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arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#61 - 2015-04-25 13:16:24 UTC
Rain6637 wrote:
Ok, checking your post history confirms it's not just me who hasn't seen you in a year. No one has. Arabella.


I am back baby :)
But it seems you are a goon now....whats up with that?

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#62 - 2015-04-25 13:22:28 UTC
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#63 - 2015-04-25 13:48:41 UTC
Rain6637 wrote:
it always was. "Bee" = Rain in Korean (don't tell anyone)


No it isn't Cool

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#64 - 2015-04-25 13:56:55 UTC
Yep, you're right, it isn't. Nothing to see here.

Dem SKINs eh?

Help, I can't download EVE

President of the Commissar Kate Fanclub

PLEX: A Giffen good? (It's 1B?)
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#65 - 2015-04-25 14:11:19 UTC
Rain6637 wrote:
Yep, you're right, it isn't. Nothing to see here.

Dem SKINs eh?


I am also a goon spy...shhhhhh.... Roll

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#66 - 2015-04-25 15:52:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Coelomate Tian
I'm surprised how quickly prices have dropped on some skinned ships and skin BPCs. My only explanation is that speculators are trading between one another but those who actually want SKINs aren't paying much attention yet, and the people who have the capital to make large speculative plays are happy with their holdings if not straight up out of isk.

Some prices are (still) absurd mind you, like the machinaw ore development edition (one in Jita for 3 bil and one in jita for almost 7 bil... no thank you), but plenty have already fallen into the territory where I'd consider buying heavily if I hadn't already invested so much capital.

The SKIN system going live Tuesday is going to be an absurd frenzy. Demand for the new SKINs will hit the market all at once while supply starts at zero, and that sudden demand surge will be met largely by converting PLEX into Aurum, which will increase demand for PLEX. If that demand pushes up the price of PLEX meaningfully it will also push up "fair" prices for all SKINs, even before a premium for getting them quickly, and if that happens it could turn into a speculative feedback loop...

Meanwhile a large number of these SKINs are cool/desirable/collectible/limited edition, meaning the sky is the limit if you have an investment horizon measured in months or years instead of days.

Next week is going to be crazy. I'm sure I'll lose money on some of my trades and earn less than I expect on others, but I think there will be ample opportunity for anybody who has been paying attention to make a crazy amount of isk.
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#67 - 2015-04-25 16:01:21 UTC
Coelomate Tian wrote:
I'm surprised how quickly prices have dropped on some skinned ships and skin BPCs. My only explanation is that speculators are trading between one another but those who actually want SKINs aren't paying much attention yet, and the people who have the capital to make large speculative plays are happy with their holdings if not straight up out of isk.

Some prices are (still) absurd mind you, like the machinaw ore development edition (one in Jita for 3 bil and one in jita for almost 7 bil... no thank you), but plenty have already fallen into the territory where I'd consider buying heavily if I hadn't already invested so much capital.

The SKIN system going live Tuesday is going to be an absurd frenzy. Demand for the new SKINs will hit the market all at once while supply starts at zero, and that sudden demand surge will be met largely by converting PLEX into Aurum, which will increase demand for PLEX. If that demand pushes up the price of PLEX meaningfully it will also push up "fair" prices for all SKINs, even before a premium for getting them quickly, and if that happens it could turn into a speculative feedback loop...

Meanwhile a large number of these SKINs are cool/desirable/collectible/limited edition, meaning the sky is the limit if you have an investment horizon measured in months or years instead of days.

Next week is going to be crazy. I'm sure I'll lose money on some of my trades and earn less than I expect on others, but I think there will be ample opportunity for anybody who has been paying attention to make a crazy amount of isk.


I think you'e over thinking it a little. Really the frenzy was this week. The skips are already being treated as skins. I do agree that some are still definitely under priced and there is still opportunity here.
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#68 - 2015-04-25 16:08:27 UTC
They're already being treated as SKINs by those who follow dev blogs, care about SKINs, and have a presence in the market. The data from CCP shows time and time again that the player base is much deeper than those who are active participants in the flow of information though. I believe a lot of people will wake up Tuesday and go "cool! SKINs!" and start researching/buying.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#69 - 2015-04-25 16:22:39 UTC
I greatly welcome the complete Liberation of the Most Holy SKIN from the corporeal shackles of the Tech 1 hulls, that are ever-decreasing in value with Mexallon, Pyerite and Tritanium being the base, unclean, anchors that they are.

The refund of broker fees on active market orders is also most welcome. Bear

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#70 - 2015-04-25 17:08:37 UTC
Coelomate Tian wrote:
They're already being treated as SKINs by those who follow dev blogs, care about SKINs, and have a presence in the market. The data from CCP shows time and time again that the player base is much deeper than those who are active participants in the flow of information though. I believe a lot of people will wake up Tuesday and go "cool! SKINs!" and start researching/buying.


And still i think that even with the "rush" that will be next week - it will take almost a year to pass the current bubble prices.

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Cista2
EVE Museum
#71 - 2015-04-25 18:19:41 UTC
Sell! Sell! Sell!

My channel: "Signatures" -
Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#72 - 2015-04-25 21:38:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Rain6637
arabella blood wrote:
Coelomate Tian wrote:
They're already being treated as SKINs by those who follow dev blogs, care about SKINs, and have a presence in the market. The data from CCP shows time and time again that the player base is much deeper than those who are active participants in the flow of information though. I believe a lot of people will wake up Tuesday and go "cool! SKINs!" and start researching/buying.


And still i think that even with the "rush" that will be next week - it will take almost a year to pass the current bubble prices.

6 months. Give the prices 6 months then see how you feel about holding.

We'll also see Quafe Domis and Megathrons leave the gate neck and neck, which should be interesting. Quafe Domis cost 13x more than Quafe Megas to create. ($10 twitch stream vs $130 annual sub, not counting EVE Vegas vs Fanfest attendance)

Also worth holding for the Domi redesign, whenever that is released. The Mega already blew its redesign load a year ago.

So. Whether you want to look at it by prestige (Fanfest > EVE Vegas), cost ($130 > $10) or looks (New art deco design vs flat-thron), the Domi is the favorite.

Of course right now the mega is ahead in trading price, due to having a bit more time to mature. I'm really looking forward to seeing how SKIN consumption will shake things up, since applying a SKIN is effectively the same thing as destroying it when it comes to market supply.

Help, I can't download EVE

President of the Commissar Kate Fanclub

PLEX: A Giffen good? (It's 1B?)
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#73 - 2015-04-25 22:49:09 UTC  |  Edited by: HeXxploiT
Quote:


since applying a SKIN is effectively the same thing as destroying it when it comes to market supply.


Yes but factor in also that that character also exudes themselves from all future purchases for that product. With a ship the pilot may come back repeatedly to make a purchase but with a skin they will not. So yes the skin may never again return to the marketplace but neither will the consumer. I'm sure there's an interesting algorithm here.
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#74 - 2015-04-25 22:58:08 UTC
The first few hours will be great, since all existing market orders will go down during the transition. Supply will trickle back as people log in, and new SKINs will trickle onto the market as the first purchases for aurum are made.

Speculators will probably be flying their Quafe Domis around the Jita undock and advertising the cool new SKIN system in local... it will be fun.
Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#75 - 2015-04-26 00:44:41 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:
Quote:


since applying a SKIN is effectively the same thing as destroying it when it comes to market supply.


Yes but factor in also that that character also exudes themselves from all future purchases for that product. With a ship the pilot may come back repeatedly to make a purchase but with a skin they will not. So yes the skin may never again return to the marketplace but neither will the consumer. I'm sure there's an interesting algorithm here.

That's a good point regarding consumers, but I think the impact on arbitrageurs is far more significant in comparison.

Help, I can't download EVE

President of the Commissar Kate Fanclub

PLEX: A Giffen good? (It's 1B?)
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#76 - 2015-04-26 04:53:24 UTC
Rain6637 wrote:
arabella blood wrote:
Coelomate Tian wrote:
They're already being treated as SKINs by those who follow dev blogs, care about SKINs, and have a presence in the market. The data from CCP shows time and time again that the player base is much deeper than those who are active participants in the flow of information though. I believe a lot of people will wake up Tuesday and go "cool! SKINs!" and start researching/buying.


And still i think that even with the "rush" that will be next week - it will take almost a year to pass the current bubble prices.

6 months. Give the prices 6 months then see how you feel about holding.

We'll also see Quafe Domis and Megathrons leave the gate neck and neck, which should be interesting. Quafe Domis cost 13x more than Quafe Megas to create. ($10 twitch stream vs $130 annual sub, not counting EVE Vegas vs Fanfest attendance)

Also worth holding for the Domi redesign, whenever that is released. The Mega already blew its redesign load a year ago.

So. Whether you want to look at it by prestige (Fanfest > EVE Vegas), cost ($130 > $10) or looks (New art deco design vs flat-thron), the Domi is the favorite.

Of course right now the mega is ahead in trading price, due to having a bit more time to mature. I'm really looking forward to seeing how SKIN consumption will shake things up, since applying a SKIN is effectively the same thing as destroying it when it comes to market supply.


I think the Domi is behind because its less "cool". And i don't think any redisgn will help fix that shoe style, unless they will do a complete new design.

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Cista2
EVE Museum
#77 - 2015-04-26 05:06:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
Coelomate Tian wrote:
That's a good point regarding consumers

It would be a good point (that consumers will no longer buy more than one), if they bought more than one before.
But they didn't. A "normal" pilot does not buy a Megathron Quafe, have it blown up, then just go down to buy another one.
Speculators do, but nothing will change there :)


Rain6637 wrote:
new SKINs will trickle onto the market as the first purchases for aurum are made

And who will put those new purchases on the market, will you? The market prices on all these ships will already be way under the aurum buy price for the next year or so. Buying even more skins from the store would give you a huge loss :)

Nevertheless, I predict the prices will go down next week. Why? Because some speculators will start panic selling when they see that the frigates they bought for 200 million isk are not going over that price level.

My channel: "Signatures" -
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#78 - 2015-04-26 11:41:43 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Rain6637 wrote:

Of course right now the mega is ahead in trading price, due to having a bit more time to mature. I'm really looking forward to seeing how SKIN consumption will shake things up, since applying a SKIN is effectively the same thing as destroying it when it comes to market supply.


That is not the case.

The Dominix total supply is five times more, than that of the Quafe Megathron. I've dumped my Domis quite a while ago, and instead opted out for 2,000% RoI vs. 300%. Blink

In two years time someone might also get 1,000% on the Dominixes, provided no comparable SKIN is released on the NES store for this ship type. Doesn't have to be blue. Smile

P.S. Well, snap. Didn't review the new Battleship SKIN additions,

Quote:
Battleship Gallente Dominix Inner Zone Shipping SKIN (Permanent) 3455
Battleship Gallente Dominix Syndicate SKIN (Permanent) 1540
Battleship Gallente Megathron Inner Zone Shipping SKIN (Permanent) 2390
Battleship Gallente Megathron Syndicate SKIN (Permanent) 2390


The Syndicate one is nominally valued at 323 mil ISK. Blink

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#79 - 2015-04-26 15:12:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Coelomate Tian
Cista2 wrote:

Coelomate Tian wrote:
new SKINs will trickle onto the market as the first purchases for aurum are made

And who will put those new purchases on the market, will you? The market prices on all these ships will already be way under the aurum buy price for the next year or so. Buying even more skins from the store would give you a huge loss :.


This discussion is about the newly released SKINs - i.e. the ones that don't exist until the patch comes out Tuesday (Quafe Nyx is my favorite example) and so can't be stockpiled and won't exist unless people buy them with Aurum. And yes, I expect I might well be buying them and putting them on the market, because I expect there will be a premium for at least the first few hours.
Traedar
InterStellar Trading Syndicate
#80 - 2015-04-27 02:18:46 UTC
The Sarum Magnate is still available for 4.2M in Jita and is being converted to the new SKIN system. Anyone have any idea why its price wouldn't have soared by now?