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Make market speculation more fair

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13kr1d1
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#21 - 2015-05-04 23:22:37 UTC
Jayne Fillon wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Ripard Teg wrote:
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.


This solves the TZ problem....how?

It doesn't. They're not even remotely related. The suggestion is sound, but neither the motivations for nor the benefits from such a change are related to timezones.



How exactly is it not related to timezones?

Person wakes up in Timezone A, sees the news of changes, and market speculates.
Person wakes up after this in Timezone B, sees the changes, and is screwed.

By dumping the modules/ore/whatever back to the seller during an announcement. peopl cant market speculate because theres nothing to buy at a cheap price. Those that would be "screwed sellers" because they wake up too late in the day, they aren't screwed.

Don't kid yourselves. Even the dirtiest pirates from the birth of EVE have been carebears. They use alts to bring them goods at cheap prices and safely, rather than live with consequences of their in game actions on their main, from concord to prices
13kr1d1
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#22 - 2015-05-04 23:25:14 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Ripard Teg wrote:
Apparently, the only people against whom you cannot market speculate are CCP.



Well no **** Sherlock. Nobody can speculate against people who have perfect (or at least complete) information and everyone else has imperfect/incomplete information.

Roll


CCP froze it for something related to real world money. Get it now?

Don't kid yourselves. Even the dirtiest pirates from the birth of EVE have been carebears. They use alts to bring them goods at cheap prices and safely, rather than live with consequences of their in game actions on their main, from concord to prices
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#23 - 2015-05-04 23:50:08 UTC
So... change something unrelated to your primary complaint?

How about no?

The market is like that. You rolls the dice, you takes your chances.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.
Omnathious Deninard
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#24 - 2015-05-04 23:53:02 UTC
And if this happens then when do things get reimbursed for those who's buy orders are completed a few hours before the announcement?

They put up the buy orders expecting to pay that much for a product, they recieved the product as requested.

If you don't follow the rules, neither will I.
Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
#25 - 2015-05-05 00:00:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Nevyn Auscent
unidenify wrote:
I do see your point about people get shafted in term of buy/sell order price vs announcement.\

But I don't have idea what we can do to prevent this. We do have measurement against insider info, but we also have to take risk in market speculation.

Risks should be player market based, not CCP changing the entire foundation based.
So CCP cancelling all orders is the best solution available.

Also.... What CA announcement? *checks Dev blogs* Not there *Checks announcement forum* Not there..... *this week in EVE* Not there..... *EVE Updates* Not there.....

How many forms of information are we meant to have to monitor to know these things?
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#26 - 2015-05-05 00:06:36 UTC
Nevyn Auscent wrote:

Risks should be player market based, not CCP changing the entire foundation based.
So CCP cancelling all orders is the best solution available.


Wrong.

Example, tournament ships, and other semi unique hulls. Their value majorly lies in their being few in number. If CCP announces releasing more of them, you would not be compensated. And rightly so, you're the one over valuing them for your own benefit, why should CCP support your actions in the first place?

They don't even guarantee the price of plex, which might as well be money. They're not going to just start with market lockouts just because a few people lose money on speculating. Guess what, that happens every patch.

It's not "unfair", as the OP dishonestly attempts to frame it with the rambling about timezones. It's how a market works in real life, too. Something changes, the first guys to figure it out make a kaboodle, the rest get left holding the bag.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#27 - 2015-05-05 00:07:36 UTC
Nevyn Auscent wrote:

Also.... What CA announcement? *checks Dev blogs* Not there *Checks announcement forum* Not there..... *this week in EVE* Not there..... *EVE Updates* Not there.....

How many forms of information are we meant to have to monitor to know these things?


Lol, the shrieks of the uninformed.

http://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels/eve-online-news/eve-is-twelve/

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#28 - 2015-05-05 00:08:46 UTC
Ripard Teg wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
So, you bring up a valid point, and then offer a suggestion that really doesn't address the point. Getting pissy about somebody pointing out the obvious is kinda ridiculous.

Well, you're saying that it wouldn't address any of the point, which isn't true.

If CCP had cleared the market sell orders for the Aliastra ships before announcing the SKINs change, for instance, then the people who owned those Aliastra ships would have had the option to relist the ships at a couple hundred million ISK... instead of the 15-30 million ISK for which they they were taken for because they (for the most part) didn't have that option.

In the same way, had CCP cleared the market buy orders for the CA-3/4 implants this morning before announcing the CA-3/4 gift, then the people who had those buy orders out would have had the option of putting out new buy orders at a somewhat more sane price instead of getting gouged for billions of ISK because they (for the most part) didn't have that option.

In the first case, the people holding those Aliastra ships got unfairly gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions. In the second case, the people who had those buy orders out there got unfairly gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions.

That's the problem that I think should be solved, and why I think clearing buy/sell orders would solve it.

The fact that it's always EUTZ doing the gouging is a separate but related issue. You're suggesting another way to solve it, which is to spread the gouging around fairly to all TZs. I'm OK with that solution as well, even though I think it's not quite as useful a solution. Because at the end of the day, it's still players being gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions.


Look, you had 2 points.

1. That the timing is always advantageous for people in the EU TZ.
2. Such announcements represent substantial downside exposure.

I asked how your solution addressed 1. Instead of saying, "Well...it doesn't" you got on your high horse and acted like a buffoon.

As for point 2...okay, if you want to limit people's exposure on the markets. I'm fine with leaving people exposed on the market myself, after all people benefit from these changes as well. That is part of what playing the speculator means. If people are going to be allowed to benefit from the upside of a CCP intervention...perhaps people should be exposed to the down side as well.

In any event regarding the timing of these releases, I think the solution is...go with randomized release times. That way no specific TZ gets an assured advantage.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Marsha Mallow
#29 - 2015-05-05 00:10:27 UTC
Ripard Teg wrote:
But I find the CA-3/4 thing particularly aggravating because the market effect was 100% predictable. CCP had to know the people with multi-billion ISK orders for CA-3s/4s were going to get shafted... and CCP Falcon said the change was being announced to "prevent market skullduggery"! If it were anyone but Falcon, I would believe that line to be a massive troll. Even with it being Falcon's dev-blog, I'm not sure it wasn't.

The 'market skullduggery' comment may have been in relation to CA-1 & 2s which are more of an accessible target for people to speculate in so that people can complete the Gen set. Those are the items people are looking at now, and the fact you haven't noticed that inbetween bleating about SKINs is quite telling. Actually, there were only 1-2 of the CA-3 and CA-4s being traded per day, so if people were sat on massive stockpiles they deserve to be shafted. And their wallet can probably take the hit as it's an item for long term spec, not day-to-day flipping. Have you even looked at the turnover on these items?

Ripard Teg wrote:
I bring up SKINs because it's damned interesting to compare and contrast the two changes. When CCP announced the SKINs change, what did they do? They instantly stopped trading in the AUR market for SKINs, not at down-time, but at the moment the dev-blog was published (a few hours later). Apparently, the only people against whom you cannot market speculate are CCP.

The house always wins Blink

Which makes it more fun trying to keep up.
Ripard Teg wrote:
If CCP had cleared the market sell orders for the Aliastra ships before announcing the SKINs change, for instance, then the people who owned those Aliastra ships would have had the option to relist the ships at a couple hundred million ISK... instead of the 15-30 million ISK for which they they were taken for because they (for the most part) didn't have that option.

In the same way, had CCP cleared the market buy orders for the CA-3/4 implants this morning before announcing the CA-3/4 gift, then the people who had those buy orders out would have had the option of putting out new buy orders at a somewhat more sane price instead of getting gouged for billions of ISK because they (for the most part) didn't have that option.

It's not for CCP to artificially tweak the market so traders can cash out and retain a profit. Players are not entitled to perceived profit based on entitlement complex. The market is one of the most unsafe areas of the game, and it's fun for that reason. Don't start crusading about this please. Remember traders probably gouged someone else to acquire their stockpiles in the first place - they're not innocent victims here who need to be mollycoddled. Traders are vicious, competitive, and if they're any good, fairly smart. They play in these areas because they enjoy the risk, and if they are any good at it, they profit. If they aren't they fail.

CCP never forced anyone to place buy orders for billions of ISK in items which (whilst rare) are not unique. Anyone trading in these should have done some background checking to see how likely their re-release might be. Intervening to tear down orders also causes problems because it deprives people of last minute sales and potentially makes them lose more ISK. You assume everyone will log in at the same time after a staggered announcement to relist - at which point they'll go into a frenzy crashing the market all at once.

Ripard Teg wrote:
In the first case, the people holding those Aliastra ships got unfairly gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions. In the second case, the people who had those buy orders out there got unfairly gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions.

There's no such thing as being 'unfairly gouged' when you are a trader by profession. Anyone playing in the market is a professional gouger themselves, buying stock from people then relisting at a mark up. It is entirely the traders responsibility to assess which items to trade and how much risk to take. In a gaming environment that means keeping a beady eye on what CCP is doing all the time and taking appropriate steps - which can reap massive rewards, or failures.

Ripard Teg wrote:
The fact that it's always EUTZ doing the gouging is a separate but related issue. You're suggesting another way to solve it, which is to spread the gouging around fairly to all TZs. I'm OK with that solution as well, even though I think it's not quite as useful a solution. Because at the end of the day, it's still players being gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions.

Since you are ex CSM I suggest you speak to mynnna about exactly who the large scale speculators are in the player market. I've never seen anything to indicate it's slanted more towards EU. Fair enough small time traders may be burnt by this. That's a lesson for them, and instead of demanding changes to how CCP operates maybe they'll take something away from this and play smarter.

Anyone with a brain knew something was coming with SKINs. The mineral changes as part of the sov revamp weren't a massive shock. If people are stunned and outraged that on EvE's birthday free items are being issued, frankly, they should probably stop trading right now and consider a different mini career. Anyone who is pissed off they missed recent speculative opportunities probably weren't even active in that market at the time.

If you want to take this timezone problem further perhaps the announcement should be restricted to an ingame notification so that people at work aren't deprived of their 'profits'. Good luck implementing any such system.

Ripard Teg > For the morons in the room:

Sweets > U can dd my face any day
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#30 - 2015-05-05 00:11:28 UTC
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Nevyn Auscent wrote:

Risks should be player market based, not CCP changing the entire foundation based.
So CCP cancelling all orders is the best solution available.


Wrong.

Example, tournament ships, and other semi unique hulls. Their value majorly lies in their being few in number. If CCP announces releasing more of them, you would not be compensated. And rightly so, you're the one over valuing them for your own benefit, why should CCP support your actions in the first place?

They don't even guarantee the price of plex, which might as well be money. They're not going to just start with market lockouts just because a few people lose money on speculating. Guess what, that happens every patch.

It's not "unfair", as the OP dishonestly attempts to frame it with the rambling about timezones. It's how a market works in real life, too. Something changes, the first guys to figure it out make a kaboodle, the rest get left holding the bag.


I agree here as well. People benefit from CCP's intervention...why should the downside of such intervention be limited?

If you are going to make an argument be consistent with that argument and apply it in all cases.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
#31 - 2015-05-05 00:24:16 UTC
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:


Wrong.

Example, tournament ships, and other semi unique hulls. Their value majorly lies in their being few in number. If CCP announces releasing more of them, you would not be compensated. And rightly so, you're the one over valuing them for your own benefit, why should CCP support your actions in the first place?

They don't even guarantee the price of plex, which might as well be money. They're not going to just start with market lockouts just because a few people lose money on speculating. Guess what, that happens every patch.

It's not "unfair", as the OP dishonestly attempts to frame it with the rambling about timezones. It's how a market works in real life, too. Something changes, the first guys to figure it out make a kaboodle, the rest get left holding the bag.

Wrong, CCP have said that the Tournament ships are LIMITED edition specifically.
If CCP go and change that, then it's not 'your fault' because CCP have changed the basic foundation on which the GAME operates. The market in real life does not have God come down and magically change things, that's what CCP's changes are actually analogous to, a real God intervening in day to day life.
Zappity
New Eden Tank Testing Services
#32 - 2015-05-05 00:26:00 UTC
Prop mods being in the next round was announced at fanfest. They have been using O7 for reveals, too. These are pretty good ways to get the message out reasonably equitably.

Zappity's Adventures for a taste of lowsec and nullsec.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#33 - 2015-05-05 00:31:25 UTC
Nevyn Auscent wrote:
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:


Wrong.

Example, tournament ships, and other semi unique hulls. Their value majorly lies in their being few in number. If CCP announces releasing more of them, you would not be compensated. And rightly so, you're the one over valuing them for your own benefit, why should CCP support your actions in the first place?

They don't even guarantee the price of plex, which might as well be money. They're not going to just start with market lockouts just because a few people lose money on speculating. Guess what, that happens every patch.

It's not "unfair", as the OP dishonestly attempts to frame it with the rambling about timezones. It's how a market works in real life, too. Something changes, the first guys to figure it out make a kaboodle, the rest get left holding the bag.

Wrong, CCP have said that the Tournament ships are LIMITED edition specifically.
If CCP go and change that, then it's not 'your fault' because CCP have changed the basic foundation on which the GAME operates. The market in real life does not have God come down and magically change things, that's what CCP's changes are actually analogous to, a real God intervening in day to day life.


Actually...it does. Big sudden events that are often deemed "acts of God" do happen. Katrina for example took a substantial portion of natural gas production offline and prices went up as a result. Those who had good hedge positions made out/rode it out fine. Those who did not...well better luck next time.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#34 - 2015-05-05 00:38:27 UTC
Nevyn Auscent wrote:

Wrong, CCP have said that the Tournament ships are LIMITED edition specifically.


And? You think that should be an ironhide guarantee? My God, you are so risk averse.

Quote:

If CCP go and change that, then it's not 'your fault' because CCP have changed the basic foundation on which the GAME operates.


They're not changing the "basic foundation" of a damned thing. This isn't like billboards, where you can't undock if they change it. The game still runs, the server churns on, you just lost some money.

Big whoop.


Quote:

The market in real life does not have God come down and magically change things, that's what CCP's changes are actually analogous to, a real God intervening in day to day life.


Someone's never been in the market. God comes along to **** with us fairly often, earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear meltdowns, North Koreans and all that. Heck, if you speculated in ammo, the attempted terrorist attack in Texas just made you a payday.

I guess the government should just halt trading any time something happens that might make anyone lose money?

Pft. Just like in real life, you roll the dice, you take your chances. Quit suggesting that being allowed to lose is somehow "unfair".

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#35 - 2015-05-05 00:44:23 UTC
I know this is probably painful to hear for the kind of people who relentlessly defend afk mining, but in a high priced commodities market, the onus is on you to pay attention to your investment, and watch for fluctuations.

Sometimes, stuff happens when you're asleep. That's part of the game. Don't have all your eggs in one basket, that's a general rule of EVE anyway.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.
eBil Tycoon
Empty Wallets
#36 - 2015-05-05 01:47:21 UTC  |  Edited by: eBil Tycoon
Ripard Teg wrote:
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.

Sometimes when you marketeer the market, the market will marketeer you back. Plan accordingly or go bust. Don't cry about needing crutches when things don't go your way.
Arya Regnar
Darwins Right Hand
#37 - 2015-05-05 02:00:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Arya Regnar
Ripard and his tears again.

Please, just go write about it on your blog.

I don't feel your pain, speculations are just as rewarding as they are punishing and unless you are checking for news every 5 minutes you aren't going to be fast enough anyway.

Crutches, crutches, crutches.
That is not Eve.

EvE-Mail me if you need anything.
Michael Ignis Archangel
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#38 - 2015-05-05 02:05:01 UTC
Michael Ignis Archangel wrote:
One question: if you didn't want to buy it for that price, why did you place an order to buy it at that price?



Self-indulgently returning to this thread to note that no one has answered my question.
Michael Ignis Archangel
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#39 - 2015-05-05 02:12:18 UTC
Phoenix Jones wrote:

Except there is absolutely no warning, foresight, notice, etc. there is no forecast of announcements (well be giving a gift tongue players in 2 days), would be enough for some people to stop some trades, but they can't even speculate when ccp will make the wind change.

Randomness is part of the game, but we aren't brokerage firms with 24 hour staff (minus the tradebots).



Were there no options to shield yourself, I might feel differently. However, when dealing with high-value items such as these, would it not be prudent to isolate risk to a limited-wallet, margin-trading character? You could put far less at risk than your open buy order. Electing not to do so implies a willingness to assume the risk, in my humblest of opinions.
Arya Regnar
Darwins Right Hand
#40 - 2015-05-05 02:52:51 UTC
Michael Ignis Archangel wrote:

Were there no options to shield yourself, I might feel differently. However, when dealing with high-value items such as these, would it not be prudent to isolate risk to a limited-wallet, margin-trading character? You could put far less at risk than your open buy order. Electing not to do so implies a willingness to assume the risk, in my humblest of opinions.

This guy gets it. Cool

EvE-Mail me if you need anything.