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Calculating market direction?
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Illegal Spokeswoman
Doomheim
#1 - 2015-07-31 15:07:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Illegal Spokeswoman
I'm trying to calculate a rough market direction using the data that is collectble through API (eve central)

Currently I have a formular using the Buy order and sell orders volumes to give a rough indication of the direction.
< buy orders = down
> buy orders = up

It can be wrong from time to time which is why I'm wondering if anyone has a better/more accurate method for calculating this?

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Darion Maken
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#2 - 2015-07-31 16:46:32 UTC
Ummmm...I tried to figure out if this was a troll or a real question. Since I'm a positive person by nature I'll assume it's a real question. There are whole areas of science dedicated to predicting market trends. I suspect if you think about it, with trillions of dollars moving around the world daily - a few people might have considered this a profitable thing to figure out. So Google 'financial models to predict markets' and go from there. If you are asking someone to give you their model, I suspect you won't find many takers. If you want an EVE specific reference - I know the Prosper blog does some of this (but haven't dug into it myself). I believe in SCC-lounge there are folks that market trend - they may be a good resource as well. Good luck.

Darion
okoolos rimmer
Napkin Nation
#3 - 2015-07-31 16:58:10 UTC  |  Edited by: okoolos rimmer
If you really want to create your own modelling tools here are the topics you're gonna need to be familar with:

regression analysis:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis

stochastic modelling:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_modelling_(insurance)

stochastic investment model:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_investment_model

All three require a fair amount of math.

ps. Knowledge of different statistical distributions will be required as well.
Illegal Spokeswoman
Doomheim
#4 - 2015-07-31 17:04:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Illegal Spokeswoman
It's not a troll.

I spend most of my time tinking with my spreadsheets. This was something I always wanted to implement properly, now seeing as I've got everything else working how I wanted I've come back to it but needed some ideas for the calculations.

I'm not so much looking for a prediction model tool, though that would be good. I'm looking for something that would tell me the current direction of the market.
Perhaps you need the prediction tool for this I have no idea. I'm going to look over the stuff you both suggested and see if it helps me at all.

edit -
it may make more sense if you think of it as me wanting to know if the market has more supply or more demand. Demand being calculated from buy orders.

or using the avg or median values against the lowest sell to work out if the price is going down or up.

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