Market Discussions

Indeed. My gut tells me that CCP will try to recreate the mining hay-day from way back, where Null mining was worth 70 up to a hundred-something ISK/hour. The difference now is that alliance manufacturing infrastructure has matured. So instead of bringing it all back to sell in Empire (hay-day), they'll have the capacity to use most of it. As such, I expect for the majority of high-sec's Mega/Zyd will probably come from renter space, and the rest to be filled by Low-sec corps (large enough to have a buffer zone) in addition to freelancers ninja mining in Low and W-space IF... CCP can find the sweet spot where the price is high enough for the risk.

The problem I'm having is how to capitalize. I didn't have a stash of Mega/Zyd. :( Is there somewhere to get data on what and how much Low/Null gets from High and how much is produced there? Those with a good understanding of alliance logistics are the people who stand to capitalize the most on the market's reactions.

I thought about investing in POSs, but the huge unknowns for the upcoming Structure and Sov changes put too many unknowns into the equation.

BPOs will probably be more heavily traded and moved to null.

Other than that, is there a spreadsheet somewhere that lists mineral ingredients by BPO? The only safe bet is to expect manufactured items with little to no Mega/Zyd to come down in price?

Sad but all too true. Tried it a couple of times myself, same results as the poster.

Regarding the post you linked on the other site EVE Online isn't really about solo-players and you won't get the most benefit out of the game if you play it that way no matter which sec status system you reside in.

I don't think CCP would convert BPOs to materials as it would upset the enconomy too greatly just adding loads of stuff out of nowhere. An ISK reimbursement seems unlikely as well, but if they do go that way, all people will lose is the research time.

That being said, a straight swap would be the most likely (medium tower BPO ---> medium structure BPO, etc.) as I can imagine the prices will be around the same. There is supposed to be an XL structure as well, which would mean NO one would have that particular BPO ahead of time.

Supply and demand drives markets whether its speculators in the middle or just producer and consumer. So the lower prices either means people have less demand, or there's too much supply. Lots of people choose to run multiple accounts to make their mining easier. Lots of other people choose to go into the ore/mining market and then sell their goods for low prices. People either don't know better, or are resistant to raising their prices, because they want high liquidity for their goods and cant "afford" to wait for market prices to get better. They want that ISK now to do something with it. The problem is similar to the problem of energy or water conservation; if you believe everyone else is wasting, you won't bother trying to conserve because you're just a drop in the ocean.

Maybe Prisoner's Dilemma is more accurate, and I haven't played in the market very long, but it seems like something is keeping smalltime miners destitute. We all feel that mining sucks for isk gains, and whether its those types that run 10 ships on one computer which create competition to drive prices down for people that only have one account and one miner character, or that people in that profession are constantly underselling themselves because of ignorance, or market fear, or need for high turnover and isk, whatever the reason, mining has always been the red-headed stepchild to mission running. I thought they tried to nerf mission running heavily recently with loot and reprocess nerfs and mission runners were very upset about that. They might have to deal with a similar income to miners or something.

Why are supercaps going to be marginalized? That would suck.

How long will the market be disrupted by this change?

It seems prices were getting stabilized after the crius changes. Now there will be a price advantage for manufacturers who had a big stockpile of megacyte and zydrine at the old prices & I'm guessing there is a lot of building of items that require megacyte and zydrine before the required amounts double.

Won't this lead to a lot of future posts, "Why are ____ selling for so much less than I can build them?"

With how close the buy and sell prices are these days, it doesn't make sense to create a sell order. I was actually in this situation, where I had 900 million worth of compressed high-sec ores and the difference between buy and sell was 40-60 million. So, as an experiment, I put it up on the market. It took about a month. So why would anyone do that when they could start making 15% + profit now, instead of waiting to get that 840 million a month later?

This analogy does not apply to either Megacyte or Zydrine.

Technetium circa early 2012, perhaps, but not those two due to 1) Abudance; 2) no effective means of restricting supply; 3) loose conglomeration of renters & freelancers being the procurers, because of point one, and 4) Relatively low production input requirements.



The people who mine these ores do not have tens of billions in assets/liquid ISK to sit back & enjoy fine Zydrine wine, otherwise they wouldn't be mining in the first place. That's one.

Two is: The sheer amount of potential ABCs volume available, makes even a slight dump on the market develop into panic-selling.

Three: At no point is such a scenario possible, where withholding sales would constitute even a modest rise in the price of either Megacyte or Zydrine due to, once again, overabundance.

And lastly, their current input in manufacturing is small relative to other minerals.



In such a scenario, the person who is selling first, sells best.

What you're looking for is Technetium, or Dysprosium as the diamonds of Eve.

During the height of the BoB war the price of Dysprosium was very high due to almost complete destruction of production capacity in the Delve region. Immediately after, over a period of three months, as more new towers came online, prices fell around 14-17% from the peaks of the war, before selling off sharply in October of 2009 on the news that some Dyspro T2 production inputs would be reduced and redirected elsewhere, along with boost to Alchemy - making it possible to create the unrefined product of normal reaction involving Dysprosium, by substituting it with an R8 moon material at a 5x exchange rate vs. 20x previously.

Dyspro distribution: http://i.imgur.com/y7MZHqw.png?1

There may, or may not have been a cartel during the time leading up to 2009 Dominion update.

Price had collapsed 95% over the course of the next three years, going as low as 10k ISK p/u, before showing signs of life, courtesy of Odyssey expansion launched Summer 2013, which introduced four new Composites, aimed at rebalancing R32/R64 overall demand. In the case of Dysprosium, it is the Nonlinear Metamaterials Composite advanced material - added as new requirement to some blueprints, such as the manufacturing of Scalar Capacitor Units - used in all Caldari T2 ships; Capital Scalar Capacitor Units & Capital Quantum Microprocessors, needed for the production of the Rhea Jump Freighter. The three other Composites are all racially "linked" in a similar manner.

Oddysey also changed some T2 manufacturing inputs in favour of Dysprosium, and other R64s, which had been under-used, at the expense of Technetium.

The story with Technetium, is a story for another time.

Dysprosium has since retraced 49% of the levels seen during the Second Great Eve War.

EvE is real.

And people used to be paid 12 cents to lose fingers in the U.S. until worker's rights. If people valued their own time more than 1 million isk every few hours, they'd take up other work until the lack of minerals raised prices to coax them back. No pyramid scheming required, just players learning not to be taken advantage of.

The problem comes back to people choosing to go into a job market that has poor payout because everyone else wants to be paid shittily too.

The way people are choosing right now seems very Kafkaesque.

TLDR: You're wrong (in multiple posts) because you don't seem to be thinking things through or explaining with sufficient logical detail. Before posting proposals, please step through them with real-world situations (in detail) looking for inconsistencies and explain the logical steps you've used to reach your conclusions.

Khorvek, your argument seems to be the equivalent of one of the American Republican party's main assertions about poor people, "If the poor don't want to stay poor, then they should just work harder (or smarter)." (Then insert a line saying they should just do one simple thing.) As it turns out though, working harder does very little (except lose fingers more quickly) and becoming educated to a point where you understand how to best make use of the (job or trading) market's intricacies is costly and unguided so that your goal (understanding how to maximize ISK/hour) may not match up to the educational path you follow to look for answers. Sitting from where you are, with all your experience, the solutions seem obvious and simple. Your line of reasoning essentially stops at "If they want to stop being poor, then they should just stop doing things in a way that keep them poor." While that is true at a high level, it is also so terribly wrong when you look at the details.

To put it in mathematical terms, there's an equation (game mechanics/players/decisions/market) and the solution (where an outcome is that miner ISK/hour is low). You've proposed that a better solution can be attained by replacing thousands of players' varying levels of knowledge and situations for you and your perspective/knowledge (with situations dismissed). From a high level, there seems to be nothing wrong with doing that because the math equation works (as long as all miners act like a hive-minded version of Marx's utopian communists). However, the basic scientific method says that A) The equation's components must match up to verifiable observation and B) The solution must make a prediction that can be verified.

If everything we know about human psychology, sociology, and free markets says that the components of your equation won't happen, we have no reason to take you seriously.