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Higher plex prices = Less RMT? (Also a CCP™ conspiracy theory)

Author
Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#1 - 2011-12-08 03:14:49 UTC
Now, let me start by stating the obvious that there are a few problems with EVE, including, but not limited to:

-RMT
-Botting in general
-Isk inflation
-My current inebriation

As a user browsing MD, you should also be aware of a significant manipulation of PLEX prices in the near past, peaking at about 500m. As you may also be aware, CCP has publicly stated they are willing to intervene into the PLEX market. Now, the attraction of the average bot (we'll assume a null-sec sanctum grinding one) is that it can pump out a few billion per month, no problemo. This translates into maybe $200/month at 500m/plex($15) and assuming no isk lost due to black market or laundering prices. However, prices have not been at 500 forever, and cannot remain there without continued manipulation or a lot more inflation. I'd say they're more likely to equal out at 400m. That would mean an 'average' bot is bringing in $235 or even $240 dollars a month... a 20% increase. Now, people looking to buy isk have two options:

Shady ******* russian websites
PLEX

We'll assume the former gets some customers due to sheer ignorance (approved gold selling? IN MY INTERNET SPACESHIPS? It's more likely... etc.). However, for the most part they have to offer an incentive to buy your isk with them... More isk per buck. Get where I'm going? **** yeah you do. CCP manipulated plex prices upwards to see what effect it would have on russian bot networks. Maybe even to try to wipe out or largely reduce RMT effects.


Crazy? Maybe.

http://i.imgur.com/OR6L2.jpg
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#2 - 2011-12-08 07:39:51 UTC
Loraine Gess wrote:
Now, let me start by stating the obvious that there are a few problems with EVE, including, but not limited to:

-RMT
-Botting in general
-Isk inflation
-My current inebriation

As a user browsing MD, you should also be aware of a significant manipulation of PLEX prices in the near past, peaking at about 500m. As you may also be aware, CCP has publicly stated they are willing to intervene into the PLEX market. Now, the attraction of the average bot (we'll assume a null-sec sanctum grinding one) is that it can pump out a few billion per month, no problemo. This translates into maybe $200/month at 500m/plex($15) and assuming no isk lost due to black market or laundering prices. However, prices have not been at 500 forever, and cannot remain there without continued manipulation or a lot more inflation. I'd say they're more likely to equal out at 400m. That would mean an 'average' bot is bringing in $235 or even $240 dollars a month... a 20% increase. Now, people looking to buy isk have two options:

Shady ******* russian websites
PLEX

We'll assume the former gets some customers due to sheer ignorance (approved gold selling? IN MY INTERNET SPACESHIPS? It's more likely... etc.). However, for the most part they have to offer an incentive to buy your isk with them... More isk per buck. Get where I'm going? **** yeah you do. CCP manipulated plex prices upwards to see what effect it would have on russian bot networks. Maybe even to try to wipe out or largely reduce RMT effects.


Crazy? Maybe.

http://i.imgur.com/OR6L2.jpg


You can't prove it.
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2011-12-08 07:46:22 UTC
Considering that CCP dropped in a PLEX discount which then drove down the PLEX price, I say you need more tinfoil for your hat.

It was normal pre-expansion speculation amplified by Incursion-sourced ISK and ISK from massive wallets of old bittervets that resubbed due to CCP caring about their game again.
Hemmo Paskiainen
#4 - 2011-12-08 08:17:15 UTC
did u remember that 75 man ccp fleet with atleast 2 plexes in each cargo hold?

Ether they had to buy 150 pexes or spawned isk (and $$) in the game with their dev tools

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

Jahso Kuhl
United Space Corp with Honorable Intersts
#5 - 2011-12-08 09:15:20 UTC
If the Plex-market is manipulated or not is a matter of faith we put in CCP not to mess around with it.

just imagine a scenario in which you were CCP (aka Gods of eve) :
you gave people the chance to sell additional Real money (aka Plex) in thier virtual world. what does prevent you from creating more virtual money for yourselve to buy some of the plexes and destroy them?
So that less players can buy the Plex to pay thier account with it .... it would be a win-win situation for you because you got real money from the Plex sellers and from the people who cant afford the remaining Plexes and also pay with real money.


but since there are only 2422 Plex available that would be more like burning ants with a magnifying glass. (if the ants realize who causes that bright burning light, they would unite and kill the one with the lense)


the plex market is broken and there is no way to fix it.

btw the plex price was to low a long time ....
once it was possible to pay an account with just the datacores that one char would generate out of 5 R&D agents.
is that fair? skill a month, grind some standing and get an account for free?
Dibsi Dei
Salamyhkaisten kilta
#6 - 2011-12-08 14:40:28 UTC
CCP seems to care more about the amount of subbed people so they keep putting up plex sales to keep prices down.
Ilinea
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#7 - 2011-12-08 16:06:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Ilinea
Of course does CCP care most about the number of subscribed people. That is their business and their number one priority.

And what if CCP does manipulate the Plex market by buying out Plexes or by other ways? Plex is not equal real money. Once you buy a plex, you buy an ingame item with no real-money value, since you can't legally trade it back into money. That is in no way different then Free2Play-MMO's that offer you to buy gold (or some item) with real money. It's CCP's game and they make the rules in the game. As that, they can do whatever they please with it, as you have agreed to when you signed up.

Other games and virtual worlds do this kind of "manipulation" every day. In one, where trading ingame currency back into money is even possible (Second Life) the company admits to throw currency into the exchange to keep the value where they want it to. It's usual practice everywhere.

As for RMT, I don't think the value of Plex is going to have a big impact on RMT. If plex changes, the RMT dealers can and will change their conditions too.

They told me to mine... and I started to mine, the market ;)

Florestan Bronstein
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#8 - 2011-12-08 17:07:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Florestan Bronstein
Ilinea wrote:
As for RMT, I don't think the value of Plex is going to have a big impact on RMT. If plex changes, the RMT dealers can and will change their conditions too.

Many RMT sites give you the option to buy PLEX instead of ISK anyways.

The point is that if PLEX prices rise faster than the ISK making capability of players/bots the RMTers will have to invest more resources for the same return if they decrease their ISK prices accordingly.

To be honest I think it would be a better approach to reduce RMT profits by trying to drive up the risk premium demanded by ISK buyers.
Don't just remove RMT ISK, hand out well-publicized bans to the ISK buying accounts (sellers get banned already).
That way customers would demand lower prices to make up for the additional risk - ideally they would only be willing to buy at prices that are lower than what the RMT outlet could operate profitably at.
Ujagar Sommdax
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2011-12-09 15:11:45 UTC
The real manipulation happened a few years back when they upped the prices of GTC's. This was before plex. IT used to be very profitable traning chars and reselling, for 100% profit. 90 days GTC was 400-500m, resell char for 1b roughly. Good times. Prices jumped majorly at some point. Bad for business.