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Plex hits 1b ISK in Jita

First post
Author
Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#561 - 2015-09-21 02:29:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Tyberius Franklin
Teckos Pech wrote:
You are assuming that there is some sort of decreasing return to having more ISK. If I can take $20 and get 1 billion ISK now, and tomorrow I can take the same $20 and get 2 billion ISK...I'd only spend $10? I was willing to part with $20 and get 1 billion. If 2 billion is even better...WTF, I'll still part with $20 and take the 2 billion.
You are correct, I am making that assumption, but I don't believe it's being done unreasonably. It's a question of how PLEX are being used by those that buy them from CCP. Are they doing so with a particular in game isk goal in mind or are they dictated purely by IRL budget?

If the latter than a price change creates a strong differentiation, if the former than the primary determinant for PLEX bought is isk need/in gamePLEX price. I tend to think it's the latter due to the continued upward trend in PLEX price. The isk return on PLEX doesn't seem to stabilize long term hinting that the simple $:isk relationship is driving it.

Alternatively if budget is the greater determination that means that our elasticity would still result in a neutral result. The customer spending x still spends x, providing no benefit for CCP, and we hope that the $:isk relationship proves to be strong enough to get a different group of customers to start spending. But that seems odd as, like stated above, that carrot isn't exactly working as hoped.

This becomes especially problematic because, if it works, it eliminates the same impetus to buy that the price drop created, possibly damaging long term revenue.

Aaron wrote:
Also account for the fact that if the in game price for plex is lowered for any reason then you'd get more people buying so ecventualy CCP would go back to making the same money.
Would you? I wonder if, since PLEX serves to fulfill a secondary need by those that buy them from CCP, that if that need gets met the room for more sales gets behaviorally capped. If I spend 2 bill isk a month and fund that via PLEX will I suddenly start spending 4bill per month if CCP halves PLEX prices? If I don't, when I get several times the amount I spend in the wallet or more will I keep spending on PLEX at the same rate?
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#562 - 2015-09-21 02:41:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Aaron wrote:
From my perspective if plex was £9.99, the plex trader dudes would buy 2 plex for £19.98, sell in game for 760m ( £1.00 = 76m isk) then I believe 1000's more would buy plex for the use of game time and CCP would end up with a similar income because of increased numbers.
Not going to happen, the guys who currently trade PLEX may well buy more, but they're unlikely to drop the price while there are still people willing to pay the current one. Even if casual traders get in and list it at 760M, the guys that are selling at 1.2B will probably snap them up enmasse and relist them, in that respect PLEX is no different from any other item that is sold via the market.

You're underestimating the lure of profit in both human nature and an economy such as Eve's. In Eve, just as in the real world, profit often comes before morality, empathy and charity.

Quote:
CCP need to take less from more people rather than more from less people. If they can get into a position to do this they have won.
What you, in your considered opinion, mean is that CCP has to risk the future of their flagship product, and the company, by potentially cutting part of their main source of revenue, in the hope of attracting both returning accounts and new players. Thank Bob you're not in charge.

Some of the former group are unsubbed multiboxing accounts, they're unlikely to return unless CCP reverses the input broadcasting ban, which is unlikely. Others in the former group have left for gameplay reasons that aren't PLEX prices, they too are unlikely to return. Those accounts that do return are the ones that would have returned eventually anyway, Eve has a nasty habit of dragging some people back into the meatgrinder.

The latter group, new players, already has a poor retention rate. That poor retention rate is due to many reasons; the nature of the game, prior expectations from other MMO's, misinformation from those that delight in urinating in the newbie pool, etc, etc. Very few of them are put off by PLEX prices, few of them know what it is and for most of them it's an unattainable goal for a few months, even priced at 200-250M as it was when I started the game.

So where is this more coming from?

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Aaron
Eternal Frontier
#563 - 2015-09-21 03:12:15 UTC
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
You are assuming that there is some sort of decreasing return to having more ISK. If I can take $20 and get 1 billion ISK now, and tomorrow I can take the same $20 and get 2 billion ISK...I'd only spend $10? I was willing to part with $20 and get 1 billion. If 2 billion is even better...WTF, I'll still part with $20 and take the 2 billion.
You are correct, I am making that assumption, but I don't believe it's being done unreasonably. It's a question of how PLEX are being used by those that buy them from CCP. Are they doing so with a particular in game isk goal in mind or are they dictated purely by IRL budget?

If the latter than a price change creates a strong differentiation, if the former than the primary determinant for PLEX bought is isk need/in gamePLEX price. I tend to think it's the latter due to the continued upward trend in PLEX price. The isk return on PLEX doesn't seem to stabilize long term hinting that the simple $:isk relationship is driving it.

Alternatively if budget is the greater determination that means that our elasticity would still result in a neutral result. The customer spending x still spends x, providing no benefit for CCP, and we hope that the $:isk relationship proves to be strong enough to get a different group of customers to start spending. But that seems odd as, like stated above, that carrot isn't exactly working as hoped.

This becomes especially problematic because, if it works, it eliminates the same impetus to buy that the price drop created, possibly damaging long term revenue.

Aaron wrote:
Also account for the fact that if the in game price for plex is lowered for any reason then you'd get more people buying so ecventualy CCP would go back to making the same money.
Would you? I wonder if, since PLEX serves to fulfill a secondary need by those that buy them from CCP, that if that need gets met the room for more sales gets behaviorally capped. If I spend 2 bill isk a month and fund that via PLEX will I suddenly start spending 4bill per month if CCP halves PLEX prices? If I don't, when I get several times the amount I spend in the wallet or more will I keep spending on PLEX at the same rate?


I strongly believe the UK's £ to isk is approx 76m to 80m which is in line with the current price of 1.3b, If the price is reduced from £16.99 to £12.00 then perhaps CCP could do a long term deal where you get 2 plex for £20.00. If my scenario happens then over a month or two the isk price would go back down to 800m, the plex trader that wants 1.3b will have to pay a few pounds extra and get 2 plex to sell at 800m each.

Another way maybe for CCP to sell 3 types of plex, Aurum plex, Character plex, and the jewel Game time plex, all three can be traded in game for isk. If we can seperate the plex type we might then be able to see the true value of game time.

Fear no one, live life, be free, accept the truth, do not judge others, defend yourself, fight hard till the end, meditate on problems and be prosperous. Things to exist by. -- RAIN Arthie

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#564 - 2015-09-21 03:13:20 UTC
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
You are assuming that there is some sort of decreasing return to having more ISK. If I can take $20 and get 1 billion ISK now, and tomorrow I can take the same $20 and get 2 billion ISK...I'd only spend $10? I was willing to part with $20 and get 1 billion. If 2 billion is even better...WTF, I'll still part with $20 and take the 2 billion.
You are correct, I am making that assumption, but I don't believe it's being done unreasonably. It's a question of how PLEX are being used by those that buy them from CCP. Are they doing so with a particular in game isk goal in mind or are they dictated purely by IRL budget?

If the latter than a price change creates a strong differentiation, if the former than the primary determinant for PLEX bought is isk need/in gamePLEX price. I tend to think it's the latter due to the continued upward trend in PLEX price. The isk return on PLEX doesn't seem to stabilize long term hinting that the simple $:isk relationship is driving it.

Alternatively if budget is the greater determination that means that our elasticity would still result in a neutral result. The customer spending x still spends x, providing no benefit for CCP, and we hope that the $:isk relationship proves to be strong enough to get a different group of customers to start spending. But that seems odd as, like stated above, that carrot isn't exactly working as hoped.

This becomes especially problematic because, if it works, it eliminates the same impetus to buy that the price drop created, possibly damaging long term revenue.

Aaron wrote:
Also account for the fact that if the in game price for plex is lowered for any reason then you'd get more people buying so ecventualy CCP would go back to making the same money.
Would you? I wonder if, since PLEX serves to fulfill a secondary need by those that buy them from CCP, that if that need gets met the room for more sales gets behaviorally capped. If I spend 2 bill isk a month and fund that via PLEX will I suddenly start spending 4bill per month if CCP halves PLEX prices? If I don't, when I get several times the amount I spend in the wallet or more will I keep spending on PLEX at the same rate?


Depends doesn't it. If I'm using PLEX to fund a character purchase, then getting 2 billion for the same $ amount is a huge plus. If I just need a billion, yeah I might drop to $10...then again, have an extra billion as buffer...so maybe not.

It is like saying one can have too much money. If I offer you $10 million or $100 million which will you choose? If it is $100 million when $10 million will let you live a life of luxury and ease till you die and even pass on a nice inheritance to any children...I think you can see why that assumption might be flawed or not as strong as you think.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#565 - 2015-09-21 03:14:52 UTC
These claims of "lowering the price would lead to more people doing X" need to provide at least some reasonable data that the price of whatever they are talking about has a price elasticity of demand in excess of 1. Failing that, then no.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Aaron
Eternal Frontier
#566 - 2015-09-21 03:21:49 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
These claims of "lowering the price would lead to more people doing X" need to provide at least some reasonable data that the price of whatever they are talking about has a price elasticity of demand in excess of 1. Failing that, then no.


The people saying that RL plex price affects the in game isk cost only have "I'm leaving cos plex too high" posts, and market numbers and trends relating to plex supply and demand. Also it is quite obvious that the RL cost of plex must be a factor in the cost of it in game, It's the only variable that links the real world and virtual world of Eve therefore it must be taken into account.

Fear no one, live life, be free, accept the truth, do not judge others, defend yourself, fight hard till the end, meditate on problems and be prosperous. Things to exist by. -- RAIN Arthie

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#567 - 2015-09-21 03:27:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Aaron wrote:
I strongly believe the UK's £ to isk is approx 76m to 80m which is in line with the current price of 1.3b, If the price is reduced from £16.99 to £12.00 then perhaps CCP could do a long term deal where you get 2 plex for £20.00. If my scenario happens then over a month or two the isk price would go back down to 800m
You've yet to explain why you believe this, you assume much and know little.

Quote:
the plex trader that wants 1.3b will have to pay a few pounds extra and get 2 plex to sell at 800m each.
Nope, he'll sell them for the maximum amount of isk that somebody is willing to pay for them. PLEX sells at 1.2B, it'll probably sell at 1.5B, 1.7B and 2B too.

Quote:
Another way maybe for CCP to sell 3 types of plex, Aurum plex, Character plex, and the jewel Game time plex, all three can be traded in game for isk. If we can seperate the plex type we might then be able to see the true value of game time.
We already have 3 effective currencies in Eve, 4 if you include trust, we don't need pointless complications like 2 more types of PLEX thrown into the mix.

Quote:
The people saying that RL plex price affects the in game isk cost only have "I'm leaving cos plex too high" posts, and market numbers and trends relating to plex supply and demand. Also it is quite obvious that the RL cost of plex must be a factor in the cost of it in game, It's the only variable that links the real world and virtual world of Eve therefore it must be taken into account.
No we don't, because a subscription is cheaper; if you can't afford to sub your account with RL cash you certainly can't afford PLEX with RL cash and playing Eve is the least of the things that should concern you.

Exchanging a purchased PLEX for isk is a shortcut, it bypasses the ingame gathering of wealth; it is a luxury item, as such it commands a premium price.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#568 - 2015-09-21 03:41:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Aaron wrote:
So generally I am saying if plex is cheaper in the real world more of it will be brought, if theres more of it that generally means cheaper isk prices, and if the plex is cheaper in game we will have the 5 account guy back, and the corp that helps people boost standings can make a comeback resulting in more people in game and better prospects for the economy.

I feel strongly that this is an accurate assessment.
Again, there is nothing to suggest that anything of the kind will happen.

You are assuming that people designate a specific amount of money they will spend on PLEX, rather than that they buy as many PLEX as they need to acquire a specific amount of ISK — that the decision hinges entirely on what you pay rather than what you get in return.

You are also assuming that the buyers are interested in putting as much as they can into the market, pushing the prices down, rather than offering the least amount needed to get the ISK they're after and just keep the price up. Again, the assumption is that the actual return is of a much lesser interest.

You are effectively assuming a very irrational behaviour on the part of the PLEX buyer. You're going to need a lot of evidence and reasoning to support all of these assumptions, and since the very start, you've offered the sum total of none.

Quote:
Also it is quite obvious that the RL cost of plex must be a factor in the cost of it in game, It's the only variable that links the real world and virtual world of Eve therefore it must be taken into account.
…except that, as mentioned, it is not the only variable, and there is very little to suggest that the two costs are linked. So no, it is not even remotely obvious.
Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#569 - 2015-09-21 03:53:18 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Depends doesn't it. If I'm using PLEX to fund a character purchase, then getting 2 billion for the same $ amount is a huge plus. If I just need a billion, yeah I might drop to $10...then again, have an extra billion as buffer...so maybe not.

It is like saying one can have too much money. If I offer you $10 million or $100 million which will you choose? If it is $100 million when $10 million will let you live a life of luxury and ease till you die and even pass on a nice inheritance to any children...I think you can see why that assumption might be flawed or not as strong as you think.

For a buffer, I can see it. The issue becomes needing people to do so in order to maintain revenue.

That also relates to why the argument of "do you want 10m or 100m" doesn't draw a fair comparison. This isn't a gift, I have to give something for the 10m and 10x that for 100m. The question becomes how valuable is that "something" and what use is the money being gained. For IRL currency the value is quite high, in game it's not remotely comparable though, especially against IRL currency. So we can probably assume some elasticity should plex prices drop, and with it some in game relief for PLEX prices.

The issue is that unless the elasticity <= -1, it loses CCP potential revenue. There may be some workings long term to counteract this possibly (IE: Lower PLEX > more active accounts > more going on in game > more subs being drawn in > more PLEX purchases) but I don't have any data to lean either way. I'm just not convinced lowering prices is the silver bullet suggestion.
hellokittyonline
Hellokitty's Online Adventure
#570 - 2015-09-21 04:08:09 UTC
Remove incursions. Raw isk is no longer being dropped into everyone's wallet. Isk is worth more. Plex prices drop. Missions are completed, markets are formed, loot and salvage is stolen and most importantly; Content is created.
Hasikan Miallok
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#571 - 2015-09-21 04:13:29 UTC
I see the cheaper PLEX issue this way.

If cars were suddenly half price, how many people would suddenly decide to buy two instead of one.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#572 - 2015-09-21 04:16:56 UTC
hellokittyonline wrote:
Remove incursions. Raw isk is no longer being dropped into everyone's wallet. Isk is worth more. Plex prices drop. Missions are completed, markets are formed, loot and salvage is stolen and most importantly; Content is created.


Rat bounties are about 3x as large as incursions. And it is not clear that even eliminating incursions will have that effect. It might...or it might not.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

ISD Decoy
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#573 - 2015-09-21 04:47:50 UTC
I have removed a post and one quoting it that lacks sensitivity to certain people within our player base. If you cannot be respectful of others, and can't put others' plight into context, please don't post.

Quote:
2. Be respectful toward others at all times.

The purpose of the EVE Online forums is to provide a platform for exchange of ideas, and a venue for the discussion of EVE Online. Occasionally there will be conflicts that arise when people voice opinions. Forum users are expected to be courteous when disagreeing with others.

ISD Decoy

Captain

Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)

Interstellar Services Department

Aaron
Eternal Frontier
#574 - 2015-09-21 04:50:05 UTC
Hasikan Miallok wrote:
I see the cheaper PLEX issue this way.

If cars were suddenly half price, how many people would suddenly decide to buy two instead of one.


It depends on the need I suppose, if RL cost is reduced and isk plex price is lowered as a result the need for more plex would be required to achieve the desired isk amount.

Fear no one, live life, be free, accept the truth, do not judge others, defend yourself, fight hard till the end, meditate on problems and be prosperous. Things to exist by. -- RAIN Arthie

Aaron
Eternal Frontier
#575 - 2015-09-21 05:00:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Aaron
ISD Decoy wrote:
I have removed a post and one quoting it that lacks sensitivity to certain people within our player base. If you cannot be respectful of others, and can't put others' plight into context, please don't post.



This is part of what I am saying, I know the post he is referring to and I am in full agreement with Decoy here. We have got to be able to consider the plight of others and understand it in order to move forward. I am happy that CCP seems to support this ethos.

It is unwise to discriminate against people for not having the means to pay a sub, this will only serve to feed the elitists and capitalists among us who try to shape the game to their liking with unsympathetic market practices and attitudes with regard to plex.

Plex for game time is a hot topic.

Fear no one, live life, be free, accept the truth, do not judge others, defend yourself, fight hard till the end, meditate on problems and be prosperous. Things to exist by. -- RAIN Arthie

Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#576 - 2015-09-21 06:49:05 UTC
ISD Decoy wrote:
I have removed a post and one quoting it that lacks sensitivity to certain people within our player base. If you cannot be respectful of others, and can't put others' plight into context, please don't post.

Quote:
2. Be respectful toward others at all times.

The purpose of the EVE Online forums is to provide a platform for exchange of ideas, and a venue for the discussion of EVE Online. Occasionally there will be conflicts that arise when people voice opinions. Forum users are expected to be courteous when disagreeing with others.


ISD Decoy, I'm struggling to put that hairdo into context. Please help.
Divine Entervention
Doomheim
#577 - 2015-09-21 08:19:22 UTC
conan o'brien
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#578 - 2015-09-21 08:26:24 UTC
Divine Entervention wrote:
conan o'brien



Exactly!

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Salvos Rhoska
#579 - 2015-09-21 08:41:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Aaron wrote:
It is unwise to discriminate against people for not having the means to pay a sub, this will only serve to feed the elitists and capitalists among us who try to shape the game to their liking with unsympathetic market practices and attitudes with regard to plex.

You, or anyone else, can donate as much isk, PLEX or RLM as you want.

I recommend you set up, for example, a Twitch channel as a venue for it.

In it, viewers with not enough expendable income inorder to play can petition your sympathy, and that of other viewers, for support of their gaming hobby.

You can also accept isk/PLEX/RLM donations which go towards a pool for support grants to these dispriviliged players who cannot afford to play the game, so as to make it available to them too.

This would fight against discrimination of people who do not have the means to sub, counter elitists and capitalists, and shape the game more to what you would like it, as a form of sympathetic market practice and attitude.

Constitutes a quite interesting meta and, who knows, might be a huge roaring success!
Deck Cadelanne
CAStabouts
#580 - 2015-09-21 09:50:48 UTC
I'm not an economist, I've been having a real head-scratch about this for a while, mostly because I really like this game and want to see it (and CCP) thrive, prosper and grow...so here goes...

For PLEX to work as a game mechanic, two things need to be true:

1. The in-game price of PLEX needs to be low enough for it to be a viable way for the more hard-corps players to use it as a means to pay for their play time.

2. The in-game price of PLEX needs to be high enough for it to be worth it for players willing to spend RL cash to obtain in-game wealth.

This does seem to imply a third requirement:

3. The game has to offer incentives (=entertainment value) that makes both PLEX consumers and PLEX suppliers *want* to participate in said transactions

It seems to me that the real heart of the problem is one of content:

4. Banning input multiplexing effectively removed many thousands of accounts from the game...but this should have decreased demand and in-game price, the rising price means other factors are at play

5. The new player retention barrier is as high as ever so replacing those lost accounts is impossible without fixing NPE.

6. There appears to be no in-game content driver...shiny new ship class (sorry T3 dessies don't quite cut it) or something like that...to incentivise the PLEX suppliers to spend RL cash to go after right now.

My theory, at the moment, is that the remedy to the current malaise has to be something along the lines of a serious overhaul of NPE + something seriously "flashy" from a marketing perspective to both attract new players and help them be "sticky" and re-energize the veterans and get them more engaged in the game.

With Drifters, sov overhaul, (citadels + revamped purpose for supercaps), etc. suggests the stage is potentially being set for some of that to happen. I hope it is.



"When the going gets weird, the weird turn professional."

- Hunter S. Thompson