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Plex hits 1b ISK in Jita

First post
Author
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#381 - 2015-09-18 03:00:44 UTC
Pump and Dump
Pump and Dump
Pump and ....
PANIC!!!!
Salvos Rhoska
#382 - 2015-09-18 03:25:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Zihao wrote:
Circumstantial Evidence wrote:
According to my unscientific spot checks of eve-central, the # of plex for sale on market has been steadily increasing over the last 24-36h. From a low of around ~500, to the time of this post, around ~1000.


The plot thickens.


I have a vested interest in this (unfinancial, as I EAT all myPLEX), and have been encouraging people to liquidate all un-needed assets immediately and buy PLEX as soon and as cheap as they can.

My reasons for this are as follows:
-According to my assessment, the PLEX market has been manipulated by deliberate and concerted hoarding action since last fall, particularly in anticipation of the ISBox restraints.
-Thereafter occured several other strong factors (including PLEX sales, and a dramatic reduction in account activity) that rationally should have dropped PLEX price, but instead, it rose over and beyond these mitigants.
-Part of this escalation had been from incidental smaller PLEX traders picking up on the trend.

Now its ( already well past) time for the rest of the community to step in, especially for PLEX dependants, to insure their sub/investment future.

The reasons for this are as follows:
-The more PLEX that dependant players buy now, the longer they can remain in the game. If they wait, prices will escalate even further beyond their means. DO IT NOW. Prices will escalate whether you do so or not, so get it "cheap" while you can.
-Although its somewhat counterintuitive, as buying more PLEX raises the prices, especially if bought in a short period before refraction, it also squeezes the margins of whatever mass PLEX hoarders are currently operating, as more PLEX is consumed, rather than stockpiled.
-The more non-hoarders (ie: PLEX consumers) buy up and eat PLEX off the market, the more they reduce future demand, which again eats into the hoarders margins.
-The impetus here, as unavoidably (as benefit hopefully to people who need them and buy them NOW) unfortunate as immediste raised prices are, is that it brings the "bubbles" extreme closer to popping.
-The higher the price goes, the more likely it is CCP will somehow react, and the more likely dissent spreads to prompt that.
-We dont know how high the tolerance for isk/PLEX will go. Considering the amount of multihundredbillionaires who PLEX anything and everything, who will continue to buy PLEX even in the billions, the small operators need to get their value out of the market NOW. You cant compete with these guys once PLEX passes your meager income, which for them is incidental.

If you are PLEX dependant, sell everything you wont use/need for the next 6 months, and buy as much PLEX to eat as you can.
Do it NOW while its still relatively cheap. This will hopefully help you tide over and remain in the game till "something" happens, or you can reskill for more income, or find funds to sub. Atleast you will still be able to play.
lord xavier
Rubbed Out
#383 - 2015-09-18 03:28:23 UTC
A lot of people are converting their assets into plex. Have been for months. So... There is no surprise it keeps rising.
Glathull
Warlock Assassins
#384 - 2015-09-18 03:44:14 UTC
What's going to happen when PLEX hit 2 billion?

Is EvE going to die even moar???!!!

Oh no. Not really. I'll just keep buying them with real money and selling them for moar ISK.

Thank you to everyone who is supporting my play-style.

I honestly feel like I just read fifty shades of dumb. --CCP Falcon

Salvos Rhoska
#385 - 2015-09-18 03:48:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Aaron wrote:


Hmmm, looks like its the stockpiles of plex being put on the market by people wishing to cash out. Real traders have their eyes open and know they must sell. I could be wrong though, it may be more people buying plex and selling due to the higher isk price.

If its the latter then CCP just did £8,500.00 worth of trade in 36 hours. My money is on the former.

Circumstantial Evidence, good work.


Both conclusions would be stupid decisions by those parties.

"Real traders" can see that PLEX rise has no pending end in sight. They are not selling, they are buying.

As to figures of people importing PLEX, it no longer matters, because the majority of that imported PLEX is being bought up by Traders and stockpiled, not consumed, which therefore does not saturate the PLEX demand. Furthermore, PLEX consumers buy it sporadically, incidentally, as needed/afforded, whereas PLEX traders are always watching the market and situated to pick up the cheap.

When a CONSUMING player buys and EATS a PLEX, he is removed from demand for a month (as too is the PLEX from supply and the game).

When a hoarder buys and stockpiles a PLEX off the market, ITS VALUE APPRECIATES (as does that of the rest of his PLEX) and it does not reduce demand at all. Instead, it decreases supply.

A consumer decreases demand for a month (for himself), and supply by one unit when he eats it.
A trader indefinately decreases supply, and hence increases price by demand in a perpetually hungry market of not only consumers, but also other traders.

Its said that the average PLEX unit changes hands 3 times before being consumed.
I dont know from what years that is taken from, or for what exchanges primarily.
But this certainly highlights the preponderance of PLEX traders on the market.
You dont buy ships with PLEX. Either this is transitioning between a traders alts, or between traders on the market.
As to an average consumer, when they buy PLEX, it goes right from hand to mouth. Nom.
Salvos Rhoska
#386 - 2015-09-18 04:25:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Glathull wrote:
. I'll just keep buying them with real money and selling them for moar ISK.


Youd be better off waiting for higher isk prices before selling your PLEX.

I mean selling them now is kind of like selling off your Nokia shares in 1995, right before a 5x revenue...
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#387 - 2015-09-18 09:52:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Aaron wrote:
Tippia,

You've obviously not read the posts from plex users and understood what they have to go through to plex their accounts.
Irrelevant. None of your predictions are anything other than speculation, especially the consequences of halving an income source for CCP.

The fact of the matter is that you display a complete ignorance of how markets work, and ignorantly assigns a direct correlation between two parameters that are separated by half a dozen steps. Your premise is deeply flawed; your causal link is highly questionable; your conclusions are nonsensical. There are no two ways about it.

I understand that you want to pay less for PLEX. You have to come up with a far more coherent and cogent argument if you ever want that to happen. Right now, you have no argument — just wishful thinking based on a subjective reading of circumstantial evidence.
Aaron
Eternal Frontier
#388 - 2015-09-18 10:53:02 UTC
Still laughing at Salvos and Tippia's ignorance. LOLOLOLOLOL

I repeat for the 17th time, If the plex customer base vanishes then plex is worth little. It is important that you go back in this thread and read some of the posts from plex users. Also take the time to have a look at other threads where plex users have said similar things for a couple of months now.

Plex users have said they are having trouble plexing ALL of their accounts, plex sales have been lost.

The troll is obviously on me, and I've fallen for it.

Fear no one, live life, be free, accept the truth, do not judge others, defend yourself, fight hard till the end, meditate on problems and be prosperous. Things to exist by. -- RAIN Arthie

Captain Awkward
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#389 - 2015-09-18 11:45:21 UTC
Hm. PLEX is traided on the market like every other item in EvE is.

But PLEX is special because it can effect Sub numbers. Als long as prices are made by supply and demand everything is fine. But as soon as PLEX is used for speculation (and we all know it is) then we get into more dangerous territory.

I know I will be crucified for this but : CCP should limit the number of PLEX a single account can have at any given time. Any account currently sitting on massive amounts of plex should not be able to buy more, only sell untill they drop under the allowed threshold.

There are enough other items on the marked that you can ecco PvP with.

And im saying that as someone who has never used PLEX to sub.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#390 - 2015-09-18 11:51:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Aaron wrote:
Still laughing at Salvos and Tippia's ignorance.

So you still have no argument since you have been reduced to a complete reliance on fallacies to carry your non-case.

Quote:
I repeat for the 17th time
…stuff that has been dismissed 85 times.
You only have speculation. You have no valid evidence for any of your claims. You have no logical causal chain to tie your speculation together. As a result, you have no cogent conclusion. You only have a deep-seated wish to pay less for PLEX, and no way of articulating a cogent reason why your wish should come true. You have even gone so far as to report people who point out this lack of coherence in your argument.

Quote:
The troll is obviously on me, and I've fallen for it.
Close. You accidentally included the word “on”.
Skeln Thargensen
Doomheim
#391 - 2015-09-18 11:55:31 UTC
i'm looking at a 2000 day chart from eve central and it is looking a little bubbly right now.

i doubt the price will pull back much if it does crash though. too many starved microempires out there.

forums.  serious business.

Anne Dieu-le-veut
Natl Assn for the Advancement of Criminal People
#392 - 2015-09-18 12:09:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Anne Dieu-le-veut
Eli Apol wrote:
Anne Dieu-le-veut wrote:
Eli Apol wrote:
Anne Dieu-le-veut wrote:
I'm sure CCP is losing all kinds of sleep over freeloaders threatening to quit. It's like threatening to stop pirating cable if the cable company doesn't lower their prices.

WTF do you whiners honestly expect CCP to do? They're not going to put a hard cap on what people can charge. If they lowered the IRL price of PLEX, there is no guarantee people buying PLEX from CCP would sell them any cheaper. If PLEX are selling reasonably fast for 1.2B, there's no reason for sellers to lower the price.


You seem to forget that us freeloaders are part of the content they provide to their paying customers.


You make it sound like you're doing CCP a favor lol. You didn't answer the question...what do you want them to do about it?

I haven't whined about it since I'm still plexing my accounts fairly comfortably - therefore your question wasn't directed at me. I'm just pointing out how stupid your particular rubbishing of free players was without them just how much quieter would the game be?


How much quieter would the game be? I don't know and don't care. How many of those people even interact with other players?

This thread boils to people complaining about the price of a fake item bought with fake money...it doesn't get much more first world problems than that. IMO if the game isn't worth $15 (or less) a month to people, then don't play it.

Aaron wrote:

Plex users have said they are having trouble plexing ALL of their accounts, plex sales have been lost.




No, the PLEX are still being bought by people that have more ISK.
Harry Forever
SpaceJunkys
#393 - 2015-09-18 12:11:34 UTC
a titan should cost 200 eur max, therefore i predict plex at 10b within 5 years
Yang Aurilen
State War Academy
Caldari State
#394 - 2015-09-18 12:31:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Yang Aurilen
Harry Forever wrote:
a titan should cost 200 eur max, therefore i predict plex at 10b within 5 years


Doing some google math converting Euro to US$ then dividing the total cost with the cost of plex then multiplying it with the cost of plex ingame yields: 14,342,899,834.9. So you want a titan to cost as much as a super-carrier hull?

Post with your NPC alt main and not your main main alt!

Sipphakta en Gravonere
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#395 - 2015-09-18 16:02:39 UTC
Yang Aurilen wrote:
Harry Forever wrote:
a titan should cost 200 eur max, therefore i predict plex at 10b within 5 years


Doing some google math converting Euro to US$ then dividing the total cost with the cost of plex then multiplying it with the cost of plex ingame yields: 14,342,899,834.9. So you want a titan to cost as much as a super-carrier hull?


Interesting math you got there.
Zihao
Doomheim
#396 - 2015-09-18 17:01:09 UTC
Have the Marxists got us a 5 year plan yet?
Bagrat Skalski
Koinuun Kotei
#397 - 2015-09-18 18:35:58 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
a titan should cost 200 eur max, therefore i predict plex at 10b within 5 years

Or 0B in 2 years.

CCP could just liqidate all PLEX and convert all of it to Aurum. Aurum would then became a sellable item, more granular.
Zihao
Doomheim
#398 - 2015-09-18 19:16:09 UTC
Bagrat Skalski wrote:
Harry Forever wrote:
a titan should cost 200 eur max, therefore i predict plex at 10b within 5 years

Or 0B in 2 years.

CCP could just liqidate all PLEX and convert all of it to Aurum. Aurum would then became a sellable item, more granular.


That's not a bad idea really. Assuming equivalent pricing a more divisible currency would be more flexible. It would also see more speculation though as the price to participate in said speculation would drop. I like it.
Circumstantial Evidence
#399 - 2015-09-18 19:31:47 UTC
Supply has slowly increased over the last 12h, but not at the prices we might like, lol. Again, the important thing for CCP, if they are intervening in supply at all, is to calm the rate of increase.

I think a few rich players (all these 25-lots) are hoping for another run-up, to cash out on the high end. (But they could have been listed for sale some time ago, I wasn't looking for these types of numbers in previous posts.)

The 36-lot at the "low" end is the largest lot on the low side, which kind of puts a temporary "floor" on things, for as long as it stays un-edited and other players say "no, I can sell cheaper than that." Only looking at the large lots. There are a bunch of 9-lots lower than this, an easy number to type that might also be a small number of players ;)

Numbers from eve-central:

1,600,000,000.00 - 25
1,500,000,000.00 - 25
1,499,999,999.00 - 20
1,400,000,000.00 - 25
1,380,000,000.00 - 25
1,370,000,000.00 - 25
1,365,000,000.00 - 25
1,329,598,999.00 - 22
1,318,999,999.99 - 36

Interesting Buy order:
1,256,007,000.00 - 100
Wow.
Bagrat Skalski
Koinuun Kotei
#400 - 2015-09-18 19:56:16 UTC
Its hard to say where these prices would be in a month. Days of predictability are over. Something snapped.