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Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#81 - 2015-04-27 03:33:47 UTC
Traedar wrote:
The Sarum Magnate is still available for 4.2M in Jita and is being converted to the new SKIN system. Anyone have any idea why its price wouldn't have soared by now?


A few things:

(1) There is a MASSIVE supply of these ships. Every player was given one not too long ago, and I think you get one of each exploration frigate with some of the free starter packs.

(2) It doesn't have the word "edition" in its name, and hasn't been new or interesting to many players in quite a long time. I know that's dumb, but I bet a lot of people used 'edition' as a search criteria for SKINs to speculate on.

(3) Its price was under a million isk not too long ago, so it's already spiked, but remains cheap.

Because supply is so huge, I think the 4 exploration frigate SKINs will be the cheapest in the market. I strongly believe they will be more expensive than at present - at least 10 million if not more - but nobody really knows how the demand will play out.

I've purchased quite a number as a result. I promise not to crash the market if you won't :)
Elvandari
Valheru industries
#82 - 2015-04-27 06:08:11 UTC
Coelomate Tian wrote:

(1) There is a MASSIVE supply of these ships. Every player was given one not too long ago, and I think you get one of each exploration frigate with some of the free starter packs.

(2) It doesn't have the word "edition" in its name, and hasn't been new or interesting to many players in quite a long time. I know that's dumb, but I bet a lot of people used 'edition' as a search criteria for SKINs to speculate on.


at 1) actually not everybody, there were 4 frigates and each player got only one type at random, also i believe that many of them were already destroyed. The main reason might be the point 2 you mentioned
Ruvin
Amarr Empire
#83 - 2015-04-27 08:18:56 UTC
sold too early rattlesnake victory edition . didnt bought a megathron in time ...

Rest is fine , odd but i didnt see a price increase on limited hauler skins from last year . Expected more demand in those ...
Bestower Tash-Murkon Edition
Tayra Wiyrkomi Edition
Iteron Inner Zone Shipping Edition
Mammoth Nefantar Edition

Oh well .

P.S they really should add more Khanid Skins .

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
Devilish Ledoux
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#84 - 2015-04-27 10:13:34 UTC
Ruvin wrote:
Rest is fine , odd but i didnt see a price increase on limited hauler skins from last year . Expected more demand in those ...
Bestower Tash-Murkon Edition
Tayra Wiyrkomi Edition
Iteron Inner Zone Shipping Edition
Mammoth Nefantar Edition

Oh well .


I think that's largely due to them being lesser known giveaways. How popular they'll be as SKINs is also a little hard go gauge.

Quote:
P.S they really should add more Khanid Skins .


Yessssssssssssss
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#85 - 2015-04-27 14:29:35 UTC
Extremely important point:

On Tuesday morning, it's likely the in-game price history for these items vanishes. The item "Dominix Quafe Edition" is removed from the game, and turned into a plain Dominix and a SKIN license, so there will be no way to see what it was trading at prior to the patch without using out of game tools.

For some items this could be huge. The skinned exploration frigates we've been discussing and existing frigate SKINs from the Aurum store are good examples: they were cheap as **** for months/years, but under the new permanent system the "cheapest" Aurum SKIN will be "worth" around 130 million isk, so buyers without background in the price of the items might think they're a steal if they see ANY permanent SKIN for "only" 100 million, or 65 million, or whatever.

Supply and demand will then come into play of course, and if the supply dumps on the market as people try to cash out, the price will get driven down. But the lack of background information available from the market for these items leads me to believe higher than expected prices could be supported. I wouldn't be shocked if you can buy an Inner Zone Shipping Imicus for 10 million isk today and sell it for 100 million tomorrow. Buyer who hasn't been paying attention is happy to get a SKIN license for cheaper than any other SKIN license (gateway drug!), seller is happy at the massive profit margin.

I'm not saying it's certain or without risk, but this is a pretty unique combination of circumstances that might make it possible.
Cista2
EVE Museum
#86 - 2015-04-27 17:18:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
Coelomate Tian wrote:
buyers without background in the price of the items might think they're a steal if they see ANY permanent SKIN for "only" 100 million, or 65 million, or whatever.

If you want to sell NES store skins for 65 mil, just set up a contract to me today :)

The prices are already quite "there" you know

My channel: "Signatures" -
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#87 - 2015-04-27 17:30:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Coelomate Tian
Cista2 wrote:
Coelomate Tian wrote:
buyers without background in the price of the items might think they're a steal if they see ANY permanent SKIN for "only" 100 million, or 65 million, or whatever.

Let me know if you find any of the NES store skins for 65 mil today :)


The prices are already quite "there" you know


I can think of at least 5 things you could buy right now for much less than 65 million isk that will become a permanent SKIN tomorrow.

That's exactly my point - you're right that the NES store SKINs will all around 130 million isk minimum, assuming no artificially inflated supply from pre-patch stockpiling. That implies a price point for SKINs that aren't or won't be available in the NES store, some of which are presently much cheaper...
Cista2
EVE Museum
#88 - 2015-04-27 18:33:10 UTC
I see what you mean. I want to say that you are underestimating the average player, but who knows :)

My channel: "Signatures" -
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#89 - 2015-04-27 18:44:04 UTC
Coelomate Tian wrote:
Extremely important point:

On Tuesday morning, it's likely the in-game price history for these items vanishes. The item "Dominix Quafe Edition" is removed from the game, and turned into a plain Dominix and a SKIN license, so there will be no way to see what it was trading at prior to the patch without using out of game tools.

For some items this could be huge. The skinned exploration frigates we've been discussing and existing frigate SKINs from the Aurum store are good examples: they were cheap as **** for months/years, but under the new permanent system the "cheapest" Aurum SKIN will be "worth" around 130 million isk, so buyers without background in the price of the items might think they're a steal if they see ANY permanent SKIN for "only" 100 million, or 65 million, or whatever.

Supply and demand will then come into play of course, and if the supply dumps on the market as people try to cash out, the price will get driven down. But the lack of background information available from the market for these items leads me to believe higher than expected prices could be supported. I wouldn't be shocked if you can buy an Inner Zone Shipping Imicus for 10 million isk today and sell it for 100 million tomorrow. Buyer who hasn't been paying attention is happy to get a SKIN license for cheaper than any other SKIN license (gateway drug!), seller is happy at the massive profit margin.

I'm not saying it's certain or without risk, but this is a pretty unique combination of circumstances that might make it possible.


This will be even more extreme if the SKINS be grouped all under one section on the market - and i hope they will be.

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Herman Menderchuck
AscendoTech Research and Development
#90 - 2015-04-27 18:48:17 UTC
Won't the settling point for all NES skins simply be the conversion of ISK ---> AUR?

Let's use some outdated, round numbers for the sake of discussion:

PLEX Cost: 800mil

1 PLEX = 3500 AUR

1mil ISK = 4.375 AUR

Thus, a 4300 NES purchase = ~982mil ISK

Does anyone think prices would sink lower than this due to demand being low or stockpiles driving them down?
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#91 - 2015-04-27 18:57:26 UTC
arabella blood wrote:

This will be even more extreme if the SKINS be grouped all under one section on the market - and i hope they will be.


They are on the test server. Even more interesting, you can see potential SKINs for a ship when you're inside of it, and even buy NES store SKINs directly that way, so there will be a LOT of visibility for SKINs tomorrow that doesn't exist today.

Herman Menderchuck wrote:
Won't the settling point for all NES skins simply be the conversion of ISK ---> AUR?

Let's use some outdated, round numbers for the sake of discussion:

PLEX Cost: 800mil

1 PLEX = 3500 AUR

1mil ISK = 4.375 AUR

Thus, a 4300 NES purchase = ~982mil ISK

Does anyone think prices would sink lower than this due to demand being low or stockpiles driving them down?


That math matches mine. For skinned ships that already exist we will see very large stockpiles go on sale tomorrow, and competition will drive prices down below the expected equilibrium point. Some frigate skins were a few million isk last week but will be on sale for a billion isk at the NES store, surely many holders will settle for more modest returns.

On the other hand, for the new SKINs introduced tomorrow, they may sell at a premium temporarily since some people will want their cool Archon SKIN and want it now, to hell with buying PLEX or Aurum and figuring out the conversion process.

Price over time for all NES store SKINs will move towards the isk <-> PLEX <-> Aurum conversion rate, but how fast it gets there will depend on demand and how deep people's pockets are.

The wild cards are the ships you can't buy from the NES store and/or are no longer available. Again I believe the ~130 million isk 'minimum' price for an Aurum SKIN license will give context to the market, but we'll see.

The popularity of cosmetic items in other games (hats, anybody?) coupled with CCP's solid implementation (good looks, permanent, etc.) leads me to believe the market will be thriving.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#92 - 2015-04-27 19:08:11 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Herman Menderchuck wrote:
Won't the settling point for all NES skins simply be the conversion of ISK ---> AUR?

Let's use some outdated, round numbers for the sake of discussion:

PLEX Cost: 800mil

1 PLEX = 3500 AUR

1mil ISK = 4.375 AUR

Thus, a 4300 NES purchase = ~982mil ISK


Well, for starters AUR =/= PLEX, as AUR now enjoys a 15% average exchange rate advantage.

The correct formula is 845,000,000 / 3500 / 1.15 * 4300 = 902 mil, or 209k ISK per 1 AUR vs paying 242k via PLEX , or 201.75 AUR per $ in the case of 4,035 AURUM Package vs. 175 AUR via PLEX - http://web.ccpgamescdn.com/newssystem/media/67122/1/AUR.png

Quote:
Does anyone think prices would sink lower than this due to demand being low or stockpiles driving them down?


On the least popular SKINs, yes. Smile

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#93 - 2015-04-27 20:00:53 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Herman Menderchuck wrote:
Won't the settling point for all NES skins simply be the conversion of ISK ---> AUR?

Let's use some outdated, round numbers for the sake of discussion:

PLEX Cost: 800mil

1 PLEX = 3500 AUR

1mil ISK = 4.375 AUR

Thus, a 4300 NES purchase = ~982mil ISK


Well, for starters AUR =/= PLEX, as AUR now enjoys a 15% average exchange rate advantage.

The correct formula is 845,000,000 / 3500 / 1.15 * 4300 = 902 mil, or 209k ISK per 1 AUR vs paying 242k via PLEX , or 201.75 AUR per $ in the case of 4,035 AURUM Package vs. 175 AUR via PLEX - http://web.ccpgamescdn.com/newssystem/media/67122/1/AUR.png



It is interesting that buying Aurum directly and converting PLEX have different exchange rates, but you have to consider the fact that there are already a large number of PLEX in the market from stockpiling. Only CCP is likely to know how much fresh Aurum is purchased (or fresh PLEX is purchased when and as prices seem attractive to those who want isk rather than SKINs or clothing), but both rates are valid entry points for analyzing the situation.

It's easier to speak confidently of the price coming from PLEX, because if prices get out of line (i.e. if SKINs trade at a premium such that you can earn more isk breaking a PLEX into Aurum, buying SKINs, and selling SKINs than you could just selling the PLEX), it will be simple for people to dig into their PLEX stashes and do just that, arbitraging the price down. So we can pretty confidently predict the Aurum SKINs will cost no more than that equilibrium point, at least over the medium to long term. It's less clear how much rising SKIN prices could actually influence people to open their pocketbooks and purchase Aurum for fiat currency.

arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#94 - 2015-04-27 20:08:28 UTC
Well, since you all very confident, i raise you 1 "FILL MY ORDER": I dare you, I double dare youBig smile

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#95 - 2015-04-27 20:12:49 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Coelomate Tian wrote:
GankYou wrote:
Herman Menderchuck wrote:
Won't the settling point for all NES skins simply be the conversion of ISK ---> AUR?

Let's use some outdated, round numbers for the sake of discussion:

PLEX Cost: 800mil

1 PLEX = 3500 AUR

1mil ISK = 4.375 AUR

Thus, a 4300 NES purchase = ~982mil ISK


Well, for starters AUR =/= PLEX, as AUR now enjoys a 15% average exchange rate advantage.

The correct formula is 845,000,000 / 3500 / 1.15 * 4300 = 902 mil, or 209k ISK per 1 AUR vs paying 242k via PLEX , or 201.75 AUR per $ in the case of 4,035 AURUM Package vs. 175 AUR via PLEX - http://web.ccpgamescdn.com/newssystem/media/67122/1/AUR.png



It is interesting that buying Aurum directly and converting PLEX have different exchange rates


That is intended.

Interesting times™ are coming.

http://evenews24.com/2015/01/22/csm-9-winter-summit-day-1/

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#96 - 2015-04-27 20:14:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Coelomate Tian
arabella blood wrote:
Well, since you all very confident, i raise you 1 "FILL MY ORDER": I dare you, I double dare youBig smile


I'm all set - thanks though ;)
Cista2
EVE Museum
#97 - 2015-04-28 09:19:15 UTC
And so it begins / continues, 3-2-1 go :)

My channel: "Signatures" -
Ruvin
Amarr Empire
#98 - 2015-04-28 09:42:31 UTC
I got another huge bunch of ships yesterday ...
Changes to skins were known . But i still count on the lot of players who dont read blogs or follow news )

In the end for me it was :
1 skins anouncement (pure speculation)
2 chaos server leak of the full permanent skin list
3 CCP confirmation of some crucial info
4 Fanfest CCP confirmation
5 Blog with all details
6 the day before patch (and ingame update)

Best margins for profit were at point 2 3 . (when some details were known, many not yet confirmed , little people knew about it and it made great spot for speculation)

The things im not 100% sure for example are quafe catalysts .... They were 100 then 300 , then 600 . I always thought it was "too much" but i thought the same about megatron , and was wrong , so in the end gaved up and bought a few of those . Hopefully they will be still worth it .

Another mistake i made but quite cheap were the pirate skins ... Got many of those , but 30 days skins is something i didnt expected .... S... H.... i guess .

Best investment so far was 4 haulers , i chcked the price i bought them for 100 milions . Sold a Nefantar mamonth for 1.2 bills .
(and reinvested in quafe ships )

Worst was i guess Rattlesnake victory edition , expensive only for 30% profit while getting more cheaper stuff wouldve been lot better .


I expect the prices to get higher today tomorrow , i dont expect anything to get cheaper at this point . (Talking about the unique ones)

I think today there is a profit to be made in buying plex converting to aur and selling some of the new skins . Will be fast before prices even out , but for those fast enough its possible .


I know that if someone is a trader , keeping money in assets isnt the best choice , those are basically dead weigth . Using them is a lot better , so i expect some to sell theyre collection the next days , make a nice profit and go on .
Anyone considering keeping them for longer ? Like a long time investment ?

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#99 - 2015-04-28 10:18:46 UTC
Ruvin wrote:
I got another huge bunch of ships yesterday ...
Changes to skins were known . But i still count on the lot of players who dont read blogs or follow news )

In the end for me it was :
1 skins anouncement (pure speculation)
2 chaos server leak of the full permanent skin list
3 CCP confirmation of some crucial info
4 Fanfest CCP confirmation
5 Blog with all details
6 the day before patch (and ingame update)

Best margins for profit were at point 2 3 . (when some details were known, many not yet confirmed , little people knew about it and it made great spot for speculation)

The things im not 100% sure for example are quafe catalysts .... They were 100 then 300 , then 600 . I always thought it was "too much" but i thought the same about megatron , and was wrong , so in the end gaved up and bought a few of those . Hopefully they will be still worth it .

Another mistake i made but quite cheap were the pirate skins ... Got many of those , but 30 days skins is something i didnt expected .... S... H.... i guess .

Best investment so far was 4 haulers , i chcked the price i bought them for 100 milions . Sold a Nefantar mamonth for 1.2 bills .
(and reinvested in quafe ships )

Worst was i guess Rattlesnake victory edition , expensive only for 30% profit while getting more cheaper stuff wouldve been lot better .


I expect the prices to get higher today tomorrow , i dont expect anything to get cheaper at this point . (Talking about the unique ones)

I think today there is a profit to be made in buying plex converting to aur and selling some of the new skins . Will be fast before prices even out , but for those fast enough its possible .


I know that if someone is a trader , keeping money in assets isnt the best choice , those are basically dead weigth . Using them is a lot better , so i expect some to sell theyre collection the next days , make a nice profit and go on .
Anyone considering keeping them for longer ? Like a long time investment ?


I would be keeping them for around 10-12 months. You can use them as collateral anyway so its no big deal Liquid isk wise.

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#100 - 2015-04-28 13:37:25 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Prices haven't changed much, but there some with weak bladders - Once the stock clears, the exchange rate will support the market on most popular SKINs.

GankYou wrote:

P.S. A little side project - http://i.imgur.com/LGdAsRp.png They've been 25 mil on average throughout Eve's history. /hattip to Coelomate Smile


When in doubt - double down:

http://i.imgur.com/G1eMDwh.png
http://i.imgur.com/eA9vd6x.png

New CONCORD LP store prices are 37,500 LP and 25 mil ISK - http://i.imgur.com/7U9ILUm.png

I paid the guys 4,000 ISK per LP.

Time to start distributing inventory around New Eden. Blink

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components