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37.5% and 40.6% invulns - analysis

Author
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#1 - 2014-11-10 02:57:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
This highly challenging mental puzzle is called, "click on compare button for adaptive invulnerability fields and check Jita prices".


40.6% invulns are going for less than Caldari Invulns and almost the same price as Dread Guristas 37.5% screens.

Seems like some arbitrage should happen - people who own caldari invulns should definitely dump those i think and trade for pith C-types.

There's also no reason whatsoever not to instantaneously dump, real quick like, those Gistum C-Types, B-Types and A-types.

There's also basically no point buying any of the 37.5% invulns right now.


Comparative prices:

Dread Gurista 37.5% 232m
Pith C-Type 40.6% 280m

CN 37.5% 370m (useless souveniers/roleplay item)

Gist C-Type 37.5% 245m? (more expensive than Dread Gurista - dump now)
Gist B-Type 40.6% 415m (bizarre nonsense - dump yesterday)

T2 30% 1.3m (big drop in EHP and risk)

Capacitor/CPU requirement differences are negligible for most cruiser+ size fits (and even frigs). We are talking 2 CPU difference and 0.66 GJ/s cap.


If you are dropping ~465m on a pair of Dread Guristas you may as well drop ~560m on C-types?

Since generally a full blingy fit is going to be at least 1b total risk..
Compared to Dread Gurisas, basically for about 5-10% of the ship price you can get about 10-15% more EHP (20% overloaded).

Regardless, why on earth there's a single person buying anything other than Dread Gurista and C-Type? (excluding blingier invulns)

Too lazy to click the compare button?

PS: Gist A-Type is a very special purchase only made by super special individuals.
Patty Loveless
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#2 - 2014-11-10 04:05:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Patty Loveless
No biggie. CN Invulns are overpriced atm, which is why volume is drastically down. ~20 a day CN vs ~80-100 a day for pith c-types

As for 'Why'. Part of that is in name recognition and how the items come into the game.
People know CN is the shield faction, so they know it is the best faction item. +1 for CN
Goons (and their crayon-eating CFC peers) plexing in the north brain-numbingly running Guristas mil op complexes (the 7/10) get the pith c-types and then just wanna sell it for w/e is quick so they can PLEX their bots.

This isn't anything unique to invulns, or CN. Many items with matching specs have otherwise unexplainable price differences. For a long while (like years) centi-c type ANP were a good 20% less than Imperial navy.

Lastly, and just as a bonus reason. CN invulns are far from the best lp/isk conversion lately. In fact CN antimatter AMMO is better atm. Hence, mission runners trying to push up the prices to be in line and worth converting.

Disclosure: I went long on CN invulns 2 years ago before going out of game for a while.


Unless something has changed, I've yet to find a way in eve to exploit selling an item short, you could make this a worthwhile thread and exploring that though.
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#3 - 2014-11-10 21:51:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
x
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#4 - 2014-11-11 11:17:38 UTC
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#5 - 2014-11-12 04:50:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
Since the volume over the weekend was 2-3x the usual volume i think the most likely explanation is that it's the first weekend after Phoebe and returning players are selling assets. I'm gonna continue buying.

Note also a very large spike in volume in B-types.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#6 - 2014-11-12 12:19:35 UTC
Also, with the new exploration loot more people will be exploring.
Patty Loveless
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#7 - 2014-11-12 20:27:43 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Also, with the new exploration loot more people will be exploring.

I think this is a red herring. Combat exploration is not the same as relic/data exploration. Sure, many people do both, but they are usually dedicated activities with dedicated characters and ships.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#8 - 2014-11-12 23:09:29 UTC
I bought them for personal use, if anything I want them to go up, because I saw this thread advertising them and they were cheap enough for me to want them. I don't know anything about exploration, I just figured people had scanning and combat characters or mobile depots to refit and wouldn't skip on a decent site if they found one.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#9 - 2014-11-12 23:10:58 UTC
Patty Loveless wrote:
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Also, with the new exploration loot more people will be exploring.

I think this is a red herring. Combat exploration is not the same as relic/data exploration. Sure, many people do both, but they are usually dedicated activities with dedicated characters and ships.



Exploration being iterated on means more people dabbling in it.

More people learning scanning mechanics means more combat exploration sites being run.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#10 - 2014-11-12 23:23:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
Patty Loveless wrote:
No biggie. CN Invulns are overpriced atm, which is why volume is drastically down. ~20 a day CN vs ~80-100 a day for pith c-types

As for 'Why'. Part of that is in name recognition and how the items come into the game.
People know CN is the shield faction, so they know it is the best faction item. +1 for CN
Goons (and their crayon-eating CFC peers) plexing in the north brain-numbingly running Guristas mil op complexes (the 7/10) get the pith c-types and then just wanna sell it for w/e is quick so they can PLEX their bots.

This isn't anything unique to invulns, or CN. Many items with matching specs have otherwise unexplainable price differences. For a long while (like years) centi-c type ANP were a good 20% less than Imperial navy.

Lastly, and just as a bonus reason. CN invulns are far from the best lp/isk conversion lately. In fact CN antimatter AMMO is better atm. Hence, mission runners trying to push up the prices to be in line and worth converting.

Disclosure: I went long on CN invulns 2 years ago before going out of game for a while.


Unless something has changed, I've yet to find a way in eve to exploit selling an item short, you could make this a worthwhile thread and exploring that though.



CN Invuln Volume should really be 0-1/day since it's useless even as a collector item.

I think this odd price phenomenon is due to CN brand name + people too lazy to use the compare tool.
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#11 - 2014-11-14 08:14:55 UTC
Looks like this is mostly due to mid to high tier modules dumped from capital fits as people ditch their capitals. Carrier prices are depressed as well but this is probably temporary and prices will recover. There's some evidence that prices aready bottomed out and greed is back :)

Wrt CN invulns i just realized that they are basically relatively safe of price depression because the supply will self-restrict due to other opportunities for LP spending. What's interesting though is it also seems to serve as a buffer on deadspace module pricing. Basically when purchase volume moves from CN to deadspace, supply of CN gets restricted, thus helping the price of deadspace recover to some extent (and vice versa).
Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#12 - 2014-11-15 00:52:30 UTC
WTB Dream Five courier contract

it's a big load and i need dem dumps like a truck truck truck, thighs like what what what
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#13 - 2014-11-19 01:34:04 UTC
bump, price arbitrage is overdue. Updated OP.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#14 - 2014-11-19 06:10:41 UTC
You should post a PSA thread in one of the carebear oriented sections of the forums.

Also when you do, please report any suspicious sales of carebear equipment to the proper authorities so that they can be confiscated, and then (if the loot fairy approves) sold to one of your buy orders so the cycle may continue.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Dave Stark
#15 - 2014-11-19 11:16:45 UTC
have you considered fitting requirements and/or capacitor usage with regards to what is and isn't in demand, rather than just the % bonus?
Sam Spock
The Arnold Connection
#16 - 2014-11-19 19:48:09 UTC
The Gurista Hideaway and Refuge sites are giving out WAY more escalations to Gurista Scout Outposts, where the pithum c-type stuff comes from. CCP apparently buffed the loot and increased the chances of the escalation. From subbing in March to Phoebe release I have gotten 5 escalations to GSO's. Since Phoebe I have gotten 7.

The supply of Pithum c-type stuff has gone up quite a bit from this change.

I have not looked but I would suspect similar drops in the prices from all the 4/10 site c-type stuff.

Giving you Inconsistent grammar, speilling and Punct-uation since 1974!

Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#17 - 2014-11-20 01:58:56 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
have you considered fitting requirements and/or capacitor usage with regards to what is and isn't in demand, rather than just the % bonus?


Yeah they are pretty much negligible. 2 CPU difference and within 0.66 GJ/s.
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#18 - 2014-11-21 06:43:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
To players' credit, the market on Gist-B types haven't had a new order in 23 days.
This is correct market behavior - dump Gist B-types until it's roughly even with Pith C-types.

Gist C-types still need to come down about 10-20m as well to match the pricing on cheaper substitutes (dread guristas).

It's good to see rational price movement in CN invulns as well - these still have a long way to go down - about 100m for buy orders :)
Cattiva daSilva
one stop fleetshop
#19 - 2014-11-21 15:52:31 UTC
CN invul prices are based on tags
X ATM092
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#20 - 2014-11-22 02:00:06 UTC
CN invuln price has a floor based upon production cost which the others do not share.
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