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CCP NERFED INVENTION AGAIN!!!!

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Macewind Kenobii
EVIL LEGION ARMADA
GANKERS BAR ALLIANCE
#1 - 2014-08-13 05:49:26 UTC
I invented drones My skills are 50%

I Run 100 jobs and only 20 bpc t2 susessful!!!!!! Shocked

before fuking crius patch i run 100 jobs and 40 - 60 bpc t2 sussesful

ccp first nerf loot missions,loot dedcomplex
now invention
Next nerf ? Maybe incursions? Wh?

Heyyy ccp you patchs are scrap...
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2014-08-13 06:19:30 UTC
While I'm not one of tinfoil hat types and while I do not have firm data, I have also observed some oddball invention runs... 20 copies of LSE II, 3 success and the likes. With ~49% success probability listead.

I guess I should pull the history and do the math over the past few hundred invention jobs, but :effort:
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#3 - 2014-08-13 06:32:17 UTC
Given how much faster and easier it is to invent, do you really care?
SJ Astralana
Syncore
#4 - 2014-08-13 06:49:46 UTC
Statistics is a ***** Lol

Hyperdrive your production business: Eve Production Manager

Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2014-08-13 07:07:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Elena Thiesant
Macewind Kenobii wrote:
I invented drones My skills are 50%

I Run 100 jobs and only 20 bpc t2 susessful!!!!!! Shocked


Cool, now keep track for the next 900 and report back afterwards.

CCP obviously hates you and only you, they must have put some code in to reduce your invention success rates specifically.

Since Crius, ammo inventions (47.6% success) for one char
Success: 65
Failed: 43

Edit, after delivering another 10, make that
Success: 67
Failed: 51

Welcome to Statistics.
suid0
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#6 - 2014-08-13 07:24:27 UTC
I did an invention run the other day and got 9/10 successful.. thank you CCP for this nerf, best yet.

the entire enemy support fleet is dead except for one interdictor a titan could easily finish off with drones  - Commander Ted
Ms Forum Alt
Doomheim
#7 - 2014-08-13 07:59:12 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:

Cool, now keep track for the next 900 and report back afterwards.


You know how much bs I think this kind of thing is? It wouldn't surprise me if there's some dicking about going on server side by CCP on this, or some basic errors. For example, it's very easy to make a random number generator or use an existing generator that doesn't have a uniform distribution. So I tend to take the probabilities with a pinch of salt.

Regardless, after 100 runs I would expect it to be very close to the average as it would tend towards it with each run you do, unless the dice are loaded or broken, in which case I would expect it to behave chaotically as occasionally reported here.
erg cz
Federal Jegerouns
#8 - 2014-08-13 08:02:43 UTC
suid0 wrote:
I did an invention run the other day and got 9/10 successful.. thank you CCP for this nerf, best yet.


It is because you are minmatar and OP is caldari. Caldari are bad guys. So CCP made a hidden index for all caldari systems, to make them less populated. They want industry to create a "landscape" and at this moment caldari space is one big china, if you look at the industry map. Caldari installation costs are highest, their chances for successfull invention are crap and they are loosing in their civiliar war.

Now seriosly: I think it is like exploration loot. One day you have 9/10, next day you have 2/10 like the OP.

Absolutely free head start for newcomers!. Just click the link and get extra 250 000 SP!
Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
#9 - 2014-08-13 10:58:44 UTC
Macewind Kenobii wrote:
I invented drones My skills are 50%

I Run 100 jobs and only 20 bpc t2 susessful!!!!!! Shocked

before fuking crius patch i run 100 jobs and 40 - 60 bpc t2 sussesful

ccp first nerf loot missions,loot dedcomplex
now invention
Next nerf ? Maybe incursions? Wh?

Heyyy ccp you patchs are scrap...


Thanks for your luck, now I know why I had so many succesful T2-battleship BPCs with about 20% chance. I'm not even sure I can build that many T2-battleships! But if I ever get around to building them, I will have to thank you again for the billions your bad luck has made me. Pirate

And now that we've come back from joke town, please learn statistics before posting again.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#10 - 2014-08-13 11:41:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Tau Cabalander
For those keeping score Brock Nelson won the Crius first-post.

EDIT: It is a running joke in the Science & Industry forum that every expansion someone will post about invention chance being nerfed. At the reported rate of nerfing, invention chance should have reached zero years ago. Posts about invention chance nerfing are no longer taken seriously, if they ever were (random is random).
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2014-08-13 12:06:55 UTC
Owen Levanth wrote:
I'm not even sure I can build that many T2-battleships!


I'll be very happy to take some of those off your hands if you can't use them all... Blink
Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
#12 - 2014-08-13 12:22:55 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Owen Levanth wrote:
I'm not even sure I can build that many T2-battleships!


I'll be very happy to take some of those off your hands if you can't use them all... Blink


Hah, you wish. Lol Those will be built, just very slowly.
Hakan MacTrew
Konrakas Forged
Solyaris Chtonium
#13 - 2014-08-13 13:07:37 UTC
Wormholers have Bob, Inventors have Statistics...

I delivered 20 jobs the other day, average probability was about 35%, all failed. Day before, Same job types and numbers 3 succeses.

Thats probability, nothing is set in stone. It's like complaining at the casino because the law of averages says you should have won.

Friends
Qoi
Exert Force
#14 - 2014-08-13 14:50:34 UTC
I assume you forged your numbers, but 20 out of 100 for p=0.5 is indeed extremely unlucky.

Quote:

In[1]: Probability[x <= 20, x \[Distributed] BinomialDistribution[100, 0.5]]

Out[1]: 5.57954*10^-10


And your expectation of 40 to 60 is actually pretty good

Quote:

In[2]: Probability[x >= 40 && x <= 60, x \[Distributed] BinomialDistribution[100, 0.5]]

Out[2]: 0.9648

http://eve-industry.org
Lady Zarrina
New Eden Browncoats
#15 - 2014-08-13 15:05:11 UTC
I have noticed my invention percents seem rather low. Especially my drones?? I know how random works, and I am willing to give it a few more months (I have had real bad streaks last what seems weeks). But, if enough people are seeing bad numbers perhaps something did change?

I really expect it is just the human mind looking for a pattern, especially after a significant event. But, I'm willing to give it a nod so hopefully CCP makes sure nothing nasty happened :)

EVE: All about Flying Frisky and Making Iskie
Ginger Barbarella
#16 - 2014-08-13 15:15:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Ginger Barbarella
1) WTF does "my skills are 50%" mean? Your related Science skills necessary for Drone invention are L2 or L3?
2) Invention appears to be working fine from where I sit. No major change noticed here at all, including with drone invention.
3) inb4 random is random

You didn't say one word about your relevant skills or the drones you were attempting to invention, but I'l go ahead and do some testing today for you. Given that my R&D alts are all L4 and L5 in relevant skills, I'll go ahead anyway. I'll repost here with my results later today. FYI, I typically have well over 50% success rates *overall*, both before and after Crius.

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Team Bidders
Doomheim
#17 - 2014-08-13 15:20:20 UTC
The random number generator used by EVE seems to be very uneven. I once installed 11 invention jobs with 50% success chance. All 11 jobs failed. It has actually happened to me twice during my two-year "inventor career".

Now, did I ever have all success on 11 jobs? No, never, ever.

It seems to me that the probability is far from Normal Distribution and kind of skewed towards invention fails.
Veinnail
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#18 - 2014-08-13 15:21:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Veinnail
i've seen roughly the same as before crius. I think you just rolled some unlucky dice bro. dont be sads.

had 6/8 successful on hull inventions yesterday, its just like that.
Ginger Barbarella
#19 - 2014-08-13 15:30:22 UTC
Team Bidders wrote:
The random number generator used by EVE seems to be very uneven. I once installed 11 invention jobs with 50% success chance. All 11 jobs failed. It has actually happened to me twice during my two-year "inventor career".

Now, did I ever have all success on 11 jobs? No, never, ever.

It seems to me that the probability is far from Normal Distribution and kind of skewed towards invention fails.


I think CCP uses the NSA's RNG they sold to RSA for $10mil

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Cyniac
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#20 - 2014-08-13 16:12:03 UTC
Macewind Kenobii wrote:
I invented drones My skills are 50%

I Run 100 jobs and only 20 bpc t2 susessful!!!!!! Shocked

before fuking crius patch i run 100 jobs and 40 - 60 bpc t2 sussesful

ccp first nerf loot missions,loot dedcomplex
now invention
Next nerf ? Maybe incursions? Wh?

Heyyy ccp you patchs are scrap...



Heh...

Here is the outcome of my invention runs so far on Crius (Base invention chance 37%)

6/20
14/20 Shocked
8/20
9/20
3/20

Overall 40/100 which is a bit higher than I expected. It's still a small sample but if I had looked only at my last run I would be screaming bloody murder looking at my second run looks like Crius is really my friend.

Nothing has changed. Random is random.

However by all means, stop inventing now!
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