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CCP Rise newbie stats

First post
Author
Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#361 - 2015-04-02 20:26:38 UTC
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Yes, a bad hypothesis.

Why not simply asked newbies that are 15 day olds, "Why are you quitting?"


He really is this ignorant, folks.

What do you think the outgoing survey is for, may I ask? Just to ask them what kinds of Gummi Bears they enjoy?


The red ones are obviously better.

On a different note, what would possibly happen if someone made a ganking campaign just outside of newbie starter systems?


Apparently no new players would ever quit the game.

Mr Epeen Cool
Unezka Turigahl
Det Som Engang Var
#362 - 2015-04-02 20:28:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Unezka Turigahl
Eve Solecist wrote:
And "Dots" is the cutest name ever! =^_^=


Dots is a Sibyyl knock-off. And a noob. Gank her out of the game!
Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#363 - 2015-04-02 20:30:25 UTC
Mr Epeen wrote:
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Yes, a bad hypothesis.

Why not simply asked newbies that are 15 day olds, "Why are you quitting?"


He really is this ignorant, folks.

What do you think the outgoing survey is for, may I ask? Just to ask them what kinds of Gummi Bears they enjoy?


The red ones are obviously better.

On a different note, what would possibly happen if someone made a ganking campaign just outside of newbie starter systems?


Apparently no new players would ever quit the game.

Mr Epeen Cool


I'm pretty sure nobody said getting ganked gave you a 100% retention rate but what I wonder is if the retention rate of the ganked being much higher than non ganked much higher (did they give actual number or a definition of much higher?) because the sample is ~800 ganked player. If players were to push that 1% to let's say 5%, what people think the results would be.

Can someone appeal a possible ban for "harassing newbies" with the "I was pushing your retention stats" argument while fowarding a pictures of the fanfest presentation?
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#364 - 2015-04-02 20:38:58 UTC
Frostys Virpio wrote:

The red ones are obviously better.

On a different note, what would possibly happen if someone made a ganking campaign just outside of newbie starter systems?


Personally, I've often wondered about the ramifications of the Venture Killing Contest. It's not absurd to suggest that it did more good than harm, and got people engaged and shaken out of the coma that is highsec mining.

Besides that, you know what part of the existing tutorial I approve of? The one that blows up your ship and sends you home in a pod. I've had more new players latch on about that than anything else in the whole tutorial.

Which makes perfect sense to me, EVE only really gets real once you realize that you can lose.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

Dots
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#365 - 2015-04-02 20:45:15 UTC

Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Besides that, you know what part of the existing tutorial I approve of? The one that blows up your ship and sends you home in a pod. I've had more new players latch on about that than anything else in the whole tutorial.

Which makes perfect sense to me, EVE only really gets real once you realize that you can lose.


But doesn't Kirk teach us that the only way to beat the Kobayashi Maru is to cheat?

everything is better with ᵈᵒᵗˢ on it

New Player Opportunities: a gallery

Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#366 - 2015-04-02 20:48:36 UTC
Dots wrote:

Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Besides that, you know what part of the existing tutorial I approve of? The one that blows up your ship and sends you home in a pod. I've had more new players latch on about that than anything else in the whole tutorial.

Which makes perfect sense to me, EVE only really gets real once you realize that you can lose.


But doesn't Kirk teach us that the only way to beat the Kobayashi Maru is to cheat?



True, but not all of us are Space Jesus. Or, if you're going to go Sisko on me, Black Space Jesus either.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

Paranoid Loyd
#367 - 2015-04-02 20:51:08 UTC
*Black Wormhole Alien Space Jesus

"There is only one authority in this game, and that my friend is violence. The supreme authority upon which all other authority is derived." ISD Max Trix

Fix the Prospect!

Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#368 - 2015-04-02 20:52:49 UTC
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Dots wrote:

Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Besides that, you know what part of the existing tutorial I approve of? The one that blows up your ship and sends you home in a pod. I've had more new players latch on about that than anything else in the whole tutorial.

Which makes perfect sense to me, EVE only really gets real once you realize that you can lose.


But doesn't Kirk teach us that the only way to beat the Kobayashi Maru is to cheat?



True, but not all of us are Space Jesus. Or, if you're going to go Sisko on me, Black Space Jesus either.


James kinda pretend to be space Jesus...
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#369 - 2015-04-02 20:54:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Kaarous Aldurald
Frostys Virpio wrote:

James kinda pretend to be space Jesus...


James Tiberius Kirk did not pretend to be Space Jesus, he was. He came(to get down), he saw(many alien women naked), and he conquered(all that booty).

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

Eli Stan
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#370 - 2015-04-02 21:02:05 UTC
Dots wrote:

Correlation is a prerequisite for causation. Did either yourself or Eli have any input as to how the data can more exactly pinpoint causation?


I have some thoughts about stuff possibly worth looking at, but I can't say whether they'll return any meaningful results.

For example:
What ships were the new characters in?
What systems did the ganks happen in, and how far from the starter system was it?
Were the ganked characters ganked again?
Was there a chat initiated between the ganker and gankee?

Quote:
I've yet to see a critic of Rise's study explain in specific terms what is missing or incorrect in the data (and I don't mean creative offtopic analogies).


I dunno about anybody else, but I did not claim the data is wrong. I'm said that it doesn't support the conclusion that "ganking promotes higher player retention rates." The study shows two things. First, that only 1% of new players are ganked within their first 15 days, and from that we can conclude that CCP working to reduce ganking, like some suggest, will most likely not result in much if any increase in new character retention. Second, it shows that the 1% who were ganked were more likely to be retained - but we can't say whether that's because of the gank or for some other reason.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#371 - 2015-04-02 21:05:39 UTC
So is it just me or would it have been super helpful if Rise had run the data to 16 days, when all the newbies quit because they're getting ganked?

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Steppa Musana
Doomheim
#372 - 2015-04-02 21:07:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Steppa Musana
Black Pedro wrote:
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Scipio Artelius wrote:
Blah
Are you deliberately being dense? The orginal example pertains to developers that run silly queries against the database.

Asking the question "how many new players leave after being exploded by another player" is a silly question to ask when trying to assess why new players don't convert from trial to subscriber?

CCP formulated a hypothesis - that new players were not staying because they were being killed by existing players - and tested that by querying over 80 000 data points from their database. They examined the correlation between deaths to other players during the trial and retention rates to test this hypothesis. Surprisingly, they found not only was there no data to support this hypothesis, they found that deaths to other players had the opposite effect.

Sure, this doesn't establish conclusively that one factor causes the other, but certainly it is not a silly question to ask nor a silly way to go about testing that hypothesis. The result is strong evidence that losing a ship to another player (during the trial) is not a predictor of whether a player will stay with the game. Therefore, CCP learned that this is not an area they need to fix and can focus their efforts on other aspects of the trial that do correlate with players not subscribing.

Why is that so difficult to accept?

Because that isn't the conclusion your ilk are going with. You might be an exception, but mostly your kind are using this as evidence that the griefing that occurs in highsec has a positive affect on player retention. Nonsense.

Even in the scope of trial users... why are these players staying more often? The study suggests that players shot in their first 15 days are more likely to stay, no argument. But does that mean shooting players in their first 15 days increases their chance of staying? Nope, even that lighter conclusion is unsubstantiated.

It could be that new players getting shot are putting more time into the game. They like the game more, thats why they are staying. In liking the game more, they put more time into it, and there chance of being shot goes up.

It could be that new players getting shot are more into that kind of gameplay. They put themselves at that risk because they dont care, or want to try it out. Its not shooting them that retains them, its there mentality. Shooting the person without that mentality will not help retain him.

So theres really a lot of ways to look at the data, but you have to actually be honest and not self serving to get to that point. And your kind, you and a few others aside, are the most dishonest and self serving group in the game today.
Kaarous Aldurald
Black Hydra Consortium.
#373 - 2015-04-02 21:14:17 UTC
Steppa Musana wrote:

Because that isn't the conclusion your ilk are going with. You might be an exception, and theres been a couple others, but mostly your kind are using this as evidence that the griefing that occurs in highsec has a positive affect on player retention. Nonsense.



Tell me, what conclusion do you draw from "the people who get non consensually destroyed have by far the best retention rate", may I ask?

I'm going to ignore the rest of your post, because it's just you making thin excuses for your purely emotional rejection of data that you don't want to believe to be true.

Quote:
And your kind, you and a few others aside, are the most dishonest and self serving group in the game today.


Oh, the irony.

"Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."

One of ours, ten of theirs.

Best Meltdown Ever.

Paranoid Loyd
#374 - 2015-04-02 21:18:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Paranoid Loyd
Steppa Musana wrote:
your kind
You sound like a racist redneck.

"There is only one authority in this game, and that my friend is violence. The supreme authority upon which all other authority is derived." ISD Max Trix

Fix the Prospect!

Eve Solecist
Shitt Outta Luck - GANKING4GOOD
#375 - 2015-04-02 21:23:11 UTC
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Can someone appeal a possible ban for "harassing newbies" with the "I was pushing your retention stats" argument while fowarding a pictures of the fanfest presentation?

One can appeal a ban with any reason.
That doesn't mean one will get away with it.

Obviously he'd had to prove this boost of retention rate,
which he won't be able to if he just keeps ganking them.
  • All incoming connection attempts are being blocked. If you want to speak to me you will find me either in Hek local, you can create a contract or make a thread about it in General Discussions. I will call you back. -
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#376 - 2015-04-02 21:23:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Steppa Musana wrote:
Because that isn't the conclusion your ilk are going with. You might be an exception, but mostly your kind are using this as evidence that the griefing that occurs in highsec has a positive affect on player retention. Nonsense.
Making people like you froth at the mouth is reason enough to make claims like this, even more so when a CCP case study appears to back it up.

While CCP Rise's presentation doesn't go as far as explicitly stating that "highsec griefing" has a positive effect on player retention, the presentation he gave certainly seems to suggest that "highsec griefing" doesn't appear to be having a negative effect.

Your use of griefing is inappropriate btw, the dictionary definition doesn't count when those activities are recognised and encouraged by the developer of a game, as is the case with Eve

Quote:
Even in the scope of trial users... why are these players staying more often? The study suggests that players shot in their first 15 days are more likely to stay, no argument. But does that mean shooting players in their first 15 days increases their chance of staying? Nope, even that lighter conclusion is unsubstantiated.
The study was to see if ganking and other PvP affected new player retention, your question of why people who get shot at stay longer is outside the limited scope of the study, in fact it'd be a whole new study.

Quote:
It could be that new players getting shot are putting more time into the game. They like the game more, thats why they are staying. In liking the game more, they put more time into it, and there chance of being shot goes up.

It could be that new players getting shot are more into that kind of gameplay. They put themselves at that risk because they dont care, or want to try it out. Its not shooting them that retains them, its there mentality. Shooting the person without that mentality will not help retain him.
The right mentality is essential, I think that may be the first thing I've ever seen you post that I can agree with; looks like hell just froze over.

Quote:
So theres really a lot of ways to look at the data, but you have to actually be honest and not self serving to get to that point. And your kind, you and a few others aside, are the most dishonest and self serving group in the game today.
Given your expertise in these matters...

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

admiral root
Red Galaxy
#377 - 2015-04-02 21:29:19 UTC
Steppa Musana wrote:
mostly your kind are using this as evidence that the griefing that occurs in highsec...


...exists outside your mind.

No, your rights end in optimal+2*falloff

Eve Solecist
Shitt Outta Luck - GANKING4GOOD
#378 - 2015-04-02 21:29:38 UTC


Do you actually do this IRL too?

I mean ... this argueing with someone. It's like argueing about god and religion.


Does god exist?
Is ganking bad for new players?


When different beliefs clash together,
*talking about what's true* is the most nonsensical thing to do.


You take the facts.
You stick them somewhere.
When an ******* comes along, you point at the facts and tell him to shut up.

No discussions.
No argueing.
No debate.


Facts and HTFU.




*sighs* maybe next month ...
  • All incoming connection attempts are being blocked. If you want to speak to me you will find me either in Hek local, you can create a contract or make a thread about it in General Discussions. I will call you back. -
Eve Solecist
Shitt Outta Luck - GANKING4GOOD
#379 - 2015-04-02 21:32:23 UTC
admiral root wrote:
Steppa Musana wrote:
mostly your kind are using this as evidence that the griefing that occurs in highsec...


...exists outside your mind.
Of course there's griefing, but it's miniscule.

There's always an ******* around somewhere,
but carebears always believe that it's literally everywhere.


I know one of these IRL too. Very smart person,
but keeps falling for the hearsay, because he saw it happening *once*.
  • All incoming connection attempts are being blocked. If you want to speak to me you will find me either in Hek local, you can create a contract or make a thread about it in General Discussions. I will call you back. -
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#380 - 2015-04-02 21:34:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Eve Solecist wrote:
Do you actually do this IRL too?
Not empty quoting

P

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack