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Periodic Melted Nanoribbon Post - Buy Now!
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Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#101 - 2015-01-01 14:23:24 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
i would argue the t3 component volumes are the true volume of actual use, the volume of nanoribbon is traders (you yourself being one of them)



Ummm ... not sure if serious. The average volume of FICs sold in Jita this month is enough to build about 25 hulls a day. That's it. No subsystems, just 25 hulls.



I want you to post that in the industrial channels and await your response as to why that has absolutely nothing to do with the price of tea in Thailand.

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#102 - 2015-01-01 14:25:02 UTC
explain market alt

id really like to know the price of tea in thailand

@JerryTPepridge
RAW23
#103 - 2015-01-01 14:31:02 UTC
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
RAW23 wrote:
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
i would argue the t3 component volumes are the true volume of actual use, the volume of nanoribbon is traders (you yourself being one of them)



Ummm ... not sure if serious. The average volume of FICs sold in Jita this month is enough to build about 25 hulls a day. That's it. No subsystems, just 25 hulls.



I want you to post that in the industrial channels and await your response as to why that has absolutely nothing to do with the price of tea in Thailand.


I used to build about 10-20% of all the T3 sold in Jita on a daily basis. I have a fair idea of how the build process goes and what are the important figures.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#104 - 2015-01-01 15:30:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Market McSelling Alt
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
explain market alt

id really like to know the price of tea in thailand



The current price of a cup of tea from a non-street vendor is about $1.07 CAN

Thailand has experienced year over year 4% growth in demand for tea.

Anyways, I want RAW to explain why FICs sold in Jita is some kind of predictor for MNR prices when we already know MNR market is flush with foolish investors.

I am also seeing that average daily in Jita is correct, but go back through the history and you see days of 500, 600, 700 sales orders. I don't think the producers will always buy in small numbers, and I don't even think most producers wouldn't just do the whole chain.

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.
RAW23
#105 - 2015-01-01 16:00:56 UTC  |  Edited by: RAW23
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
but go back through the history and you see days of 500, 600, 700 sales orders.


A whole 5 days in the entire year there have been sales above 500 units while more than half the days in the last year the volumes have been under 50 (i.e. less than are needed to build 8 Tengus). The average I gave was for the most active month in the year. Every other month the number is far lower. The big days you point out are all surrounded by absolute deserts. The ten days before the sale of 754 units saw 338 in total, so an average of 34 a day, or enough to build less than 5 Tengus a day.


Quote:

I don't think the producers will always buy in small numbers, and I don't even think most producers wouldn't just do the whole chain.


If you produce T3 it is pretty trivial to produce the components as well as the finished product and no large scale builder will hand a chunk of their profit over to someone else when they don't need to. Historically, and by this I mean consistently over a period of at least four years, this market has always been tiny and irrelevant to the end product price and the raw material price. The last month has been uniquely busy and an argument would be needed to explain why you would expect that trend to continue and this market to become significant. I can think of a few but none of them seem particularly compelling to me.

Quote:

Anyways, I want RAW to explain why FICs sold in Jita is some kind of predictor for MNR prices when we already know MNR market is flush with foolish investors.



That's Jerry's claim, not mine.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#106 - 2015-01-01 17:11:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Jerry T Pepridge
RAW23 wrote:

If you produce T3 it is pretty trivial to produce the components as well as the finished product and no large scale builder will hand a chunk of their profit over to someone else when they don't need to.


Profit is measured from sell orders nothing else. so how does one profit building a subsystem, by building their own components? unless you mean the gap between buy & sell orders, thats a different thing..


RAW23 wrote:

That's Jerry's claim, not mine.


all i said was FIC is "build > buy" atm, so unless ppl are dumb, FICs will be produced, FIC uses nanoribbon, nanoribbon off sell order = profit.

raw went into the details of volume, which is irrelevant to what im saying, builder of subsystem is not going to list the component item on market, so the volume of that one/those is skewed.

i didn't make a manipulation thread about it or anything.

@JerryTPepridge
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#107 - 2015-01-01 17:27:41 UTC
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
explain market alt

id really like to know the price of tea in thailand



The current price of a cup of tea from a non-street vendor is about $1.07 CAN

Thailand has experienced year over year 4% growth in demand for tea.


any thoughts on weaponized coffee? Blink

@JerryTPepridge
RAW23
#108 - 2015-01-01 17:53:13 UTC
Forum ate my post but briefly:

Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
RAW23 wrote:

If you produce T3 it is pretty trivial to produce the components as well as the finished product and no large scale builder will hand a chunk of their profit over to someone else when they don't need to.


Profit is measured from sell orders nothing else. so how does one profit building a subsystem, by building their own components? unless you mean the gap between buy & sell orders, thats a different thing..


One profits from building ones own comps because under normal circumstances buying comps from the market will be more expensive than building them yourself. The rare times when you can pick some up under priced cannot be extrapolated from because they are exceptions rather than the rule. The reason volumes are important is because even when they are under-priced there are not enough FICs being sold to actually affect the value of nanoribbons. You simply can't replace the nanoribbon part of the build with pre-built comps because a) there aren't ever enough on the market to sustain normal production at prices lower than it would cost to build, since b) no one will ever systematically build them and sell them under production cost because they would just be giving away isk. To this we add c) that most producers will not pay a premium to have comps built when they can build them themselves for less at a trivial additional effort. It follows that d) prices in the component market will never be able to have a significant effect on the price of nanoribbons because the size of the component market will never be greater than the volume used by sub-optimal fringe producers (plus mainstream producers grabbing one or two units to smooth out a build when they have miscalculated material quantities required) and the price will never fall significantly below build cost for an extended period.




RAW23 wrote:

That's Jerry's claim, not mine.


all i said was FIC is "build > buy" atm, so unless ppl are dumb, FICs will be produced, FIC uses nanoribbon, nanoribbon off sell order = profit.

raw went into the details of volume, which is irrelevant to what im saying, builder of subsystem is not going to list the component item on market, so the volume of that one/those is skewed.
[/quote]

Well, you're not at your clearest here:

Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
when they see that nothing above the subsystem components is to be built, the price of nano ribbons stagnates. as none are being consumed. (cheaper to buy the components from market than build right?)



but that reads as if you are saying that the price of nanoribbons will stagnate if it is cheaper to buy the components from the market rather than build them. Perhaps you meant something else?

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
RAW23
#109 - 2015-01-01 17:55:06 UTC  |  Edited by: RAW23
double post Oops

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#110 - 2015-01-01 17:55:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Jerry T Pepridge
RAW23 wrote:

but that reads as if you are saying that the price of nanoribbons will stagnate if it is cheaper to buy the components from the market rather than build them. Perhaps you meant something else?


well yeh MNR dont go into anything else derpy, if all the subsystems are Buy > build no-one should be making any components, using the MNRs - how is that not clear?

when the price was 4.2 all the components were Buy > build. thus making the manip a failure? Cool

RAW23 wrote:

One profits from building ones own comps because under normal circumstances buying comps from the market will be more expensive than building them yourself.


no no, you said you wouldnt give away a chunk of your profits, implying you calculate for profits differently to me.

only profits on those should be Sell order MNR > sell order COMP > Sell order Subsystem, nothing else. if you view it that way , it may be more profitable to simply sell the components.

@JerryTPepridge
RAW23
#111 - 2015-01-01 18:02:44 UTC
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
RAW23 wrote:

but that reads as if you are saying that the price of nanoribbons will stagnate if it is cheaper to buy the components from the market rather than build them. Perhaps you meant something else?


well yeh MNR dont go into anything else derpy, if all the subsystems are Buy > build no-one should be making any components, using the MNRs - how is that not clear?


Because the situation where the component market can actually support the production of T3s at the level of demand does not exist. Not clear what you aren't getting here. The component market is tiny and cannot meet demand under any circumstances. Thus, regardless of the price of components people will still need to buy nanoribbons to meet demand (they will just sell their goods at a higher price). The sub 1bil isk daily FIC market just can't carry the load. Therefore, the market price of the small number of components that are sold on the market does not act as a constraint in any way on the purchase of nanoribbons.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#112 - 2015-01-01 18:11:49 UTC
im trying to find a reason why the MNR took a dive so fast, only thing i can think of is the Buy > build thing coz thats how i calculate it, it's all i can think of. if it did not act as the constraint then WTF happened?

oh well, well see how it goes.

/out

@JerryTPepridge
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#113 - 2015-01-01 20:25:46 UTC
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
im trying to find a reason why the MNR took a dive so fast, only thing i can think of is the Buy > build thing coz thats how i calculate it, it's all i can think of. if it did not act as the constraint then WTF happened?

oh well, well see how it goes.

/out


It has not taken a dive at all. It exploded for whatever reason and has now fallen back to it's support level at 3.5 where it has been many times in the past year.