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Make market speculation more fair

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Author
Ripard Teg
Jerkasaurus Wrecks Inc.
Sedition.
#1 - 2015-05-04 19:37:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Ripard Teg
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.

aka Jester, who apparently was once Deemed Worthy To Wield The Banhammer to good effect.

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#2 - 2015-05-04 20:01:52 UTC
Ripard Teg wrote:
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.


This solves the TZ problem....how?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Jayne Fillon
#3 - 2015-05-04 20:05:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Jayne Fillon
Teckos Pech wrote:
Ripard Teg wrote:
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.


This solves the TZ problem....how?

It doesn't. They're not even remotely related.

The suggestion is sound, but neither the motivations for nor the benefits from such a change are related to timezones.

Can't shoot blues if you don't have any. Long Live NPSI.

Zafrena Tyrleon
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2015-05-04 20:09:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Zafrena Tyrleon
Teckos Pech wrote:
Ripard Teg wrote:
So today, we had a new EVE Online record: two major multi-billion ISK market speculation opportunities on the same day... and like virtually all market speculation opportunities in EVE, they were open to EUTZ players only. USTZ players that had to work, AUTZ players that were asleep? Locked out.

The second one today, the CA-3/CA-4 implant announcement, was particularly nasty because a few dozen people were out there with multi-billion buy orders that got themselves bent over a table by CCP today (no, I wasn't one, thank Heaven). Those poor souls won't be recouping their multi-billion ISK investments until EVE is 20 years old, if then. And in the case of the SKINs announcement and the BPO mineral doubling announcement, USTZ and AUTZ players were locked out of multi-trillion ISK market speculation opportunities.

So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers. As we saw today, even the short-term impact of this change would be minimal to non-existent. The market would correct within minutes. And it would give all TZs a chance to participate.


This solves the TZ problem....how?


It doesn't necessarily solve a problem with when things are announced so much as prevent other timezones from being completely screwed due to a seismic market shift that they are unable to respond to.

These announcements should happen during downtime, and all buy and sell orders relating to the items should be stripped from the market during maintenance.
Ripard Teg
Jerkasaurus Wrecks Inc.
Sedition.
#5 - 2015-05-04 20:18:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Ripard Teg
Jayne Fillon wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
This solves the TZ problem....how?

It doesn't. They're not even remotely related. The suggestion is sound, but neither the motivations for nor the benefits from such a change are related to timezones.

Fine, suggest another solution. Because there's no question the problem exists. I'm not exaggerating about the multi-trillion ISK potential of the BPO and SKINs changes. On the SKIN change alone, some of those SKINs changed prices by 3000% in less than an hour... an hour when most of USTZ was either asleep or on their way to work, and all of AUTZ was asleep.

aka Jester, who apparently was once Deemed Worthy To Wield The Banhammer to good effect.

elitatwo
Zansha Expansion
#6 - 2015-05-04 20:29:17 UTC
I have another idea for the market.bots:

Remove all blueprints from EVE, NPC stations provide everything, EVE fixed.

Eve Minions is recruiting.

This is the law of ship progression!

Aura sound-clips: Aura forever

Marsha Mallow
#7 - 2015-05-04 20:31:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Marsha Mallow
Ripard Teg wrote:
When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

Not supported.

You're making two different complaints here. Firstly that people need to be protected from their own greed by CCP in case of changes (when they should be smart enough in the first place to be aware this is a possibility and limit their exposure accordingly). Secondly that economic opportunities are being restricted from certain timezones due to when announcements are made.

Investing in the market is at players own risk. We don't need the introduction of nanny-state mechanics to protect people from losing out on their investments and speculation due to gameplay changes. Only an idiot would throw trillions at any market and expect it to be 'safe'. The whole point of speculative trading is the risk, it's not meant to be 'fair'.

The only item we have clear assurances from CCP as unique is the Yacht. Anyone dabbling in collectible/rarity release items knows there is a track record of re-releases. When the collectors edition was issued we were told that all of the items it contained would be made more widely available in subsequent releases. If people have several bilion tied up in CA-3 and 4s one would hope they have the sense not to put all of their ISK into it. If they're trading at that level they should have the sense to write it off as a 'win some/lose some' scenario and move on. It's not just traders at a disadvantage here - consider the players who bought and injected these at massively inflated prices in the last week - should they be issued a refund? Ye, don't open that door.

The timezone complaint I can understand to a degree, although I've rarely heard large scale speculators complain that they haven't been able to cash in. The shennanigans with SKINs seems to be a bit of a debacle at this point, and I'm not sure it's worth using as a model for further changes on this scale. The only solution I can think of is to randomise when announcements are made which will have a significant impact on the market, but even then somebody will miss out. It's the nature of this type of trading and it should be something experienced traders take into account.

Ripard Teg > For the morons in the room:

Sweets > U can dd my face any day

HTC NecoSino
Suddenly Carebears
#8 - 2015-05-04 20:47:35 UTC
I think making announcements at downtime would be more.. fair(?)
Zappity
New Eden Tank Testing Services
#9 - 2015-05-04 20:50:13 UTC
No. I made 2b on the module changes while I was asleep (AUTZ). I had planned and was prepared. If the opportunity is over in mere minutes then you really need to be set up beforehand.

Zappity's Adventures for a taste of lowsec and nullsec.

Ripard Teg
Jerkasaurus Wrecks Inc.
Sedition.
#10 - 2015-05-04 21:00:50 UTC
Marsha Mallow wrote:
The timezone complaint I can understand to a degree, although I've rarely heard large scale speculators complain that they haven't been able to cash in. The shennanigans with SKINs seems to be a bit of a debacle at this point, and I'm not sure it's worth using as a model for further changes on this scale. The only solution I can think of is to randomise when announcements are made which will have a significant impact on the market, but even then somebody will miss out. It's the nature of this type of trading and it should be something experienced traders take into account.

Random publication of market-affecting dev-blogs and -posts would be another perfectly acceptable solution.

But I find the CA-3/4 thing particularly aggravating because the market effect was 100% predictable. CCP had to know the people with multi-billion ISK orders for CA-3s/4s were going to get shafted... and CCP Falcon said the change was being announced to "prevent market skullduggery"! If it were anyone but Falcon, I would believe that line to be a massive troll. Even with it being Falcon's dev-blog, I'm not sure it wasn't.

I bring up SKINs because it's damned interesting to compare and contrast the two changes. When CCP announced the SKINs change, what did they do? They instantly stopped trading in the AUR market for SKINs, not at down-time, but at the moment the dev-blog was published (a few hours later). Apparently, the only people against whom you cannot market speculate are CCP.

aka Jester, who apparently was once Deemed Worthy To Wield The Banhammer to good effect.

Enya Sparhawk
Black Tea and Talons
#11 - 2015-05-04 21:05:07 UTC
Ripard Teg wrote:
So, here's a very simple fix which CCP can implement to make market speculation a little more fair across time zones:

When CCP is about to announce a change to module, part, or ship X, CCP should cancel all buy and sell orders for that module, part, or ship.

That puts control of commodities back in the hands of whom it quite literally belongs: the sellers.
Huh?? What a horrible idea...

You even contradict yourself by suggesting the control still belongs to the sellers.

John Maynard Keyes wrote:
"Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the situation is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation."

Fíorghrá: Grá na fírinne

Maireann croí éadrom i bhfad.

Bíonn súil le muir ach ní bhíonn súil le tír.

Is maith an scéalaí an aimsir.

When the lost ships of Greece finally return home...

Escobar Slim III
YOLOSWAGHASHTAGDOLLARBILLZSWIMMINGPOOLICECREAMS
#12 - 2015-05-04 21:48:13 UTC
I truly believe a nice and simple fix would be to make the announcments more of a player against player enviroment. For example this could be the tournament mode for the market players. It could be a gameshow style event where the ccp announce a few days in advance that x change is going to happen and every player of the market has a chance to enter to win the chance to win the chance of knowing the info before anybody else. The players can be invited to ccp teamspeak comms and are asked questions about the market and then they have to guess the clues from what the ccp has laid out as clues for the reveal. It could be like the hunger games but instead we can call it THE JITA GAMES. And a bit like those prize events where you can win a truck by keeping your hand on the truck until you pass out asleep the players have to stay on the teamspeak until they are last man woman surviving and then if they have the will to not logoff then they emerge as victorios and take home the info which they can use for their self or they're allice.
Michael Ignis Archangel
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#13 - 2015-05-04 21:54:29 UTC
One question: if you didn't want to buy it for that price, why did you place an order to buy it at that price?

If you're buying to later sell for a profit, you're not entitled to make money. Speculation is and should be dangerous.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#14 - 2015-05-04 22:41:27 UTC
Ripard Teg wrote:
Jayne Fillon wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
This solves the TZ problem....how?

It doesn't. They're not even remotely related. The suggestion is sound, but neither the motivations for nor the benefits from such a change are related to timezones.

Fine, suggest another solution. Because there's no question the problem exists. I'm not exaggerating about the multi-trillion ISK potential of the BPO and SKINs changes. On the SKIN change alone, some of those SKINs changed prices by 3000% in less than an hour... an hour when most of USTZ was either asleep or on their way to work, and all of AUTZ was asleep.


Look, I get your point, but all I see is a suggestion to minimize exposure for people...but exposure is actually part of the market.

So, you bring up a valid point, and then offer a suggestion that really doesn't address the point. Getting pissy about somebody pointing out the obvious is kinda ridiculous.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Phoenix Jones
Small-Arms Fire
#15 - 2015-05-04 22:43:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Phoenix Jones
Michael Ignis Archangel wrote:
One question: if you didn't want to buy it for that price, why did you place an order to buy it at that price?

If you're buying to later sell for a profit, you're not entitled to make money. Speculation is and should be dangerous.


Except there is absolutely no warning, foresight, notice, etc. there is no forecast of announcements (well be giving a gift tongue players in 2 days), would be enough for some people to stop some trades, but they can't even speculate when ccp will make the wind change.

Randomness is part of the game, but we aren't brokerage firms with 24 hour staff (minus the tradebots).

Now if this was some odd move to kill a couple of dozen tradebots who were buying high value implants, awesome move killing their wallet.

I doubt it was that.

Rip has a point, it's a pretty drastic move. Maybe something as simple as a forecast model would work. I'm not sure how you would forecast something like that, but I get Rips concern. I'd be mad as all hell if I had my investments in that implant (almost did). I was mad too when the ore changes came out (was at work). It's the hand that's dealt.

edit : Eve birthday... I guess you could have speculated something could happen... (Shrugs).

Yaay!!!!

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#16 - 2015-05-04 22:44:32 UTC
Ripard Teg wrote:
Apparently, the only people against whom you cannot market speculate are CCP.



Well no **** Sherlock. Nobody can speculate against people who have perfect (or at least complete) information and everyone else has imperfect/incomplete information.

Roll

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#17 - 2015-05-04 22:47:23 UTC
Marsha Mallow wrote:
The only solution I can think of is to randomise when announcements are made which will have a significant impact on the market, but even then somebody will miss out. It's the nature of this type of trading and it should be something experienced traders take into account.


I agree with this, randomizing will get around the TZ problem. Yes, in any given instance people will lose out, but lets not the perfect be the enemy of the good.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Ripard Teg
Jerkasaurus Wrecks Inc.
Sedition.
#18 - 2015-05-04 23:04:16 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
So, you bring up a valid point, and then offer a suggestion that really doesn't address the point. Getting pissy about somebody pointing out the obvious is kinda ridiculous.

Well, you're saying that it wouldn't address any of the point, which isn't true.

If CCP had cleared the market sell orders for the Aliastra ships before announcing the SKINs change, for instance, then the people who owned those Aliastra ships would have had the option to relist the ships at a couple hundred million ISK... instead of the 15-30 million ISK for which they they were taken for because they (for the most part) didn't have that option.

In the same way, had CCP cleared the market buy orders for the CA-3/4 implants this morning before announcing the CA-3/4 gift, then the people who had those buy orders out would have had the option of putting out new buy orders at a somewhat more sane price instead of getting gouged for billions of ISK because they (for the most part) didn't have that option.

In the first case, the people holding those Aliastra ships got unfairly gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions. In the second case, the people who had those buy orders out there got unfairly gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions.

That's the problem that I think should be solved, and why I think clearing buy/sell orders would solve it.

The fact that it's always EUTZ doing the gouging is a separate but related issue. You're suggesting another way to solve it, which is to spread the gouging around fairly to all TZs. I'm OK with that solution as well, even though I think it's not quite as useful a solution. Because at the end of the day, it's still players being gouged because of CCP actions rather than player actions.

aka Jester, who apparently was once Deemed Worthy To Wield The Banhammer to good effect.

Rowells
Blackwater USA Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#19 - 2015-05-04 23:05:59 UTC
A better idea would be to stagger the release of info they think will have major impact. It won't entirely solve the issue, but at least it's not centralized anymore.
unidenify
Deaf Armada
#20 - 2015-05-04 23:13:40 UTC
I do see your point about people get shafted in term of buy/sell order price vs announcement.\

But I don't have idea what we can do to prevent this. We do have measurement against insider info, but we also have to take risk in market speculation.
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