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Christmas Gift Market Speculation?

Author
Brody Chanlin
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2011-12-12 18:03:16 UTC
Anyone willing to share their thoughts on what the Christmas gifts could do to the faction ammo market?

As soon as I looked through them my initial thoughts were unsurprisingly "what is worth more to sell?".

Anyone had similar thoughts and want to share?

My first guess is that the Aurum might be the most profitable avenue but I am far from an expert!
Covert Kitty
SRS Industries
#2 - 2011-12-12 18:27:49 UTC
Am I missing something? Either we have already gotten the Christmas gift in the form of the implant, or it will be some other minor novelty as it always is. How does this have anything to do with faction ammo or aurum? Though if there is some connection with aurum and ammo, then I'm glad I bought this new centum a-type pitchfork and quafe branded tar and feathers.
Goodgodyourface
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2011-12-12 18:29:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Goodgodyourface
Covert Kitty wrote:
Am I missing something? Either we have already gotten the Christmas gift in the form of the implant, or it will be some other minor novelty as it always is. How does this have anything to do with faction ammo or aurum? Though if there is some connection with aurum and ammo, then I'm glad I bought this new centum a-type pitchfork and quafe branded tar and feathers.


Yeah, you are missing something. Log onto your Account Management page on eveonline.com.

@OP I don't see the ammo changing the market up too dramatically, buy orders will drop temporarily as people buy it up... but then bear in mind that some people will also actually use it up.

What interests me most is the Fuel Block section of the gifts...
Brody Chanlin
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2011-12-12 18:40:36 UTC
Goodgodyourface wrote:
Covert Kitty wrote:
Am I missing something? Either we have already gotten the Christmas gift in the form of the implant, or it will be some other minor novelty as it always is. How does this have anything to do with faction ammo or aurum? Though if there is some connection with aurum and ammo, then I'm glad I bought this new centum a-type pitchfork and quafe branded tar and feathers.


Yeah, you are missing something. Log onto your Account Management page on eveonline.com.

@OP I don't see the ammo changing the market up too dramatically, buy orders will drop temporarily as people buy it up... but then bear in mind that some people will also actually use it up.

What interests me most is the Fuel Block section of the gifts...


I was going to include a link to the post about the gifts but figured anyone who reads the forums would also read dev blogs lol.

Fuel blocks are something I am going to look at as soon as I can login.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#5 - 2011-12-12 19:15:31 UTC
While the 2000 AUR reward might seem enticing at first sight (thanks to it looking like it MIGHT be worth anything up to 55.55% of one PLEX, or at the current prices, around 245 mil ISK), you should probably remember that we all got a grand total of 5500 AUR so far, and that the value of AUR if you actually attempt to redeem it into ISK via a NEX offer is far, far below the "purchase value" of AUR, at least for the time being. There's also nothing interesting new to purchase for 7500 AUR. I would sriously doubt you could extract more than 60 mil ISK out of that offer if it was available now, before the inevitable crash, in reality you'll probably be lucky to get even as much as 20 mil ISK out of it in the end.
I'd probably stay away from the AUR offer, all things considered.

On the other hand, there's the fuel blocks-related offers, which at this time seem among the more sensible ones.
First, the 1k each fuelblock offer.
The current costs are around 14-26k per block (depending on race), and they offer 1k of each type of block. That's somewhere around 70 mil ISK right now, give or take, and the fuel block market is far more robust that any of the other markets, plus the entire tower network will be switched to fuel blocks in less than a month after, so if you can manage to not panic-sell like a crazy person, you could very well end up with an extra 50 mil ISK or so in not that long of a time.
The fuel blueprint offer is not quite as glamorous (barely valued at a bit over 40 mil ISK already) and much more likely to have a downward spike.

The implant selections are also looking as if they'd be worth somewhere around similar total values.
The older genolution goes for about 50m on contracts now and may go for more later on (still the second one will most likely go for more).
The set of basic implants are worth around 45 mil and will probably sell for a bit less later on, but not by that much.
The Quafe Zero offer doesn't look like it might be worth that much, under 20 mil ISK total right now, unlikely to go for much more in the future.
The attribute remap offer is hard to quantify in ISK, and it's not sellable.

The ship offers are pretty pathetic ISK-wise, worth 5, 5 and barely 16 mil (likely to crash towards 5 too after Christmas).

The faction ammo thing... hmmm.
Plenty of suboffers to go around, and not knowing what the rest might choose (and with so many possible options), it just as may be that people will not overflow any indivdual market all that much.
The offers are : 10k of each of the 8 small ammos (24 if crystals) PLUS three destroyers (not worth that much but still)
-or- 5k of each of the 8 medium ammos/missiles or 10 of each of the 8 crystals -or- 2.5k of each of the 8 large ammos/missiles or 5 of each of the 8 crystals.
That's 80k small ammo or 192 small crystals or 40k med ammo or 40k med missiles or 80 med crystals or 20k large ammo or 20k large missiles or 40 large crystals.
That also looks as somewhere in the vicinity of 30-60 mil ISK (give or take) depending on individual choices, with a slightly higher chance of falling down in value, especially because out of the 8 ammo types, at least half are barely ever used (and hence selling in tiny quantities), with only a couple really enough in demand to still be worth something.
That offer will probably collapse to well under 20 mil (if even that much) if more than a symbolic amount of people pick it.

...

Overall, I think the fuel blocks offer is one of the most likely to remain somewhat stable in price (or at least recover the fastest).
Either way, it's not that much ISK.
cigarellos
#6 - 2011-12-12 19:18:02 UTC
What would be the reason to select ammo, blueprints or ships over a neural remap when the others you can just buy with ISK?

-cig
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#7 - 2011-12-12 19:18:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Akita T
I wonder if the Neural Remap is a bonus free remap on top of what you have.
Since I already have 3 of those, would I get to see 4 instead ?
I wouldn't want to have that "gift" reset the count to 2 or worse, 1.
ROFL.


P.S. If you're planning to be using the bonus ammo yourself, you should probably go with the crystals. Each navy crystal is good for 4000 shots, so you're getting *9.6 small shots and *8 medium or large shots compared to the "regular" ammo.
Brody Chanlin
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2011-12-12 19:24:58 UTC
Thanks for the post Akita! Interesting analysis and a good read.
Goodgodyourface
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#9 - 2011-12-12 19:26:31 UTC
Akita T wrote:
I wonder if the Neural Remap is a bonus free remap on top of what you have.
Since I already have 3 of those, would I get to see 4 instead ?
I wouldn't want to have that "gift" reset the count to 2 or worse, 1.
ROFL.


This is actually the thing I most want for my main, because I'm not too worried about a bit of ISK. A Neural Remap, though, is something I want (it's theoretically priceless, the one thing available that can't be bought or contracted). But if my old remap timer (which actually expires a few days after the gift comes out, go figure) resets, then this is a silly choice.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#10 - 2011-12-12 19:36:42 UTC
Siigari Kitawa
New Eden Archery Club
#11 - 2011-12-12 21:31:00 UTC
Any older player SHOULD get the remap. Time is money, and there are some things money can't buy (Remaps.)

The glamorous other options are probably all for pilots who want something nice, and for the speculators it's about where the most profit will be.

In my mind (no pun intended) a remap is the ABSOLUTE BEST gift you can get. I can make 50 mil in seconds. I can't get a remap for another year.




fake edit: Anyone notice how much like an item mall that offers page looks and functions like?

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Lauren Hellfury
Super Happy Awesome Fun Times
#12 - 2011-12-12 21:40:31 UTC
Older players aren't likely to be so worried about remaps as they will be maxing out areas rather than starting new areas. This char has 2 remaps available atm and my main still has 3. There's nothing i'm in *that* much of a hurry to get.

Siigari Kitawa wrote:
uch like an item mall that offers page looks and functions like?


I tweeted about that. Looks like a dry-run for the DUST packages. With it due for release in 7 months or so I guess they needed to test the functionality. Item shops are a little bit more important to release bugfree than games.

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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#13 - 2011-12-13 00:36:08 UTC
Now, a TRADEABLE free remap, now that would be something else...
Joe For Sale
Doomheim
#14 - 2011-12-13 00:40:39 UTC
Akita T wrote:
Now, a TRADEABLE free remap, now that would be something else...


Shocked
Aoki Ayumi
project HAVEN
#15 - 2011-12-13 00:59:07 UTC
Siigari Kitawa wrote:

In my mind (no pun intended) a remap is the ABSOLUTE BEST gift you can get. I can make 50 mil in seconds. I can't get a remap for another year.


You do know you get one remap each 12 months, do you?
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#16 - 2011-12-13 01:21:19 UTC
The range on the gifts seems to be 30-60M ISK at the moment.

The CA-1 implant might be the exception to that as it's still running above 60M ISK on contracts.

For the fuel blocks, I think you should plan on them being worth 14k ISK/u long-term, the Gallente blocks are a bit higher at the moment (roughly 25k) if you build from materials. So that would make the fuel block gift worth around 67M ISK.
Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#17 - 2011-12-13 01:26:44 UTC
Personally I put it all in aurum... I'm not in desperate need of a remap for any of my characters and the rest is a pitiful amount of isk. I expect CCP to continue pushing aurum as a currency in the future, so although short term it may be worthless, I should be able to earn a premium on new clothes in the future. Even better when aurum becomes transferrable, I could pool all my accounts' aurum for something like a monocle...




Or I could just buy myself a shiny field coat. Ah, decisions.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#18 - 2011-12-13 02:45:20 UTC
Aoki Ayumi wrote:
Quote:
I can make 50 mil in seconds. I can't get a remap for another year.

You do know you get one remap each 12 months, do you?

That was kind of his/her point. Last time I checked, one year is 12 months.
P.S. Give or take, you know.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#19 - 2011-12-13 02:58:20 UTC
It won't do **** because you'd have to be ******** not to take the remap.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#20 - 2011-12-13 03:46:03 UTC
corestwo wrote:
It won't do **** because you'd have to be ******** not to take the remap.

Do I smell the tinge of concern regarding the overinflated oxytope prices ? Lol
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