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So who will be moving to THERA? (Jita without Concord)

First post
Author
Esan Vartesa
Samarkand Financial
#21 - 2014-11-11 18:31:05 UTC
Kharamete wrote:
You'd perhaps be limited to Orcas, and let's be honest – considering how risk averse people are, nobody is going to jump into Thera with an Orca without a big escort. And most people don't bother about escorts. So, no Lawless Jita in wormhole space.


People aren't as risk averse as is often said. Most of the time, people don't take risks simply because the reward isn't worth it. If this system is as convenient to get to from everywhere as is suspected, then suddenly bothering with an escort to get an Orca full of goods docked makes sense.

Essentially, the location means demand for goods will be sky high. Supply will be the bottleneck, which means very high margins. Those margins in turn will be determined by the risk involved in creating supply.

Increase Risk -> Increase Margins -> Increase Reward

If this is implemented wisely, CCP may have discovered a self-sustaining mechanism for balancing Risk/Reward.
Marsha Mallow
#22 - 2014-11-11 18:31:36 UTC
The most sensible items to trade initially might work out to be small volume, high value items. If you consider the types of players who have access to faction/officer drops and WH goodies, Thera doesn't really present all that much of an obstacle for people used to navigating tricky space. With enough ISK, you could force that type of market into being.

People have been mentioning the old freighter convoys with nostalgia for a while, but it simply wasn't viable with pre-Phoebe capital ranges/proliferation. But I suspect long term, people will try the convoy routes again. Also, consider boosters - which are a pain to buy AND sell (and were slated for a massive overhaul a while back, which was put on the back burner for a bit). It's possible booster production will centre around Thera. All it takes is a handful of traders to start a venture there with moderate investment, and it'll have ripple effects on the tertiary hubs. Officer mods in particular aren't in massive supply (although would require a fair chunk to corner).

It's an interesting experiment, really looking forward to it. In a way it tests the concept of spacetravel without gates as well as local removal. And it pokes at the players to see just how much risk they are prepared to take - I'll be really curious to see how many new players try get to Thera, and how long it takes them to try. If there are NPC stations I suspect there will be a mad rush to sneak people in, to open offices and deathclone alts across. It might be worth allowing unlimited office opening initially just to get people in there poking about.

Also, and I hate to say it, but it's only a matter of time before someone creates a WH/sig mapping app for the entire game that is publically available. ATM they are used by closed groups for internal affairs, but I can see some enterprising soul creating a subscription based version which is rapidly made free.

Ripard Teg > For the morons in the room:

Sweets > U can dd my face any day

Syn Shi
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#23 - 2014-11-11 18:40:47 UTC
Marsha Mallow wrote:
The most sensible items to trade initially might work out to be small volume, high value items. If you consider the types of players who have access to faction/officer drops and WH goodies, Thera doesn't really present all that much of an obstacle for people used to navigating tricky space. With enough ISK, you could force that type of market into being.

People have been mentioning the old freighter convoys with nostalgia for a while, but it simply wasn't viable with pre-Phoebe capital ranges/proliferation. But I suspect long term, people will try the convoy routes again. Also, consider boosters - which are a pain to buy AND sell (and were slated for a massive overhaul a while back, which was put on the back burner for a bit). It's possible booster production will centre around Thera. All it takes is a handful of traders to start a venture there with moderate investment, and it'll have ripple effects on the tertiary hubs. Officer mods in particular aren't in massive supply (although would require a fair chunk to corner).

It's an interesting experiment, really looking forward to it. In a way it tests the concept of spacetravel without gates as well as local removal. And it pokes at the players to see just how much risk they are prepared to take - I'll be really curious to see how many new players try get to Thera, and how long it takes them to try. If there are NPC stations I suspect there will be a mad rush to sneak people in, to open offices and deathclone alts across. It might be worth allowing unlimited office opening initially just to get people in there poking about.

Also, and I hate to say it, but it's only a matter of time before someone creates a WH/sig mapping app for the entire game that is publically available. ATM they are used by closed groups for internal affairs, but I can see some enterprising soul creating a subscription based version which is rapidly made free.



Like the one in this stickied post i the WH section.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=320030&find=unread
Gallowmere Rorschach
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#24 - 2014-11-11 18:44:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Gallowmere Rorschach
Ranger 1 wrote:

Fair points, although a few other factors may come into play.

We don't know how many stations will be in Thera. Considering the sheer size of the system there could be a LOT.

We don't know what the system mechanics will be like, frankly at this point we don't even know if bubbles will work there. All we know is that CCP doesn't seem to think that moving ships and materials in and out of system will be difficult (or at least not impossible), and that station camping doesn't appear to worry them overly much either... which might indicate that these "unique" and unannounced system mechanics (or environmental peculiarities if you prefer) will make such activities much more difficult.

If trade and manufacturing can flourish there, one would think that a military presence could as well.

We really won't know a lot until we get facts on:

Where the static wormholes end up.
How many statics there are.
How many wandering wormholes show up, and how often.
How big the system is
How many NPC stations are there, and how far apart.
What are the new and unique environmental factors in play.

Absolutely. I think that all of these question marks are a big reason that you won't see many (if any) organized groups making plans for it just yet. I would assume that more details will be divulged as we get closer to the release. If that ends up not being the case though, the only "mad rush" into that system that I expect to see, is a bunch of CovOps and cloaky/nullified T3s poking around in there for the first week or two.
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#25 - 2014-11-11 18:45:07 UTC
Syn Shi wrote:
Marsha Mallow wrote:
The most sensible items to trade initially might work out to be small volume, high value items. If you consider the types of players who have access to faction/officer drops and WH goodies, Thera doesn't really present all that much of an obstacle for people used to navigating tricky space. With enough ISK, you could force that type of market into being.

People have been mentioning the old freighter convoys with nostalgia for a while, but it simply wasn't viable with pre-Phoebe capital ranges/proliferation. But I suspect long term, people will try the convoy routes again. Also, consider boosters - which are a pain to buy AND sell (and were slated for a massive overhaul a while back, which was put on the back burner for a bit). It's possible booster production will centre around Thera. All it takes is a handful of traders to start a venture there with moderate investment, and it'll have ripple effects on the tertiary hubs. Officer mods in particular aren't in massive supply (although would require a fair chunk to corner).

It's an interesting experiment, really looking forward to it. In a way it tests the concept of spacetravel without gates as well as local removal. And it pokes at the players to see just how much risk they are prepared to take - I'll be really curious to see how many new players try get to Thera, and how long it takes them to try. If there are NPC stations I suspect there will be a mad rush to sneak people in, to open offices and deathclone alts across. It might be worth allowing unlimited office opening initially just to get people in there poking about.

Also, and I hate to say it, but it's only a matter of time before someone creates a WH/sig mapping app for the entire game that is publically available. ATM they are used by closed groups for internal affairs, but I can see some enterprising soul creating a subscription based version which is rapidly made free.



Like the one in this stickied post i the WH section.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=320030&find=unread


A lot of what happens in the wormhole section of the forums goes unnoticed by the general population. It is quite possible that will change soon. Smile

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.

Marsha Mallow
#26 - 2014-11-11 18:45:22 UTC
Syn Shi wrote:
Like the one in this stickied post i the WH section.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=320030&find=unread

Or like Siggy, or any other player made app. All of which are being developed internally (and probably better by well-resourced blocs) but my point is... actually, I'm not going to bother explaining it. Work it out.

Ripard Teg > For the morons in the room:

Sweets > U can dd my face any day

Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#27 - 2014-11-11 18:47:49 UTC
Gallowmere Rorschach wrote:
Ranger 1 wrote:

Fair points, although a few other factors may come into play.

We don't know how many stations will be in Thera. Considering the sheer size of the system there could be a LOT.

We don't know what the system mechanics will be like, frankly at this point we don't even know if bubbles will work there. All we know is that CCP doesn't seem to think that moving ships and materials in and out of system will be difficult (or at least not impossible), and that station camping doesn't appear to worry them overly much either... which might indicate that these "unique" and unannounced system mechanics (or environmental peculiarities if you prefer) will make such activities much more difficult.

If trade and manufacturing can flourish there, one would think that a military presence could as well.

We really won't know a lot until we get facts on:

Where the static wormholes end up.
How many statics there are.
How many wandering wormholes show up, and how often.
How big the system is
How many NPC stations are there, and how far apart.
What are the new and unique environmental factors in play.

Absolutely. I think that all of these question marks are a big reason that you won't see many (if any) organized groups making plans for it just yet. I would assume that more details will be divulged as we get closer to the release. If that ends up not being the case though, the only "mad rush" into that system that I expect to see, is a bunch of CovOps and cloaky/nullified T3s poking around in there for the first week or two.

Probably all buying up offices and making bookmarks. Big smile

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.

Gallowmere Rorschach
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#28 - 2014-11-11 18:50:19 UTC
Ranger 1 wrote:

Probably all buying up offices and making bookmarks. Big smile

Precisely. If the size of the system is anything like what I am imagining, a scanner nerd who knows how to short warp could easily spend a few days amusing him/herself just making tacticals, safes, and a few navigation routes through it.
Marsha Mallow
#29 - 2014-11-11 18:56:44 UTC
Ranger 1 wrote:
Probably all buying up offices and making bookmarks. Big smile

To be fair, I think it's a good thing. People can baw all they like about blobbing, but organised groups will pre-map all of the logistical headache out then present it all nicely wrapped up for the rest of us in the form of guides/gossip/kms. It's fun to be a part of it, but it's also nice to wait for someone else to smooth out the edges.

Also, CCP could really force the issue. Hehe. Make all the stations CONCORD/Interbus or something, so people have to redeem their LP there. PLEASE DO IT! MY CAT IS CALLED PHOEBE TOO!

Ripard Teg > For the morons in the room:

Sweets > U can dd my face any day

Nuela
WoT Misfits
#30 - 2014-11-11 19:15:25 UTC
Esan Vartesa wrote:
Kharamete wrote:
You'd perhaps be limited to Orcas, and let's be honest – considering how risk averse people are, nobody is going to jump into Thera with an Orca without a big escort. And most people don't bother about escorts. So, no Lawless Jita in wormhole space.


People aren't as risk averse as is often said. Most of the time, people don't take risks simply because the reward isn't worth it.


QFT.

I have often been called, diplomatically, risk averse. Undiplomatically much worse :)

The problem is that if you choose to play this game for its economy, then you have to play FOR ITS ECONOMY. This means that you need to make smart economic decisions.

Part of that decision is that increase risk means increased reward and since part of that increased risk is to be the plaything of actual people it had damn well better be SIGNIFICANTLY increased reward! I am not going to let some guy blow me up and giggle with glee at my expense so that I can make a measly 20% more per unit of time.

The reason I tend to be risk averse is that not only is there NOT increased reward for increased risk, many times there is a decrease in reward due to losses, losing time to running away/being camped etc etc etc. To say I should do that for 'content' reasons is silly...I am roleplaying a tough-economic minded toon and that toon would NOT do such a thing. To ask her to is basically asking this toon to not be played.

I will definitely be there and taking huge risks *IF* the rewards are worth it. If not, forget it. Based on prior history with the devs in this game...the rewards probably won't even match hisec missioning after factoring in losses in time and material, let alone to make it worth my while to provide content to gankers. However, if the rewards are there...I will be providing plenty of targets for people to catch/blow up.
Jur Tissant
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#31 - 2014-11-11 19:16:59 UTC
I am skeptical.

They compare it to a virtual Mos Eisley. But in Mos Eisley, you still watched your step for fear of getting shot if you pissed someone off. In EVE, this fear does not exist, or is severely mitigated.

It's like DayZ. In the real apocalypse, you can't trust anyone. In the virtual apocalypse, you can trust everyone - to shoot you for giggles.
Jvpiter
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#32 - 2014-11-11 19:20:07 UTC
Nuela wrote:
I will definitely be there and taking huge risks *IF* the rewards are worth it. If not, forget it. Based on prior history with the devs in this game...the rewards probably won't even match hisec missioning after factoring in losses in time and material, let alone to make it worth my while to provide content to gankers. However, if the rewards are there...I will be providing plenty of targets for people to catch/blow up.


I get what you're saying, but how will you know if the rewards are worth it? Thera not being worth it in this case simply becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.


Being completely risk averse does not lead to the best business decisions. Informed risk isn't what you are describing here.

Call me Joe.

Nuela
WoT Misfits
#33 - 2014-11-11 19:27:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Nuela
Jvpiter wrote:
Nuela wrote:
I will definitely be there and taking huge risks *IF* the rewards are worth it. If not, forget it. Based on prior history with the devs in this game...the rewards probably won't even match hisec missioning after factoring in losses in time and material, let alone to make it worth my while to provide content to gankers. However, if the rewards are there...I will be providing plenty of targets for people to catch/blow up.


I get what you're saying, but how will you know if the rewards are worth it? Thera not being worth it in this case simply becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.


Being completely risk averse does not lead to the best business decisions. Informed risk isn't what you are describing here.



Exactly. I will take risks...it's just that, In Eve, there is very little reward worth the extra risk.

True about the self-fulfilling prophesy but that is the Devs problem, not mine. I will try it out and give it a fair shake but if it doesn't pan out or look like it has potential to...I will stop.

Thinking about this some more, I'm not sure how this could work ---

Why would somebody build items or accumulate material and sell it here? Answer: Because it is worth the risk. This means however, that stuff sells for more here.

Why would somebody buy here instead of Jita despite it being risky to get it out. Answer: because stuff is cheaper here otherwise would buy in Jita.

Not sure how this paradox could work except that maybe one can't just easily ship in from Jita and use in the new space and this area is a market of its own. However, I don't see this from the description we have.
DaReaper
Net 7
Cannon.Fodder
#34 - 2014-11-11 19:33:29 UTC
I see it as a lawless way stations for wormholers.

Depending on the non static connections and how many it could be a decent stop over for wh groups to sell and buy various gases and equipment they need without having to hope that the exits lead to stuff that's needed.

It could also become a hell hole that is perma camped by one group or another, or a good war zone.

Honestly, it would be nice to be a kinda free port, where no one stakes a claim and the market gets good put into it, and the people who pass through police it themselves... but I am sure a wh group will be claming it and going nbsi really quickly after launch.

I will visit it, and as has been said, most likely pop. lol

OMG Comet Mining idea!!! Comet Mining!

Eve For life.

embrel
BamBam Inc.
#35 - 2014-11-11 19:48:04 UTC
Nuela wrote:
Jvpiter wrote:
Nuela wrote:
I will definitely be there and taking huge risks *IF* the rewards are worth it. If not, forget it. Based on prior history with the devs in this game...the rewards probably won't even match hisec missioning after factoring in losses in time and material, let alone to make it worth my while to provide content to gankers. However, if the rewards are there...I will be providing plenty of targets for people to catch/blow up.


I get what you're saying, but how will you know if the rewards are worth it? Thera not being worth it in this case simply becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.


Being completely risk averse does not lead to the best business decisions. Informed risk isn't what you are describing here.



Exactly. I will take risks...it's just that, In Eve, there is very little reward worth the extra risk.

True about the self-fulfilling prophesy but that is the Devs problem, not mine. I will try it out and give it a fair shake but if it doesn't pan out or look like it has potential to...I will stop.

Thinking about this some more, I'm not sure how this could work ---

Why would somebody build items or accumulate material and sell it here? Answer: Because it is worth the risk. This means however, that stuff sells for more here.

Why would somebody buy here instead of Jita. Answer: because stuff is cheaper here otherwise would buy in Jita.

Not sure how this paradox could work except that maybe one can't just easily ship in from Jita and use in the new space and this area is a market of it's own. However, I don't see this from the description we have.


It might work out due to opportunity costs of hauling especially to backwater systems (from Jita), but I'd assume for the bulk, these opportunity cost will not be sufficient.
Indahmawar Fazmarai
#36 - 2014-11-11 20:04:58 UTC
It's not hisec. 'nuff said. Bear
Herzog Wolfhammer
Sigma Special Tactics Group
#37 - 2014-11-11 20:07:50 UTC
Ranger 1 wrote:
Gallowmere Rorschach wrote:
Ranger 1 wrote:

Fair enough, but I'm surprised the major alliances are taking a keen interest in having a base of operations that has very easy static connections to empire, as well as a steady stream of wormholes to everywhere... especially considering the new limitations in play that limit fleet movement via Titan bridge.

It would be entirely too easy for an alliance to get their assets camped into such a place. There's a reason that NPC null is either used only for deployments, or as a last resort when all sov is lost. Granted, the recent removal of hobojamming makes this only slightly more difficult, it's still far from impossible. Anyone with enemies could very quickly find themselves hellcamped into that station.
It makes far more sense to just use your own sov space, and take full advantage of wormholes within your regions of control.

Fair points, although a few other factors may come into play.

We don't know how many stations will be in Thera. Considering the sheer size of the system there could be a LOT.

We don't know what the system mechanics will be like, frankly at this point we don't even know if bubbles will work there. All we know is that CCP doesn't seem to think that moving ships and materials in and out of system will be difficult (or at least not impossible), and that station camping doesn't appear to worry them overly much either... which might indicate that these "unique" and unannounced system mechanics (or environmental peculiarities if you prefer) will make such activities much more difficult.

If trade and manufacturing can flourish there, one would think that a military presence could as well.

We really won't know a lot until we get facts on:

Where the static wormholes end up.
How many statics there are.
How many wandering wormholes show up, and how often.
How big the system is
How many NPC stations are there, and how far apart.
What are the new and unique environmental factors in play.



I would like to add to your list:

How much mass the wormholes would handle (would they be in accord with where they link or would these be "special cases"?)



I still think this is more of an experiment and I gotta say I like it when CCP experiments. That's a sign they might have clubbed their marketing department like baby seals and carted them off (a good thing).

How players use these new systems and the overall result might even drive future changes to the game so there lies another reason to have interest in this.



Bring back DEEEEP Space!

Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#38 - 2014-11-11 20:16:02 UTC
Nobody 'lives' in Jita except maybe Alts.

Thera will be Arena PvP until the node crashes with 600 interceptors on a bubble infested wormhole.

I'm not saying don't do it. I, like others just see the direction it will take because certain player groups in EVE are all about the I-win button.
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#39 - 2014-11-11 20:16:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Ranger 1
Nuela wrote:
Jvpiter wrote:
Nuela wrote:
I will definitely be there and taking huge risks *IF* the rewards are worth it. If not, forget it. Based on prior history with the devs in this game...the rewards probably won't even match hisec missioning after factoring in losses in time and material, let alone to make it worth my while to provide content to gankers. However, if the rewards are there...I will be providing plenty of targets for people to catch/blow up.


I get what you're saying, but how will you know if the rewards are worth it? Thera not being worth it in this case simply becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.


Being completely risk averse does not lead to the best business decisions. Informed risk isn't what you are describing here.



Exactly. I will take risks...it's just that, In Eve, there is very little reward worth the extra risk.

True about the self-fulfilling prophesy but that is the Devs problem, not mine. I will try it out and give it a fair shake but if it doesn't pan out or look like it has potential to...I will stop.

Thinking about this some more, I'm not sure how this could work ---

Why would somebody build items or accumulate material and sell it here? Answer: Because it is worth the risk. This means however, that stuff sells for more here.

Why would somebody buy here instead of Jita despite it being risky to get it out. Answer: because stuff is cheaper here otherwise would buy in Jita.

Not sure how this paradox could work except that maybe one can't just easily ship in from Jita and use in the new space and this area is a market of its own. However, I don't see this from the description we have.

My money is on this: If there is one area that is certain to not have ready access to Thera, it will be Jita.
JIta is often not convenient to get to for many folks, but they do so because it is a one stop shop... now if a new hub emerged that was easier to get to for many people (especially low and null sec residents) and had the same variety as Jita...

It would be interesting.

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.

Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#40 - 2014-11-11 20:23:55 UTC
Skydell wrote:
Nobody 'lives' in Jita except maybe Alts.

Thera will be Arena PvP until the node crashes with 600 interceptors on a bubble infested wormhole.

I'm not saying don't do it. I, like others just see the direction it will take because certain player groups in EVE are all about the I-win button.

Well, Thera has one incentive for people to live there that Jita will never have... an unending supply of unsuspecting targets right on the other side of the wormholes that open and close constantly.

If nothing else it is the ideal base of operations for a group that enjoys pirating and raiding.

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.