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Decline in numbers... starting to turn into RAPID!!!

First post
Author
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#61 - 2015-08-25 16:05:18 UTC
Tiberius Heth wrote:
Years and years of focussing on PVE, bearing and making everything easier/safer lead to this and it's highly ironic a bear would then state "we need more pve, that would surely help".


Way of the world brother, and it's understandable, people don't like to think that the thing they like could be a source of things they don't like.

But yea it is ironic as hell, the people who claim the game is dying and needs changing are at the same time advocating for things that would speed up the games demise.
Primary This Rifter
Mutual Fund of the Something
#62 - 2015-08-25 16:06:46 UTC
It's astonishing to me how many idiots there are in complete denial that there's a problem.
Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#63 - 2015-08-25 16:11:59 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
AtramLolipop wrote:

What it isn't is HS incursion payouts. Many use HS incursions to grind quickly to fund other types of game play. The actual amount of ISK generated in HS via a HS incursion is no where near the amount of isk generated via missioning and ratting in null sec. Get this one right now!


The above just isn't true. In fine and Glorious fashion, one of the people defending incursions once posted a link to a chart CCP published showing isk faucets.

The one for 'bounties' (missions, anoms, belt rats, things like that) was close to 30 trillion isk on that graph Incursion rewards (with the overwhelming bulk coming from high sec) was like 10 trillion.

"NOW WAIT, Doesn't that prove what I just said?!!" you are probably asking yourself. Well, you'd think so...

...Till you realize that that 30 trillion isk is generated by Tens of Thousands of characters killing thousands upon thousands of NPCs all over Known Space, where as that 10 trillion isk bundle made mostly from high sec incursions if falling into the hands of a few hundred players. It means incursion runners per capita isk generation is a good couple light years past every other form of liquid isk generation.

And the above does NOT take into account CONCORD LP...


Last time I looked there were something like 80,000 characters in alliances that hold null sov, and nullsec accounts for 75% of all isk bountes, so something like 22.5 trillion isk per month.

80,000 characters (not all ratting, but that's the population) and null regions only generate slightly more than twice (22.5 T isk) as much as a few hundred incursions runners (10 T isk) . And most of that incursion isk comes from high sec (space protected by CONCORD).

You can't tell me that's not broken as all hell. I know of what I speak, I was a refugee in high sec for a long time running incursions because null just wasn't worth it. Ran with TVP, ISN, WTM and others.


But isn't a good part of the raw ISK from incursion sunk back when dealing with the LP store?
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#64 - 2015-08-25 16:20:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Jenn aSide
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Jenn aSide wrote:
AtramLolipop wrote:

What it isn't is HS incursion payouts. Many use HS incursions to grind quickly to fund other types of game play. The actual amount of ISK generated in HS via a HS incursion is no where near the amount of isk generated via missioning and ratting in null sec. Get this one right now!


The above just isn't true. In fine and Glorious fashion, one of the people defending incursions once posted a link to a chart CCP published showing isk faucets.

The one for 'bounties' (missions, anoms, belt rats, things like that) was close to 30 trillion isk on that graph Incursion rewards (with the overwhelming bulk coming from high sec) was like 10 trillion.

"NOW WAIT, Doesn't that prove what I just said?!!" you are probably asking yourself. Well, you'd think so...

...Till you realize that that 30 trillion isk is generated by Tens of Thousands of characters killing thousands upon thousands of NPCs all over Known Space, where as that 10 trillion isk bundle made mostly from high sec incursions if falling into the hands of a few hundred players. It means incursion runners per capita isk generation is a good couple light years past every other form of liquid isk generation.

And the above does NOT take into account CONCORD LP...


Last time I looked there were something like 80,000 characters in alliances that hold null sov, and nullsec accounts for 75% of all isk bountes, so something like 22.5 trillion isk per month.

80,000 characters (not all ratting, but that's the population) and null regions only generate slightly more than twice (22.5 T isk) as much as a few hundred incursions runners (10 T isk) . And most of that incursion isk comes from high sec (space protected by CONCORD).

You can't tell me that's not broken as all hell. I know of what I speak, I was a refugee in high sec for a long time running incursions because null just wasn't worth it. Ran with TVP, ISN, WTM and others.


But isn't a good part of the raw ISK from incursion sunk back when dealing with the LP store?


Yes it is. But sinking isk in that way is still generating Wealth

Being able to generate that kind of wealth shooting npcs in space while being protected by CONCORD is directly opposite of how risk/reward should work. You can generate wealth via null and low incursions, but doing so is damn near suicide if you use the kinds of blingy ships you can in high sec.

High Sec incursions create a disruption in the game that skews results in other ways. When CCP nerfed the anom system in null sec, rather than fight for better space, many players just went to high sec and fought for a place in an incursion fleet lol.

High Sec Incursions literally thwarted a CCP game design goal in null, because it (along with other broken income generating methods like FW missions) help create the conditions where null became a renters desert. In other words, Null sec overlords got RICH renting space they didn't personally want to nubs to nubby to understand that they could have been making better isk in wormhole space, high sec incursions and/or low sec/FW without having to pay rent. Rich people usually do become rich on the backs of dumb people lol.
Seven Koskanaiken
Shadow Legions.
SONS of BANE
#65 - 2015-08-25 16:25:01 UTC
Must be an Indian Summer this year.
Primary This Rifter
Mutual Fund of the Something
#66 - 2015-08-25 16:27:25 UTC
It doesn't matter what we say. CCP has their echo chamber going strong and it'll run the game into the ground.
Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#67 - 2015-08-25 16:32:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Eli Apol
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Eli Apol wrote:
Tippia wrote:

The trouble with any graphs based upon the publicly available data we have is that we're just studying actively logged in account numbers, not unique players nor even active accounts.

ISbotting nerf
Extended skill queues
Multicharacter training
1b plex prices meaning people shed some of their alts or hibernate them

4 reasons why the PCUs will be down without necessarily losing a single player.


You can only meet a logged account in EVE, no matter if he's an alt or not. Less logged character is still less people in the game at that moment.


Right because the people running multiboxed incursion fleets are really adding content for the rest of us.
As are the ones that purely logged in to update a skill queue.
Or alts that are just alts for the sake of using cheap plex...maybe spais, maybe cloaky campers, maybe cloaky scouts, etc....
Most of them you'll never see except as names in local.


Or as I already said, PCUs are a flawed statistic in a game of alts.

e: I'm not refuting that people might have left the game - I personally know of at least one person that left HQ incursions and took 40 accounts with him along with multiple others running VGs that no longer play on any of their 12 accounts - what I am saying is that you can't ascertain the extent of the change from this particular metric.

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#68 - 2015-08-25 16:36:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Jenn aSide wrote:
"NOW WAIT, Doesn't that prove what I just said?!!" you are probably asking yourself. Well, you'd think so...

...Till you realize that that 30 trillion isk is generated by Tens of Thousands of characters killing thousands upon thousands of NPCs all over Known Space, where as that 10 trillion isk bundle made mostly from high sec incursions is falling into the hands of a few hundred players. It means incursion runners per capita isk generation is a good couple light years past every other form of liquid isk generation.

For reference, back when we had the glorious Diagorias to go to, we had PCUs in the 40-50k range, 176,862 characters running missions over a month's time, and the average highsec incursion runner earning 172M raw ISK (not including LP) per day.

Unfortunately, since they've never provided a breakdown of bounty sources, we have no idea how much each of thise 177k mission runners pulled in, but the absolute maximum — combining all bounty and agent rewards as if no other form of ratting existed — would have given them 27 + 4 trillion ISK, or 1tn per day, to share. That comes out to just under 6M ISK per character per day. Of course, bounties come from other sources too, so the raw ISK wasn't that high, but in terms of total income that was somewhat balanced out by the additional earnings that came from LP, loot, and salvage.

So 5–6M ISK per day, on average, is still — incredulously, miraculously — a decent estimate… Lol
Salvos Rhoska
#69 - 2015-08-25 16:41:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Jenn aSide wrote:

You can't tell me that's not broken as all hell. I know of what I speak, I was a refugee in high sec for a long time running incursions because null just wasn't worth it. Ran with TVP, ISN, WTM and others.

Rest of your post was very poignant and informative, but I wanted to focus on this anecdote in particular.

(I dont want to make this a nerf HS thread, as the range of problems throughout EVE in all sectors contribute)

HS safety is a matter for dispute, and complicated, but ultimately the real problen imo is the lucrativeness of some HS activities, under HS security. Its the profits that are off, not primarily the security.

Someone operating permanently in HS has no problem making consistent profits, at very little risk.
The profits dont NEED to be this good, because risk is so low, and this inversly is causing players usually located elsewhere to relocate back to HS rather than deal with local issues.

As an example, I shamefully lost a ship when I wandered into a HS 4/10 someone had triggered all the spawns on.
I should have realized when the first gate was open that something wasnt right.
Nonetheless, I then warped into a fully triggered spawn with 2 stasis towers and blew up almost instantly.
NPCs did this. Not players (which prompted discussion in chat btw, about idea of deliberately triggering HS 4/10s and then harvesting the wrecks of hapless combat explorers as they die on entry, which was very cool).
Am I concerned? No (though ashamed) Cos I can make it back, in relative safety, in HS.
Its too easy to profit, even for me, with my own (notable) stupidity as my only primary obstacle.
Due to HS, I systemically have far less risk from player intervention.

Not only does this raise the threshold for me to move out of HS (which I dearly want to, but am scared...) but it also commensurately lowers the threshold for players to return back to HS.

Though it is also true that someone deep in alliance secured space quite possibly enjoys even greater profits at less immediate risk, but that is an achieving result of players, not of the ruleset. Community provides that security, not CCP.

The current HS problem, is too high profit in some activities, for this level of risk and commitment.
HS is bleeding action out of the rest of EVE, in both directions.
HS doesnt need this degree of profit, in and of itself, to sustain HS activity.
Life is cheap, safe and predictable. Its manageable even with a significant income nerf.
Furthermore transit of materials to market is also safe in HS, and doing business in HS competitive markets is safe (and lucrative, due to no extant modifiers, which is another topic along the lines of higher taxes for doing business in HS than other sectors).

Returning to the impetus of the topic, as per Jenn aSides anecdote, HS with its profits (and security as secondary), is emptying conflict regions of EVE, in favor of HS, especially when things get hard OR things get boring.. Its currently a buffer, a profitable fallback, above and beyond what it should be. The irony here being that if HS profits were lower, we'd probably have an even lower activity rate atm, as players tired with NS complications would either leave the game, or some few move out to LS or WH (which bothhave their own integral issues to boot).
Umar Umarhabib
Doomheim
#70 - 2015-08-25 16:45:44 UTC
Mir Jana wrote:
I was wondering about something...

January 2014 - average was 41k online
June 2014 - average was 32k online
December 2014 - average was 27k online
May 2015 - average was 21k online
August 2015 - average is 16k online

today I logged in at 14793 online.....

What can CCP do to re-build its populace cause obviously something is rotten in the state of Iceland...?


Yep, the decline in numbers is also bad for Eve's economy. Since it's a sandbox economy, it thrives on having participants.

As the number of participants get smaller, something is gonna go out of whack.
Darth Schweinebacke
Wings of Fury.
#71 - 2015-08-25 16:45:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Darth Schweinebacke
Jenn aSide wrote:


Yes it is. But sinking isk in that way is still generating Wealth

Being able to generate that kind of wealth shooting npcs in space while being protected by CONCORD is directly opposite of how risk/reward should work. You can generate wealth via null and low incursions, but doing so is damn near suicide if you use the kinds of blingy ships you can in high sec.

High Sec incursions create a disruption in the game that skews results in other ways. When CCP nerfed the anom system in null sec, rather than fight for better space, many players just went to high sec and fought for a place in an incursion fleet lol.

High Sec Incursions literally thwarted a CCP game design goal in null, because it (along with other broken income generating methods like FW missions) help create the conditions where null became a renters desert. In other words, Null sec overlords got RICH renting space they didn't personally want to nubs to nubby to understand that they could have been making better isk in wormhole space, high sec incursions and/or low sec/FW without having to pay rent. Rich people usually do become rich on the backs of dumb people lol.


While I agree with the statement that incursions generate too much ISK, you are changing your goalpost here from ISK faucet to generates too much wealth.

If you want to go down that road you also have to include wealth generated from, faction, deadspace, officer mods and other loot into the equation and I doubt that this would work in favor of your argument.

On your initial statement that the incursions as ISK faucet being in need for a change: There is a rather easily solution.

Lower the ISK payout and increase the LP payout + add new items to the concord LP store to prevent that the prices of items from all the LP stores are completly crashing (keep in mind here that concord LPs can be exchanged for other LPs as well).

There are lot´s of items in the game which do not have a faction version yet and adding concord versions of those could very well prevent that the prices for faction items completly crash.

examples:

- Warp Disrubtion Field Generators
- Micro Jump Drives
- Target Lock Breaker (those suck in general, but maybe a pimped version of them could actually make using the module worthwhile)
- Resistance Shift Hardeners
- AARs / ASBs (For ASBs I would rather like to see the t1 versions be nerfed a bit and having faction versions with the stats of the current ASBs, or just give the faction versions space for 1-2 extra charges)
- Damage Controls
- ECM Bursts
- ECCM Modules

And I guess there are quite a few more items which do not have any faction counterparts yet.
Guttripper
State War Academy
Caldari State
#72 - 2015-08-25 17:00:43 UTC
Eve went from being fun to another form of work, except this time I am not getting paid. So while my accounts are active, they are idle as I pursue other forms of entertainment.
Salvos Rhoska
#73 - 2015-08-25 17:03:46 UTC
Guttripper wrote:
Eve went from being fun to another form of work, except this time I am not getting paid.


What form of work in EVE, specifically?

Are you talking about earning enough isk to PLEX?
AtramLolipop
Space Wolves ind.
Solyaris Chtonium
#74 - 2015-08-25 17:12:06 UTC  |  Edited by: AtramLolipop
Jenn aSide wrote:
AtramLolipop wrote:

What it isn't is HS incursion payouts. Many use HS incursions to grind quickly to fund other types of game play. The actual amount of ISK generated in HS via a HS incursion is no where near the amount of isk generated via missioning and ratting in null sec. Get this one right now!


The above just isn't true. In fine and Glorious fashion, one of the people defending incursions once posted a link to a chart CCP published showing isk faucets.

The one for 'bounties' (missions, anoms, belt rats, things like that) was close to 30 trillion isk on that graph Incursion rewards (with the overwhelming bulk coming from high sec) was like 10 trillion.

"NOW WAIT, Doesn't that prove what I just said?!!" you are probably asking yourself. Well, you'd think so...

...Till you realize that that 30 trillion isk is generated by Tens of Thousands of characters killing thousands upon thousands of NPCs all over Known Space, where as that 10 trillion isk bundle made mostly from high sec incursions is falling into the hands of a few hundred players. It means incursion runners per capita isk generation is a good couple light years past every other form of liquid isk generation.

And the above does NOT take into account CONCORD LP...


Last time I looked there were something like 80,000 characters in alliances that hold null sov, and nullsec accounts for 75% of all isk bountes, so something like 22.5 trillion isk per month.

80,000 characters (not all ratting, but that's the population) in the various null regions only generate slightly more than twice (22.5 T isk) as much as a few hundred incursions runners (10 T isk) . And most of that incursion isk comes from high sec (space protected by CONCORD).

You can't tell me that's not broken as all hell. I know of what I speak, I was a refugee in high sec for a long time running incursions because null just wasn't worth it. Ran with TVP, ISN, WTM and others.



AND CCP also produced a graph and are report documenting ISK in the economy and it roots... I wonder which graph i'd prefer to look at? What you seem to forget is that literally incursions are played out by 100's of people. Not the 1000's. 100's do not change the course of a game in what used to be a 68K online users.
Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#75 - 2015-08-25 17:12:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Eli Apol
Tippia wrote:
176,862 characters running missions over a month's time


176,862 characters accepted missions over a month's time.

Yay mission pulling alts right, every L5 runner loves them.

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

Salvos Rhoska
#76 - 2015-08-25 17:13:57 UTC
AtramLolipop wrote:

AND CCP also produced a graph and are report documenting ISK in the economy and it roots... I wonder which graph i'd prefer to look at?



Could you link that, if its not too much trouble?
Guttripper
State War Academy
Caldari State
#77 - 2015-08-25 17:15:48 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
What form of work in EVE, specifically?

Are you talking about earning enough isk to PLEX?

For me personally, the yearly cost for multiple subscriptions is a non-factor.

The "work" aspect to me varied among the various tasks I was doing at the time. One example that spurred me away was ~playing the market~ aspect. I would create my own personal formulas for buying and selling stuff. So I used to have some off the wall prices going. Some market areas appear to have bots running with them because there were times whenever I would use the broker, almost an exact x amount of time later, there would be a higher or lower price of 0.01. And this was constant if I varied whenever I used the market (real life time differences). After a while, forget it - too much like work to me to go against a computer...
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#78 - 2015-08-25 17:17:46 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
176,862 characters accepted missions over a month's time.

Yay mission pulling alts right, every L5 runner loves them.

…and at 38 missions a head, they probably found one they liked eventually.
AtramLolipop
Space Wolves ind.
Solyaris Chtonium
#79 - 2015-08-25 17:22:39 UTC  |  Edited by: AtramLolipop
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
AtramLolipop wrote:

AND CCP also produced a graph and are report documenting ISK in the economy and it roots... I wonder which graph i'd prefer to look at?



Could you link that, if its not too much trouble?


Will try to find it, from memory, the last time everyone pointed fingers at HS incursions, this report came out from CCP and it pretty much killed the debate. Although, if i remember correctly, it resulted in CCP making some changes to spawn rates as well as the reduction in the number of HS incursions. Even at it peak HS incursions represented only a minute amount isk that was generated. That might have changed fractionally, in my opinion it is all in proportion.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#80 - 2015-08-25 17:27:34 UTC
AtramLolipop wrote:
Will try to find it, from memory, the last time everyone pointed fingers at HS incursions, this report came out from CCP and it pretty much killed the debate. Although, if i remember correctly, it did highlight some reasons why VG's needed to be changed. Even at it peak HS incursions represented only a minute amount isk that was generated. That might have changed fractionally, in my opinion it is all in proportion.

It was never really a minute amount. It has pretty consistency stood for ⅙ of the injected ISK, and been the second or third largest individual faucet.