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How much time left until the Iran war starts ?

Author
iudex
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#1 - 2012-01-01 20:32:30 UTC  |  Edited by: iudex
The amount of news articles about Iran has increased dramatically in the last few weeks (speaking here for the German media, this shouldn't be different in other western countries). Iran has this, and does that and whatnot. And yes, it has weapons of mass distru...*cough* ... is building nuclear weapons.

How long until we will attack .. err no .. free Iran and send in the NATO to "bring them democracy" ?

My estimate: 2-3 months at most, what's your guess ?
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#2 - 2012-01-01 20:41:27 UTC
Right after Isreal gets done for war crimes.
Myxx
The Scope
#3 - 2012-01-01 21:10:44 UTC
If republicans get elected in the US... immediately after the 2012 election.

If sanity reigns.. hopefully not any time soon.
Toshiro GreyHawk
#4 - 2012-01-01 23:49:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Toshiro GreyHawk
The problem is ... nations like Iran pretty much have to start the wars that destroy them.

Democracies are extremely reluctant to do what needs to be done - unless they are forced into it.

If the former leader of Iraq hadn't attacked Kuwait - he'd be alive and his sons would still be raping any girls they wanted - even though we KNEW then that he was working to make nukes. It wasn't until we got an overt action on his part - that things changed. Even then, even after invading Kuwait ... we did NOTHING about him for over ten years. Even then - if he'd continued to cooperate with the UN Weapons inspectors ... we probably wouldn't have invaded.

N. Korea - while they've pulled a few border stunts - hasn't done anything really serious (unless you were one of or related to some of the people they killed). So ... they were allowed to develop nuclear weapons because the powers that could have stopped them were not willing to do what needed to be done - that is - go to war with N. Korea - to stop them.



Lately Iran has been upset about all the sanctions put on them - though this isn't something that's going to get them to stop making nukes ... that kind of thing never does but ... it may make them mad enough to do something like try to block the Straights of Hormuz. They've tried that before - with little or no success.

Yes, they hit some oil takers with RPG's ... which is like a mosquito biting a horse. Now ... don't get me wrong ... mosquitoes can kill cattle (they swarm on and in their soft muzzles biting them so much their breathing passages swell up and the cow can't breath) but that's rare and ... takes a lot of mosquitoes.

Yes, they engaged USN ships escorting the tankers and - because they refused to respond to attempts to contact it - lost an air liner that had the misfortune to be flying right over the battle.

And yes - they lost a very large chunk of their Navy when the US sent in a carrier strike and blew some of it up.

But ... this was all skirmishing ... and nothing anyone was willing to go to war over.

Probably ... - note probably - that's all that's going to happen now.


As to taking out their nukes - that will probably happen - as it did before - when the Israelies feel they're to close to getting one going and take the place out. The Iranians are taking measures to prevent that - but that's ... probably what will happen.


The problem that Iran has that N. Korea doesn't - is a nation (Israel) that is even more fanatical than they are, with the means to do something about it.


Short of Iran invading Iraq (to say ... liberate the Shiites in the south) or getting a bomb and using it - the chances of the west going to war with Iran are slim. Skirmishes - yes. I could even see landings, in the form of raids, in the Hormuz area if we needed to take out facilities they were using to lay mines or fire missiles from - if we couldn't get them from the air - but that's about it.

A leadership change in Iran is more likely. That doesn't mean they'd suddenly become a democracy or anything like that - or give up their nuclear weapons program - but the clerics who really rule the country can remove it's civil leaders pretty much any time they want.


As to something like the Arab Spring happening ... probably not. The thing is - the reason we have the problem we do in Iran now - is that the nation is mostly made up of peasants who get all their news from their village Mullah's. The Shah, with his "White Revolution" tried to drag his country kicking and screaming out of the middle ages - but - because it's mostly very religious peasants ... they didn't want to go. When the liberal city dwellers turned on him because of his efforts to suppress just the kind of people who are in power now - he was in big trouble. Then he got cancer and ... then the Army, which was made up of peasants started joining the peasants ... and he was done. The religious fanatics that took over didn't kill off all the intelligent people - it wasn't another Cambodia and there was no Pol Pot - but they've put them in their place and suppressed their demonstrations. The thing the Iranian Intellectuals have against them - is that they are over whelmingly outnumbered by the peasants - who still do whatever their mullahs tell them to.

That's the thing about a war with Iran - is that unlike the former leader of Iraq - where a lot of the people just hated him - the Theocracy in Iran is largely supported by it's people. They're stuck in the middle ages - and like it that way. They would not be a push over the way Iraq was. Militarily there isn't much difference. Iran doesn't have that good a military - but - just as they cleared land mines with their bodies in the Iran/Iraq war - they'd fight fanatically against a western invasion. We could take over the country - but we'd have to kill millions of them to do it. There's a reason Iraq resorted to using gas on them ... and it worked fairly well. The difference between us and the former dictator of Iraq - is that it would bother us to kill millions of Iranians.


So ... an all out war with Iran - isn't something I see happening in the near future - unless the Iranians get really stupid.

.
Herr Wilkus
Aggressive Salvage Services LLC
#5 - 2012-01-02 00:00:26 UTC

Its been said in as many words, Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear strike capability.
They have openly admitted they wish to 'wipe out' Israel.
In light of this, if required, military force will be used to stop them.
North Korea couldn't be stopped because Seoul was held hostage by massed artillery.
Iran has no such ace up their sleeve, and very little support in the Arab world. (See: Wikileaks cables from Arab leaders asking for the US to deal with Iran)

I'm quite sure the US won't be 'declaring war' anytime soon.

Depends on how Iran reacts when we blow up their nuclear facilities, doesn't require a war to do that. Israel has destroyed nuclear facilities in both Iraq (1983) and Syria (2007 or 2008?) without starting a wider war.

Once their nuclear facilities are crippled, we go back to not caring (much) what they do.

If they back down, whine to the UN, but ultimately accept it, great, terrific, thats the end of the crisis.

If they respond by declaring war on Israel or the US, start blowing up neutral tankers, firing missiles and acting the fool - well, additional measure would likely be taken against them. Really, its up to the Iranians.








Citizen20100211442
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#6 - 2012-01-02 00:42:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Citizen20100211442
For those who still watch TV and yet replied in this thread - can you answer what country Iran attacked yet? (lets not count ancient times when Persian attacked Greece, etc). Before spilling your hipocrisy, take a look at Israel, which made nukes without letting anyone to know, and yet keeps expanding their teritory from 1948's up to now in aggressive manner. I don't know about you, but i feel symphathy to Iran, which 51% of society are persians - people who geneticaly are very close to today white Europeans.

To be, or not to be, that's the question.

stoicfaux
#7 - 2012-01-02 00:44:18 UTC  |  Edited by: stoicfaux
Well, it's the Politician's job to win wars before they start. Let's see what we have:

Iran will have nukes as a matter of national pride and as a means to becoming the super power of the Middle East. Obama doesn't want a shooting war/incident/limited engagement (i.e. bombing Iranian nuke plants.) The Arab states in general don't want the Persians to have nukes, nor for Iran to be a local super power. Israel really, really, really, really doesn't want Iran to have nukes and the means (e.g. missiles) to deliver those weapons. The Palestinians probably don't want Israel nuked due to being next to, in, and/or on top of Israel. Iran's threat to "close" the strait is an empty threat since it will devastate their economy, never mind that a Iranian military blockade would be used as an excuse for the US to bomb anything in Iran that they wanted to, meaning the US won't limit itself to a proportional response.

IMO, the US (especially Obama) won't attack Iran's nuclear facilities unless *everyone* else (Arabs, NATO, and maybe China, Russia, and South America) agrees that bombing Iran is a Good Thing. So not likely.

Israel could strike Iran's nuke plants, but that's only a delaying tactic and would completely kibosh (what's left of) Israel's relations with the Arabs, and could cause the Arab Spring democracies to go completely Anti-West/US. The US would probably react negatively in public and cut some of Israel's military aid. The US would also advise Israel not to do it, since the US really wants West friendly Arab democracies.

Israel could just do a nuclear first strike on Iran and just be done with it. But I don't think Israel would survive afterwards. So not likely.


So unless someone has something that Iran wants badly enough to voluntarily give up its weapons program, I think that, in no particular order:
a) Iran will develop nukes,
b) much posturing be done and additional sanctions will be implemented but the West, Arabs, and Israel won't engage in direct military conflict,
c) sanctions won't work
d) Russian and China (and probably Venezuela) will violate sanctions and trade with Iran.
e) the US, Britain, and Israel will publicly state that any nukes that fall into terrorists' hands will be assumed to have been provided by Iran, and Iran will be subject to nuclear retaliation,
f) the spy games will continue in earnest (there's a slim chance that a nuclear "accident" (espionage) will occur with Iran's uranium and/or bomb)
g) Iran will develop the ballistic missile tech to deliver nukes to Israel and parts of Europe.
h) the US will sell and install a missile shield in Arab countries to counter the Persian threat,
i) most of the Arab governments will ally with the US against the Persians, as in any attack on the Arabs is considered to be an attack on the US.
j) the Arab propaganda machines will increasingly refer to Iran as the Persians instead of as brother Arabs in order to sway public opinion against the Persians.


tl;dr - no war, unless something odd happens.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#8 - 2012-01-02 01:11:17 UTC
Citizen20100211442 wrote:
For those who still watch TV and yet replied in this thread - can you answer what country Iran attacked yet? (lets not count ancient times when Persian attacked Greece, etc). Before spilling your hipocrisy, take a look at Israel, which made nukes without letting anyone to know, and yet keeps expanding their teritory from 1948's up to now in aggressive manner. I don't know about you, but i feel symphathy to Iran, which 51% of society are persians - people who geneticaly are very close to today white Europeans.


The guys in charge are a bit nuts thoughBlink
Alpheias
Tactical Farmers.
Pandemic Horde
#9 - 2012-01-02 01:12:42 UTC
Never, I hope.

There has been enough war already.

Agent of Chaos, Sower of Discord.

Don't talk to me unless you are IQ verified and certified with three references from non-family members. Please have your certificate of authenticity on hand.

BLACK-STAR
#10 - 2012-01-02 01:43:10 UTC  |  Edited by: BLACK-STAR
Politics. Before thread is locked by Phantom.

Iran is weak and they don't want war, nobody does. But they do have an ace card, this is Isreal and there is reason isreal established expanded borders for little airspace/intercept control.

as for NK they have rather a limited range of force (might I add, pitiful and flimsy- Iran could not rely on, especially full front with NATO or US for example).

in short Iran would be decimated with collateral damage. the price of this isn't worth it, mathematically Iran is out gunned and out nuked so they wouldn't do something mischievous, unless they're insane. But then again, US gov is insane. but who is more insane?

hmm. we're okay, but if it happens, Iran's next war is with sticks and stones.
ChakanForever
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#11 - 2012-01-02 01:59:03 UTC
Myxx wrote:
If republicans get elected in the US... immediately after the 2012 election.

If sanity reigns.. hopefully not any time soon.


Don't be disillusioned by the "Bi-partisan" party system. It's either Ron Paul and peace or any other candidate and more nation building/ "War on [insert inanimate object here]" wars.
stoicfaux
#12 - 2012-01-02 05:07:43 UTC
ChakanForever wrote:

Don't be disillusioned by the "Bi-partisan" party system. It's either Ron Paul and peace or any other candidate and more nation building/ "War on [insert inanimate object here]" wars.


Ron Paul would lose the peace by pulling all the troops home and cutting all foreign aid. Half the reason for the US having a worldwide presence is to keep the global markets friendly to and trading with the US.

There are plenty of countries that would love to fill the vacuum if US troops went home. China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Germany, etc.. I'm vaguely sure that if those countries were to establish spheres of influence, they would cut out the US from regional trade, and then we would really see our economy tank.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

Caleidascope
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#13 - 2012-01-02 07:54:28 UTC
I think about 2014 or 2015. It will start with Iranian "liberation" of Southern Iraq.

Life is short and dinner time is chancy

Eat dessert first!

Toshiro GreyHawk
#14 - 2012-01-02 08:11:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Toshiro GreyHawk
As to why no one wanted to attack N. Korea - yeah - they've got a million man army. Democracies don't like to do hard things and beating a million man army would be hard. And yes - Soul is right on the border. Thus ... now ... N. Korea has a million man army - and nukes.



As to Iran not attacking anybody? How about all the terrorists they support? How about their role in keeping the fighting going in Iraq? Ask the Israelies about Iran and you'll get an ear full.



As to them attacking someone themselves ... last thing I can think of was those islands they had a dispute with Iraq about. Under the Shah when they had a good military - they took the disputed islands and Iraq couldn't do anything about it. Then - when the Shah fell - Iraq took those islands back - and for the next 8 years or so you had the Iran/Iraq war. I'm sure it had more to do with it than that but I just don't remember at the moment.

For those interested:

Iran-Iraq War



As to Iran being allowed to have nukes - Obama, peace loving, liberal democrat Obama - has said they will not be allowed to have them. If the US & Israel decide that Iran can't have nukes - they won't get them - 'cause we'll blow them up first. What the Iranians will do about that remains to be seen. We'll pretty much know when it happens.

As to the Arabs getting all upset because we bombed the Persians? That pretty much is going to depend on how much they think of them as fellow muslims and how much they think of them as Persians. Note - if you call one the other - they are insulted.



Now, as to feeling sorry for Iran ... I feel sorry for the westernized Iranians. Those that supported the current government though ... nope ... no sympathy there.


.
Grimpak
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#15 - 2012-01-02 10:39:09 UTC
Alpheias wrote:
Never, I hope.

There has been enough war already.




unfortunately, in this one, like in any other war, it's not a matter of "if" but a matter of "when".

[img]http://eve-files.com/sig/grimpak[/img]

[quote]The more I know about humans, the more I love animals.[/quote] ain't that right

Lyrrashae
Hellstar Towing and Recovery
#16 - 2012-01-02 14:40:56 UTC
Ca. 40% of the West's oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz...This will end well Roll

Ni.

Hieronymus Alexandre
Fashionable Enterprises
#17 - 2012-01-02 17:38:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Hieronymus Alexandre
Citizen20100211442 wrote:
For those who still watch TV and yet replied in this thread - can you answer what country Iran attacked yet? (lets not count ancient times when Persian attacked Greece, etc). Before spilling your hipocrisy, take a look at Israel, which made nukes without letting anyone to know, and yet keeps expanding their teritory from 1948's up to now in aggressive manner. I don't know about you, but i feel symphathy to Iran, which 51% of society are persians - people who geneticaly are very close to today white Europeans.


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Israel_Defense_Forces

While Israel has certainly committed more than its share of atrocities, all of its territory was gained through the occupation of fortified territory during wars of defense or matched aggression. Also note that is was France that originally gave nuclear technology to Israel.

ibtl
Brujo Loco
Brujeria Teologica
#18 - 2012-01-02 22:40:46 UTC
BAH, where are the crackpots and tin foil artists of OOPE? I remember when OOPE had resident ALIEN, LIZARDMEN, NWO and Bilderberg Group Threads sponsored every once in a while by the old forum warriors of the TinFoil Order of Revelation and the Human Knights against the Lizardmen Menace.


I'm sorry but it must fall within my hands now, I have to post this MOVIE that will explain, like everything before, WHAT YOU SHEEP FAIL TO SEE OMGBBQ!!!! (foams at the mouth)


IT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE NEW WORLD ORDER LED BY THE LIZARDMEN 9/11 INSIDE JOB/ BILDERBERG GROUP REPUBLIBOTS MASONIC LODGE BOHEMIAN YALE RED SKULL OVERLORDS Decide its the time!!!


YES! CHEMTRAILS EXISTS!!!1111ONEELVENELEVEN!!!1!!!110TEN!

/removes tin foil

Sorry, we need more chaos in this threads , else it will stagnate. I'm simply an observer. (hiss)

Inner Sayings of BrujoLoco: http://eve-files.com/sig/brujoloco

SpaceSquirrels
#19 - 2012-01-03 00:05:20 UTC
Too be fair to Iran not an un-wise idea. The US has never attacked another nation with nuclear weapons. (Or any other western nation)

Unless they do something blatant (None of the typical saber rattling they're known for) I doubt it will happen given the climate, and the logistics of it.

Iran just likes to give the metaphorical middle finger to the west, but in reality they dont want a conventional war. 1. Domestic stability is not so great. (Green revolution anyone?) 2. A great deal of their population actual doesn't have a problem with the US. (The Islamic conservative factions in Iran do however)

Now... Israel on the other hand is who you have to worry about dragging us in to it. Cause Israel these days likes to jump at shadows... Then proceed to airstrike and flamethrower said shadow. (Though given their history I get their psychological state of mind.)
Adunh Slavy
#20 - 2012-01-03 03:15:21 UTC
Both sides are trying to work the other into doing something stupid.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

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