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Speculation; What timeframe?

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Aadris
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#1 - 2014-09-28 04:37:14 UTC
Hello, I have built up some isk after a period of station trading and have decided to stop for now and just play my pvp character exclusively for a while. During this inactive period I was thinking of buying a spread of items/stock for the purposes of hopefully making a little passive isk while I'm not trading.

For the people out there that speculate - what sort of timeframe do you have in mind for making a return when you invest in items/goods for? I know I've heard some people talk about two-weeks cycles on items, and there are obviously much longer term movements/fluctuations as well. Is it a good idea for example to invest in items that are currently at their lowest point in a 6-month or 1-year period? Or is this likely to represent a more permanent adjustment in the market since items often change in how they are supplied or how useful they are?

I know people don't give out their secrets freely but I'm often surprised how much people are willing to helps others on this forum with a few tips. Any general advice or potential pitfalls would be appreciated, thanks.

Jace Sarice
#2 - 2014-09-28 04:44:59 UTC
It depends on the good. You can ride plex for the long-term, swing common modules, etc. Your speculative timeframe should be determined by looking at the history of the given item or by trying to predict the market outcome of major patches. Or depending on the amount of ISK you have saved up, by manipulating a particular corner of the market in the long-term.
Cista2
EVE Museum
#3 - 2014-09-28 15:08:18 UTC
My trading consists of buying when expecting 2-4 week cycles in prices. However atm the deflation is so hard that it is suicidal to do so, and I only buy things that I expect will rise within 2-4 months instead. My profit is lower now but meh, I am not going into daytrading again.

My channel: "Signatures" -
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#4 - 2014-09-28 15:32:19 UTC
The timeframe you're willing to hold it should depend on how long you expect it to take to hit a target price and how large the expected profit will be. If you're holding something for longer, ideally you want a larger profit.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#5 - 2014-09-28 22:09:58 UTC
Ideally, the longer, the better. You definitely want to be able to ride out the short-term speculations, so you can always buy cheap and sell high. Also, you want to be able to ride out the changes that CCP makes to the game - the market sometimes takes years to recover from a radical change.

The upcoming change to the co-processor and RCU modules is a good example. I've been sitting on piles of them for years, rather than reprocessing them, and finally sold a good chunk of them when recent market speculation jumped the prices to all-time highs.

Similarly, I've been slowly selling off a pile of Procurers, which originally cost me less than 2M ISK each. And, ofc, a pile of PLEX originally purchased at around 250M ISK.

Remember, too, that, unlike RL, it costs nothing to store items in a hanger, and they never degrade. So, unless you need the ISK for something else, buy cheap and store it away.
Mohandar Sabezan
Doomheim
#6 - 2014-10-06 06:55:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Mohandar Sabezan
In my experience, the larger amount of ISK you're playing with, the longer the time frame.

Sometimes it takes a few weeks to a few months to liquidate a few hundred billion ISK worth of an item.

The market in Eve is just not liquid or large enough, when you are playing with even a mediocre amount of ISK.