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Cost of Skill Points if They Could be Bought

Author
Maximus Decentarian
S0utherN Comfort
#1 - 2015-10-16 16:48:17 UTC
This post is not to debate whether or not CCP should allow the trading of skill points based on the current blog. This is a question about the theoretical cost on the market for these skill point packets. I was thinking about this from the point of making SP Farming Characters.

Also, yes there will be spelling and grammar mistakes. I am at work dodging my boss to type this, so please cut me some slack :).

A few notes on my assumptions:
1. I am not counting or considering market demand or supply. I am looking only at the "Costs to make" these packets, so no profit margins here.
2. I am doing my best to only consider the best normal conditions.
a. No Plex Sales but current Plex offers are the same.
b. 1 Plex equals 3,500 Aurum (I think this is still true but was the last confirmed number I could find)
c. I am not taking startup costs/time such as training a fresh alt to buy and use +5 implants.
d. What I imagine a Skill farmer to look like is maxed attributes to allow 2700 SP/HR. The toon trains a skill at full speed. Then you extract the 500,000 SP but keep training the same skill.

3. Some other assumptions regarding the value of items are as follows:
a. Buying Aurum is a better deal than buying Plex to convert. Based on the information on CCP's site, it is a better deal to buy 21200 Aurum for $100 than any of the Plex deals (212 aurum per $ compared to about 200 through Plex)
b. While it is techincally cheaper to actually subscribe a toon for 1 year than buy 12 plex, I will only be looking at it through the eyes of a person buying plex and not subscribing.
c. 1 Plex is equal to $17.50


Okay, so let's start with the basics:

1 Skill Point Packet = Cost of the Extractor (Aurum) + Gametime Cost to produce the Skill Points (Will use Plex here)

1 isk = Cost of Plex in $ / Cost of Plex in Isk


Cost of the Extractor: We do not know the number of Aurum required yet, so we will use a fake number for now. I will use 900 aurum as that is $5. We will also assume Plex is 1.3 billion for this example 1 isk is equal to $1.3458*10^-8

900 Aurum is equal to $4.248 (equal to the 50 or 100 dollar Aurum deal)

This would give us an extractor cost of $316 million Isk


Gametime cost to produce Skill Points: Again, let us assume a person purchases plex with $ and did so using either the 6 or 12 plex options (they have the same cost per plex of $17.50)

At these costs, a max SP/HR toon would generate about 1,944,000 SP/Month. This is equal to about 3.89 Extractors worth of SP.

This would mean that at 17.50 per plex, each extractor has a $ value of about $4.45. using the same $/isk conversion rate, we get an isk cost per extractor of 334,362,000 isk.


In the end, we add those two numbers and get a base cost of an extractor of $650 million isk. This does not consider diminishing returns on a higher sp player or supply and demand. Also, the number can swing wildly depending on the amount of Aurum per Extractor required.

When I first started this I did not think the plex market would be affected by this change, but once I dove in and saw that plex price is what is the driving force behind the $ to isk conversion rate, I realized I was wrong.

Anyone have any thought on the basis of this example? I know the math may not be 100% accruate, but it would seem CCP have added another use for Plex that would impact the market.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#2 - 2015-10-16 17:39:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
It depends on how much Aurum would be required to purchase 1 extractor. If it costs 875 AUR/extractor, the minimum expected price of a skill packet would be 52% of PLEX price. 100 AUR/extractor would give you 29% PLEX price per packet and so on. Note that at these prices, you make no profit whatsoever, so realistically they'd be higher. Diminishing returns for older characters don't count towards price, since it costs 500,000 SP to produce one packet, regardless of who uses it.

PS: Bonus prediction: Power of two promotion would disappear never to be seen again. Endless fun would be had at the expense of Skillpoints I Train Are Free crowd.
Maximus Decentarian
S0utherN Comfort
#3 - 2015-10-16 17:53:23 UTC
Ria Nieyli wrote:
It depends on how much Aurum would be required to purchase 1 extractor. If it costs 875 AUR/extractor, the minimum expected price of a skill packet would be 52% of PLEX price. 100 AUR/extractor would give you 29% PLEX price per packet and so on. Note that at these prices, you make no profit whatsoever, so realistically they'd be higher. Diminishing returns for older characters don't count towards price, since it costs 500,000 SP to produce one packet, regardless of who uses it.


yes I would agree that the aur price will be a big influence, so that is why I had to input a dummy figure of 900.

As for the diminishing returns, I also agree. I should have been more clear that what I meant by that was that diminishing returns would affect demand and not the price itself.
Abla Tive
#4 - 2015-10-17 03:35:19 UTC
You can get a lower bound on how much the extractor will cost by comparing the cost of skill points on the character bazaar (about 2 M sp per billion isk) to the cost of the packets.

Since CCP won't wreck the bazaar, the cost of the extractors will be high enough to not undercut .

Since the packets are considerably more flexible than the bazaar, they will have to be significantly pricier.
MonkeyBusiness Thiesant
Pandemic Unicorns
#5 - 2015-10-17 16:24:55 UTC
Abla Tive wrote:
Since CCP won't wreck the bazaar, the cost of the extractors will be high enough to not undercut .


Is there perhaps a chance CCP want to just remove the bazaar? It's quite a hassle for them to administer, and they may just fancy removing it and replacing with a sp<>isk market.
Tom Hagen
Twilight Empire
#6 - 2015-10-17 21:17:43 UTC
Sorry for not doing the math myself, but I am just not that interested :-P

If I remember correctly the ISK/SP cost was somewhat consistent a couple of years ago in the Char Bazaar.
Woulden't that give us an idea of what people are ready to pay for SP today?

My guess is CCP would rather have people using this service that would hopefully generate a lot less administration on their part, in that case it should be in their own intrest to be competitive. Unless they shut down the bazaar to force all the players in to the market ofc.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#7 - 2015-10-17 23:18:26 UTC
To make the new system remotely competitive to high SP characters on the Character Bazaar they would need to do a 180 and remove the diminishing returns.
Adunh Slavy
#8 - 2015-10-21 02:21:00 UTC
Maximus Decentarian wrote:


A few notes on my assumptions:
1. I am not counting or considering market demand or supply.


Any conclusions, that follow such an assumption, will be absolute nonsense.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt