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Heavy water and other speculations on the upcoming citadels
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Ammri
Solar Sanctum
#1 - 2015-10-29 07:44:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Ammri
Hi everyone,

I have been doing a fair bit of reading and researching on the citadels that were spoken about at the EVE Vegas event.

As some of you may know this caused quite a massive speculation doubling, quadrupling, and in some instances increasing prices in tenfold on the t1 and t2 salvage materials, as these will most certainly be required for the production of the rigs for said citadels.

It will be very interesting to see how and if PI materials and production will be an essential aspect of these new releases.

In regards to upkeeping and maintaining these structures I am curious as to how this will affect the prices on heavy water and other ice products.

Can someone perhaps also enlighten me on why heavy water has had a steady increase, nearly doubling in price over the past three months ?

Any questions answered and insights given would be much appreciated.


-Am
virm pasuul
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#2 - 2015-10-29 11:31:08 UTC
I think it will take a little while to understand where the best profits are to be made with the new changes. I was planning on doing a lot of spread sheeting this weekend.

I haven't yet had time to look at the salvage price rises :(, but my gut feeling is that it will spike heavily to start with and then drop off a bit. Long term prices will probably be less than half the initial spike. Two factors here:

1 Speculators usually kick the price way higher bubble than the genuine end demand generated price, look at megacyte and zydrine prices for a prime example of this.

2 The changes are a long way off. Speculators will want to make a quick buck and drop out. They last thing they want is their money tied up until the changes come out. And don't forget that timescale is release of the BPOs, not consumption which is even further out. Take biggest profit example XL - BPO copy and manufacture will add another month or two to the release date. Consumption is quite a long way off in Eve timescale.

This timescale also allows consumers plenty of time to adjust and prepare before the changes hit. This preparation time will allow consumers a chance to reduce the impact of the changes. Expect a lot more people to salvage wrecks where before they didn't bother. And that's not even just the end consumers. People who have no intention of building citadels will probably start salvaging because hey the price has gone up so why not take the extra money? Expect the large null alliances to already be generating and stockpiling salvage and materials.

Ironically the tools of the salvaging trade may turn out to be a nice little side market. Expect the price of Noctises ( Noctii? ) and salvage modules, tractor beams, mobile tractor units, to rise as people start to prepare.

Capitals too will come back into fashion, and therein lies a whole 'nother market...........
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#3 - 2015-10-29 13:32:42 UTC
Broadly I'm avoiding directly reacting to announcements.

I'm still in on PI mats, but that was a decision made for entirely different factors. I think they are fundamentally undervalued as the inputs required to create them are player attention minutes and character subscribed months - two things that are getting scarcer in EVE - while they are traded for liquid ISK, something that is getting more common. Yet the ratio between the two had hardly moved.

I intend to buy a commodity that is currently in unprecedented oversupply and at historically low prices but disclosing what it is can wait until I have at least 25, preferably 50 billion invested in it.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
virm pasuul
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#4 - 2015-10-29 14:27:43 UTC
I think CCP announcement reaction is a great way to make money. I did very well off megacyte and zydrine.
I do think the current announcement needs a lot more analysis to reduce risk and increase profit from any investment.

There also the broader question of how will it affect the Eve overall? More small fights? More large fights? Any changes in doctrines? Capital use? etc...... What will happen to consumption and supply? Waht's on the horizon? Are player built stargates still a future thing?

I think citadels bring player built stargates one step closer. And where that will lead is anyone's guess :)


With regard to player numbers. CCP is spending a ton of money on the new server hardware. I can only assume they are happy with player numbers to be splashing out so much cash on shiney. One might also guess that possibly the new shiney fits in with long term CCP plans for the game. Maybe they will be able to do new things they can't currently do......... Maybe that will be reflected in future game play in Eve........


The skill point market and haloween bribe seems to point towards a future where nothing is off limits for being re-examined and deconstructed by CCP. Interesting times ahead :)


For me Eve has got strong leadership and direction for the future. It's a good time to be playing Eve :)
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#5 - 2015-10-30 14:43:58 UTC
virm pasuul wrote:
I think CCP announcement reaction is a great way to make money. I did very well off megacyte and zydrine.
I do think the current announcement needs a lot more analysis to reduce risk and increase profit from any investment.

There also the broader question of how will it affect the Eve overall? More small fights? More large fights? Any changes in doctrines? Capital use? etc...... What will happen to consumption and supply? Waht's on the horizon? Are player built stargates still a future thing?

I think citadels bring player built stargates one step closer. And where that will lead is anyone's guess :)


With regard to player numbers. CCP is spending a ton of money on the new server hardware. I can only assume they are happy with player numbers to be splashing out so much cash on shiney. One might also guess that possibly the new shiney fits in with long term CCP plans for the game. Maybe they will be able to do new things they can't currently do......... Maybe that will be reflected in future game play in Eve........


The skill point market and haloween bribe seems to point towards a future where nothing is off limits for being re-examined and deconstructed by CCP. Interesting times ahead :)


For me Eve has got strong leadership and direction for the future. It's a good time to be playing Eve :)



See my reaction to the mineral announcement was to see it 12 hours late, look at Zyd and Mega and come to the conclusion "I've missed this boat" and ask what else was going to happen as a flow on.

I correctly called the direction of Morphite and Mexallon, bought half a million units of Morphite (resold at +80% later) and sold all my Mexallon before it crashed (not that I had much, maybe 7m units).

Sadly I was a little off on Mex - I'd decided "If it hits 35 I'm buying 250 million units". It got close but not quite to that trigger point so I didn't buy - had I done that I would have sold it at the 58-60 mark.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Gadolf Agalder
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#6 - 2015-10-31 15:27:35 UTC
Ammri wrote:
Hi everyone,

I have been doing a fair bit of reading and researching on the citadels that were spoken about at the EVE Vegas event.

As some of you may know this caused quite a massive speculation doubling, quadrupling, and in some instances increasing prices in tenfold on the t1 and t2 salvage materials, as these will most certainly be required for the production of the rigs for said citadels.

It will be very interesting to see how and if PI materials and production will be an essential aspect of these new releases.

In regards to upkeeping and maintaining these structures I am curious as to how this will affect the prices on heavy water and other ice products.

Can someone perhaps also enlighten me on why heavy water has had a steady increase, nearly doubling in price over the past three months ?

Any questions answered and insights given would be much appreciated.


-Am

let me see this
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2015-11-01 02:41:54 UTC
some of the material requirements for salvage are complete bonkers.

it's good to see some of the lesser used (T1) salvage being relevant for citadels (and i certainly made my investments there)

however, most of the T2 variants simply aren't available in the required quantities.

i expect to see some changes there.



adriaans
Ankaa.
Nair Al-Zaurak
#8 - 2015-11-01 09:00:59 UTC
Gilbaron wrote:
some of the material requirements for salvage are complete bonkers.

it's good to see some of the lesser used (T1) salvage being relevant for citadels (and i certainly made my investments there)

however, most of the T2 variants simply aren't available in the required quantities.

i expect to see some changes there.






I expect to see changes for the T2 ones too... even building just one batch of t2 ship rigs between my characters I empty out several trade hubs for up to several weeks depending on the input.
Either T2 rig stuff rises dramatically in price and CCP is fine with that, or they have to change something.

----True oldschool solo pvp'er---- My latest vid: Insanity IV
Ammri
Solar Sanctum
#9 - 2015-11-02 16:13:46 UTC
Quote:
however, most of the T2 variants simply aren't available in the required quantities.

i expect to see some changes there.


Have you had some insight as to what kind of numbers will be required to make rigs?
Brewlar Kuvakei
Adeptio Gloriae
#10 - 2015-11-04 09:08:44 UTC
virm pasuul wrote:
I think CCP announcement reaction is a great way to make money. I did very well off megacyte and zydrine.
I do think the current announcement needs a lot more analysis to reduce risk and increase profit from any investment.



High end PI has already rocketed, speculation over.
Ammri
Solar Sanctum
#11 - 2015-11-04 15:01:01 UTC
Quote:
High end PI has already rocketed, speculation over.


High end PI still needs lower end PI to be made and who knows which of these areas are going to be a bottleneck in regards to production. We still don't know exactly what PI is going to be needed on the blueprints for citadels.

Also, as Gilbaron mentioned;

Quote:
some of the material requirements for salvage are complete bonkers.

it's good to see some of the lesser used (T1) salvage being relevant for citadels (and i certainly made my investments there)

however, most of the T2 variants simply aren't available in the required quantities.

i expect to see some changes there.


We've already seen the speculation spike on salvage materials and the prices come back down, however I do not believe the amount that is going to be in demand has quite settled into either the trading community and or manufacturing community as much as it should.

We will see how it all plays out..

-Am
Hemmo Paskiainen
#12 - 2015-11-06 12:32:37 UTC
After 1.5 years from now:
Salvage +15%
Blue salvage +25%
PI +35%

PI will crash back soon. Outpost construction has come to a complete stop and if ppl are smart they are starting to hamster their PI for the next speccing round: Initial build wave PI shortage.

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?
Ammri
Solar Sanctum
#13 - 2015-11-15 16:46:53 UTC
Heavy water has taken quite the rise in the last week.
Gadolf Agalder
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#14 - 2015-11-15 17:51:49 UTC
The only verifiable info I got on this so far are the EVE Vegas videos or video.