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High end mineral crisis

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Zetaomega333
High Flyers
#1 - 2014-08-27 04:31:57 UTC
So im sure lots of you have noticed how the 2 highest end minerals are next to worthless. Ark is on the bottom of the list and bist is in the middle.

Something needs to be done as the rarest ores arnt worth **** anymore. Nocx is worth more than zydrine.

What are some ideas on what to do?

I had a personal suggestion of trippling the zydrine and mega amount used in capital components. Mind you im a big builder of capitals so this would effect me in production, but it would also make nullsec ore worth somthing again.
Aerie Evingod
Midwest Miners LLC
#2 - 2014-08-27 05:13:49 UTC
Let the market sort it all out. Just because the ABC ores are not worth the most doesn't mean there is anything wrong. The changes to refining means mineral value is not the best indication of value.
Zetaomega333
High Flyers
#3 - 2014-08-27 05:19:11 UTC
Aerie Evingod wrote:
Let the market sort it all out. Just because the ABC ores are not worth the most doesn't mean there is anything wrong. The changes to refining means mineral value is not the best indication of value.



Well the way the tiers of the minerals work the megacyte and zydrine should cost more than the previous tiers.
Super Chair
Caldari Colonial Defense Ministry
Templis CALSF
#4 - 2014-08-27 07:59:08 UTC
With bluefests, eyes on incoming traffic to your area in null, bubbles, etc its actually safer to mine in nullsec than other regions of space. This results in more people mining for longer periods of time there which means that the ABC ores will deflate to less than some of the other ores.
Tij Lamor
Bluenose Trading
#5 - 2014-08-27 10:37:30 UTC
If you believe the market is mispricing these minerals - look at it as a buying opportunity! Over time the forces of supply and demand will normalize prices. If CCP wants to speed up the process they can reduce the number of asteroids or the amount ore in each asteroid until balance is achieved.
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#6 - 2014-08-27 11:43:17 UTC
Welcome to the free market.

People have over supplied the market for the highends, and undersupplied the lowends.

So the lowends are worth more than you'd have thought they were.

Woo! CSM XI!

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Ginger Barbarella
#7 - 2014-08-27 15:48:40 UTC
The market will do what the market will do. Suggesting that CCP get involved (which I suspect you're doing) is a bad move and (with any luck) will never happen.

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Bronson Hughes
The Knights of the Blessed Mother of Acceleration
#8 - 2014-08-27 16:45:59 UTC
The market can also fluctuate a lot based on whether miners are selling ore raw, refining minerals and selling, or keeping the minerals to build stuff. For example, if nullsec blocs shift away from building ships towards selling more ore, the market can get flooded right quick, driving prices down.

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Mr Omniblivion
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#9 - 2014-08-27 17:00:35 UTC
The most impactful reason that high end minerals are plummeting right now is because of the nerf to compression.

A huge portion of all minerals are consumed by supercap builders in nullsec. When they can't reliably get supplies of low end minerals (compressed ore!), their production line stops. This, in turn, reduces the demand for all minerals. High-ends are being hit the hardest because they're still being supplied at a constant rate from null at the same or better efficiency as before (due to the refining changes)- especially compared to the low ends that are now largely refined at "bad" stations in high sec.

It's unclear how long this will last. If high sec miners start compressing more ore and selling the compressed ore, demand might pick up again.

I'm personally in favor of CCP redistributing the spawns from null industrial upgrade sites, although this might be overkill once highsec realizes to sell their ore compressed.
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#10 - 2014-08-27 19:39:54 UTC
I heard the veldspar rocks in nullsec are gigantic
Adunh Slavy
#11 - 2014-08-27 22:04:27 UTC
Aerie Evingod wrote:
Let the market sort it all out. Just because the ABC ores are not worth the most doesn't mean there is anything wrong. The changes to refining means mineral value is not the best indication of value.



I would suggest the market is doing just that. The market side of things is just fine, it i the supply side and the demand (utility) of minerals where the problems are.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Zifrian
The Pannion Domin
Ghostbirds
#12 - 2014-08-27 22:13:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Zifrian
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Welcome to the free market.

People have over supplied the market for the highends, and undersupplied the lowends.

So the lowends are worth more than you'd have thought they were.

But the skill system does not reflect free markets - it reflects a clear hierarchy of ore values determined by CCP. You can't claim free markets if all things are not generally equal and while EVE has a great market, much of it is centrally controlled by CCP's overall design decisions.

If all that mattered was market forces, then all processing skills would have the same base training time. Furthermore, right in the descriptions of the ores for ABC it talks about their rarity, the same with Mercoxit. Finally, the invention costs and times for making ABC crystals also do not conform to equal market forces as they take longer to produce than veld, scord, etc. The system isn't reflecting how CCP envisioned it and it doesn't seem like "rebalancing" is having the intended effect.

Perhaps a better system would be to set training times equal (Rank 3), allow all ores to spawn in all systems, and scale all ore spawn sizes to to increase from High to Low to Null sec. So nullsec would have the best ore access but because of sov bills and the cost of living in null, it fits greater risk = greater reward. Also, this way markets can determine the best ore to mine based on its refining rates instead of constantly mucking with the system to achieve some "balance" that players will mess up anyway.

I'm sure there are other ideas out there and I know people who mine in highsec will hate the idea that "null gets buffed again" but I think we can all agree something should be done.

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Netan MalDoran
Sinister Intent
#13 - 2014-08-27 23:40:23 UTC
Super Chair wrote:
With bluefests, eyes on incoming traffic to your area in null, bubbles, etc its actually safer to mine in nullsec than other regions of space. This results in more people mining for longer periods of time there which means that the ABC ores will deflate to less than some of the other ores.


Not entirely true, sometimes those bubbles guarding your gates are being guarded by the REDS, lol. Plus known hotdropping cloakies everywhere and roaming gangs....why do you think I left null?

"Your security status has been lowered." - Hell yeah it was!

Falcon's truth

Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#14 - 2014-08-27 23:44:25 UTC
Historically, this isn't anything new. I seem to recall a similar situation years ago. [Historians feel free to correct me.]

Also demand for low-ends has probably increased with the loss of mineral-compression (425mm Railguns). I doubt compressed ore is keeping-up with the demand for it. [Market analysts feel free to correct me.]
Shelom Severasse
Project Omega Industries
Evictus.
#15 - 2014-08-28 00:33:44 UTC
Zetaomega333 wrote:
So im sure lots of you have noticed how the 2 highest end minerals are next to worthless. Ark is on the bottom of the list and bist is in the middle.

Something needs to be done as the rarest ores arnt worth **** anymore. Nocx is worth more than zydrine.

What are some ideas on what to do?

I had a personal suggestion of trippling the zydrine and mega amount used in capital components. Mind you im a big builder of capitals so this would effect me in production, but it would also make nullsec ore worth somthing again.

mine dark ochre if nocxium is worth the most?
Falin Whalen
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#16 - 2014-08-28 00:55:40 UTC
Shelom Severasse wrote:
Zetaomega333 wrote:
So im sure lots of you have noticed how the 2 highest end minerals are next to worthless. Ark is on the bottom of the list and bist is in the middle.

Something needs to be done as the rarest ores arnt worth **** anymore. Nocx is worth more than zydrine.

What are some ideas on what to do?

I had a personal suggestion of trippling the zydrine and mega amount used in capital components. Mind you im a big builder of capitals so this would effect me in production, but it would also make nullsec ore worth somthing again.

mine dark ochre if nocxium is worth the most?

Hemorphite has the most refine-able units per m3, while Dark Ochre has more units per refine batch it has a larger volume per unit than Hemorphite and therefore a lower fraction per m3 than Hemprphite. Basically you can fit more refine batches in a given volume with Hemorphite and get more per given volume than the ore that has the most when you refine on a per batch basis.

"it's only because of their stupidity that they're able to be so sure of themselves." The Trial - Franz Kafka 

Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#17 - 2014-08-28 03:33:41 UTC
Current changes have shaken the market a fair bit, once it settles the balance may be fine. However, I do not believe this is the case. I see several significant factors, that add up to a major change in supply of ores. Supply of low ends over all has dropped over all, while supply of high ends has remained steady, or even increased. Why?

-- Mining barges recently received a nerf. CC saw that Retrievers and Mackinaws were significantly more popular than the other mining ships. they were just to good for semi AFK mining. the large ore hold was enough of an advantage that the small increase in yield over the Coventor and HULK was not worth the drop in ore hold capacity, at least not for the majority of high sec miners. So CCP nerfed the yield of the mining ships creating a larger gap. Even if after this nerf, we had the exact same number of miners out mining for the exact same amounts of time, we would still see a significant drop in supply based only on the reduction of the mining yield of those ships. Once you factor in some quitting due to a drop in profitability, we have a notable drop in supply from high sec miners.

-- We have a change in null sec politics, there has been a significant increase in rental systems, as several null sec entities take advantage of rental income they never bothered with before. It is a fact that Null sec miners do not bother with low end ores, so with the increase in rental systems out in null. We have many former high sec miners, moving out to null, switching from mining low ends in high sec, to mining high ends in null sec. This not only causes a reduction in the supply of low end minerals, but increases the supply of high end minerals.

--We also have an impact from the reprocessing changes, and nerf to mineral compression. It is now more profitable to compress low end ores, and ship them out to null sec for reprocessing. This has further reduced the supply of low end minerals in high sec.

These factors on there own do not have a significant impact, but with them all happening at the same time , it has added up to a fairly significant shift. So what can be done to offset this shift in balance between high end and low end ores?

If anything I would say give the low end mineral content of the high end ores another little bump.

Adding significant low end minerals to A,B,C, ores rather than the trace amounts they had before, helped a lot, but maybe, with additional recent changes, it is now not enough. bumping it up a little more could be the right solution. I believe it would accomplish two things.

First of all, it will mean that whenever the price of low end minerals spikes, the high end ores will benefit from that spike as well keeping them on top, value wise.

Secondly, adding even more low end minerals to the high end ores will slightly increase the supply of low end minerals in null sec from the locally mined A,B,C,s reducing demand for low end minerals being imported from high sec by a small amount. The more the low end mineral content is increased, the more it will shift the balance.

For some time now I have seen low sec ores having the highest value, and I believe it should stay that way. After all, mining in low sec is far more dangerous than mining is sov null where most of the the A,B,C,s are found. however, we should not see the value of low end, high sec ores, exceed that of the high end, A,B,C, ores. This is a sign that the balance needs some tweeking.
Zetaomega333
High Flyers
#18 - 2014-08-28 06:34:09 UTC
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
Current changes have shaken the market a fair bit, once it settles the balance may be fine. However, I do not believe this is the case. I see several significant factors, that add up to a major change in supply of ores. Supply of low ends over all has dropped over all, while supply of high ends has remained steady, or even increased. Why?

-- Mining barges recently received a nerf. CC saw that Retrievers and Mackinaws were significantly more popular than the other mining ships. they were just to good for semi AFK mining. the large ore hold was enough of an advantage that the small increase in yield over the Coventor and HULK was not worth the drop in ore hold capacity, at least not for the majority of high sec miners. So CCP nerfed the yield of the mining ships creating a larger gap. Even if after this nerf, we had the exact same number of miners out mining for the exact same amounts of time, we would still see a significant drop in supply based only on the reduction of the mining yield of those ships. Once you factor in some quitting due to a drop in profitability, we have a notable drop in supply from high sec miners.

-- We have a change in null sec politics, there has been a significant increase in rental systems, as several null sec entities take advantage of rental income they never bothered with before. It is a fact that Null sec miners do not bother with low end ores, so with the increase in rental systems out in null. We have many former high sec miners, moving out to null, switching from mining low ends in high sec, to mining high ends in null sec. This not only causes a reduction in the supply of low end minerals, but increases the supply of high end minerals.

--We also have an impact from the reprocessing changes, and nerf to mineral compression. It is now more profitable to compress low end ores, and ship them out to null sec for reprocessing. This has further reduced the supply of low end minerals in high sec.

These factors on there own do not have a significant impact, but with them all happening at the same time , it has added up to a fairly significant shift. So what can be done to offset this shift in balance between high end and low end ores?

If anything I would say give the low end mineral content of the high end ores another little bump.

Adding significant low end minerals to A,B,C, ores rather than the trace amounts they had before, helped a lot, but maybe, with additional recent changes, it is now not enough. bumping it up a little more could be the right solution. I believe it would accomplish two things.

First of all, it will mean that whenever the price of low end minerals spikes, the high end ores will benefit from that spike as well keeping them on top, value wise.

Secondly, adding even more low end minerals to the high end ores will slightly increase the supply of low end minerals in null sec from the locally mined A,B,C,s reducing demand for low end minerals being imported from high sec by a small amount. The more the low end mineral content is increased, the more it will shift the balance.

For some time now I have seen low sec ores having the highest value, and I believe it should stay that way. After all, mining in low sec is far more dangerous than mining is sov null where most of the the A,B,C,s are found. however, we should not see the value of low end, high sec ores, exceed that of the high end, A,B,C, ores. This is a sign that the balance needs some tweeking.


The problem with this has and always will be the fact that the lowsec ores are in very low supply in lowsec. Its next to impossible to mine a decent amount since lowsec is far more dangerous than highsec or nullsec to mine in. And all the lowsec minerals come from nullsec.

As it is the highends have such a pityfully low usage, In one mining op we can mine enough zydrine and megacyte for a supercarrier, let alone well over 12 carriers. I still think a increase to capital usage of zydrine and megacyte would see less of those minerals shipping to empire, creating less of them there and then raising the price. But forthe second highest tier mineral to be worth less than the 3rd is just silly. I started playing right before drone poo nerf happened and i have been watching these prices spiral down, while yes some lowends like trit and pyer went up nocx skyrocketed recently.

As for those quoting nullsec politics, they havnt changed in around 6 months so i dont see how that would have a major effect now. Yes the compression changes did effect it but when i was compressing supers and titans of minerals in jita i was still using a pitifull amount of zydrine and megacyte.. There really needs to be more of a sink for those 2 minerals, mining is allready one of the lowest paid professions but its starting to get far worse.
SJ Astralana
Syncore
#19 - 2014-08-28 07:18:25 UTC  |  Edited by: SJ Astralana
I would just like to inject that I love (in a middle school gym rope sort of way) fundamental value shifts of basic commodities, because the proper response to that from a producer's standpoint is virtually never accounted for in spreadsheets and is emphatically not accounted for by the popular 3rd party tools. There is a specific measured appropriate reaction to inflation and deflation from a production perspective, and in this game I've seen it addressed precisely once.

https://dbsoft.atlassian.net/wiki/display/EPM/Item+Cost+Trends

Hyperdrive your production business: Eve Production Manager

Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#20 - 2014-08-28 12:51:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Bugsy VanHalen
Zetaomega333 wrote:


The problem with this has and always will be the fact that the lowsec ores are in very low supply in lowsec. Its next to impossible to mine a decent amount since lowsec is far more dangerous than highsec or nullsec to mine in. And all the lowsec minerals come from nullsec.

As it is the highends have such a pityfully low usage, In one mining op we can mine enough zydrine and megacyte for a supercarrier, let alone well over 12 carriers. I still think a increase to capital usage of zydrine and megacyte would see less of those minerals shipping to empire, creating less of them there and then raising the price. But forthe second highest tier mineral to be worth less than the 3rd is just silly. I started playing right before drone poo nerf happened and i have been watching these prices spiral down, while yes some lowends like trit and pyer went up nocx skyrocketed recently.

As for those quoting nullsec politics, they havnt changed in around 6 months so i dont see how that would have a major effect now. Yes the compression changes did effect it but when i was compressing supers and titans of minerals in jita i was still using a pitifull amount of zydrine and megacyte.. There really needs to be more of a sink for those 2 minerals, mining is allready one of the lowest paid professions but its starting to get far worse.

It takes time for the impact of some of these changes to show. For example the CFC never used to rent out space, now they have a large rental alliance, renting out a significant number of systems. most renters have significant groups of miners looking to mine null sec ores.

As you say, null sec politics has not changed in a while.

However once the CFC and other decided to focus more on renter income, it took a while for those systems to get rented out. then a while longer for the new ocupants to get settled and get organised. then get their mining ops going well to produce a steady stream of high end minerals to high sec.

There is only a limited number of miners in the game, when high sec miners leave high sec to go mine in null sec they not only add to the volume of high end minerals being mined, the volume of low ends they used to mine are also removed from the supply.

A handfull of miners would not have much impact, but when you are talking 15-20 corps full of miners moving out to newly rented space, the impact is much more significat.

As I said though, even this on its own would not be a huge impact, but when combined with several other minor factors, the overall impact is significant.

A significant increase in high end minerals required for capital builds would have a possitive effect, however the problem I see happening is, if high end ores are worth way more than low ends to mine, there is more motivation for high sec miners to move to null. I believe this is a very good thing, however this would only result in futher drop in supply of low end minerals, and increase the supply of high ends.

This is why I believe adding more low end minerals to high end ores is a better option. it will increase the value of null sec ore, without droping the overall supply of low end minerals. High end ores should have the higher values, but it is the drop in the supply of low end minerals that causes the price to rise. So if the value of high end ores can be increased without dropping the supply of low end minerals the balance can be maintained. This can be done by further increasing the content of low end minerals in high end ores.

true trit and pyrite are not in to bad shape right now. Mexallon could use a boost in supply, as well as Isogen. And maybe even nocxium and zydrine content in A,B,C,s could use a small boost. Although zydrine is not really a low end mineral, some of the ores it comes from are found in random ore anomilies that do spawn in high sec. and considering low sec is not really suited to mining due to the high risk, the supply of these could be easily be increased thru additional content in null sec ores.
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