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It's Always A Bad Time To Be A Blacksmith

Author
Robby Altair
#1 - 2015-05-19 00:10:42 UTC
Important & Shocking News!
How Machines Destroy (And Create!) Jobs, In 4 Graphs
Okay, I just really like the 4 graphs. Roll

Room 3420 Boelter Hall UCLA

Hrothgar Nilsson
#2 - 2015-05-19 03:55:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Hrothgar Nilsson
Cashiers are most definitely going to be one of those occupations on the decline in the near future. Anybody who has been to a CVS or even just any grocery store has seen firsthand the expansion of self-checkouts in the last decade. Furthermore, the expansion of internet commerce will continue to impact retail, but perhaps to the benefit of niche retailers that aren't viable online (juice freshly juiced into growlers, on demand from hundreds of fruits/vegs on hand, in the time it takes to get McDonald's as a retail chain, anybody?)

Nurses, though they may be on the increase right now, will definitely decrease as America's baby boomers die off. Hopefully Social Security and Medicare will recover contemporaneously, but probably not (thanks to our politicians for spending the every penny of surplus since the 1930s and writing worthless IOUs, like Lloyd and Harry from Dumb and Dumber).

I'm glad to see lawyers and judges level off. They're like dandelions - a few are definitely beneficial for the lawn as they fix nutrients that benefit surrounding plants. The flowers can even be pressed for wine, the nutritious leaves and stems eaten in salads, the leaves dried to make a nutritious tea, and the root's waxy secretions used for medicine and even rubber! That's the original reason why they're in America, imported from Eurasia. But left unchecked they simply wipe out everything else.

Guards, watchmen, and doorkeepers on the increase - essentially private police who operate for private concerns, and sometimes not in the public's best interest. America in 2015 has never been safer than it is now, but with all of the paranoia and fear instilled by our politicians and media it's no surprise this will continue to climb (tune into the news at 9, something new you never knew you were supposed to be afraid of!)

Police seeing a slight decline - there are definitely too many police without enough to do. Hell, our federal law enforcement agencies are busy entrapping perfectly innocent people and targeting thought criminals (laundering their entrapment methods through the use of "informants"), because there otherwise ain't enough real crime to justify their budgets.

Doctors - seeing a mild increase after decades of mild decreases - definitely a good thing. With the unjustifiable quotas imposed on the number of graduates in the field of medicine by various medical associations and state licensing agencies, doctors are overpaid and there aren't enough of them. Probably one of the reasons nursing as an occupation is on such an upswing as well. Lift the quotas and allow anyone with the aptitude to graduate with a medical degree - and bring down healthcare costs at the same time. Of course, the doctors staffing these boards and agencies might have some words to say about that. And there's enough underutilized medical equipment that costs hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars as well that ought to be more heavily utilized and shared between doctors and medical facilities, starting now and continuing later.

And farmers - don't get me started. As few of them as there are nowadays, they're sucking our reservoirs, lakes, and rivers dry throughout the West so California can export 80% of its almonds and all of its alfalfa to China. Lobbying for corn subsidies and sugar tariffs to put corn in every food item, and corn in our gas tanks, while the internal combustion engine will be a mostly dying technology as the decades roll on.
Bagrat Skalski
Koinuun Kotei
#3 - 2015-05-19 07:36:05 UTC
This graph.
In year 2050 AI workers will take over and people will became Eloi.
jason hill
Red vs Blue Flight Academy
#4 - 2015-05-19 18:53:55 UTC
Cashiers are most definitely going to be one of those occupations on the decline in the near future. Anybody who has been to a CVS or even just any grocery store has seen firsthand the expansion of self-checkouts in the last decade. Furthermore, the expansion of internet commerce will continue to impact retail, but perhaps to the benefit of niche retailers that aren't viable online (juice freshly juiced into growlers, on demand from hundreds of fruits/vegs on hand, in the time it takes to get McDonald's as a retail chain, anybody?)


gotta take issue on this one . Here in the UK there a major backlash regarding self service checkout . Transpires the average consumer here in the uk resent the fact that when shopping in a supermarket the they are presented with a robot and theres an active campaign to get them removed

the supermarkets and banks are listening aswell

doesn't just stop there. call centres are being relocated back to the UK from india due to backlash of jobs being lost and the language barrier problems
Hrothgar Nilsson
#5 - 2015-05-19 22:05:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Hrothgar Nilsson
I think that in the not too distant future, self-checkout will likely take the forum of swiping a card on the way in, and the sum of all the RFID tags in your cart will serve to automatically ring up your balance as you push the cart out the door. Manually swiping barcodes over laser readers will then be so 20th century.

There may be backlash against this temporary stop-gap measure (swiping/bagging your own stuff), but I doubt this will be the case when the RFID checkout method matures. Keep in mind that before the invention of the shopping cart and supermarket, one would simply make a list and hand it to the grocer, who would then have a boy gather everything on your list while you waited. People did not gather their own groceries back then and bring to a cashier for purchase, and later adjusted to "doing all the work" of gathering their own groceries just fine. People will adjust just fine to the RFID checkout method as well.

I've also seen the trend of call centers being relocated back to the US. Often times they keep the midnight shift in India though, while days and afternoons are state-side. Often times economically disadvantaged locales fight for these low-paying jobs with generous tax breaks and free city services (road, sewer, etc).
Unezka Turigahl
Det Som Engang Var
#6 - 2015-05-20 01:47:47 UTC
I prefer self-checkout. I don't have to interact with people, and it is faster, so I can more quickly get the hell out of there and return to my cave. Of course sometimes you'll get some mouth-breathers gumming up the works, bringing the self-checkout aisles to a halt. Or some momo decides it would be cute to roll an entire years worth of groceries up to the tiny self checkout station...
Bagrat Skalski
Koinuun Kotei
#7 - 2015-05-20 07:27:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Bagrat Skalski
You are going to the mall? Why the mall can't go to you? You could choose products and then drones would bring it to your house. No salesman, no driver, no shop management. No jobs, but every product is there, farmed on robotic farms. Bringed to robotic facilities by robots, bringed to malls by robots, drived to human by robot.
In entertainment channels Artificial intelligence serve you reality shows with characters that are humanly flaved, there is a kind of "choose your story" thing, people can say what they want if character ask himself, and can change the story. Then its generated on the go. Cool

Invigilation by robotic AI is present from birth to the death of human being.
Nerath Naaris
Pink Winged Unicorns for Peace Love and Anarchy
#8 - 2015-05-20 07:56:26 UTC
Hrothgar Nilsson wrote:
I think that in the not too distant future, self-checkout will likely take the forum of swiping a card on the way in, and the sum of all the RFID tags in your cart will serve to automatically ring up your balance as you push the cart out the door. Manually swiping barcodes over laser readers will then be so 20th century.


Yes, and ALL that data will then be routed into some mainframe located at an undisclosed location where your shopping habits will be data mined by an automated software.

Protip: In the near future don´t buy too much fertilizer and especially don´t buy fertilizer and cooking pots at the same time unless you too want to take a vacation at some undisclosed location.....

Je suis Paris // Köln // Brüssel // Orlando // Nice // Würzburg, München, Ansbach // Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray

Je suis Berlin // Fort Lauderdale // London // St. Petersburg // Stockholm

Je suis [?]

Hrothgar Nilsson
#9 - 2015-05-20 08:09:30 UTC
Bagrat Skalski wrote:
You are going to the mall? Why the mall can't go to you? You could choose products and then drones would bring it to your house. No salesman, no driver, no shop management. No jobs, but every product is there, farmed on robotic farms. Bringed to robotic facilities by robots, bringed to malls by robots, drived to human by robot.

Testing/trying out brick and mortar locations would still be nice in that event. Test a microwave, a stove, try on shoes, clothes, examine the quality and appropriateness of the product to one's needs. Sometimes word of mouth is insufficient, and one's perceptions of a product online may not match up with reality.
Hrothgar Nilsson
#10 - 2015-05-20 08:15:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Hrothgar Nilsson
Nerath Naaris wrote:
Yes, and ALL that data will then be routed into some mainframe located at an undisclosed location where your shopping habits will be data mined by an automated software.

Protip: In the near future don´t buy too much fertilizer and especially don´t buy fertilizer and cooking pots at the same time unless you too want to take a vacation at some undisclosed location.....

Extraordinary rend... ahem, vacation.

I actually pay for most everything with cash and make absolute minimal use of credit/debit cards myself. Suffered a bout of credit card fraud committed by someone in London who bought my information from the hackers of Midwest Payment Processing in 2009. I additionally use a wide variety of other steps to protect my privacy in this day and age (VPN, hard disk encryption, no social media, careful use of electronic communication, etc). Unlike most people, I like to stay a bit off the grid in terms of all information being online, just one click away.

I personally wouldn't care for RFID auto-checkout, and would opt for more traditional methods of purchases (with the exception of eBay/Amazon/NewEgg/vaping products), but seeing as how 90% of people just can't shut up about everything they see, do, buy, sell, and eat on the internet, and don't care what the No Secrets Anymore agency does unless they're looking at their wiener pics, most people would likely embrace it.
stoicfaux
#11 - 2015-05-20 13:08:46 UTC
Self-checkout? You all are a bunch of Amish Luddites stuck on an early 21st century retro-fad.

I have Amazon Prime Now in my area. I order on the iPad and they deliver my stuff to my front door a few hours later (or within an hour if I really need it sooner.)

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

stoicfaux
#12 - 2015-05-20 15:24:52 UTC
Bagrat Skalski wrote:
You are going to the mall? Why the mall can't go to you? You could choose products and then drones would bring it to your house. No salesman, no driver, no shop management. No jobs, but every product is there, farmed on robotic farms. Bringed to robotic facilities by robots, bringed to malls by robots, drived to human by robot.

For those not convinced yet:

Smart phone/tablet app + 3D Printers/Makers and/or warehouse robots + driverless cars + home address == teh future.


On a side note, if we manage to get flying drones working for delivery, we just might need fewer roads, so add road construction crews to the list of declining jobs as well.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

RavenPaine
RaVeN Alliance
#13 - 2015-05-20 17:54:51 UTC
About blacksmiths:

I know 3 personally. All of them are multi-talented and do other trades that are *connected* to smithing.

1 is a real cowboy. He breaks horses, heards cattle, fixes fences, roping competitions, branding, shapes horseshoes, welds, etc. etc.

1 is a knife maker/sword maker. He also makes wrought iron stuff, ornamental iron. Gates, fences, handrails. Custom stuff.

1 is a gunsmith, but he also has a forge and anvil. He can make almost anything, though most of his work ends up on a mill or a lathe. More mechanized.

The thing is, All these guys make a lot of money. And they all stay busy as much as they want.
Sometimes when there's not a lot of demand for something, there's also not a lot of competition for that job.

Burtzum
Det Som Engang Var
#14 - 2015-05-20 23:27:45 UTC
I think most people these days who do blacksmithing also do other stuff to make ends meet. More modern methods of metal working.

Personally I like the look of more primitive stuff. Making stuff for yourself is rewarding also.

My first experiments with blacksmithing and woodworking/lutherie:
bottle opener
recreation of an old folk instrument

I actually know someone that is a hat maker. And she makes hats in vintage styles. Doubly anachronistic. But vintage is big right now. Probably thanks in part to Mad Men.

Some old ways of doing things are just stupid though. I've heard you can't pump your own gas in New Jersey. You have to wait for your manservant to come out and do it for you.


Herzog Wolfhammer
Sigma Special Tactics Group
#15 - 2015-05-21 01:01:45 UTC
First, I have a friend who is a blacksmith with a specialty in knives and swords and he's basically an artist. I like to drink beer and hang out in a corner of the forge and watch leaf springs get turned into real working swords. Yeah these are no wall hangers. I'm having one made that will have "when the ammo runs out" stenciled on the scabbard.


As for jobs being replaced by machines, I have a theory that everything a Human Resources Department does can be done by a computer, as I have worked on profiling and stat software as far back as the 90s, and that a day will come when HR must be run by computers so to prevent bias. That is, a corporate policy can be plugged right into it.

Of course the kind of people who go into HR departments just to be change agents for all their little social causes will be a little angry. And I will bask in their tears.

Seeing I have never had an original idea in my life, I expect someone else will do it. If I have to do it, I'll make it open source.

Bring back DEEEEP Space!

RavenPaine
RaVeN Alliance
#16 - 2015-05-21 04:11:56 UTC  |  Edited by: RavenPaine
http://www.tacomaweekly.com/news/view/business-spotlight-vulcan-knife/



You can google their shop for a ton of other pictures of what they sell and what they do.
Most of their advertising doesn't even touch on all the stuff they can do.
Eurydia Vespasian
Storm Hunters
#17 - 2015-05-21 18:20:23 UTC
I highly doubt nurses will ever be in low demand. The population is not getting any smaller. What difference does the baby boomer generation make at all? Are the old the only ones needing care? Did people stop being born after the boomers? Their will always be more elderly and those becoming elderly to replace the ones that die. And more of them every year. Increasingly.
Hrothgar Nilsson
#18 - 2015-05-27 18:31:38 UTC
Eurydia Vespasian wrote:
I highly doubt nurses will ever be in low demand. The population is not getting any smaller. What difference does the baby boomer generation make at all? Are the old the only ones needing care? Did people stop being born after the boomers? Their will always be more elderly and those becoming elderly to replace the ones that die. And more of them every year. Increasingly.

In certain countries, the population is either leveling off or in decline. Furthermore, the "baby boomer" cohort in these populations is larger than those in younger cohorts, sometimes hugely so in certain countries. For example, Germany. Or Japan. The US is not quite as top-heavy as these countries, but still, the "baby boomer" cohort is the largest single segment of the population.
Eurydia Vespasian
Storm Hunters
#19 - 2015-05-27 21:00:54 UTC
There were 2.55 billion people in 1950. There's what? 7 billion now? That's a lot of future old people.
Hrothgar Nilsson
#20 - 2015-05-27 22:36:00 UTC
Eurydia Vespasian wrote:
There were 2.55 billion people in 1950. There's what? 7 billion now? That's a lot of future old people.

I was referring primarily to the United States and secondarily, Western/OECD nations. The website posted by the OP refers to the United States. You have a point when it comes to the rest of the world.
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