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If the PLEX can only be traded one time.

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Arisidana
Amadari Traders
#81 - 2014-12-24 08:07:20 UTC
PotatoOverdose wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Next year they will be breaking the 1b mark.

No they won't. There are many individuals with thousands of plex stockpiled, and a great many more with hundreds of plex. And all of them want to sell at a maximum. That's why plex crashed harder than ever in December - it dropped by nearly 200 million in less than a month. For those paying attention that is the real record, not the fact that plex failed to hit a billion isk.

What December showed us is that the eve market on TQ cannot support plex at a billion isk with all of those lovely hoarders wanting to cash in on their "investment" (lol).

The downside to this is that everyone knows exactly when to cash out the next time around, then again anyone with half a dose of common sense knew that already. Meh.


I think you are over thinking it a bit, we've had the 'Black Friday' sale not long ago and now we have the Rhea sale, also it's Christmas and players probably drop a few bucks more on PLEX as usual.

It's a buyers market at the moment, but I'm not afraid that the price will stay down there. It's definitely not speculators getting rid of stock, why should they?
Jenshae Chiroptera
#82 - 2014-12-24 11:25:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Jenshae Chiroptera
Arisidana wrote:
PotatoOverdose wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Next year they will be breaking the 1b mark.

No they won't. There are many individuals with thousands of plex stockpiled, and a great many more with hundreds of plex. And all of them want to sell at a maximum. That's why plex crashed harder than ever in December - it dropped by nearly 200 million in less than a month. For those paying attention that is the real record, not the fact that plex failed to hit a billion isk.

What December showed us is that the eve market on TQ cannot support plex at a billion isk with all of those lovely hoarders wanting to cash in on their "investment" (lol).

The downside to this is that everyone knows exactly when to cash out the next time around, then again anyone with half a dose of common sense knew that already. Meh.


I think you are over thinking it a bit, we've had the 'Black Friday' sale not long ago and now we have the Rhea sale, also it's Christmas and players probably drop a few bucks more on PLEX as usual.

It's a buyers market at the moment, but I'm not afraid that the price will stay down there. It's definitely not speculators getting rid of stock, why should they?


I agree and think it is an artificial drop. The mult-box ban, Black Friday, Christmas it is a minor flood that is driving the price down but will dry up. Then the steady inflation and price rises will kick in again.

What I have my popcorn on standby for is the real drop. When you have PLEX traders that have been buying low, storing them up, tied up too much ISK in PLEX then there is a run on it to sell it off. Some of them will be literally sleeping when it happens and they will be stuck with PLEX that they would have to sell at a loss or keep holding onto for quite a long time.

Another artificial one that could give them nightmares is another millionaire selling off loads of PLEX to fuel another null sec alliance war.

Edit: This is a dip that is delaying the real crash that I want to see.

CCP - Building ant hills and magnifying glasses for fat kids

Not even once

EVE is becoming shallow and puerile; it will satisfy neither the veteran nor the "WoW" type crowd in the transition.
Billy McCandless
Zacharia Explorations Group
#83 - 2014-12-24 11:29:14 UTC
aye carnt affrod pleggs becos aye jus myne felt spur rox. Chirpper is mai heyro and he is the felt spur kingge

"Thread locked for being deemed a total loss." - ISD Ezwal
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#84 - 2014-12-24 11:38:31 UTC
PotatoOverdose wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Next year they will be breaking the 1b mark.

No they won't. There are many individuals with thousands of plex stockpiled, and a great many more with hundreds of plex. And all of them want to sell at a maximum. That's why plex crashed harder than ever in December - it dropped by nearly 200 million in less than a month. For those paying attention that is the real record, not the fact that plex failed to hit a billion isk.

What December showed us is that the eve market on TQ cannot support plex at a billion isk with all of those lovely hoarders wanting to cash in on their "investment" (lol).

The downside to this is that everyone knows exactly when to cash out the next time around, then again anyone with half a dose of common sense knew that already. Meh.
Uhhh... no. The PLEX price dropped because with the ISBoxer change coming in, (and no guarantee CCP won't take it further in the new year), the price would go through a temporary crash while supply and demand sorted itself out. In preparation for that, many market speculators dumped PLEX onto the market, causing the current slump.

Once they decide the prices is as low as the think it will go, they'll buy back in, and the price will shoot back up. The "hoarders" know that PLEX prices will always go up, so they will only sell short term. Holding PLEX is far better than holding isk.

PLEX always has and always will tick up in price long term. Next year, >1b/plex, guaranteed.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#85 - 2014-12-24 12:28:41 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
PotatoOverdose wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Next year they will be breaking the 1b mark.

No they won't. There are many individuals with thousands of plex stockpiled, and a great many more with hundreds of plex. And all of them want to sell at a maximum. That's why plex crashed harder than ever in December - it dropped by nearly 200 million in less than a month. For those paying attention that is the real record, not the fact that plex failed to hit a billion isk.

What December showed us is that the eve market on TQ cannot support plex at a billion isk with all of those lovely hoarders wanting to cash in on their "investment" (lol).

The downside to this is that everyone knows exactly when to cash out the next time around, then again anyone with half a dose of common sense knew that already. Meh.
Uhhh... no. The PLEX price dropped because with the ISBoxer change coming in, (and no guarantee CCP won't take it further in the new year), the price would go through a temporary crash while supply and demand sorted itself out. In preparation for that, many market speculators dumped PLEX onto the market, causing the current slump.

Once they decide the prices is as low as the think it will go, they'll buy back in, and the price will shoot back up. The "hoarders" know that PLEX prices will always go up, so they will only sell short term. Holding PLEX is far better than holding isk.

PLEX always has and always will tick up in price long term. Next year, >1b/plex, guaranteed.



This is simply not true. Sales volumes have not increased or decreased significantly. In fact we are still slightly over supplied as we have been for most of the year. That is why I have always said Plex is not a good short term, and a very dubious long term investment. The demand for Plex has not changed (until next month) and the price kept going up with higher levels of supply. It was obvious and still is obvious that as much as half or more plex bought on the market is sitting in asset hangers now, which means if you aren't the big boy, and aren't the first seller, you are going to get screwed.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#86 - 2014-12-24 12:38:00 UTC
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
This is simply not true. Sales volumes have not increased or decreased significantly. In fact we are still slightly over supplied as we have been for most of the year. That is why I have always said Plex is not a good short term, and a very dubious long term investment. The demand for Plex has not changed (until next month) and the price kept going up with higher levels of supply. It was obvious and still is obvious that as much as half or more plex bought on the market is sitting in asset hangers now, which means if you aren't the big boy, and aren't the first seller, you are going to get screwed.
Some people cycle PLEX as the prices goes up some simply hold them. The volumes will balance out as some who cycle PLEX stop cycling them and hold the isk while the hoarders sell some of their stock prior to the drop. Volume is deceiving because you can't see how many unique PLEX are being sold.

And yes, the demand will have changed already. If a player was going to buy their PLEX this month to keep their accounts running and change their mind based on the ISBoxer changes, they would have already not bought it. They won't be waiting until next month to not buy it. Someone who's account ends today for example would have been likely to have bought the PLEX to extend it a week ago, and are unlikely to buy a PLEX for 7 days of play for all of their accounts.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#87 - 2014-12-24 12:53:08 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
This is simply not true. Sales volumes have not increased or decreased significantly. In fact we are still slightly over supplied as we have been for most of the year. That is why I have always said Plex is not a good short term, and a very dubious long term investment. The demand for Plex has not changed (until next month) and the price kept going up with higher levels of supply. It was obvious and still is obvious that as much as half or more plex bought on the market is sitting in asset hangers now, which means if you aren't the big boy, and aren't the first seller, you are going to get screwed.
Some people cycle PLEX as the prices goes up some simply hold them. The volumes will balance out as some who cycle PLEX stop cycling them and hold the isk while the hoarders sell some of their stock prior to the drop. Volume is deceiving because you can't see how many unique PLEX are being sold.

And yes, the demand will have changed already. If a player was going to buy their PLEX this month to keep their accounts running and change their mind based on the ISBoxer changes, they would have already not bought it. They won't be waiting until next month to not buy it. Someone who's account ends today for example would have been likely to have bought the PLEX to extend it a week ago, and are unlikely to buy a PLEX for 7 days of play for all of their accounts.



Assuming they didn't have a buffer plex, or that their character already sold. I would wager that the mass flood of mining and ishtar pilots on the bazaar means I would rather extend into January, not use my character for half a month but fetch an extra billion in the market when the bazaar prices return to stable.

I don't doubt people cycle plexes, however historically we have sold plexes on the market than anyone could have ever hoped to have needed in this game, meaning that they were sold for speculation.

As others have stated, there are characters whose entire wealth is tied into plex and they have hundreds. Plex has no where to go in the short term but down, and long term we are going to see more and more of these bubble breaks landing small time traders of plex in a pool of tears. I don't think we will see a normal price of 1bil plex next year, in fact I would say 750-800 will be our top end.
Greg Inglis
The Conference Elite
Safety.
#88 - 2014-12-24 13:20:57 UTC
plex trader tears are delicious
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#89 - 2014-12-24 14:34:27 UTC
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
Assuming they didn't have a buffer plex, or that their character already sold. I would wager that the mass flood of mining and ishtar pilots on the bazaar means I would rather extend into January, not use my character for half a month but fetch an extra billion in the market when the bazaar prices return to stable.
To be honest, very few people are quitting over it, and many of the ones that are won't be selling most of their characters either just to keep them or because they know that the price for them will be depressed. Seriously, go speak to the multiboxing communities.

Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
I don't doubt people cycle plexes, however historically we have sold plexes on the market than anyone could have ever hoped to have needed in this game, meaning that they were sold for speculation.
Yes... which is why the current drop in price is mostly attributed to speculators. If you actually lok at the graphs, it's pretty clear someone knew this was coming. About 2 weeks before it was annouced, the price suddenly shot up from 850m to 970 or so, then on the day the announcement was made, trade volumes were about double normal for a few days, smashing the price back down. Realistically the "normal" price of PLEX (ignoring speculation if it was moving at it's normal pace) should be around 860-870m. It only looks like a huge difference right now because it got forced up to 970 prior to this drop.

Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
As others have stated, there are characters whose entire wealth is tied into plex and they have hundreds. Plex has no where to go in the short term but down, and long term we are going to see more and more of these bubble breaks landing small time traders of plex in a pool of tears. I don't think we will see a normal price of 1bil plex next year, in fact I would say 750-800 will be our top end.
Hundreds is an understatement. And I'm not sure what you are smoking, but I want some of it. No way will next years stable PLEX price be down on current prices. Even if you ignore the fact that PLEX prices has always gone up long term, you have to ask yourself: If the biggest market traders buy into PLEX, do you really think they've got it wrong?

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
ISD Ezwal
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#90 - 2014-12-24 16:43:23 UTC
If and when you have a serious and well worded proposal for the betterment of EvE, please feel free to post it in the Features & Ideas Discussion part of the forum.

Thread locked.

ISD Ezwal Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)