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Actual versus perceived risk

Author
CivilWars
Half Empty
xqtywiznalamywmodxfhhopawzpqyjdwrpeptuaenabjawdzku
#41 - 2014-09-10 02:05:05 UTC
Pro TIps wrote:
CivilWars wrote:
Yes, there were, and still are, some dumb/brave/masochistic people that will try to bear with open holes, but guess what, they still exist, and still do stupid stuff.

We have to farm our statics for money, as the anom spawn rate in our C4 historically was 10/week (now it's around half that.)

Not going to spend time rolling every entrance to the statics so we can then spend time farming the combat sites we find, especially since it takes time (and risk) to find the ******* by rolling in the first place.

Anyway, we've been killed by frig gangs from newly-formed frig holes lately as well. The same thing could happen if it were cruisers except, guess what, each time it happens from a frig hole we know it would not have occurred before Hyperion because that frig hole wouldn't have formed in the first place. It's a new source of red ink for us that we can directly see (to say nothing of increased risk due to more connectivity in general.)


You should be glad there are groups like mine, that make ISK in their statics and don't go to every possible effort to avoid interacting with other players. We're not suicidal, but if we think we have a chance to win a fight, we'll take it. If we get ganked by a much larger group, the gankers get a "gf" and we go do something else (because we know you guys love to camp for those repeat kills.)

There won't be groups like mine in W-space for very long unless something is done with loot. I'm not saying take the risk away. It is kinda fun. However, if small groups can't replace their losses, they won't stay around.

M8, you have almost 300k people in your corp, you do not qualify as a "small group". Mkay?

Hidden Fremen liked your forum post:

Jack Miton liked your forum post:

Kirasten
Perkone
Caldari State
#42 - 2014-09-10 03:43:31 UTC
CivilWars wrote:
Pro TIps wrote:
CivilWars wrote:
Yes, there were, and still are, some dumb/brave/masochistic people that will try to bear with open holes, but guess what, they still exist, and still do stupid stuff.

We have to farm our statics for money, as the anom spawn rate in our C4 historically was 10/week (now it's around half that.)

Not going to spend time rolling every entrance to the statics so we can then spend time farming the combat sites we find, especially since it takes time (and risk) to find the ******* by rolling in the first place.

Anyway, we've been killed by frig gangs from newly-formed frig holes lately as well. The same thing could happen if it were cruisers except, guess what, each time it happens from a frig hole we know it would not have occurred before Hyperion because that frig hole wouldn't have formed in the first place. It's a new source of red ink for us that we can directly see (to say nothing of increased risk due to more connectivity in general.)


You should be glad there are groups like mine, that make ISK in their statics and don't go to every possible effort to avoid interacting with other players. We're not suicidal, but if we think we have a chance to win a fight, we'll take it. If we get ganked by a much larger group, the gankers get a "gf" and we go do something else (because we know you guys love to camp for those repeat kills.)

There won't be groups like mine in W-space for very long unless something is done with loot. I'm not saying take the risk away. It is kinda fun. However, if small groups can't replace their losses, they won't stay around.

M8, you have almost 300k people in your corp, you do not qualify as a "small group". Mkay?



Almost fell out of my chair. LOL
Pro TIps
Doomheim
#43 - 2014-09-10 04:06:56 UTC
CivilWars wrote:
M8, you have almost 300k people in your corp, you do not qualify as a "small group". Mkay?

Forum alt best alt.
Kirasten
Perkone
Caldari State
#44 - 2014-09-10 23:04:17 UTC
Pro TIps wrote:
CivilWars wrote:
M8, you have almost 300k people in your corp, you do not qualify as a "small group". Mkay?

Forum alt best alt.


I see a wordy response from a forum alt and I scroll right by.
Bjurn Akely
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#45 - 2014-09-12 13:03:47 UTC
My main activity is hunting in W-space. People have become more cautious since the patch. It's clearly noticeable.

As someone pointed out previously the two main arguments is that it is to dangerous in w-space and that there are too few targets. The patch makes some activities more dangerous, especially for smaller gangs in lower classes of holes. Also, by increasing the number of holes appearing, the traffic in W-space may increase as moving around gets easier. The changes, to me, makes care-bearing in w-space more dangerous.

I think that CCP went in the completely wrong way about this. Well, that's depending on what the goal was with the changes. If they wanted less site-runners, miners and industrialists in w-space I think they succeeded. It's not a question if the risks are real or not, the perceived risk might be enough for people to leave. And I've seen several corps leaving. Might be coincidence I was there and also correlation is not causation. But still.
AgentFiftySix
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#46 - 2014-09-12 18:16:22 UTC
Bjurn Akely wrote:
My main activity is hunting in W-space. People have become more cautious since the patch. It's clearly noticeable.

As someone pointed out previously the two main arguments is that it is to dangerous in w-space and that there are too few targets. The patch makes some activities more dangerous, especially for smaller gangs in lower classes of holes. Also, by increasing the number of holes appearing, the traffic in W-space may increase as moving around gets easier. The changes, to me, makes care-bearing in w-space more dangerous.

I think that CCP went in the completely wrong way about this. Well, that's depending on what the goal was with the changes. If they wanted less site-runners, miners and industrialists in w-space I think they succeeded. It's not a question if the risks are real or not, the perceived risk might be enough for people to leave. And I've seen several corps leaving. Might be coincidence I was there and also correlation is not causation. But still.


If it is true that people are leaving in droves and there are less site-runners then eventually the price of sleeper salvage and relic/data loot will increase in price. This most likely will make people decide to come back in to wormhole space as the "Risk vs. Reward" thing that people like to harp on about will have swung back and weighted the reward more heavily.

These things have a way of working themselves out. We need more than 3 weeks of data before making any conclusions and I say "data" loosely as it is mostly anecdotal evidence of biased individuals.
Meytal
Doomheim
#47 - 2014-09-12 18:33:13 UTC
A big part of W-space is perception. If you feel safe, you'll stay; if you don't, you'll probably leave if you can change your situation. It's part of the reason people avoid Lowsec: people have in their minds that every gate is camped and as soon as they jump in they're going to explode.

The fuss about Hyperion, plus the reversal in the Odyssey K162 mechanics, brought to mind the dangers in W-space. I read more posts by PvE types complaining about the K162 changes than anything else, followed closely by the second static in C4s.

K162 changes + uncloseable (frigate) holes + mass spawn distance when rolling (to try to make yourself safer) + increased wormhole spawn rate overall + second static in C4 systems

If you think about it, those are a lot of changes all at once smacking a PvE-centric group in the face ... which may have been CCP's intention all along.

Oh, and they buffed hisec incursion site availability.
scorchlikeshiswhiskey
Totally Abstract
O X I D E
#48 - 2014-09-12 20:16:28 UTC
AgentFiftySix wrote:
Bjurn Akely wrote:
My main activity is hunting in W-space. People have become more cautious since the patch. It's clearly noticeable.

As someone pointed out previously the two main arguments is that it is to dangerous in w-space and that there are too few targets. The patch makes some activities more dangerous, especially for smaller gangs in lower classes of holes. Also, by increasing the number of holes appearing, the traffic in W-space may increase as moving around gets easier. The changes, to me, makes care-bearing in w-space more dangerous.

I think that CCP went in the completely wrong way about this. Well, that's depending on what the goal was with the changes. If they wanted less site-runners, miners and industrialists in w-space I think they succeeded. It's not a question if the risks are real or not, the perceived risk might be enough for people to leave. And I've seen several corps leaving. Might be coincidence I was there and also correlation is not causation. But still.


If it is true that people are leaving in droves and there are less site-runners then eventually the price of sleeper salvage and relic/data loot will increase in price. This most likely will make people decide to come back in to wormhole space as the "Risk vs. Reward" thing that people like to harp on about will have swung back and weighted the reward more heavily.

These things have a way of working themselves out. We need more than 3 weeks of data before making any conclusions and I say "data" loosely as it is mostly anecdotal evidence of biased individuals.

While your premise is likely to be correct, less available nanoribbons will correlate with a higher price per nanoribbon, the threshold at which that will tilt back to the current situation would be so low that, unless there is more reward, the profitability of non-escalations will quickly fall all over again.
I don't think that the issue of low-class wormhole profitability is new with Hyperion, it just got highlighted by being lumped in with the "people leaving in droves" allegations. Again, Hyperion added more stick and we still haven't seen any increase in the carrot, and I find it likely that even PvPers will fall on tougher times when people start moving out, thus further making wormholes less desirable for yet another type of player.
I'm not saying wormholes are broken, but they aren't completely healthy either and they could use a couple booster shots.
Agent Ninety-Nine
Doomheim
#49 - 2014-09-12 21:01:17 UTC
I skipped through most of this post just to give my 2 cents. I run a corp in a C2 with HS and C3 statics. Lower class wormhole risks have increased tremendously. We barely even run sites now and when we do we scan down the chain looking for c3/c4 content preferably mag and radar sites where in order to gank you they previously had to scan. We see probes and we're cloaked at a safe. This sucks. It sucks horribly.

9 out of 10 days we skip running sites because there is too much activity. I should also add that on average we have 4-5 connecting wormholes now. It's impossible for a small corp to manage. Losses are inevitable, but when your losses outweigh your income you are left with the options of being super-extremely cautious or head out the high sec and find content in k-space which is not what we want to do.

We are not making money in wspace any longer. To really make money you need to run the combat anomalies and we don't run them because the risk is too great. That said we do try. There are the occasional night where we can rake in 500m on anomalies in peace. Pre-Hyperion we could do this unmolested twice a week or more. Now we can do this twice a month. I've got the spreadsheets to prove it.
___________________________________________________

On the other side of this coin one of my greater alts is part of a C5 wormhole corp. The large chains have made our lives better. We can still close our hole (the mechanic isn't that bad) off to the world and run our cap escalated sites in peace. We can run c5's in the chain using marauders and we have a plethora of null exits for pvp.

The changes have ****** life for the small lower class wormhole corps. If you have the skills and bodies to roll your holes and cap escalate home sites you can do your business in mostly the same way you always have.
Derath Ellecon
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#50 - 2014-09-12 21:04:01 UTC
Meytal wrote:
A big part of W-space is perception.


At the end of the day this is key. There is a long standing saying "Perception is reality". At the end of the day this becomes a driving factor in most human brains.


Caleb Seremshur
Commando Guri
Guristas Pirates
#51 - 2014-09-12 21:51:57 UTC
AgentFiftySix wrote:
While observing the tears on this subforum I have come across two points that are continuously complained about and contradictory. On the one hand everyone is complaining that W-space is empty and getting emptier and they scan 2000000 wormholes (The degree of my exageration was carefully calculated from the number of tears I have observed on the subject) and never see anyone. On the other hand there is an equal amount of tears about how risky it is to do anything due to the increase in wormholes and that people are being continuously ganked. You can't really have it both ways, you can't complain that w-space is empty and then turn around and complain that there are players lurking behind every frig hole to gank you and your risk has increased 10,000 fold (again calculated based on number of tears observed).

Please pick non-contradictory lines of tears in future otherwise it seems like you are just complaining for the sake of complaining.


Sounds like the coffee question. People idealise a certain way of things but their actual consumed product or content is often much weaker.
Methaias
Venture League
#52 - 2014-09-13 01:01:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Methaias
TLDR: but...

Being in a corp that left WH space pre-Hyperion, we did so not because of the actual risk (as it was pre-emptive).

We did so because of the effort it would have taken to viably mitigate that risk, or be prepared to defend against it, without a larger benefit to outweigh it. Ive been in a low man corp that got scoutvaded and evicted from a WH in the past and the loss to me was in the billions. Its just not worth risking loosing that much again when it takes quite a while longer to make it in a mid grade hole (C2 C4/HS static). I dont think id have left if I was still in a C6 alliance though, there was a lot more to work with.

Without a consolidated force at the time across multiple timezones it wasnt realistic to expect a positive outcome, we were struggling to take advantage of our connection regularly as it was. Yes, theres a lack of carrot there, im just not sure why WH changes were a priority vs the low end C classes, thats effectively what it is. The big dogs have all the megabucks.

To reply directly to the OP though; IMO percieved risk and actual risk are the same in WH space, most of the time you wont see the boogeyman coming until hes sitting on your bed, that is IF hes any good.... and most full time WH-ers are (ie covops scouting a war party), if your not good in a WH your toast.


Also: I really like the idea of the frig WHs going to different NEW class of WH for "frigs only" that could have effectively created the friggy pvp content I heard they wanted while letting the po folk stay about their business, which wasnt really hurting anyone and largely helped the market supply of WH only stuff.... Indy improvements were a big deal last patch werent they?

Fly safe, happy hunting, and may your deathsplosion be brilliant and all encompassing.

Pancake King
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#53 - 2014-09-13 06:21:32 UTC
CivilWars wrote:
Since everyone seems to want to see stats and graphs for how terrible w-space is now I have a question for those still living in w-space. How many have actually had something negative happen to you as a direct result of the Hyperion changes


Three pages in and so far it appears to be one friend of a friend, and one out of corp alt.
CivilWars
Half Empty
xqtywiznalamywmodxfhhopawzpqyjdwrpeptuaenabjawdzku
#54 - 2014-09-13 13:37:02 UTC
But there are 10 man T3 gangs in every hole. Moloney said so.

But based on the feedback here, or lack thereof, I am now claiming Rolled Out(and Tri) kings of w-space since by these reports we have the first, and possibly only, post Hyperion hole rolling dread kill. It's good to be king.

Hidden Fremen liked your forum post:

Jack Miton liked your forum post:

Bjurn Akely
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#55 - 2014-09-14 14:55:28 UTC
Pancake King wrote:
CivilWars wrote:
Since everyone seems to want to see stats and graphs for how terrible w-space is now I have a question for those still living in w-space. How many have actually had something negative happen to you as a direct result of the Hyperion changes


Three pages in and so far it appears to be one friend of a friend, and one out of corp alt.


We're never going to get any credible data about this. All we can hope for is anecdotes. They'l never be evidence, just stories. Hopefully good ones. Lol
God Arthie
Lowlife.
Snuffed Out
#56 - 2014-09-17 12:01:52 UTC
Hello.

I also just wanted to add a few words about this, if you check our killboard you will find out that we live in a small wh with c3 and HS.

Derath Ellecon wrote:

1. WH spawn distance. Honestly I don't see how this changed much in terms of rolling. Anything from a BS to cap will likely land outside jump range. But the bottom line is unless it was the roll that collapses the WH you were generally at a similar risk. For example if I'm using an Orca, and due to bad scouting I jump thru the WH onto a gang, I'm dead either way. Pre patch I would jump back and get followed. Post patch I die on the other side. For fights I really don't know as I've never been a part of a Cap level fight on the WH. It does make a bunch of other comps hard if not impossible to use, such as an RR gang, as you land much further apart. That being said, this change does mix things up a bit so I think it was a more valid change than some of the others.

To start, you are incorrect, pre patch you could jump back, and have some cloak time to assemble a small fleet on the other side, and defend how you would like it to, it's your ground and you could be able to kill a few gankers when you bs/orca dies, after hyperion, you may not even be able to get to the hole.

On the other hand, I may say that we still use orca's to close bad static's (by bad i mean 0-4combat annomalies) but ONLY when we have eyes on every hole and there is no activity.

Some state that the time needed to roll the hole is not making a big difference, but when you roll multiple holes to get at least a decent hole with 5~7 combat anomalies while you only have a few members online the time counts, and I've seen that many people just don't want to waste hours to farm a few anomalies so they just leave to play some other game.

We also get really few(3 days to get 1 if i'm not mistaken) combat anomalies in our home, and those are done really fast.

So in my opinion and given my experience, I'm saying that we are still living in WH but are not getting any profit, so after the patch OUR life in WH is worse.
Ilaister
Binary Aesthetics
#57 - 2014-09-17 19:36:33 UTC
A NoHo proteus decloaked on our hole rolling dread a couple days after Hyperion landed, we got him out okay though.

We've caught people rolling holes and murdered them, no caps though; main difference being the ease with which you can blap them 'wrong side'. Not an awful lot of difference here, but a hole cycle is now more of an op, and far less viable in off-timezones.

We've murdered a couple different groups through frigate holes, closing though, not siterunning. A frig comp capable of busting open RR chains and withstanding sleepers with our ~10 men average gangs is currently beyond us.

We have also had the X00 holes display lovely lovely pew at us, like a bunch of fresh faced kittens behind bulletproof glass. Last one held a chance at a threeway so threw a covops through and scanned beyond to K to attempt to connect via a different branch of our chain to get real ships in. We weren't fast enough this time unfortunately and the involved parties tore eachother apart before we could make it but I think this mechanic holds promise.

WH effect changes are positive all round, as long as you stay away from Cerberus gangs in Wolf Rayets.

K162 changes ironically seem to have made the smallest difference so far - nobody rats anymore. Most unexpected.



Alzuule
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#58 - 2014-09-18 08:48:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Alzuule
living in a c5 is as awesome as ever, plenty of nulls for small gang/solo content, low/hs connections enough to easily be able to bring in supplies several times a week and so far we have been having ( while ive been online ) 2 GFs with other wormhole pvp entities a week. I dont see any problem at all for c5-c6 class space with the hyperion changes unless you are either a farming corp that doesnt pvp or a tiny corp that probably should go live somewhere else where you dont need a group to do stuff.

changes have made it easier to sometimes get the drop on rolling carriers/dreads but it have still mostly been people that didnt know that we were in the chain that have lost rolling things to us, nothing really changed much.
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