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December investments...and why the Market forum sucks...

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HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#1 - 2014-11-17 18:51:55 UTC  |  Edited by: HeXxploiT
The latter first...

The Market forum sucks because none of us ever really what to disclose our secrets.
Oh there are always a few hidden gems here and there but no trader worth his salt wants to create more competition for him/herself.

Well...since I am fully invested and my wallet is empty I've decided to divulge a couple of the items I'm holding and why.

Disclaimer: ALL INVESTMENTS BELOW MAY BE SPECULATIVE

1: Ancient relics & subsystem components.

I believe the birth of T3 Destroyers will initially cause these markets to explode.
You might be thinking now that T3 Destroyers won't be using subsystems and you would be correct however they do have some unique components, have to be made from something and I believe these to be the logical materials.

2:Decryptors

I initially held a chuck of decryptors after buying the cheaper versions in each category in anticipation of the racials being merged.
Surprisingly decryptors have gone through the floor in the face of heavy selling.
I believe others who invested in decryptors did not accurately judge the slow speed at which this market moves and that all decryptors are currently vastly oversold. I've looked at changes to drop rates and believe they are insignificant and have not had a role in the price outside of psychological factors.

Well I hope this gives some lone trader out there some meat to chew on.
As always do your Due Diligence and you will prosper !!! 07
Charlie Nonoke
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#2 - 2014-11-17 20:45:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Charlie Nonoke
Since you're sharing, I thought I'd share a recent adventure in the markets.

Upon hearing the queued invention changes, I set out to buy lots of datacores, since people will mass buy them for their science job queues.

Invested a lot of ISK into them through buy orders.
Let them all go within 48 hours of the patch hitting, and 'lo and behold, there was a burst in demand for datacores, as people scurry tp buy up weekly dosages of datacores for their invention runs.

Was not planning to hold them for long, only as people buy them up before prices restabilise.
~20% was made through that little anticipation.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#3 - 2014-11-17 22:53:59 UTC
I'm in on decryptors too, but I feel the issue is that the majority of inventors are still in the pre-Odyssey mindset of "Decryptors are too precious to waste on things smaller than assault frigates".

They are wrong, but because their production is still profitable they continue without optimizing it, and decryptor demand is lower than it should be.


I'm annoyed that I missed the datacore opportunity, although there's a second factor with datacores right now, the protracted poor showings of Caldari FW have caused those datacores that are sourced (almost) solely from the Caldari FW LP store to soar. There's still buy orders for about 15000 units at over 200k ISK per unit which is pretty unprecedented for a datacore (these represent conversion rates of 3000 ISK per LP if you sell at 200k, and 4000 if you sell at 250k).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#4 - 2014-11-18 07:10:25 UTC
I'm happy to share my investment opportunities.



Step one: Ship 200b worth of compressed ore to Deklein...

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#5 - 2014-11-18 09:18:41 UTC
Most of mine are in my public contract history, I talk about the rest in scc-lounge. Actually telling people exactly what you invest in doesn't really help them though, because you're not telling them when to invest and when to liquidate, it'd soon become you doing their job.

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350125GO
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#6 - 2014-11-18 16:05:48 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
I'm in on decryptors too, but I feel the issue is that the majority of inventors are still in the pre-Odyssey mindset of "Decryptors are too precious to waste on things smaller than assault frigates".

They are wrong, but because their production is still profitable they continue without optimizing it, and decryptor demand is lower than it should be.


I'm annoyed that I missed the datacore opportunity, although there's a second factor with datacores right now, the protracted poor showings of Caldari FW have caused those datacores that are sourced (almost) solely from the Caldari FW LP store to soar. There's still buy orders for about 15000 units at over 200k ISK per unit which is pretty unprecedented for a datacore (these represent conversion rates of 3000 ISK per LP if you sell at 200k, and 4000 if you sell at 250k).



I think the window on decryptors is small due to the expansion of null-sec data/relic sites into the C1-C3 wormholes. There are a lot of people looking for those sites in the lower class holes and eventually they'll find their way to market, so on the supply side there's a chance of deflation. If inventors start using them for more than just ships it should balance out nicely.

You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#7 - 2014-11-18 20:09:34 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:
The latter first...

The Market forum sucks because none of us ever really what to disclose our secrets.


It's years I post every detail about how and what I do on a dedicated thread...

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#8 - 2014-11-18 23:01:03 UTC
350125GO wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
I'm in on decryptors too, but I feel the issue is that the majority of inventors are still in the pre-Odyssey mindset of "Decryptors are too precious to waste on things smaller than assault frigates".

They are wrong, but because their production is still profitable they continue without optimizing it, and decryptor demand is lower than it should be.


I'm annoyed that I missed the datacore opportunity, although there's a second factor with datacores right now, the protracted poor showings of Caldari FW have caused those datacores that are sourced (almost) solely from the Caldari FW LP store to soar. There's still buy orders for about 15000 units at over 200k ISK per unit which is pretty unprecedented for a datacore (these represent conversion rates of 3000 ISK per LP if you sell at 200k, and 4000 if you sell at 250k).



I think the window on decryptors is small due to the expansion of null-sec data/relic sites into the C1-C3 wormholes. There are a lot of people looking for those sites in the lower class holes and eventually they'll find their way to market, so on the supply side there's a chance of deflation. If inventors start using them for more than just ships it should balance out nicely.


The thing is that decryptors are so cheap now that basically any 4 datacore invention job should be using one (possible exception of the ones that use very cheap datacores), assuming that inventors factor in the opportunity cost of keeping their science slots running. Prior to Crius the time calculations were a bit different and most people were production slot limited not science slot limited, and so the value of the '+2 runs' stat on 10 run BPCs has increased dramatically.

Demand would be higher if more people had a better understanding of invention - which may mean that an education thread is called for in the Science and Industry forum...

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Yehala
FISHERS INC
#9 - 2014-11-24 00:59:53 UTC
I don't understand the investment in subsystem components would you mind developping ?

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HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#10 - 2014-11-24 06:11:44 UTC
Yehala wrote:
I don't understand the investment in subsystem components would you mind developping ?


It's pure speculation that some of the specialized parts of T3 destroyers(among other things) will be made using subsystem components.
Dretzle Omega
Ascendance Rising
Ascendance..
#11 - 2014-11-24 14:22:08 UTC
I think the best thing to share is not necessarily which specific items and where to invest in, (To me, finding that out is part of the fun) but how to go about learning that information and investing.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#12 - 2014-11-25 00:48:28 UTC
Hexxploit, do you want to post a 'PSA - Use Decryptors; here's the math' thread in Science and Industry? I've spent too much time on the CSM campaign writeup so I'll let you do the market manipulation post this time.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#13 - 2014-11-25 01:44:10 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Hexxploit, do you want to post a 'PSA - Use Decryptors; here's the math' thread in Science and Industry? I've spent too much time on the CSM campaign writeup so I'll let you do the market manipulation post this time.


I'll leave that one to you. My specialty is speculation not manipulation.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#14 - 2014-11-25 03:37:56 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Hexxploit, do you want to post a 'PSA - Use Decryptors; here's the math' thread in Science and Industry? I've spent too much time on the CSM campaign writeup so I'll let you do the market manipulation post this time.


I'll leave that one to you. My specialty is speculation not manipulation.


When it is time to sell, you need to do both.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#15 - 2014-11-25 03:57:54 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
HeXxploiT wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Hexxploit, do you want to post a 'PSA - Use Decryptors; here's the math' thread in Science and Industry? I've spent too much time on the CSM campaign writeup so I'll let you do the market manipulation post this time.


I'll leave that one to you. My specialty is speculation not manipulation.


When it is time to sell, you need to do both.


When I daytraded for a living I did my damnedest to avoid pump & dumps. I understand the philosophy but the flipside of that is reputation which can also be invaluable.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#16 - 2014-11-25 04:01:52 UTC
HeXxploiT wrote:


When I daytraded for a living I did my damnedest to avoid pump & dumps. I understand the philosophy but the flipside of that is reputation which can also be invaluable.


That is what alts are for.

Also this isn't a pump and dump, as the items in question are legitimately underpriced due to a lack of understanding of game mechanics.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#17 - 2014-11-25 05:03:10 UTC  |  Edited by: HeXxploiT
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
HeXxploiT wrote:


When I daytraded for a living I did my damnedest to avoid pump & dumps. I understand the philosophy but the flipside of that is reputation which can also be invaluable.


That is what alts are for.

Also this isn't a pump and dump, as the items in question are legitimately underpriced due to a lack of understanding of game mechanics.


Precisely. And the price will fix itself. You're sounding a bit worried. Have faith in your due diligence.