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Plex hits 1b ISK in Jita

First post
Author
Zihao
Doomheim
#541 - 2015-09-21 01:00:15 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

Apparently the things that you cannot afford are "not available".
They just magically disappear because you aren't paying for them.


So when amazon.com has an item listed as "currently unavailable," your conclusion would be that no such item exists in the world at that moment in time?
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#542 - 2015-09-21 01:00:19 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Apparently paying for a service or a commodity is considered a "privilege".
Correct. If it was a right, you wouldn't have to pay for it.

Quote:
Ergo, apparently getting paid for your service and work, is also a "privilege".
Does not follow.

Quote:
Apparently the things that you cannot afford are "not available".
Correct.

Quote:
They just magically disappear because you aren't paying for them.
Does not follow. They just aren't available to you. There's a difference. Just because you'll die if you try to free-dive to the bottom of the Marina Trench does not mean the bottom has ceased to exist — it just means the bottom is not available to you.

Quote:
Have it your way. I'll have it mine.
Thank you. I prefer to stay consistent with language and reality, even if you do not.
Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#543 - 2015-09-21 01:00:48 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Apparently the things that you cannot afford are "not available".
They just magically disappear because you aren't paying for them.
What does this even mean? Even your own racial distinction for privilege doesn't just have a commodity "magically disappear" for those who don't have it. Do you think that if a law was passed saying only white people could use boats I'd lose the ability to see boats? Is that what you think the status of a privilege does?
Hasikan Miallok
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#544 - 2015-09-21 01:03:01 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:


This would likely also help the in game price. If the RL price dropped more players might buy PLEX for sale in game. Eventually a new equilibrium would be reached, but the point is the in game price would drop as well.



Dropping PLEX prices is not going to help.

If the actual issue is some people (incapacitated and cannot work, live in a very poor country with bad exchange rate to US Dollar) cannot afford to play the real solution is drop the price of subs not the price of PLEX.
Zihao
Doomheim
#545 - 2015-09-21 01:06:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Zihao
Hasikan Miallok wrote:
The UN regards the argument that the laws apply equally to all as specious and irrelevant to the actual situation.


Never fear world-citizen. The honorable Saudis have been put in charge of the UN council on human rights. I am confident they will get to the bottom of this injustice.

Hasikan Miallok wrote:

Dropping PLEX prices is not going to help.

If the actual issue is some people (incapacitated and cannot work, live in a very poor country with bad exchange rate to US Dollar) cannot afford to play the real solution is drop the price of subs not the price of PLEX.


That implies CCP can afford to run their servers and pay their employees with a reduced income. I don't know if they can or cannot do so, but I certainly wouldn't take that position for granted.
Salvos Rhoska
#546 - 2015-09-21 01:10:56 UTC
I will not take part in discussion that posits paying for a service/commodity constitutes a "privilege".

This extent of "check your privilege" is going too far for me and against my own ethics.

Discuss it with each other if you wish, Im out.

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#547 - 2015-09-21 01:11:12 UTC
Vincent Athena wrote:
In economic theory there is something called Giffen good (good, as in "goods and services"). These are goods which have a reversed supply-demand curve. That is, an increase in price results in a decrease in supply.


Absolutely and totally wrong. In economic theory a Giffen good is a good where the demand/price relationship reverses. That is normally as the price increases for a good the quantity demanded decreases (ceterius paribus).

Further, to date, there has been no definitive example of a Giffen good.

We do not need to invoke Giffen goods to explain PLEX prices. Not at all. Nor do we need to invoke maniuplation, speculation or any other stupid ideas.

Here is a story that can explain the price of PLEX with nothing other than simple supply and demand analysis.

We have fewer players buying PLEX to sell in game it leads to this picture. Basically, the demand schedule shifts inwards resulting in a lower number of PLEX (Q2 < Q3).

Then the effect in game is depicted in this picture. Note that we get a lower quantity and a higher price as the supply schedule shifts inwards. Wow!!! Must be speculation or a clever plan of the underpants gnomes. Roll

Then we have skins in game which you can obtain with PLEX, which leads to this picture. In this case, the demand schedule has shifted outwards and it increases both the price and the quantity demanded.

To be clear here...the price,quantity pairs go from (P1,Q1) to (P2,Q2) to (P3,Q3).

Note that the price of PLEX in the first graph is in U.S. dollars whereas in the second and third graphs the price is in ISK.

Remember, Ockham's razor....do not go for the complicated story when the simple story is more than sufficient

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Hasikan Miallok
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#548 - 2015-09-21 01:13:14 UTC
Zihao wrote:


That implies CCP can afford to run their servers and pay their employees with a reduced income. I don't know if they can or cannot do so, but I certainly wouldn't take that position for granted.


Unless the laffer curve applies to EVE subs in which case a reduced sub may increase income :D
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#549 - 2015-09-21 01:14:46 UTC
Hasikan Miallok wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


This would likely also help the in game price. If the RL price dropped more players might buy PLEX for sale in game. Eventually a new equilibrium would be reached, but the point is the in game price would drop as well.



Dropping PLEX prices is not going to help.

If the actual issue is some people (incapacitated and cannot work, live in a very poor country with bad exchange rate to US Dollar) cannot afford to play the real solution is drop the price of subs not the price of PLEX.


Whatever. Not my problem. I don't care who can or cannot pay the game or where they live or whatever. That is their problem. Or to be more blunt, I don't give a f**king ****. Trying to deal with RL inequality, exchange rates, and that sort of stuff via game subscription prices is just mental masturbation by dolts.

My point still stands, if CCP decrease the RL price of PLEX the in-game price will then decrease.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#550 - 2015-09-21 01:15:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Hasikan Miallok wrote:
Zihao wrote:


That implies CCP can afford to run their servers and pay their employees with a reduced income. I don't know if they can or cannot do so, but I certainly wouldn't take that position for granted.


Unless the laffer curve applies to EVE subs in which case a reduced sub may increase income :D


Do you even know what the Laffer curve applies too? Hint: Not MMO prices. Roll

Oh, and the Laffer curve (which is unfortunately named as economists knew about it well before Arthur Laffer drew the curve on a napkin) pertains to tax rates and tax revenues...not incomes.

So, you struck out twice. You are applying the wrong concept to MMO prices, and it applies to tax revenues not incomes.

Keep it up and soon we'll all think you don't WTF you are talking about (don't worry though, I already think that).

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#551 - 2015-09-21 01:18:06 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
My point still stands, if CCP decrease the RL price of PLEX the in-game price will then decrease.

To what degree? How much compulsion does $5 create to buy PLEX for those that aren't buying now?
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#552 - 2015-09-21 01:21:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
My point still stands, if CCP decrease the RL price of PLEX the in-game price will then decrease.

To what degree? How much compulsion does $5 create to buy PLEX for those that aren't buying now?


IDK, but if the price went from $19.95 to 14.95 and given the current in-game price of PLEX it would likely lead to higher purchases.

After all the implicit exchange rate would go from around 61.6 million ISK/dollar to 82.2 million IKS/dollar or about a 33% increase. If we had some sort of estimate of the price elasticity of demand for PLEX we could do the algebra.

Edit: For example, if the price elasticity of demand is -1 and the price changes by -27.6% (i.e. the price of PLEX went from $19.95 to $14.95) then the quantity would increase by 27.6%. What effect would that have in game? Well if the in game price elasticity of demand is also -1 then an increase in quantity by 27.6% would decrease the price by 27.6%. Or the price of PLEX would drop to about 890 million ISK.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#553 - 2015-09-21 01:43:01 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
My point still stands, if CCP decrease the RL price of PLEX the in-game price will then decrease.

To what degree? How much compulsion does $5 create to buy PLEX for those that aren't buying now?


IDK, but if the price went from $19.95 to 14.95 and given the current in-game price of PLEX it would likely lead to higher purchases.

After all the implicit exchange rate would go from around 61.6 million ISK/dollar to 82.2 million IKS/dollar or about a 33% increase. If we had some sort of estimate of the price elasticity of demand for PLEX we could do the algebra.

Edit: For example, if the price elasticity of demand is -1 and the price changes by -27.6% (i.e. the price of PLEX went from $19.95 to $14.95) then the quantity would increase by 27.6%. What effect would that have in game? Well if the in game price elasticity of demand is also -1 then an increase in quantity by 27.6% would decrease the price by 27.6%. Or the price of PLEX would drop to about 890 million ISK.
But would that drive more sales without increasing the need for isk in game? I'd be worried that the end effect is just less money in CCP's pockets as the actual need for isk isn't changed, only the ability to get that same isk cheaper.

Unless the change is sufficient to bring in new buyers to offset this I'm not sure the desired effect would occur.

Or is this being looked at as an individually budgeted amount per PLEX buyer that would maintain regardless of the number of PLEX obtained/$?
Aaron
Eternal Frontier
#554 - 2015-09-21 01:55:00 UTC
Hasikan Miallok wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


This would likely also help the in game price. If the RL price dropped more players might buy PLEX for sale in game. Eventually a new equilibrium would be reached, but the point is the in game price would drop as well.



Dropping PLEX prices is not going to help.

If the actual issue is some people (incapacitated and cannot work, live in a very poor country with bad exchange rate to US Dollar) cannot afford to play the real solution is drop the price of subs not the price of PLEX.


Ok, let us analyse what happens in real life. When everyone stops spending retail is the first to be affected we see businesses go under and thousands of jobs lost. In order to repair the economy so that people start spending again governments flood the economy with money in the hope that people will give it to these retail outlets so that they can provide jobs and not cease trading and hire staff so that the government can secure their employment taxes.

A similar thing is happennig in Eve, people are leaving because they find it difficult to plex 1 account. Reducing the RL cost of plex would have an effect because the plex trader will be able to buy more plex and put it on the market which would force the next man to match the lower price and so on.

So generally I am saying if plex is cheaper in the real world more of it will be brought, if theres more of it that generally means cheaper isk prices, and if the plex is cheaper in game we will have the 5 account guy back, and the corp that helps people boost standings can make a comeback resulting in more people in game and better prospects for the economy.

I feel strongly that this is an accurate assessment.

Fear no one, live life, be free, accept the truth, do not judge others, defend yourself, fight hard till the end, meditate on problems and be prosperous. Things to exist by. -- RAIN Arthie

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#555 - 2015-09-21 01:59:22 UTC
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
My point still stands, if CCP decrease the RL price of PLEX the in-game price will then decrease.

To what degree? How much compulsion does $5 create to buy PLEX for those that aren't buying now?


IDK, but if the price went from $19.95 to 14.95 and given the current in-game price of PLEX it would likely lead to higher purchases.

After all the implicit exchange rate would go from around 61.6 million ISK/dollar to 82.2 million IKS/dollar or about a 33% increase. If we had some sort of estimate of the price elasticity of demand for PLEX we could do the algebra.

Edit: For example, if the price elasticity of demand is -1 and the price changes by -27.6% (i.e. the price of PLEX went from $19.95 to $14.95) then the quantity would increase by 27.6%. What effect would that have in game? Well if the in game price elasticity of demand is also -1 then an increase in quantity by 27.6% would decrease the price by 27.6%. Or the price of PLEX would drop to about 890 million ISK.
But would that drive more sales without increasing the need for isk in game? I'd be worried that the end effect is just less money in CCP's pockets as the actual need for isk isn't changed, only the ability to get that same isk cheaper.

Unless the change is sufficient to bring in new buyers to offset this I'm not sure the desired effect would occur.

Or is this being looked at as an individually budgeted amount per PLEX buyer that would maintain regardless of the number of PLEX obtained/$?


There are alot of variables here so it is hard to say. For example, moving the price of PLEX from 19.95 to 14.95 would reduce the amount of money flowing into CCPs wallet IF the amount of PLEX bought does not increase. However, for that to happen we'd need a price elasticity to be zero. That is if the number of PLEX bought is X and the price changes and X is still bought...then decreasing the price wont change the in-game price either. But for CCP they should jack up the RL price, make it $100/PLEX and quintuple their revenues from PLEX. If you think that is not likely, then that says the price elasticity is probably not zero.

Basically, it all depends on the price elasticity. Is demand for PELX (in the RL market) inelastic or elastic? If it is elastic, the the price elasticity is somewhere in the range of (-1,-infinity). If it is -2, for example, and the price were reduced 15% then there would be a 30% increase in the quantity purchased. Since the increase in the amount purchased, exceeds the price decrease CCP would see a net gain. If the in-game price elasticity is say -1 then we'd see a 30% decrease in the in-game price.

But the only people who have the data on this is CCP and only they can say for sure. And price elasticity studies are not all that easy due to the issue of simultaneity in the data. You want to identify the demand curve which usually entails finding a variable to shift the supply curve which is problematic as CCP is a monopolist when it comes to PLEX--i.e. they have no supply curve for PLEX.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#556 - 2015-09-21 02:04:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Aaron wrote:
Hasikan Miallok wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


This would likely also help the in game price. If the RL price dropped more players might buy PLEX for sale in game. Eventually a new equilibrium would be reached, but the point is the in game price would drop as well.



Dropping PLEX prices is not going to help.

If the actual issue is some people (incapacitated and cannot work, live in a very poor country with bad exchange rate to US Dollar) cannot afford to play the real solution is drop the price of subs not the price of PLEX.


Ok, let us analyse what happens in real life. When everyone stops spending retail is the first to be affected we see businesses go under and thousands of jobs lost. In order to repair the economy so that people start spending again governments flood the economy with money in the hope that people will give it to these retail outlets so that they can provide jobs and not cease trading and hire staff so that the government can secure their employment taxes.

A similar thing is happennig in Eve, people are leaving because they find it difficult to plex 1 account. Reducing the RL cost of plex would have an effect because the plex trader will be able to buy more plex and put it on the market which would force the next man to match the lower price and so on.

So generally I am saying if plex is cheaper in the real world more of it will be brought, if theres more of it that generally means cheaper isk prices, and if the plex is cheaper in game we will have the 5 account guy back, and the corp that helps people boost standings can make a comeback resulting in more people in game and better prospects for the economy.

I feel strongly that this is an accurate assessment.



If you are trying to PLEX an account and you are finding that more and more of your time is needed to do that...then perhaps it is time to stop PLEXing and either switch over to RL money or if you cannot do that, then stop playing. The exchange rate between RL money and PLEX suggests that people are working for an implicit wage rate that is very, very low.

Dropping the RL price of PLEX will have a one time effect on the price of PLEX as well. See my previous posts on the price elasticities. For example, if the price elasticities both for the RL marke and in game are 1, we'd see PLEX prices in game drop to about 890 million ISK. However, that would not mean the price would have to stay there.

Further, if the price elasticity for PLEX in the RL market is inelastic then dropping the price is basically an income transfer from CCP to people who want to play the game, but do not want to pay with RL money. That probably is not a viable long term strategy either.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#557 - 2015-09-21 02:04:59 UTC
Aaron wrote:
Hasikan Miallok wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


This would likely also help the in game price. If the RL price dropped more players might buy PLEX for sale in game. Eventually a new equilibrium would be reached, but the point is the in game price would drop as well.



Dropping PLEX prices is not going to help.

If the actual issue is some people (incapacitated and cannot work, live in a very poor country with bad exchange rate to US Dollar) cannot afford to play the real solution is drop the price of subs not the price of PLEX.


Ok, let us analyse what happens in real life. When everyone stops spending retail is the first to be affected we see businesses go under and thousands of jobs lost. In order to repair the economy so that people start spending again governments flood the economy with money in the hope that people will give it to these retail outlets so that they can provide jobs and not cease trading and hire staff so that the government can secure their employment taxes.

A similar thing is happennig in Eve, people are leaving because they find it difficult to plex 1 account. Reducing the RL cost of plex would have an effect because the plex trader will be able to buy more plex and put it on the market which would force the next man to match the lower price and so on.

So generally I am saying if plex is cheaper in the real world more of it will be brought, if theres more of it that generally means cheaper isk prices, and if the plex is cheaper in game we will have the 5 account guy back, and the corp that helps people boost standings can make a comeback resulting in more people in game and better prospects for the economy.

I feel strongly that this is an accurate assessment.

There is a missing link in the logic for me. Why would PLEX buyers be putting more on the market? PLEX prices are high, so they need less PLEX to sell to reach any particular isk goal they have. If there is no impetus driving the need for more isk for people buying PLEX from CCP, even if the price is dropped, would they consistently buy more?

The out of game logic could work for causing those not buying PLEX already to reconsider as the comparison of time to earn isk in game vs cost of PLEX further continues to tilt in favor of PLEX, but at the same time the fact that that's not exactly working as desired is part of the reason for the current in game prices I'd imagine.
Zihao
Doomheim
#558 - 2015-09-21 02:06:35 UTC
Aaron wrote:

Ok, let us analyse what happens in real life. When everyone stops spending retail is the first to be affected we see businesses go under and thousands of jobs lost. In order to repair the economy so that people start spending again governments flood the economy with money in the hope that people will give it to these retail outlets so that they can provide jobs and not cease trading and hire staff so that the government can secure their employment taxes.


You do realize CCP can't deficit spend in perpetuity like a government, right?
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#559 - 2015-09-21 02:10:33 UTC
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Aaron wrote:
Hasikan Miallok wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


This would likely also help the in game price. If the RL price dropped more players might buy PLEX for sale in game. Eventually a new equilibrium would be reached, but the point is the in game price would drop as well.



Dropping PLEX prices is not going to help.

If the actual issue is some people (incapacitated and cannot work, live in a very poor country with bad exchange rate to US Dollar) cannot afford to play the real solution is drop the price of subs not the price of PLEX.


Ok, let us analyse what happens in real life. When everyone stops spending retail is the first to be affected we see businesses go under and thousands of jobs lost. In order to repair the economy so that people start spending again governments flood the economy with money in the hope that people will give it to these retail outlets so that they can provide jobs and not cease trading and hire staff so that the government can secure their employment taxes.

A similar thing is happennig in Eve, people are leaving because they find it difficult to plex 1 account. Reducing the RL cost of plex would have an effect because the plex trader will be able to buy more plex and put it on the market which would force the next man to match the lower price and so on.

So generally I am saying if plex is cheaper in the real world more of it will be brought, if theres more of it that generally means cheaper isk prices, and if the plex is cheaper in game we will have the 5 account guy back, and the corp that helps people boost standings can make a comeback resulting in more people in game and better prospects for the economy.

I feel strongly that this is an accurate assessment.

There is a missing link in the logic for me. Why would PLEX buyers be putting more on the market? PLEX prices are high, so they need less PLEX to sell to reach any particular isk goal they have. If there is no impetus driving the need for more isk for people buying PLEX from CCP, even if the price is dropped, would they consistently buy more?

The out of game logic could work for causing those not buying PLEX already to reconsider as the comparison of time to earn isk in game vs cost of PLEX further continues to tilt in favor of PLEX, but at the same time the fact that that's not exactly working as desired is part of the reason for the current in game prices I'd imagine.


You are assuming that there is some sort of decreasing return to having more ISK. If I can take $20 and get 1 billion ISK now, and tomorrow I can take the same $20 and get 2 billion ISK...I'd only spend $10? I was willing to part with $20 and get 1 billion. If 2 billion is even better...WTF, I'll still part with $20 and take the 2 billion.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Aaron
Eternal Frontier
#560 - 2015-09-21 02:13:09 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Tyberius Franklin wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
My point still stands, if CCP decrease the RL price of PLEX the in-game price will then decrease.

To what degree? How much compulsion does $5 create to buy PLEX for those that aren't buying now?


IDK, but if the price went from $19.95 to 14.95 and given the current in-game price of PLEX it would likely lead to higher purchases.

After all the implicit exchange rate would go from around 61.6 million ISK/dollar to 82.2 million IKS/dollar or about a 33% increase. If we had some sort of estimate of the price elasticity of demand for PLEX we could do the algebra.

Edit: For example, if the price elasticity of demand is -1 and the price changes by -27.6% (i.e. the price of PLEX went from $19.95 to $14.95) then the quantity would increase by 27.6%. What effect would that have in game? Well if the in game price elasticity of demand is also -1 then an increase in quantity by 27.6% would decrease the price by 27.6%. Or the price of PLEX would drop to about 890 million ISK.
But would that drive more sales without increasing the need for isk in game? I'd be worried that the end effect is just less money in CCP's pockets as the actual need for isk isn't changed, only the ability to get that same isk cheaper.

Unless the change is sufficient to bring in new buyers to offset this I'm not sure the desired effect would occur.

Or is this being looked at as an individually budgeted amount per PLEX buyer that would maintain regardless of the number of PLEX obtained/$?


There are alot of variables here so it is hard to say. For example, moving the price of PLEX from 19.95 to 14.95 would reduce the amount of money flowing into CCPs wallet IF the amount of PLEX bought does not increase.


Also account for the fact that if the in game price for plex is lowered for any reason then you'd get more people buying so ecventualy CCP would go back to making the same money.

From my perspective if plex was £9.99, the plex trader dudes would buy 2 plex for £19.98, sell in game for 760m ( £1.00 = 76m isk) then I believe 1000's more would buy plex for the use of game time and CCP would end up with a similar income because of increased numbers.

CCP need to take less from more people rather than more from less people. If they can get into a position to do this they have won.

Fear no one, live life, be free, accept the truth, do not judge others, defend yourself, fight hard till the end, meditate on problems and be prosperous. Things to exist by. -- RAIN Arthie