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Module tiericide speculation thread. - doomsday preppers
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Zappity
New Eden Tank Testing Services
#21 - 2015-01-14 22:31:31 UTC
For those who are interested I wrote a quick script to pull out all my relevant tiericide transactions. Here are the results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S1dzqPyRAKmPquaDEJHxfO3XiV4n2n1yd_lgm2-dS-c/edit?usp=sharing

This was a very low effort approach - just set slow burn buy orders and slow burn sell orders and let the market wash through them. I updated perhaps once a fortnight because I don't have time.

It is not a clean data set because I couldn't be bothered cleaning up the pre- vs post-name changes etc. But you get the idea. The profit was mostly pre-release, i.e. from speculators who no doubt made a profit of their own because I was not greedy and got out low. I could certainly have gone higher on the light missile launchers and am looking forward to the remaining weapon systems.

Zappity's Adventures for a taste of lowsec and nullsec.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#22 - 2015-01-15 02:13:19 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:


Sabriz one point that you've missed is that that meta 2 is now going to be merged with half a dozen other versions so essentially that niche item is no longer niche as anyone who was using any of the other half dozen modules is now using that one module.
Therein lies one of the most important aspects of this speculation. Historically there have been a great deal of these niche items. Niche meaning basically that they are good for a specific task and so not necessarily highly sought after.
Because of the relatively high supply / low demand there has been a large spread on many T1 items sometimes hundreds of %.
The merging of items pretty much destroys niche items by both increasing demand and simultaneously removing the number of choices a pilot has to make. These actions will close the gap on the spread of many items and this is where huge profits are to be made as prices find middle ground in the spread.
Now this is only a portion of the opportunities to be had with Tiericide but I think one of the most significant.
You are correct it stating that it will take awhile for prices to find their natural floor but my personal projection has been 4-6 months MInimum and perhaps up to a year but not as long as 5 years.
It is a long term investment but I am happy to report that many investors do not understand the nature of this investment and are already liquidating their positions when we haven't even reached the four month mark from the first round.
As far as profits go my projection are profits of up to 1000% with a just few already coming to fruition at this early date.



The best case scenario for this speculation is a situation where one of the meta items becomes the new 'best item'.

Let's say that meta webs get merged into two modules - Restrained - a 55%, 15 CPU, 8km range which existing meta 1 and 3 become, and Scoped - a 55%, 22 CPU, 12km range, which existing meta 2 and 4 becomes.

Here I think you'd say the Scoped one is clearly 'better' than the Restrained one. Not for every fit, but 90% of fits that use a meta web will prefer it.

Assuming drop rates stay the same, however, I still would not see the Scoped web being overly valuable, as there are just so many meta 2 webs on the market now and so many of them get dropped by rats every day. I can see a situation where twenty people have stockpiles of 250000 units of the Scoped web available in Jita and are fighting over an end user demand of a couple thousand units per day - while all of this time mission runners are producing thousands more of them daily.


This is, of course, entirely subject to change if the fundamental assumption - drop rates remaining the same - is false.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#23 - 2015-01-15 05:07:57 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
HeXxploiT wrote:


Sabriz one point that you've missed is that that meta 2 is now going to be merged with half a dozen other versions so essentially that niche item is no longer niche as anyone who was using any of the other half dozen modules is now using that one module.
Therein lies one of the most important aspects of this speculation. Historically there have been a great deal of these niche items. Niche meaning basically that they are good for a specific task and so not necessarily highly sought after.
Because of the relatively high supply / low demand there has been a large spread on many T1 items sometimes hundreds of %.
The merging of items pretty much destroys niche items by both increasing demand and simultaneously removing the number of choices a pilot has to make. These actions will close the gap on the spread of many items and this is where huge profits are to be made as prices find middle ground in the spread.
Now this is only a portion of the opportunities to be had with Tiericide but I think one of the most significant.
You are correct it stating that it will take awhile for prices to find their natural floor but my personal projection has been 4-6 months MInimum and perhaps up to a year but not as long as 5 years.
It is a long term investment but I am happy to report that many investors do not understand the nature of this investment and are already liquidating their positions when we haven't even reached the four month mark from the first round.
As far as profits go my projection are profits of up to 1000% with a just few already coming to fruition at this early date.



The best case scenario for this speculation is a situation where one of the meta items becomes the new 'best item'.

Let's say that meta webs get merged into two modules - Restrained - a 55%, 15 CPU, 8km range which existing meta 1 and 3 become, and Scoped - a 55%, 22 CPU, 12km range, which existing meta 2 and 4 becomes.

Here I think you'd say the Scoped one is clearly 'better' than the Restrained one. Not for every fit, but 90% of fits that use a meta web will prefer it.

Assuming drop rates stay the same, however, I still would not see the Scoped web being overly valuable, as there are just so many meta 2 webs on the market now and so many of them get dropped by rats every day. I can see a situation where twenty people have stockpiles of 250000 units of the Scoped web available in Jita and are fighting over an end user demand of a couple thousand units per day - while all of this time mission runners are producing thousands more of them daily.


This is, of course, entirely subject to change if the fundamental assumption - drop rates remaining the same - is false.


Well "valuable" is relative. If an item has buy orders in @ 1000isk and sell orders @ 20,000isk with the merging of multiple items the buy orders go up to 7000 and the sell drops to 10000 is the item worth a damn? No but who cares I just made 700% profit.
That is all I'm talking about and for my particular focus and bottom line the details are irrelevant.

At any rate due to the fact that the tiericide project is being done through multiple rounds proofs of just how wise this investment is will start to trickle in before it's actually too late to get in.
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