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Invention Problems
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Akkalvi Yalridirj
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2014-11-20 13:54:23 UTC
I've been attempting to invent tech II rigs (Medium Trimark Armor Pump II). So far, despite a lot of runs, all attempts have failed.

I have a 78% chance (using an attainment decryptor) and I ran 4 attempts. Odds of all those failing are about 0.22 ^ 4 = 0.2 %. I also ran 3 attempts (no decryptor) with a 43% chance. All of those failed as well (0.57 ^ 3 = 18.5 % chance of this occurring).

I have tech I BPCs, the correct datacores, decryptors if I need them, and the three skills affecting invention chance for this rig are at level 3. My tech I BPCs have 1 run remaining, but that should be OK because Tech II rig BPCs have at most 1 base run anyway.

What am I missing here? Is there something I am not doing right? Or is my client just screwed up?
Elvandari
Valheru industries
#2 - 2014-11-20 14:09:48 UTC
Akkalvi Yalridirj wrote:
I've been attempting to invent tech II rigs (Medium Trimark Armor Pump II). So far, despite a lot of runs, all attempts have failed.

I have a 78% chance (using an attainment decryptor) and I ran 4 attempts. Odds of all those failing are about 0.22 ^ 4 = 0.2 %. I also ran 3 attempts (no decryptor) with a 43% chance. All of those failed as well (0.57 ^ 3 = 18.5 % chance of this occurring).

I have tech I BPCs, the correct datacores, decryptors if I need them, and the three skills affecting invention chance for this rig are at level 3. My tech I BPCs have 1 run remaining, but that should be OK because Tech II rig BPCs have at most 1 base run anyway.

What am I missing here? Is there something I am not doing right? Or is my client just screwed up?


you just got unlucky...if you really want to observe the percetage probabilities you need to make at least 100 most likely 1000 runs
then you will see that the percentage really works (with some slight variation of course)
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2014-11-20 15:54:52 UTC
Elvandari wrote:
you just got unlucky..


I've had 9 ammo runs in a row fail. I've also had 5 cruiser runs in a row succeed.
Akkalvi Yalridirj
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#4 - 2014-11-20 15:54:59 UTC
I am pretty sure I am not simply unlucky. As I stated in my post, the odds of failing 4 78% chance runs is extremely low, basically 0. The odds of failing all the runs I have tried so far is essentially 0.
Akkalvi Yalridirj
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#5 - 2014-11-20 16:27:09 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Elvandari wrote:
you just got unlucky..


I've had 9 ammo runs in a row fail. I've also had 5 cruiser runs in a row succeed.


So maybe it's not truly random? A bad pseudorandom number generator?
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2014-11-20 16:30:52 UTC
Ok, CCP's set your invention rates to 0 while everyone else's is fine. That, or you've been unlucky.
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2014-11-20 16:37:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Elena Thiesant
Akkalvi Yalridirj wrote:
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Elvandari wrote:
you just got unlucky..


I've had 9 ammo runs in a row fail. I've also had 5 cruiser runs in a row succeed.


So maybe it's not truly random? A bad pseudorandom number generator?


Well, of course it's pseudorandom, it's computer generated. Doesn't automatically follow that it's a bad one though.

Chance of those 9 ammo failures ~ 0.4%, meaning out of every 1000 sets of 9 invention jobs, 4 will all fail (on average). According to CCP Ytterbium, there are roughly 50 000 invention jobs run every day ( http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/building-better-worlds/ )

If we were to divide those into sets of 9 (which of course is a massive simplification), and assume they all had that 46% chance of success (which of course they don't), then we would expect to see 23 sets of 9 invention jobs fail every day.

In short, that day I got unlucky and was one of that small number.

Edit: Yes, I'm massively over-simplifying things.
Talsha Talamar
Nebula Rasa Holdings
Nebula Rasa
#8 - 2014-12-15 00:38:08 UTC
You are simply unlucky.
Odds of 1:426 are rather likely given the number of invention slots run every day.
My Industry Accounts did probably thousands over thousands of invention jobs over the years.
It all evens out nicely over time an tries, as it should.
Makhpella
Bad Taste.
#9 - 2014-12-15 05:21:02 UTC
You should buy new character. I think you might be jinxed.
Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
#10 - 2015-02-08 13:41:58 UTC
probability are just a probability ....
when you said 78% chance its the limits of infinity value calculation ... but 4 attempt its ... more closer to 0
You have discover law of serie and Distributive Factor

Quote:

Please note: Finally, keep in mind that having a 1 in 4 chance of successfully inventing a T2 BPC is NOT the same as being guaranteed a T2 BPC every four attempts! A 25% chance of success means that you still have almost a 32% chance of failing all four times you try to invent (and a 42% chance of succeeding once, a 21% chance of succeeding twice, a 5% chance of succeeding three times, and less than 1% chance of succeeding four times). Over an increasing number of attempts, you will get an average of 1 T2 BPC for every four T1 BPCs; it just seldom seems that way, when using up valuable decryptors and named modules and failing repeatedly.

source : https://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Invention

What the author evokes in a subliminal way in his comment above
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#11 - 2015-02-09 00:09:57 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Elvandari wrote:
you just got unlucky..

I've had 9 ammo runs in a row fail. I've also had 5 cruiser runs in a row succeed.

I've had something like 50 jump freighter invention fails in a row once. Shocked

http://dilbert.com/strip/2001-10-25
Sisohiv
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#12 - 2015-02-11 17:16:36 UTC
CCP really hate rigs inventions.

The fail rate on modules and the fail rate on ships for me is all together different than the fail rate on rigs.

I do them 8 at a time and I'm up to 24 back to back fails in medium rigs.