Market Discussions

Full Disclosure: I have ISK invested in this venture, and am not an unbiased party to this market. Dump hulls, buy up hulls, or self-destruct hulls at your own risk.

Crius saw a flurry of market speculation oriented manufacturing jobs put into play. 2 months in, I thought it would be interesting to see how one of those markets is doing.

Because of the new ME/PE system, the price of all T2 items made from ME -3 prints or better went up. JFs were usually made from -1/-1 prints. This means that when the dust settles, we should expect JFs to sell for about 8B a piece, up from 6B a piece from before patch.

2 months in, prices are in the 6.2-6.4B range for all 4 JFs.

The obvious answer for why we're not at 8B is oversupply from producers like me who made tens if not hundreds of hulls in anticipation of a 30% profit on a billion isk scale. (These opportunities do not come very often ;))

The current state of affairs is shown in these four charts: http://i.imgur.com/VyPaP4F.png

Clearly, the diff JF hulls are behaving markedly differently:
- Nomad: These are on the fastest trajectory to reach 8B. Nomads were always the least popular amongst the JFs, so rational speculators kept away from it more than the others, thinking the would sell slower after patch. Prices are going up at a steady clip because demand is outstripping supply.
- Anshar: These guys are the workhorse JFs. Their sustained demand is budging prices higher, though the clip is not as steady as the Nomads. Note the peak around 7B 2 weeks into patch time – probably some late money getting into the game and stocking up still cheap.
- Ark: Two hull dumps, often to buy orders, arrested the upward trajectory. I wonder what someone is thinking when they dump hulls at 5.8B – ostensibly below pre-patch manufacturing cost. I suspect someone impatient got into the Ark speculation business, and does not have the appetite to see his isk grow.
- Rhea: The clear runt of the pack. Prices have been steady at 6B, and there’s very little signs of movement till just a few days ago. Neverthess, these seem to be the most oversupplied.


Given the disparity between build price and sell price, I would suspect that JF production is essentially at a standstill. This means that when hull stocks are exhausted, we can expect an overcorrection, with prices shooting up way above 8B. It won’t happen for a good few months though.

If you have hundreds of billions sloshing around, there could be plays here. Nomad hulls would probably bring you the quickest return, though if too many of you do it, it’ll become the next Ark. Rhea hulls have the best long, long term promise, since they are still at pre-patch prices, but you will really need to be patient.

Yeah... those numbers don't look right.

Lowest with teams, thukkur, amarr st. etc. I could get to, hypothetically, is 7B.

[Citation needed]

Note: citation in the form of a fake spreadsheet may prompt a manual examination of the numbers. Pooping on bad manipulation attempts is my hobby.



I see about 5b on the low end but I'm sure there are options I'm missing and such, just a quick sloppy check, so it's certainly possible.

There was an uncertainty regarding JF's invention chance with them being t2 iirc, but theres gonna be a +2 ME chance for outcome.

Just someone who flies, but doesn't build, jump freighters here, but... It looks to me like JF prices may be driven more by demand influenced by relative fuel costs than anything else, at the moment. Nomads are significantly cheaper to jump per cubic meter of freight hauled than the other ones, and the Anshar has a somewhat larger hold in exchange for using the other inexpensive fuel. Those two are going up in price (although Mynnna's chart shows the Anshar as relatively unprofitable right now) while the other two look pretty much flat.

I have removed a rule breaking post and those quoting it.

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Sensing alot of agre present... Hows life? Still got none?

Looking right now in Jita, so my take on it:

* Anshar is quite flat and crawling towards 6.4b average. 6.799 | 6.288
* Ark is dropping, and around 6.1b average. 6.116 | 5.900
* Nomad looks little odd, which could be recent manipulation. 6.887 | 6.600
* Rhea is in decline, but also around 6.1b average. 6.298 | 6.00

Looking at them a bit longer term:
* Anshar is stable, and has been for a while.
* Ark in slight decline but still rather stable.
* Nomad climbing, with possible recent manipulated.
* Rhea in slight decline, possibly approaching stability.

I was actually quite disappointed when I looked. These markets look rather boring at the moment.