isk, but that's just poor intuition, not math.

Edit: I should add, literally 99% of the trade going on right now is people buying. Very little of the overall supply is being sold.
Cista2
EVE Museum
#2 - 2016-01-04 07:11:30 UTC
You don't know the 2016 daily volume of the product.

FYI, Geno 3 and 4 were given out for the second time more than half a year ago. Over half a year later, the daily volume is still TWO HUNDRED times higher than the volume before the re-release.

The People like Quafe. The People need Quafe.

My channel: "Signatures" -
Chekov Nikahd
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#3 - 2016-01-04 07:26:32 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
The People like Quafe. The People need Quafe.

They sure do.


p.s. sell orders are beginning to pick up a bit. Think the sell-off is coming.
Get your liquid isk ready Pirate
Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
#4 - 2016-01-04 07:31:12 UTC
The price is already at or very near the bottom.

When they first introduced the stuff they gave every account something like 4-5 cans of QZ. Evem woth all that supply the price was about 4m/can and could only be traded on contracts. It took 4+ years for the price to go from 4m/can to just under 20m/can in jita.

As soon as word got out that they were re-introducing QZ in the December patch people like me liquidated our stockpiles.

As soon as frostlines end we will return to the situation where we have a useful consumable with a fixed supply. Like before prices have no place to go but up. They are not going to go up quickly, but they will rise. It will likely take a year or 2 for the price to get back to pre-frostline levels.

Assuming they don't re-re-introduce QZ (or something similar) in a later patch owning the stuff is a good long-term investment imo.

Rothbard's Casino
Cista2
EVE Museum
#5 - 2016-01-04 07:52:37 UTC
Edwin Rothbard wrote:
The price is already at or very near the bottom.
In fact there was a bottom 10 days ago when price hit 5 mil in Forge, 4 mil in many other regions. I doubt it will go below that again, but we'll see.

My channel: "Signatures" -
Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
#6 - 2016-01-04 08:03:13 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
In fact there was a bottom 10 days ago when price hit 5 mil in Forge, 4 mil in many other regions. I doubt it will go below that again, but we'll see.


Agreed. I just checked the 3 month price history graph in game and the "panic" selling was from late november to mid december and the bottom came in right after that. Now begins the slow slog upwards.

Rothbard's Casino
Solecist Project
#7 - 2016-01-04 15:11:04 UTC
Excuse me ... how can you determine a bottom?
I mean... why can't the price drop even lower, considering the insane amount of them?

That ringing in your ears you're experiencing right now is the last gasping breathe of a dying inner ear as it got thoroughly PULVERISED by the point roaring over your head at supersonic speeds. - Tippia
Cista2
EVE Museum
#8 - 2016-01-04 15:37:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
Solecist Project wrote:
Excuse me ... how can you determine a bottom?
I mean... why can't the price drop even lower, considering the insane amount of them?
Hence *a* bottom.
I am guessing your 30,000 likes did not come from MD, during my absence.

My channel: "Signatures" -
Solecist Project
#9 - 2016-01-04 15:54:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Solecist Project
Cista2 wrote:
Solecist Project wrote:
Excuse me ... how can you determine a bottom?
I mean... why can't the price drop even lower, considering the insane amount of them?
Hence *a* bottom.
I am guessing your 30,000 likes did not come from MD, during my absence.

No, but they have no meaning whatsoever anyway.

Yes, a bottom. "Very near the bottom", see above, which means it won't go lower than that.
Hence my question how people determine such an "above zero" bottom.

If you don't like me asking questions, there's a "hide posts" button on the left. :)

That ringing in your ears you're experiencing right now is the last gasping breathe of a dying inner ear as it got thoroughly PULVERISED by the point roaring over your head at supersonic speeds. - Tippia
Cista2
EVE Museum
#10 - 2016-01-04 16:40:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
Solecist Project wrote:
"Very near the bottom", see above
Sorry, I thought your remark was directed at me.

The important thing when looking at the graph is that is that it has moved slowly and deliberately after the initial announcement shock. The bottom at 5 mil came after more than 10 days of availability of the things, and the price has since climbed slowly to double that price. If it should fall down towards 5 mil again, most people that have sold at 9-10 mil will be very happy to buy again.
Very very happy.

My channel: "Signatures" -
Solecist Project
#11 - 2016-01-05 15:21:07 UTC
Thank you!

That ringing in your ears you're experiencing right now is the last gasping breathe of a dying inner ear as it got thoroughly PULVERISED by the point roaring over your head at supersonic speeds. - Tippia