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Make market speculation more fair

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Author
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#61 - 2015-05-06 01:54:34 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Not reading the thread.

Cancel orders for a changing item.
Pause the market for that item, (12 hours?) then people can sort themselves out and when the item goes live again, all time zones have had a window to sort out their market orders.


I can see it being done in fringe cases like SKINs, Genos 3/4, but Zydrine?! ShockedShockedShocked

The more artificially it is managed and withheld, the larger the swings and volatility will be as a result, upon recommencement of trading - just look at market circuit breakers employed in the world beyond the Eve Gate/World.
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#62 - 2015-05-06 01:58:07 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Not reading the thread.

Cancel orders for a changing item.
Pause the market for that item, (12 hours?) then people can sort themselves out and when the item goes live again, all time zones have had a window to sort out their market orders.


I can see it being done in fringe cases like SKINs, Genos 3/4, but Zydrine?! ShockedShockedShocked


If you do it with only a few things, that creates special cases that make certain types of items guaranteed investments, thus completely skewing the market.

No, clearly the only "fair" way to do this in a market like EVE's, that has such a high level of integration, is to cancel every single order on the market, every time they change anything that might effect the price of an item that can be sold.

That is, if we decide that we now, for whatever reason, give a flying rat's ass about whether the game is "fair" or not.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#63 - 2015-05-06 02:02:45 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
GankYou wrote:
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Not reading the thread.

Cancel orders for a changing item.
Pause the market for that item, (12 hours?) then people can sort themselves out and when the item goes live again, all time zones have had a window to sort out their market orders.


I can see it being done in fringe cases like SKINs, Genos 3/4, but Zydrine?! ShockedShockedShocked


If you do it with only a few things, that creates special cases that make certain types of items guaranteed investments, thus completely skewing the market.


Indeed. BAD THOUGHTS. BAD THOUGHTS.

The only time that I, personally in light of my activities and choice of investments, lose money right now, is when I fat-finger a market order update myself. I've sold 3 Abaddons Tash-Murkon Edition for 440k p/u pre-dev blog/patch, and considering how many orders I modify per day, my luck can only go up from here onward.

Until such a time that it happens again. Smile

I wish there was short-selling in EvE, so that I could enhance market PvP even more, and provide contentâ„¢ for the OP to look at - the increasing ISK balance in my eight wallet accounts. Blink However, following a fundamental change/news in EvE, all trades are very, VERY one-sided. Case-in-point: Zydrine, Mexallon, Megacyte, Pyerite.

Yes, there had been some uncertainty on Nocxium, but anyone who had been paying attention to the new Crokite volumes and compositions could see it being driven down from 650 p/u.
Phaade
LowKey Ops
Shadow Cartel
#64 - 2015-05-06 02:10:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Phaade
Seems that most of the people responding to the OP have no clue what the issue is. Reading comprehension / critical thinking failure.

Yes, you get screwed because you woke up after the changes were made. Yes, clearing buy / sell orders would stop people from getting screwed by news they were unavailable to receive because this is, in fact, a game, and we are not, in fact, running investment firms.

How does this not, at least partly, solve the problem?

C'mon now, at least try to use your brains.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#65 - 2015-05-06 02:14:24 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Phaade wrote:
Seems that most of the people responding to the OP have no clue what the issue is. Reading comprehension / critical thinking failure.

Yes, you get screwed because you woke up after the changes were made. Yes, clearing buy / sell orders would stop people from getting screwed by news they were unavailable to receive because this is, in fact, a game, and we are not, in fact, running investment firms.

How does this not, at least partly, solve the problem?.


How would you have handled the Zydrine & Megacyte input doubling on most BPOs in EvE announcement? Blink

I'm not quite sure why I'm continuing to post in a thread with "Market speculation" and "Fair" being used in the same sentence in the thread title. X

Free drama is drama. Oh, well vOv

Emiko Rowna wrote:
I was hearing a lot of chatter about inside information being used related to the Skins change. People acting on info even before it is released is a bigger issue if you ask me.

Can anyone speak to this? How valid are the concerns people have voiced?


The SKINs presentation happened during the Fanfest, there were several Dev blogs on the matter prior to that, if I recall correctly.

I was merely hoping for 300% returns, but it actually came closer to 2000-4500% on some commodities. Bought Edition Frigate BPCs for 8 mil p/u, Cruisers for 20 p/u and Battleships with Dreadnaughts 60 mil and 100 mil respectively. Smile

PLEX at that time was 800m p/u / 3500 AUR = 228k ISK per AUR, but I knew the name of the game so I discounted by 15% and sought out people with lotta AURUM in their pocket. A fair exchange, if I say so myself. Smile

Those NES Store AURUM prices couldn't last, if the the system was planned to be converted to a Permanent one. Sensible investment, no insder trading - Same as with Zyd/Megacyte, which posted all-time record lows in late 2014-YC116. Smile

Some of the youngsters may not remember Megacyte and Zydrine at 5,600 and 3,600 ISK p/u. Blink
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#66 - 2015-05-06 02:33:19 UTC
Phaade wrote:

How does this not, at least partly, solve the problem?


It's not a problem. That's where the whole premise fails, at least the first part. It fails several other times as well, but the assumption that people being allowed to lose is a problem is where it does so first.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

FT Diomedes
The Graduates
#67 - 2015-05-06 02:46:39 UTC
I have no sympathy for market speculators getting caught with their pants down or missing an opportunity due to sleep. That is pretty much the only risk you run in Eve - that someone else gets information faster than you and can react faster than you. You know that risk up front and should plan for it. It's not necessary to undock for your profession - so this is the risk.

Don't speculate with what you cannot afford to lose.

CCP should add more NPC 0.0 space to open it up and liven things up: the Stepping Stones project.

FT Diomedes
The Graduates
#68 - 2015-05-06 02:51:50 UTC
While we are at it, can CCP please move me to London? I would like to have a faster lock time so I can catch interceptors. It is totally unfair that not everyone in the world has the same distance to the servers!

CCP should add more NPC 0.0 space to open it up and liven things up: the Stepping Stones project.

Donnachadh
United Allegiance of Undesirables
#69 - 2015-05-06 13:49:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Donnachadh
Market speculation is by nature a risk but with that being said there is still potential for problems in these things created by CCP and directly linked to time zones and when all of these changes are introduced into the game at downtime and to deny that is dishonest.

I know you are going to say that these changes are usually documented well in advance of the "official" release so one should be prepared. My response would be that markets change minute by minute in the early hours after downtime and those whose primary game time is always immediately after downtime have an unfair advantage that is directly related to time zones and that gives them an opportunity to adjust to the markets in real time as they are changing instead of hours later and in some cases nearly a full day later.

To me there is no doubt that time zones and their relationship to when these changes are actually implemented in the game give some players an unfair advantage. The real question or questions should be how can this be changed, can it be changed to spread out the risks and rewards more evenly across all time zones.
Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#70 - 2015-05-06 14:16:42 UTC
Ripard Teg wrote:

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then.


Maybe they should of put smaller buy orders...
Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#71 - 2015-05-06 14:18:43 UTC
Donnachadh wrote:
Market speculation is by nature a risk but with that being said there is still potential for problems in these things created by CCP and directly linked to time zones and the timing of official announcements of game changes and to deny that is dishonest.

I know you are going to say that these changes are usually documented well in advance of the "official" release so one should be prepared. My response would be that markets change minute by minute in the early hours after downtime and those whose primary game time is always immediately after downtime have an unfair advantage that is directly related to time zones and that gives them an opportunity to adjust to the markets in real time as they are changing instead of hours later and in some cases nearly a full day later.

To me there is no doubt that time zones and their relationship to when these changes are actually implemented in the game give some players an unfair advantage. The real question or questions should be how can this be changed, can it be changed to spread out the risks and rewards more evenly across all time zones.



Unless you change how downtime happen, then no. Unless you want to suggest CCP have their staff responsible for downtime procedures to have work shift spanning any part of the day across the years to be able to even out the downtime across all time zone...
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#72 - 2015-05-06 14:33:56 UTC
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Not reading the thread.

Cancel orders for a changing item.
Pause the market for that item, (12 hours?) then people can sort themselves out and when the item goes live again, all time zones have had a window to sort out their market orders.


No. People who speculate in the market should not be protected from downside exposure on the markets even from actions of CCP. After all people also make huge amounts of isk when it works in their favor. You risk your isk to make a profit. If you "nerf' the risk, then FFS nerf the profits. Market speculators are not special snowflakes.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Donnachadh
United Allegiance of Undesirables
#73 - 2015-05-06 14:35:18 UTC
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Unless you change how downtime happen, then no. Unless you want to suggest CCP have their staff responsible for downtime procedures to have work shift spanning any part of the day across the years to be able to even out the downtime across all time zone...

That is only one possible method that CCP could and should investigate as a possible solution and there is no technical reason why it cannot be done that way. Several of the online games I play routinely change the timing of major release as a way of balancing things across the time zones and see no reason why CCP cannot or should not do the same thing.

Perhaps there is no practical way to change this and those in the EU time zones will have an unfair advantage forever.

I guess my real point is that because of the time zone they choose to live in or were born into gives one certain advantages or disadvantages and denying that serves no purpose other than to lie to yourself about it.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#74 - 2015-05-06 14:41:38 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Not reading the thread.

Cancel orders for a changing item.
Pause the market for that item, (12 hours?) then people can sort themselves out and when the item goes live again, all time zones have had a window to sort out their market orders.


I can see it being done in fringe cases like SKINs, Genos 3/4, but Zydrine?! ShockedShockedShocked

The more artificially it is managed and withheld, the larger the swings and volatility will be as a result, upon recommencement of trading - just look at market circuit breakers employed in the world beyond the Eve Gate/World.


Yep.

Basically EVERYONE would be sitting there waiting to jump into the market after one of these changes. So instead of the ramp up we saw, it would be step...a rather large step too.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#75 - 2015-05-06 14:44:45 UTC
Donnachadh wrote:
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Unless you change how downtime happen, then no. Unless you want to suggest CCP have their staff responsible for downtime procedures to have work shift spanning any part of the day across the years to be able to even out the downtime across all time zone...

That is only one possible method that CCP could and should investigate as a possible solution and there is no technical reason why it cannot be done that way. Several of the online games I play routinely change the timing of major release as a way of balancing things across the time zones and see no reason why CCP cannot or should not do the same thing.

Perhaps there is no practical way to change this and those in the EU time zones will have an unfair advantage forever.

I guess my real point is that because of the time zone they choose to live in or were born into gives one certain advantages or disadvantages and denying that serves no purpose other than to lie to yourself about it.


How many of those games that have alternate time deployment are single shard with a persistant world and a player driven economy?
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#76 - 2015-05-06 14:56:47 UTC
Donnachadh wrote:
Market speculation is by nature a risk but with that being said there is still potential for problems in these things created by CCP and directly linked to time zones and when all of these changes are introduced into the game at downtime and to deny that is dishonest.


There is almost no way to prevent people from profiting from changes to the market by CCP interventions. You could only do it after the fact. You'd essentially have to "tax" it away. Go into everyone's account who benefited from the intervention and remove that isk. That would likely be a considerable amount of work by CCP and still I'm not sure I see the point.

So, I see no valid reason for this nor has anyone really provided one.

Donnachadh wrote:

I know you are going to say that these changes are usually documented well in advance of the "official" release so one should be prepared. My response would be that markets change minute by minute in the early hours after downtime and those whose primary game time is always immediately after downtime have an unfair advantage that is directly related to time zones and that gives them an opportunity to adjust to the markets in real time as they are changing instead of hours later and in some cases nearly a full day later.


Markets change all the time, right after downtime is not any different except when there is a patch. But if the changes are announced ahead of time with a large enough lead time this will have minimal effect. Look at the mineral change, the price changes happened largely before the patch.

Donnachadh wrote:

To me there is no doubt that time zones and their relationship to when these changes are actually implemented in the game give some players an unfair advantage. The real question or questions should be how can this be changed, can it be changed to spread out the risks and rewards more evenly across all time zones.


What matters is the announcements. After announcements then market speculator can swing into action. If you make the announcements a week or more ahead of time, trust me prices will start to change immediately after the announcement. That is how markets work. In and out of game. The one thing we don't have in game is a futures market.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#77 - 2015-05-06 15:21:06 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:

There is almost no way to prevent people from profiting from changes to the market by CCP interventions.


I'll take this one a step further and say that I would laugh if they tried. The playerbase routinely outsmarts them with the implementation of pretty much every mechanic. That said, taking steps in this direction would, regardless of the success or(much more likely) failure of such a thing, be a bad decision.

Every mechanic that interferes with the game to shield people from their own failure takes away another piece of the sandbox. This would be a big damned piece.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#78 - 2015-05-06 15:26:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Donnachadh wrote:
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Unless you change how downtime happen, then no. Unless you want to suggest CCP have their staff responsible for downtime procedures to have work shift spanning any part of the day across the years to be able to even out the downtime across all time zone...

That is only one possible method that CCP could and should investigate as a possible solution and there is no technical reason why it cannot be done that way. Several of the online games I play routinely change the timing of major release as a way of balancing things across the time zones and see no reason why CCP cannot or should not do the same thing.

Perhaps there is no practical way to change this and those in the EU time zones will have an unfair advantage forever.

I guess my real point is that because of the time zone they choose to live in or were born into gives one certain advantages or disadvantages and denying that serves no purpose other than to lie to yourself about it.


The TZ effect is not related to downtime. It is related to when this information goes public. So long as we randomize the announcements, or even make them rotate (e.g. the next one is say Eastern USTZ, then the one after that is Central TZ, then Mountain TZ, the Pacific TZ, etc. this way everyone gets a shot at taking advantage of changes to the game that affect the markets) then downtime becomes largely irrelevant. Market participants take in information as soon as possible and act on it. Either they cancel buy orders, put up new ones, or even go and buy up existing sell orders. This affects the price which in turn tells other market participants information like go mine more, mine less, put up a POS to compress ore, and that last one will send signals to people who do PI do start making more POS fuel block inputs if enough POS go up to drive up the price of fuel blocks. Prices contain information, information from these announcements and what is going on in game. As new information becomes available, speculators will incorporate that information into their behavior and thus the new resulting prices will contain the new information as well.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Zan Shiro
Doomheim
#79 - 2015-05-06 16:54:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Zan Shiro
Phaade wrote:
Seems that most of the people responding to the OP have no clue what the issue is. Reading comprehension / critical thinking failure.

Yes, you get screwed because you woke up after the changes were made. Yes, clearing buy / sell orders would stop people from getting screwed by news they were unavailable to receive because this is, in fact, a game, and we are not, in fact, running investment firms.

How does this not, at least partly, solve the problem?

C'mon now, at least try to use your brains.




Clearing market orders is a lot of work. It be a SQL script that ideally would be a fair amount of time to make sure it works right in testing before it hit production servers. As it be GM's who get the flood of petitions if for some reason the script killed more than just slated items buy orders.

I have worked with vendors whose applications work off of SQL. Stuff like this is very time consuming, and expensive (as it rarely falls under your annual maintenance agreement terms of service). Last one was cheap at 4000 USD. And went in phases. Phase 1 their script worked pretty damn good. about 95%of what I wanted done covered. It was working with the last 5% problem children (call me jaded, but you always get murphy showing up in any IT project, best you can hope for is limited appearances really) scenario as it were that had a few calls made and rewrites. On my end it was added work restoring DB's to a set state in test sql setup, apply script, do analysis after. Big or small in importance and/or size DB wise.....something goes bad someone's ass is hanging over a fire. A good IT slave like me....makes sure that ass isn't mine lol.

This is probably why CCP saves even text rewrites for more major patching. Its lumped in with more major changes that justify labor costs of that script testing process.


Secondly as one poster asked and was not answered back on.....one put up those buy orders for a reason, did they not. Unless a really bad pilot but rich we can assume they weren't stocking up on this to cover pvp losses. CA's especially.Losing that many one is buying up sets of them in droves to get screwed.....if actually using them for personal use imo they need to slow the hell down and work on the pvp skills that has them eating these up like candy tbh.
Hakaari Inkuran
State War Academy
Caldari State
#80 - 2015-05-06 17:14:16 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Donnachadh wrote:
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Unless you change how downtime happen, then no. Unless you want to suggest CCP have their staff responsible for downtime procedures to have work shift spanning any part of the day across the years to be able to even out the downtime across all time zone...

That is only one possible method that CCP could and should investigate as a possible solution and there is no technical reason why it cannot be done that way. Several of the online games I play routinely change the timing of major release as a way of balancing things across the time zones and see no reason why CCP cannot or should not do the same thing.

Perhaps there is no practical way to change this and those in the EU time zones will have an unfair advantage forever.

I guess my real point is that because of the time zone they choose to live in or were born into gives one certain advantages or disadvantages and denying that serves no purpose other than to lie to yourself about it.


The TZ effect is not related to downtime. It is related to when this information goes public. So long as we randomize the announcements, or even make them rotate (e.g. the next one is say Eastern USTZ, then the one after that is Central TZ, then Mountain TZ, the Pacific TZ, etc. this way everyone gets a shot at taking advantage of changes to the game that affect the markets) then downtime becomes largely irrelevant. Market participants take in information as soon as possible and act on it. Either they cancel buy orders, put up new ones, or even go and buy up existing sell orders. This affects the price which in turn tells other market participants information like go mine more, mine less, put up a POS to compress ore, and that last one will send signals to people who do PI do start making more POS fuel block inputs if enough POS go up to drive up the price of fuel blocks. Prices contain information, information from these announcements and what is going on in game. As new information becomes available, speculators will incorporate that information into their behavior and thus the new resulting prices will contain the new information as well.

People will start complaining that pacific tz got a better announcement than au tz who got a better assignment than EU and oh god, Eastern US Tz NEVER gets a GOOD announcement in 3 years blah blah blah.

Randomize, don't rotate.