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Why Mex is spiking - my thoughts
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Derp Durrr
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2015-09-21 21:02:31 UTC
Hi all,
So you've probably seen the thread about mexallon and the scepticism surrounding it. I actually dont think its strange at all.
Think about it, cap rebalance is about to be announced. If that's positive at all, we'll probably see uite a few people resubbing their capital accounts (plex anyone?) and quite some capital ship demand along with it. With mex being quite the cap ship bottleneck, prices are bound to go up in case of a positive rebalance.
But thats not all.
Citadels are about ro be introduced. If I understand correctly these will probably be priced from below outpost prices all the way up to titan prices (this info is not factual yet, just a speculation based on the dev blogs amd the roles these structures will fulfill). Obviously these structures are going to be in very high demand for every corp, alliance, 1 man gang and their grandma's along with it. Chances are high these structures will require minerals for a big part of their production (exact quantities unknown right now but probably in line with all other products in eve). And once again, I expect one of the bottlenecks to be mexallon.

Obviously some others feel the same way, considering the price surge of late. So keep this in mind when you look at mex prices. Not saying they will stabillize at crazy regions. But I do expect a bubble of some sorts. My 2 cents.

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Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#2 - 2015-09-22 05:45:25 UTC
There are a massive oversupply of capital and supercapital already built hulls. Demand for rebalanced capitals would have to be comparable to Apex Force days or even higher before mass production of caps makes sense.

I'm not surprised that these changes have brought mex out of the 36-44 range, but *even assuming cap/super demand is equal to Apex Force days* the supply is higher for the same demand as a period when it was stable around 54.

I can see Mex stabilizing at 46 or 48, but 59 is a bubble waiting to burst.

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nrone casher
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#3 - 2015-09-23 06:44:34 UTC
Post EVE Vegas Mex will be 65-70
Derp Durrr
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2015-09-23 19:49:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Derp Durrr
Sabriz,
I think you are underestimating the impact these upcoming changes/features will have on the mineral market. Capitals have been slumping for a long time, building caps has not been a sensible thing to do for a while now (indeed, oversupply etc). but if any of these changes will make any sense at all, we'll see a quick and dirty price bump where we, the marketeers/scum of the universe buy stock and ride the hypetrain. in this same burst we will see people switching to building caps (even if only for a moment) since prices will be profitable again to work with.
Also, you haven't said anything about Citadels. these structures will probably be expensive and with the ability to dock supers in the XL variant, we'll see more people willing to try this class of ship since it will greatly reduce the feeling of flying a coffin. I predict every midsize corp and up will try to get their hands on a citadel.
So to sum it up:
* Capship rebalance leads to production if the changes are well received
* Citadels will make it easier for people to try supers, increasing demand
* Citadels will be expensive and popular since they are gamechangers for just about everyone in lowsec and below, at least every super owner will want one.

meanwhile,
Mex is about to hit 61. bubble or not, those who have been sceptic at the price when we were at 55 are clearly missing out.

EDIT - 61 passed Bear

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nrone casher
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#5 - 2015-09-29 16:02:12 UTC
Now that Mex is at 65, do you still believe that this was a fluke ?
Derp Durrr
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2015-09-29 16:56:02 UTC
Almost forgot,
Battlecruisers also influenced this price jump. everyone has been pumping out BC's in the weeks leading towards today's patch. tier3's all over again :-) historically speaking, mex at 70 is not such a bizarre thought...

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Derp Durrr
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2015-10-01 09:14:35 UTC
and we're at 77 now.
Bubble or not, the sceptics have lost this one.

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Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#8 - 2015-10-01 10:20:40 UTC
There may be time to make ISK out of this spike but I'm not touching the market at all.

I don't even have enough confidence in the present price to seize the regional arbitrage opportunities that exist.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com